Subject: POLITICO's Morning Score: Ryan sends $3.4 million to NRCC — Shortlist named for Sessions' Senate seat — Mook talks polling misses in MTP Daily interview
From: "Morning Score" <[email-masked]>
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Date: Fri, 03 Feb 2017 09:02:33 -0600
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By Elena Schneider | 02/03/2017 10:00 AM EDT

With Scott Bland 

The following newsletter is an abridged version of Campaign Pro's Morning Score. For an earlier morning read on exponentially more races - and for a more comprehensive aggregation of the day's most important campaign news - sign up for Campaign Pro today. (http://www.politicopro.com/proinfo)

CASH DASH - "Ryan starts 2017 with fundraising bang," by POLITICO's Rachael Bade: "Speaker Paul Ryan raised $3.4 million for House Republicans last month, starting the year with a better fundraising haul than he had in January 2016 despite the lack of an imminent election. The Wisconsin Republican transferred about $3.3 million from his campaign committee and $105,000 from his leadership PAC to the NRCC last month. That's the fifth-largest monthly transfer from a GOP speaker to the congressional campaign arm. The pace suggests Ryan will continue his record-shattering fundraising efforts to protect the House GOP majority." Full story. 

THE POST-MORTEM CONTINUES - Robby Mook speaks about what he's analyzing from Clinton's loss in interview with Chuck Todd: On Thursday's MTP Daily on MSNBC, Hillary Clinton campaign manager Robby Mook spoke at length about what happened during the 2016 race, what he wished he had done differently, and what lessons he and Democrats could draw from the campaign, particularly from the volatility and, ultimately, the unreliability of many polls of the race.

- Mook: "There's something going on, and we're trying to work on this right now, where either we are weighting the surveys incorrectly, so assuming one group is more likely to turn out than they are, and the other is it might be who we're getting on the phone [non-response bias]. ... The other thing that was special about this election is, boy, did the numbers move around a lot. I wish in retrospect that I had seen that and said that's a reason, at every juncture, to always plan for the worst scenario. But that's hard when you're 10 points up in Michigan ... until that Comey letter, we were 9-10 points up pretty consistently." See the full MTP Daily segment here.

APPOINTMENT VIEWING - Bentley names his shortlist for Sessions seat: Gov. Robert Bentley released a shortlist of potential candidates to replace Sen. Jeff Sessions, including Rep. Robert Aderholt, Department of Economic and Commerce Director Jim Byard, former state Rep. Perry Hooper Jr., state Sen. Del Marsh, state Rep. Connie Rowe and Attorney General Luther Strange, per Decatur Daily. Strange's presence on the list "raised some eyebrows because Strange in November told a House committee to stop its impeachment investigation of Bentley." The report continued: "[Strange] said his office was doing 'related work.' His office has refused comment on that work. Bentley has said he doesn't know
 of an investigation by the attorney general."

2018 WATCH - Brian Kemp drops a "strong hint" in Georgia: Republican Secretary of State Brian Kemp told business leaders Thursday that he "wants to use his 'unique experience to help lead our state during the next decade,'" The Atlanta Journal Constitution reported. Republican Lt. Gov. Casey Cagle is also expected to enter the open race to replace Gov. Nathan Deal, just as House Minority Leader Stacey Abrams, former state Sen. Jason Carter and, now, former acting Attorney General Sally Yates are all mentioned as potential Democratic candidates. 

- Jack Latvala "sets sights" on 2018 governor's race in Florida: Republican state Sen. Jack Latvala started plotting last fall for a gubernatorial run, per The Tampa Bay Times. Latvala said that even though he's seriously considering a statewide bid, he won't make "any decision until at least May," the Times reported. "I love this state. Why shouldn't I think about running for something else?" Latvala said. Gov. Rick Scott is term-limited, and the open race is attracting a crowded Republican field.

Days until the 2017 election: 277.

Days until the 2018 election: 641.

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AIR WAR - Gorsuch ad in swing states: Judicial Crisis Network released its TV ad that is part of a $2 million initial ad buy to back Trump's Supreme Court nominee, which will start airing in Missouri, Indiana, North Dakota, Colorado and Washington, D.C. The ad features Jane Nitze, a former Obama administration attorney who clerked for Judge Neil Gorsuch, who says that she doesn't "think folks on the left should be concerned about Judge Gorsuch becoming a Supreme Court Justice." She added that she'll approach "each case the same" and "will have a great deal respect for folks on all sides of the ideological spectrum." Watch the ad here. 

BEEFING UP IN THE STATES - DCCC adds early staff on the ground: "The DCCC will hire 20 full-time organizing staffers and run digital ads in targeted districts across the country, in an early bid to draft off the energy of grassroots protests against President Donald Trump and redirect it against House Republicans in two years. The program, called "March Into '18," will target 20 districts, many of which dot suburban communities across the country and some of which were not targeted in 2016, though Trump fared poorly in them compared to past GOP nominees." Full story.

EARLY POLLING DATA - "Gillespie, Northam are their parties' front-runners for [Virginia] governor in CNU poll," by The Richmond Times-Dispatch's Andrew Cain: "An early poll from Christopher Newport University in the governor's race confirms that Democratic Lt. Gov. Ralph S. Northam and Republican Ed Gillespie are their parties' front runners four months ahead of the June primary. Among Democrats, Northam received 26 percent of the vote to 15 percent for former Rep. Tom Perriello, D-5th. Gillespie, former chairman of the Republican National Committee, has a wide lead among the GOP field, with 33 percent to 9 percent for state Sen. Frank W. Wagner, R-Virginia Beach; 7 percent for Corey
 Stewart, chairman of the Prince William Board of County Supervisors and 1 percent for Denver Riggleman, co-owner of Silverback Distillery in Nelson County." Full story. 

SOONER OR LATER WE'RE TALKING ABOUT REAL MONEY - "Record $466 million spent on California ballot measures," by The Associated Press' Sophia Bollag: "Campaign committees raised a record $466 million to influence proposals on the 2016 ballot in California from legalizing marijuana to limiting prescription drug prices, according to an Associated Press analysis of campaign finance documents. The tally for more than 80 committees supporting or opposing 17 measures on the state's November ballot surpassed the previous record of $438 million raised for ballot proposals in 2008." Full story.

ADMINISTRATION SPEED READ - "Trump picks up the phone, sets off diplomatic chaos," by POLITICO's Michael Crowley, Nolan D. McCaskill and Louis Nelson: "Donald Trump is sowing diplomatic chaos around the world just two weeks into his presidency, as he feuds with world leaders and defends an unpredictable style that has alarmed friends and foes alike. Foreign diplomats and State Department officials expressed shock Thursday over reports that Trump lashed out in phone calls at the leaders of Mexico and Australia, whose prime minister, a close U.S. ally with whom presidents rarely argue, Trump reportedly hung up on after a surprise haranguing. At the same time, Trump pleased Republicans,
 Israeli officials and some powerful Arab leaders by pressing a tough line on Iran, upon which Trump is reportedly set to impose new sanctions as early as Friday. A top Iranian official on Thursday mocked an "inexperienced" Trump for his 'groundless ranting.'" Full story. 

- "Trump's enemies within," by POLITICO Magazine's John F. Harris and Daniel Lippman: "Donald Trump, a self-professed Nixon admirer, is learning this history lesson about the presidency in real time: His most dangerous enemies are people who ostensibly work for him. Modern presidents always feel hectored by the news media and harried by opposition legislators. But mortal threats to their power typically come from hostile forces inside the executive branch. The phenomenon has rarely been on more vivid display, with Trump buffeted by an unprecedented barrage of leaks about his decision-making and direct challenges to the decisions themselves-a new example coming almost daily-from within the
 permanent bureaucracy of government." Full story.

- "Trump Tells Israel to Hold Off on Building New Settlements," by The New York Times' Peter Baker: "President Trump, who has made support for Israel a cornerstone of his foreign policy, shifted gears on Thursday and for the first time warned the government of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to hold off new settlement construction. ...The statement resembled those issued routinely by previous administrations of both parties for decades, but Mr. Trump has positioned himself as an unabashed ally of Israel and until now had never questioned Mr. Netanyahu's approach. Mr. Trump picked as his ambassador to Israel a financial supporter of West Bank settlement, and he harshly criticized former
 President Barack Obama in December for not blocking a United Nations resolution condemning settlements." Full story.

CODA - QUOTE OF THE DAY: "I don't want to open my personal checkbook to say here's all my checks. I'm told I don't have to do it," said Ohio House Speaker Cliff Rosenberger, who's renting a "luxury condo" in Columbus, owned by Ginni Ragan, "an heiress who has contributed more than $1.5 million to the Ohio Republicans' campaigns since 2010," The Dayton Daily News reported.

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