Subject: Axios AM: Mike's Top 10 — We could lose Cold War II — Ignatius warns of "post-West era" — Real hazards of virtual reality — Happy-hour helper
From: "Mike Allen" <[email-masked]>
To: <[email-masked]>
Date: Fri, 24 Feb 2017 06:12:08 -0500 (EST)

Presented by BP:

We could lose Cold War II — Ignatius warns of "post-West era" =E2�� Real hazards of virtual reality — Happy-hour helper

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Presented By BP

Axios AM

By Mike Allen = ·Feb 24, 2017

1 big thing: We could lose Cold War II

Cover of next week's New Yorker, by Barry Blitt

A DEFCON warning in next week's issue of The New Yorker=... "Active Measures" — by Evan Osnos in=D.C., Editor David Remnick in NYC and Joshua Yaffa in Moscow — on =ears of the neutering of NATO and the decoupling of America from European =ecurity: "If that happens, it gives Putin all kinds of opportunities."
=p>Strobe Talbott, who was President Bill Clinton's leadin= adviser on Russia and the region, and now is Brookings President: not only that we are going to lose a=second Cold War — or have a redo and lose — but that the l=ss will be largely because of a perverse pal-ship, the almost unfathomable=respect that Trump has for Putin."

Why it matters ... T=lbott, on the consequences of "losing" such a co=flict: "The not quite apocalyptic answer is that it is going to take years=and years and years to get back to where we — we the United States=and we the champions of the liberal world order — were as recently=as five years ago."

"An e=en graver scenario, Talbott said, would be an 'unravellin=,' in which we revert to 'a dog-eat-dog world with constant insta=ility and conflict even if it doesn't go nuclear. But, with the proliferat=on of nuclear powers, it is easy to see it going that way, too.'"

The fantasy of a Hillary Clinton senior adviser: "[W]hat if =arack Obama had gone to the Oval Office, or the East Room of the White Hou=e, and said, 'I'm speaking to you tonight to inform you that the United St=tes is under attack. The Russian government at the highest levels is tryin= to influence our most precious asset, our democracy, and I'm not going to=let it happen.'"

Cover Story: "In a =iff on the magazine's first cover, from 1925, by Rea Irvin, Blitt imagines=a future in which The New Yorker's dandy mascot has become Eustac= Vladimirovich Tilley and the lepidopteran under scrutiny is none other th=n a stunned Donald Trump."

David Ignatius =olumn in WashPost: "We may be missing the forest for the trees in the =ussia story: The Kremlin's attempt to meddle in the 2016 U.S. presidential=election is part of a much bigger tale of Russian covert action — in which Donald Trump's campaign was perhaps a tool, witti=g or unwitting."

"This secret manipulation, if unchecked, coul= pose an 'existential threat' to Western democracy, argues Gérard Ara=d, France's ambassador to Washington."

"If the United States and i=s allies don't resist, a post-West era may indeed be next."

Will be big on Sunday shows ... "FBI refused White House requ=st to knock down recent Trump-Russia stories" — CNN: "Priebus later reached out again to [FBI Deputy Director A=drew] McCabe and to FBI Director James Comey asking for the FBI to at leas= talk to reporters on background to dispute the stories."

2. Coming attractions

Coming Monday, from VERY well-known names in Democratic=politics, progressive activism, and academia, an effort to rebut Trump Adm=nistration tweets, statements and actions in real time:

"@ShadowingTrump is a 'Shadow Cabinet' of policy experts deb=nking POTUS 45 and his appointees ... Sort of an online 'Justice League.' =.. [W]e'll be a comprehensive, one-portal stop of 'Citizen Secretaries' =E2�� ex-officials and scholars who will comment agency-by-agency ... o= issues both in headlines & within the bureaucracy."

Fro= the pitch: "Please follow us on twitter ... unless you think eve=ything is ok."

The "Shadow Cabinet" Twitter feed i= locked until Monday.

3. Obamacare getting MORE popular

Andrew Witherspoon / Axios

David Nather points out that a Kaiser Family Foundation =oll, out today, is "the latest evidence that the repeal threat is making O=amacare more popular":

KFF's monthly tracking =oll shows the highest favorable rating the program has had since 2010, the=year Obama signed it.

"It's not great — j=st 48 percent, which says a lot about how low the approval ratings were be=ore. But it's clearly higher than the unfavorable ratings for the first ti=e in more than a year."

A message from BP

How is BP contributing to America?

BP invests more in the U.S. than anywhere else, and over the past 10 yea=s no energy company has invested more in America.

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4. Happy-hour helper: Stuff to talk about

"Subway Ridership Declines in New York. Is Uber to Blam=?" by N.Y. Times' Emma Fitzsimmons: "[R]idership dropped last y=ar [for the first time since 2009], and transit officials say the rise of =ber and other car service apps may be partly to blame ... Weekday ridershi= was at its highest level since 1948, but weekend ridership fell about 3 p=rcent, suggesting that New Yorkers and tourists were finding other ways to=get around."

"[I]f passengers c=ntinue to abandon the subway, it could have broa= implications for the city and worsen traffic congestion. ... [T]he system=is still teeming with more than six million riders on some weekdays. ... B=s ridership also dropped last year — part of a downward trend over=the last decade."

"Few homes available for millenn=als ready to buy" — WashPos= front-pager by Kathy Orton: "[A]s millennials find better-paying jobs= start families and begin searching for their first homes, they're encount=ring an unfortunate reality: Just as they're finally ready to buy, the hou=ing market has the fewest homes available for sale on record. And those th=t are for sale are increasingly priced at values inaccessible to first-tim= buyers."

Why it matters: "Overall millennials=are falling behind other generations in homeownership, with first-time hom= buyers, who usually consist of 40 percent of the market, stuck at 34 perc=nt.That could become damaging to this generation's future prosperi=y."

5. Things you wouldn't see on Obama's desk

Jonathan Ernst / Reuters

Papers — and cola!

This fascinat=ng photo was taken during Trump's Oval Office interview yesterda= with Reuters' Steve Holland. Key point:

"Trump ... spoke po=itively about a border adjustment tax being pushed by Republicans=in Congress as a way to boost exports, but he did not specifically endorse=the proposal."

Trump's "most approving languag= to date on the proposal": "It could lead to a lot more jobs in the United=States."

Trump sent conflicting signals about his=position ... in separate media interviews in January, saying in one interv=ew that it was 'too complicated' and in another that it was still on the t=ble.

Sean Spicer also came to the defense of bord=r adjustment on Thursday, disputing the claim that it could lead to higher=consumer prices.

Stocks of retailers, which could be hurt by border adjustment, weakened on Wall Street after =rump's remarks."

Trump on corporate tax cut: "We're going to have a corporate tax cut ... anywhere from 15 to =0 percent (as a target for the corporate tax rate).

The ba=kdrop ... "Manufacturing CEOs Push Border Tax During Meeting With=Trump" — Bl=omberg: "Just after meeting with the CEOs of Dow Chemical Co., General=Electric Co. and other industrial giants, the president told Reuters he wo=ld 'support a form of tax on the border."

6. Bannon vows "deconstruction of the administrative state"

Buddy picture: Steve Bannon (left) and White House Chief of Staff Reince=Priebus at CPAC / AP's Susan Walsh

Steve Banon, Trump's chief strategist, made it clear du=ing an appearance yesterday at the Conservative Political Action Conferenc= in Oxon Hill, Md., that he hasn't softened one bit:

On=the West Wing suite he shares with Priebus: "I have a little thin= called the war room. He has a fireplace with nice sofas."

"[I]f you look at the opposition party and how they=portray the campaign, how they portrayed the transition and now they're po=traying the administration, it's always wrong. ... They're corporatist, gl=balist media that are adamantly opposed — adamantly opposed to an =conomic nationalist agenda like Donald Trump has."

On the Trump administration's three "lines of work": "The fi=st is kind of national security and sovereignty and that's your intelligen=e, the Defense Department, Homeland Security. The second ... is what I ref=r to as economic nationalism and that is Wilbur Ross at Commerce, Steven M=uchin at Treasury, [Robert] Lighthizer [nominated as Trade Rep], Peter Nav=rro [Director of Trade and Industrial Policy], Stephen Miller — th=se people that are rethinking how we're gonna reconstruct ... our trade ar=angements around the world. The third, broadly, line of work is what is de=onstruction of the administrative state."

On his personali=y: "I can run a little hot on occasions."

On how =rump fits into the conservative movement: "[T]here's a new politi=al order that's being formed out of this. ... [T]he center core of what we=believe: that we're a nation with an economy, not an economy just in some =lobal marketplace with open borders, but we are a nation with a culture an= a reason for being. And I think that is what unites us and I think that i= what is going to unite this movement going forward."

=ice President Pence at CPAC last night: " [T]he president and I h=ve become good friends. ... Now, some people have remarked that we're a li=tle bit different. You know, I'm a small town guy. He's big city. I'm Midw=st; he's Manhattan Island. He's known for his bigger than life personality= his charm, and his charisma. And I'm, like, not." Laughter.

7. The family business

Ivanka Trump talks to Michelle DeLaune of the National Center for Missin= and Exploited Children (AP's Pablo Martinez Monsivais)

In a week when Ivanka and Jared Kushner have been =howing their clout on a host of issues (including yesterday's presiden=ial listening session on domestic and international human trafficking), BB= China Editor Carrie Gracie has an intriguing connect-the-dots on help the family has given in smoothi=g over relations with China:

"=efore Mr Trump ... or senior members of his admi=istration talked to key players in China, and while China's internet was f=ll of mutterings about why Mr Trump had delivered no goodwill message over=Chinese New Year, Beijing's man in Washington, Ambassador Cui Tiankai, def=ly reached out to President Trump's daughter Ivanka.

"She bridged the official divide with a wel=-publicised appearance at a Chinese New Year function at Beijing's embassy=in Washington.

"Ivanka's husban= Jared Kushner also has lines of communication to Beijing through=his Chinese business partners. And President Trump's other daughter Tiffan= made a point of sitting in the front row of the New York Fashion Week sho= of Chinese designer Taoray Wang."

8. Axios interview

Dan Primack interviews=Jack Dorsey, best known as co-founder and CEO of Twitter: "[B=ut it's his other company ― Square ― that set Wall Street =ongues wagging this week with better-than-expected earnings ... closed tra=ing yesterday at an all-time high.

Sign of our times Does profitability matter?

Dorsey: "It's important to get to that milestone= and it's one we've really set ourselves against. It's important to build = company where you have control, so you can choose to either invest in the=growth of the company or more in profitability. So we're building somethin= that can really reach that level."

9. Tucker's restoration

The Atlantic

Tucker Carlson ("The Bow-Tied Bard of Po=ulism"), whose new 9 p.m. show on Fox has been a ratings and echo-cham=er hit, to McKay Coppins, now a staff writer for The Atlantic:

"The SAT 50 years ago pulled a lo= of smart people out of every little town in America and funneled them int= a small number of elite institutions, where they married each other, had =ids, and moved to an even smaller number of elite neighborhoods. We create= the most effective meritocracy ever. ...

"But the problem with the meritocracy ... [is that it]=leeches all the empathy out of your society … The second y=u think that all your good fortune is a product of your virtue, you become=highly judgmental, lacking empathy, totally without self-awareness, arroga=t, stupid — I mean all the stuff that our ruling class is="

A keeper: "He recalls receiving a text message on=election night from a stunned Democratic friend declaring his intention to=flee the country with his family. Carlson replied by asking if he could us= their pool while they were gone."

One quibble: McK=y calls The Monocle, where he had lunch with Tucker, "upscale" when he mea=t "old-school."

10. 1 fun thing

"Virtual-Reality Goggles Come With a Hitch: Real Realit=" -- Wall Street Journal =-Hed by Cat Zakrzewski: "[E]arly adopters are encountering ... challen=es, from coffee spills to missed train stops to nausea and 'goggle face' =E2�� marks that the snug headsets leave around the eyes after extended=use."

"The popularity of Pokémon Go last =ummer showed the dangers of operating in the real world while staring at '=ugmented reality' on a smartphone. Players sprained ankles, walked into fi=e hydrants and fell off bikes while their eyes were glued to their phone s=reens."

AR vs. VR: "Augmented reality puts digita= objects on images of the real world — so it looks like a Pok�=A9mon character is standing in your driveway. Virtual reality cuts out the=real world entirely. Such full immersion can be so intense that users expe=ience motion sickness or fear of falling."

A message from BP

How is BP contributing to America?

BP invests more in the U.S. than anywhere else, and over the past 10 yea=s no energy company has invested more in America.

Learn more abou= our U.S. impact.

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