Subject: POLITICO's Morning Score: Red-state Democrats stuck in the middle on Gorsuch — Estes wins KS-04 GOP nomination for Pompeo's seat — RNC tests Trump’s fundraising prowess
From: "Morning Score" <[email-masked]>
To: <[email-masked]>
Date: Fri, 10 Feb 2017 09:09:59 -0600
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By Elena Schneider | 02/10/2017 10:07 AM EDT

With Kevin Robillard

The following newsletter is an abridged version of Campaign Pro's Morning Score. For an earlier morning read on exponentially more races - and for a more comprehensive aggregation of the day's most important campaign news - sign up for Campaign Pro today. (http://www.politicopro.com/proinfo)

SPECIAL ELECTION RESULTS - Treasurer Ron Estes wins KS-04 GOP convention nomination: "Treasurer Ron Estes has won the GOP Party convention's nomination to replace Rep. Mike Pompeo in Kansas' 4th District, beating back Alan Cobb, a Trump adviser. On the second ballot, Estes won with 66 votes - 64 votes were required. Cobb received 43 votes and former Rep. Todd Tiahrt received 17 votes. Two other candidates, radio host Joseph Ashby and attorney George Bruce, both received 10 votes on the first ballot but dropped off for the second ballot. Estes, who was one of the first candidates to enter the race, was an early favorite. But Cobb gained some momentum in the final days, touting his connection
 to the Trump White House as a part of his pitch to delegates." Full story.

ROCK AND A HARD PLACE - "Red-state Democrats stuck in the middle on Gorsuch," by Campaign Pro's Maggie Severns: "Progressives hoping to thwart President Donald Trump's Supreme Court nominee are lurching into action - and they may end up galvanizing their anti-Trump grass roots against red-state Democratic senators along the way. The left doesn't have a plan to match conservatives' meticulously organized, well-funded strategy for promoting Judge Neil Gorsuch, which includes an initial $10 million ad buy from the Judicial Crisis Network and the ground network of groups like the Koch-backed Concerned Veterans for America, which is for the first time involving itself in a Supreme Court battle.
 But progressive groups see a surge of activity in states like Montana and Missouri that they hope, with the right information and structure for budding activists, could grow into the biggest grass-roots effort Democrats have ever mounted around a Supreme Court nomination, in which Republicans have typically been better organized."

- "So far progressive groups based in red states have not indicated they're ready to wage war on their Democratic senators should they decide to vote in favor of Gorsuch. But the PCCC, which says it has 1 million members, recently fired off a warning shot directed at Delaware Sen. Chris Coons after he signaled some openness to Gorsuch, urging the senator to 'fight with backbone.' Meanwhile, four red-state Democratic senators - Indiana's Joe Donnelly, Montana's Jon Tester, North Dakota's Heidi Heitkamp and West Virginia's Joe Manchin - met with Trump at the White House on Thursday to discuss the nomination. Manchin has strongly signaled he'll be open to supporting Trump's nominee, while
 other key Democrats have said they'll carefully consider Gorsuch and are now walking a line between their fulminating party and their Republican constituents." Full story.

CASH RACE - "Trump's thumbs-up proved to be fundraising gold," by Campaign Pro's Scott Bland: "The more often Donald Trump gave his supporters two thumbs-up in 2016, the more they cracked open their wallets. That's one of many lessons the Republican National Committee's digital experiment team learned in 2016 while testing and retesting everything about the Trump campaign's website, down to the color of the "donate" buttons, according to a new report prepared by the RNC. The report estimates that the testing program run by the RNC's Performance Optimization and Experiments Team brought in over $30 million extra to the Trump campaign by boosting its digital engagement and fundraising. ...
 The best practices included using pictures of Trump with his thumbs up above practically all else for fundraising asks on his campaign website." Full story .

Days until the 2017 election: 270.

Days until the 2018 election: 634.

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CHESS MOVES - Bracy mulling primary challenge to Bill Nelson: "Democratic state Sen. Randolph Bracy is considering a 2018 run for the U.S. Senate seat currently held by fellow Democrat, Sen. Bill Nelson," The Florida Times-Union reported. "'I'm considering it; I'll leave it there,' Bracy told the newspaper. Bracy, a 39-year-old business development consultant from Orlando, is chairman of the Criminal Justice Committee in the Florida Senate. While Bracy is considering a primary challenge against Nelson, Gov. Rick Scott is thought to be in the hunt for Nelson's seat himself. On the prospect of a Scott Senate bid, Nelson has said, 'I'm prepared.'" 

- Rep. Tim Ryan told The Cleveland Plain Dealer that he will decide in the "next couple of weeks" whether or not he will run for governor. 

- Rep. Diane Black made the rounds with top GOP leaders in the state, "amid widespread speculation" that the congresswoman is considering a gubernatorial run, The Tennessean reported. 

UNITY CALL - Mike DeWine picks up a key endorsement: Ohio Attorney General Mike DeWine, who hasn't officially announced his gubernatorial bid, got an important endorsement this week, according to cleveland.com. Columbiana County Republican Party Chairman David Johnson, "an influential GOP leader in the state, declared his support for DeWine in a letter sent to other Republicans this week. One reason why Johnson's backing is significant: He was a vocal supporter of Jane Timken's takeover of the Ohio Republican Party last month. Timken, with assistance from Trump and his political team, unseated Matt Borges, Gov. John Kasich's handpicked chairman. DeWine is the only gubernatorial prospect who
 ultimately supported Borges' bid to keep the job." Full story.

POLLING DATA - "Murphy and Guadagno lead primaries for governor, but not by much," by POLITICO New Jersey's Matt Friedman: "Democratic gubernatorial candidate Phil Murphy and Republican gubernatorial candidate Kim Guadagno hold leads in their respective primary fields, but not commanding ones, according to a new poll released Thursday. The Fairleigh Dickinson University poll of 839 registered voters shows half of voters on each side undecided in the race for governor. Murphy, who has consolidated Democratic Party support across the state and has already spent millions on his campaign and the nearly two-year run-up to it, garners 17 percent support - a tie with 'someone else.' State Sen.
 Raymond Lesniak is the second named candidate behind Murphy for the Democratic nomination, at 7 percent. He's followed by Assemblyman John Wisniewski (6 percent) and former Clinton administration Treasury Department official Jim Johnson (2 percent). Fifty percent say they don't know who they support." Full story.

FRESH START? - "DCCC considers consulting changes, names leadership team," by POLITICO's Heather Caygle and Kevin Robillard: "DCCC Chairman Ben Ray Lujan told House Democrats on Thursday that the campaign committee is conducting a review of its polling and media-buying vendors with an eye toward potentially making changes to the consulting roster in 2018. 'As part of the polling reboot, we've asked pollsters to share with us what they got wrong, what they got right, where their polling was off, where their polling was on,' Lujan said. 'And then ask themselves where their polling was wrong, did they make the wrong assumptions or was their data just bad? Part of that analysis is going to
 result in us having a conversation where we want to make it loud and clear that unreliable pollsters will not be invited back to the DCCC.' ... The DCCC also named 20 members to its leadership team on Thursday morning, including Washington's Denny Heck as the group's recruitment chair." Full story.

- "Texas Democrats begin to plot out strategy for 2018 midterms," by The Texas Tribune's Abby Livingston and Patrick Svitek: "According to over a dozen interviews with Texas Democratic insiders and national Democrats with ties to the state, the meeting included some of the party's most well-known figures from Texas including former Secretary of Housing and Urban Development Juli&aacute;n Castro, his twin brother, U.S. Rep. Joaquin Castro of San Antonio, Texas Democratic Party Finance Chairman Mike Collier, former state Sen. Wendy Davis, state Democratic Chairman Gilberto Hinojosa, U.S. Rep. Beto O'Rourke of El Paso, former Houston Mayor Annise Parker and state Reps. Rafael Anchia of Dallas
 and Chris Turner of Grand Prairie. Their main agenda: mapping out a strategy for the 2018 midterm elections. The expectations in the room were not soaring but cautiously hopeful. That optimism was mostly rooted around one person: President Donald Trump." Full story.

MAKING IT OFFICIAL - "Alabama Attorney General Luther Strange to replace Sessions in the Senate," by POLITICO's Burgess Everett: "Alabama Attorney General Luther Strange will replace Jeff Sessions in the Senate just hours after Sessions was confirmed as attorney general, according to a statement from Gov. Robert Bentley. Bentley formalized the announcement on Thursday morning and Strange will be quickly sworn into the Senate after a press conference in Alabama. Strange, who had reportedly investigated Bentley for alleged sex scandals, had announced he would run for Sessions' seat regardless of whether he received the appointment." Full story. 

PERSONNEL CHANGES - Morrisey takes over RAGA chairmanship: With Strange joining Congress' upper chamber, he has to give up his chairmanship of the Republican Attorneys General Association. West Virginia Attorney General Patrick Morrisey will take over the group, per a statement from the group. (Morrisey could soon join Strange in D.C. He's a potential candidate against Democratic Sen. Joe Manchin.)

- McCain campaign manager starts consulting firm: John McCain's 2016 campaign manager, Ryan O'Daniel, is launching a new government affairs and campaign consulting firms. The firm, Intrepid Public Affairs, will focus on using campaign tactics, like targeted digital and direct mail, to influence policy outcomes. 

ADMINISTRATION SPEED READ - "Trump vexed by challenges, scale of government," by POLITICO's Alex Isenstadt, Kenneth P. Vogel and Josh Dawsey: "Being president is harder than Donald Trump thought, according to aides and allies who say that he's growing increasingly frustrated with the challenges of running the massive federal bureaucracy. In interviews, nearly two dozen people who've spent time with Trump in the three weeks since his inauguration said that his mood has careened between surprise and anger as he's faced the predictable realities of governing, from congressional delays over his Cabinet nominations and legal fights holding up his aggressive initiatives to staff in-fighting and
 leaks. The administration's rocky opening days have been a setback for a president who, as a billionaire businessman, sold himself to voters as being uniquely qualified to fix what ailed the nation. Yet it has become apparent, say aides and allies who work with Trump, most of whom requested anonymity to describe the inner workings of the White House, that the transition from overseeing a family business has been tough on Trump. He often asks simple questions about policies, proposals and personnel. And, when discussions get bogged down in details, the president has been known to quickly change the subject - to 'seem in control at all times,' one senior government official said - or direct
 questions about details to his chief strategist Steve Bannon, his son-in-law Jared Kushner or House Speaker Paul Ryan." Full story. 

"Appeals court panel rules unanimously against Trump travel ban," by POLITICO's Josh Gerstein: "A federal appeals court on Thursday bluntly rejected President Donald Trump's attempt to revive his controversial travel ban executive order, giving no ground under unusual public pressure from the president himself. A three-judge panel of the 9th Circuit Court of Appeals on Thursday unanimously turned down the Justice Department's request to lift a Seattle-based judge's restraining order blocking authorities from carrying out the limits Trump sought to impose on travel to the U.S. by citizens of seven majority-Muslim countries and by refugees from across the globe." Full story.

- "Gorsuch's Trump criticism might help his confirmation chances," by POLITICO's Seung Min Kim and Josh Dawsey: "Supreme Court nominee Neil Gorsuch's surprise admission in a private meeting that he was 'disheartened' and 'demoralized' over President Donald Trump's attacks on the judiciary appeared carefully choreographed to demonstrate his independence from the person who chose him. The strategy may be working. Some Senate Democrats who will play pivotal roles in whether Gorsuch gets installed at the Supreme Court later this year said Thursday that it may help his prospects - or at least that it didn't hurt. And Republicans argue that Gorsuch, with his comments privately rebuking Trump, is
 giving Democrats little reason to oppose the 10th Circuit judge as he vies to replace the late Justice Antonin Scalia." Full story.

- "White House leans into Trump Inc.," by POLITICO's Isaac Arnsdorf, Josh Dawsey and Ben White: "Just four weeks after Donald Trump stood beside a table stacked high with papers trumpeting his plan to separate himself from his business empire, the president and his family and advisers have not made much effort to truly split their business activities and their official duties. His Palm Beach club Mar-a-Lago doubled its initiation fee, while Sean Spicer, his press secretary, has labeled it "the Winter White House." The CEO of his hotels business pondered a threefold expansion. Foreign dignitaries are flocking to his Washington hotel. He urged British officials to scuttle a wind farm that
 would obstruct the view from his golf course. Lawyers for first lady Melania Trump claimed in a New York State libel suit that a Daily Mail article about her cost her the chance 'to launch a broad-based commercial brand in multiple product categories, each of which could have garnered multimillion-dollar business relationships.' ... On Thursday, senior adviser Kellyanne Conway, standing in front of the White House seal for a Fox News interview, told people to buy from first daughter Ivanka Trump's fashion line after Nordstrom yanked the products from their stores. Ethics lawyers called it a clear violation of the executive branch's regulation against officials endorsing companies and
 products." Full story.

CODA - QUOTE OF THE DAY: "What son of a bitch did that?" That was former Sen. Alan Simpson upon being told he was no longer the tallest senator in modern history, Roll Call reported. Simpson - who was 6 feet, 7 inches, but now he's "shrinking" - lost his title to Sen.-elect Luther Strange, who's been appointed to replace Attorney General Jeff Sessions. Strange is 6 feet, 9 inches.

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