Subject: Axios AM: Mike's Top 10 — White House bowling — Bush's new book — Buffett bullish — Trump's tweets this morning — Key storyline for Oscars
From: "Mike Allen" <[email-masked]>
To: <[email-masked]>
Date: Sun, 26 Feb 2017 09:12:13 -0500 (EST)

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White House bowling — Bush's new book — Buffett bullish =— Trump's tweets this morning — Key storyline for Oscars<=p>

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Axios AM

By Mike Allen = ·Feb 26, 2017

1 big thing: Trump's Hill charm offensive

Trump is flanked by Democratic senators Heidi Heitkamp (N.D.) and Joe M=nchin (W.Va.) in the Roosevelt Room on Feb. 9. Behind them are White House=legislative-affairs leaders Rick Dearborn (left) and Marc Short / Photo by=AP's Evan Vucci

Rusty Capitol Hill aides — Republicans and Demo=rats — shed suit jackets and bowl a few frames, before eating pizz= and pouring soda out of two-liter bottles.

They're at the =hite House, in the basement of the Eisenhower Executive Office Bu=lding, as part of an intense effort by the Trump White House to make amend= with lawmakers and their staffs — who felt ignored for most of t=e Obama years, and blindsided by early Trump actions.

While=bosses were home on recess last week, the White House held two bo=ling nights and a bowling lunch for top staff left in D.C. (The White Hous='s two-lane alley has photos on the wall of past presidents bowling.) So f=r, 45 Hill aides have watched one of Washington's great spectacles �=94 a Marine One departure from the South Lawn.

The legislat=ve-outreach strategy, and how it's working, based on conversation= with lawmakers, their aides, and White House staff:

F=r his first five years, President Obama paid little attention to =gos on the Hill: He scheduled events involving senators during their 12:30=Tuesday party lunches, the one sacrosanct time on their calendars. And he =nvited a championship team to the White House when the lawmakers from that=state — who would have loved to bask in the even= — were home on recess.

Althoug= Obama's team paid more attention in the final years, Trump is pu=hing on an open door by courting lawmakers and their aides, deploying staf= to work the office buildings, and hiring staff from leadership and the cl=akrooms who understand the members' micro and macro needs. A House=Democrat told us: "Trump doesn't understand Congress, but he does='t disdain Congress."

Rick Dearborn, White House =eputy chief of staff for Legislative Affairs, Office of Intergovernmental =ffairs, Cabinet Affairs, and Implementation, was chief of staff to Sen. Je=f Sessions (now attorney general). Marc Short, Director o= Legislative Affairs, has been a chief of staff in both the House and Sena=e. "These aren't diplomats to a foreign land," said Don Stewart, deputy chief of staff to Leader McConnell.

Perhaps=the most important element is the art of the schmooze by the pres=dent himself. Democrats are regularly being invited to Oval Office events,=and are riding on presidential aircraft.

After Neil Gorsu=h was nominated to the Supreme Court, Trump invited several red-s=ate Democratic senators (with a few Republicans thrown in to make it less =bvious) for a low-key chat in the Roosevelt Room. Photographers were invit=d in, giving the lawmakers good publicity back home —=and making it tougher for the senators to stiff him later.

2. ​Eyes on what matters, folks ...

What doesn't really matter:

Trump <=strong>t=eeting two months in advance that he'll skip the White House =orrespondents' Association dinner April 29. It's a fine night in a crammed=room with episodic humor and celebrity sightings, with scholarships awarde= to journalism students who have contagious enthusiasm and idealism. In th= scheme of things, the president's presence doesn't make or break it. Spicer cherry-picking media orgs for briefings. The b=iefings are marginally useful at best (transcript here of what the excluded reporters missed), and a terri=ic waste of time at worst. Twitter will tell you anything of substance tha= happened. So the time is better spent working the phones.

What really does matter:

The double-barre=ed shots by Trump and Bannon at CPAC. Bannon: "If you think they're going to give you your country back without a fight, yo= are sadly mistaken. ... [E]very day, it is going to be a fight."

=strong>New overnight ... "Wary of Trump unpredictability, China ramps up naval abilities," from Reuters: "The PLA Navy is likely =o secure significant new funding in China's upcoming defense budget as Bei=ing seeks to check U.S. dominance of the high seas and step up its own pro=ection of power around the globe."

Republican "Rep. Darrel= Issa [told Bill Maher] that a specia= prosecutor should be tapped to investigate Russian interference =n the 2016 election, a stance that mirrors the calls of congressio=al Democrats to sideline the U.S attorney general from such inqui=ies."

BREAKING ... In NBC/ WSJ poll, Trump hi=s record low for a new president: 44% approve, 48% disapprove.

3. The wilderness: Inside the DNC election

Tom Perez talks to the press as Keith Ellison listens / Reuters' Chris B=rry

An efficient, evocative dispatch by AP's Bill Barrow fr=m the DNC winter meeting in Atlanta: "When Tom Perez stepped to the stage =s the newly elected Democratic national chairman, his first official act w=s to invite his vanquished rival to join him as deputy chairman. Minnesota=Rep. Keith Ellison accepted on the spot and two men stood together, smilin= like a national ticket at a presidential nominating convention."

=li>Perez told DNC members ahead of his election: "We suff=r from a crisis of confidence ... a crisis of relevance."

=[T]he competitive race that took two rounds of voting — u=precedented in recent memory for either major party. They picked Perez, a =ormer labor secretary backed by ... Obama [Drudge banner: "STILL OBAMA'S P=RTY"], over Ellison, the liberal Minnesota congressman backed by liberal i=on Bernie Sanders.

"Reaction wasn't enthusiastic =mong the liberal groups that embraced Sanders' presidential campaign and h=ve intensified their efforts since the election."

Bern=e Sanders=tweets: "It's imperative Tom understands that the same-old, same-old i=n't working and that we must bring in working and young people in a new wa=."

Trump tweets: "Congratulations to Thomas Perez, who has just =een named Chairman of the DNC. I could not be happier for him, or for the =epublican Party!"

Perez answers: "Call me Tom. And don't get too happy. @=eithellison and I, and Democrats united across the country, will be your w=rst nightmare."

Trump adds this morning: "The race for DNC Chair=an was, of course, totally 'rigged.' Bernie's guy, like Bernie himself, ne=er had a chance. Clinton demanded Perez."

SIREN ... "Progressives threaten revolt after DNC vote," by CNN's Greg Krieg in Atlanta: "After the results were announced, =ngry Ellison loyalists rose from their seats ... and tried to shout down o=tgoing interim chair Donna Brazile, chanting, 'Party for the people, not b=g money!'"

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4. Buffett still bullish

Warren Buffett released his highly-anticipated annual l=tter to Berkshire Hathaway shareholders yesterday (29-page PDF). Takeaways by Axio=' Alayna Treene:

Buffett devoted nearly 5 pages to condemning hedge funds for charging high fees while delivering meager =esults.

Immigration is good: Buffett said that yo= don't need to be an economist to understand that immigration has been at =he foundation of what makes America great. Buffett never mentions Trump by=name.

Stocks will continue to go up: "The years ahead will occasionally deliver major market declines �=80� even panics — that will affect virtually all stocks." But do='t panic: "Yes, the build-up of wealth will be interrupted for short perio=s from time to time. It will not, however, be stopped."

5. Bush's workshop

For Axios AM readers, a sneak peek at a photo from the book / Photo by G=ant Miller, via the Office of George W. Bush

President George W. Bush unveils a new passion project =E2�� a 192-page book of oil paintings, "Portraits of Courage: A Comman=er in Chief's Tribute to America's Warriors," out Tuesday f=om Crown. Bush aide Freddy Ford emailed details to Bush family and friends=last evening:

Over the past year, Bush painte= 98 wounded warriors he's gotten to know through the Bush Institute.
=li>The book includes 64 of them, plus a =our-panel mural, with each painting accompanied by a story Bush wrote abou= the patriot.

Forewords by Laura Bush and Gen. Pe=er Pace, former chair of the Joint Chiefs of Staff.

Bush i= donating profits to the Bush Institute, where the Military Servi=e Initiative helps post-9/11 veterans, with a focus on employment and the =nvisible wounds of war.

See = gallery of the portraits here.

A slipcover edi=ion signed by President Bush is available here<=a>.

6. This is gold: Sharp look at Trump trade

Axios AM moved metals markets this week with the scoop =hat the infrastructure bill is likely to be crowded off the stage this yea=, and instead pushed to 2018 for both practical and political reasons. Bar=on's sees the moment as a sign that the Trump rally is starting "to show s=gns of age."

"Streetwise" columnist Kopin Tan has =everal columns' worth of astute points in "Eight Years a Bull: The bull market's eight-=ear anniversary is just around the corner [March 9] — and cracks i= its façade are beginning to show":

"The Dow indu=trials' 11 straight record closes have become its longest streak =ince early 1987."

"Economically sensitive=financials, industrials, and materials are still the top three se=tors since the election. But they've slipped off the medal podium to the f=fth to seventh spots this year, as an infrastructure spending bill looks u=likely before 2018.

Unintended consequences: "[T]=e White House wants to reduce the inflow of immigrants and increase the ou=flow, which could slow the already wan growth in our labor force by 32% in=2018 and 62% in 2019 ... Reducing immigration 'should not be viewed just a= a supply shock to labor, but more importantly as a demand shock.'"
"Immigrants—both illegal ones targeted by border=guards, and legal aliens who feel the chill—buy homes and cars and=services, and their ejection from the base of our economic pyramid=could affect markets from retail to housing."

If =ou read only 1 paragraph in this entire newsletter: "Above all, o=r cyclical rejuvenation hasn't cured the structural ills of an economy hol=owed out by automation and global competition, and stagnant wages for 90% =f the population. That may be why there's anger on the streets, even if ou= economic enhancement continues to enthrall Wall Street."

7. Trump Nation: Beyond the bubble

The lead story of the N.Y. Times, "Agents Discover a =ew Freedom on Deportations," is an evocative look at the emboldened es=rit and aggressive new tactics of immigration officers around the country =nder Trump:

"Gone are the Obama-era rules that=required them to focus only on serious criminals. ... [T]he Obama administ=ation's hierarchy of priorities, which forced agents to concentrate on dep=rting gang members and other violent and serious criminals, and mostly lea=e everyone else alone."

"A whirlwind of activity =as overtaken ICE headquarters [Immigration and Customs Enforcement, part o= Homeland Security] ... 'Some people are like: 'This is great,' ... said a=senior staff member ... '[OI]ther people are a little bit more hesitant an= fearful about how quickly things are moving.'"

<=trong>"[T]he sight of even a single white van emblazoned with the=words Department of Homeland Security can create fear and cause people to =lee."

"[A]rrests can appear dramatic, as agents a=rive in large numbers, armed with semiautomatic handguns and wearing dark =ulletproof vests with ICE in bright white letters on them. ... Man= times, children are awakened in the process, and watch as a parent is tak=n away."

8. A trick for growing government

George Will uses today's column, "How big gov=rnment disguises its growth," to illuminate a big idea in a Brookings paper by John DiIulio of the Univ=rsity of Pennsylvania, who ran George W. Bush's first faith-based office: =/p>

"[G]overnment has prudently become stealthy ab=ut how it becomes ever bigger ... using three kinds of 'administrative pro=ies' — state and local government, for-profit businesses, and nonp=ofit organizations."

"Many Americans are rhetoric=lly conservative but behaviorally liberal."

"The governmen=/for-profit contractor/nonprofit complex consumes about 40 percen= of gross domestic product. Just don't upset anyone by calling it "big gov=rnment.'"

9. The talk of tech

Snap's IPO prompts the L.A. Times' Nina Agrawal to dive deep on an anomaly about the company: It has no headquarters buil=ing or campus, but instead sprawls among bungalows on or near Venice Beach= just north of LAX.

From Snap's filing: "This diffuse structure may prevent us from fostering positive e=ployee morale and encouraging social interaction among our employees and d=fferent business units. ...[W]e may be unable to adequately oversee employ=es and business functions.'"

"In an era when<=strong> companies such as Google, Facebook and Apple have created an expec=ation that tech firms will offer sprawling corporate campuses with gyms, c=efs preparing organic food and massage services on site, Snap's scattered =ayout could strengthen its brand as an outsider. ... Snap has ... 2,000 e=ployees; Google has some 60,000."

Snap culture: "=orkers take shuttles or walk between offices, which some say has deepened =heir desire to volunteer locally. They can eat at beachside cafes and supp=rt local businesses, thanks to Snap vouchers. And then there's the aura. '=enice is younger and grittier.'"

"The company=/strong> — a start-up whose founder is 26 years old and whose targ=t demographic is millennials — is young in every sense of the word= Its employees probably live their lives on mobile devices, connect to fri=nds and colleagues through digital networks."

How Facebook's clones<=strong> ripped off Snapchat (chart by Bloomberg).

10. 1 fun thing

Emma Stone and Ryan Gosling in "La La Land" / Lionsgate

Key storyline for tonight's Oscars (ABC, 7 p.m., hosted=by Jimmy Kimmel) — AP Film Writer Jake Coyle: "'La La Land' goes =nto Sunday's 89th Annual Academy Awards with a record-tying 14 nominations= including best picture. But a cultural backlash against =he candy-colored musical has raised the possibility of an upset win by the=strong> more socially relevant 'Moonlight' or 'Hidden Figures.'"<=p>
Sound smart: "[M]any have already lamented the increasin=ly self-congratulatory nature of Hollywood's already exceedingly self-cong=atulatory awards season. ... But if 'La La Land' pulls out the win, ... it=may just prove that Hollywood doesn't need another pat on the back, but a =ep talk."

H=llywood loves movies about ... Hollywood: "Damien Chapelle's =.. 'La La Land' is part of a grand tradition going back beyond 'Singin' i= the Rain' and running past 'Mulholland Drive.'"

Celebrities who may get political in tonight's speeches, tipped to be the most political ever.

Political speeches <=a>at past Oscars ceremonies.

Vanity Fair's 1=page printable ballot for your Oscars party, with a spot to s=ore correct picks out of 24.

See the N.Y. Times =d, "The truth is hard," that will air during the Oscars �=80� and Trump's tweet about it this morning!

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