Subject: POLITICO's Morning Score: Senate could sink Obamacare repeal — Potential Manchin foes laying groundwork in West Virginia — Gillum hires GSG, Putnam for Florida governor run
From: "Morning Score" <[email-masked]>
To: <[email-masked]>
Date: Wed, 08 Mar 2017 09:07:24 -0600
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By Elena Schneider | 03/08/2017 10:00 AM EDT

With Scott Bland, Kevin Robillard and Daniel Strauss

The following newsletter is an abridged version of Campaign Pro's Morning Score. For an earlier morning read on exponentially more races - and for a more comprehensive aggregation of the day's most important campaign news - sign up for Campaign Pro today. (http://www.politicopro.com/proinfo)

ON THE HILL & BACK HOME - "The many ways the Senate could tank Obamacare repeal," by POLITICO's Burgess Everett: "Speaker Paul Ryan guarantees he'll muscle the GOP's Obamacare repeal bill through the House. But even if he manages to execute that impressive feat, Republicans will then have to clear an even more imposing hurdle: the Senate. Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) can lose just two votes and still pass repeal legislation on party lines. But at least eight Republicans have already loudly complained about the bill's direction. That's why on Tuesday, a day after the GOP plan was unveiled, barely any rank-and-file senators were explicitly embracing it. The overhaul would replace
 insurance subsidies with tax credits, expand health savings accounts and gut Obamacare's Medicaid expansion. Two conservative senators said they would oppose the measure and a third, Ted Cruz (R-Texas), appears to be leaning that way. Four GOP senators from states that have expanded Medicaid publicly raised concerns about how the program will be curbed. And moderates are concerned that Planned Parenthood's funding will be slashed." Full story. 

COMING SOON? - "Potential Manchin opponents move closer to running," by Campaign Pro's Daniel Strauss: "Both West Virginia Attorney General Patrick Morrisey and Rep. Evan Jenkins are taking steps toward running for Senate in 2018, which could pit the two against each other in a Republican primary for the right to take on Democratic Sen. Joe Manchin. Both potential candidates have met with the NRSC. But beyond that, the two Republicans are laying different foundations, at different paces, for potential runs against Manchin." Full story. 

- "GOP businessman John Cox enters Calif. governor's race," by POLITICO California's Carla Marinucci: "Saying he is 'different kind of Republican,' wealthy California businessman John Cox formally jumped into the 2018 governor's race Tuesday, but declined to say whether he voted for President Donald Trump or where he stands on many of Trump's signature issues - underscoring the challenges for Republican statewide candidates in solidly blue California, Cox ... opened an exploratory committee in early February and says he has contributed an initial $1 million of his own funds to kick off the campaign. He's also contributed an additional $1 million to support a ballot measure which he says is
 the driving force for his campaign - the Neighborhood Legislative Initiative, which he says would return local control to voters and reduce the impact of big money in politics." Full story. 

FIRST IN SCORE - Gillum hires GSG, Putnam for Florida governor run: Tallahassee Mayor Andrew Gillum has hired an A-list team of consultants for his run for governor of Florida. Mark Putnam's Putnam Partners is making the television ads, Global Strategy Group is handling polling, Revolution Messaging is on digital and Mission Control is handling direct mail. Phillip Thompson, who ran Florida chapter of the labor-backed super PAC For Our Future in 2016, will be the campaign manager. Brice Barnes, formerly the Florida Democratic Party's finance director, will be the deputy campaign manager and oversee fundraising. Geoff Burgan, formerly the press secretary for Rep. Debbie Wasserman Schultz,
 will handle communications. Sean Pittman and Sharon Lettman, both long-time allies of Gillum, will serve as senior advisers. 

EARLY POLLING DATA - "Another poll shows Nelson beating Scott, but Trump looms big in 2018," by POLITICO Florida's Marc Caputo: A second poll in a row of Florida voters shows U.S. Sen. Bill Nelson beating Gov. Rick Scott in a hypothetical 2018 contest that could hinge on the popularity of President Trump. Nelson's 5 percentage-point lead over Scott in the Mason-Dixon Polling & Research survey is on par with the Democrat's 6-point advantage over the governor in a University of North Florida poll released Monday. The race, however, could be essentially dead-even because the polls surveyed a slightly higher percentage of Democrats than Republicans, who typically show in greater strength at the
 ballot box in mid-term elections. Read more.

Days until the 2017 election: 244.

Days until the 2018 election: 608.

Thanks for joining us. You can email tips to the Campaign Pro team at [email-masked], [email-masked], [email-masked] and [email-masked]. 

You can also follow us on Twitter, where we tweet about campaigns and dusty streets: @politicoscott, @ec_schneider, @politicokevin and @danielstrauss4. 

WOMEN RULE NEWSLETTER AND PODCAST - POLITICO launches a monthly newsletter dedicated to exploring women's leadership in politics, policy, and in their communities. The first edition of the newsletter features updates on members of the Women Rule community as well as the first Women Rule podcast with POLITICO's Editor Carrie Budoff Brown, Sen. Deb Fischer, and Valerie Jarrett. Listen to the Women Rule podcast here. Sign up to receive the Women Rule newsletter here.

ONE ON ONE - "POLITICO Pro Q&A: Virginia lieutenant governor candidate Susan Platt," by Campaign Pro's Kevin Robillard: "Susan Platt, a one-time Senate campaign manager and chief of staff to Chuck Robb and Joe Biden, became the first female Democrat to announce a run for statewide office after President Donald Trump's inauguration. Platt declared for Virginia lieutenant governor in the immediate aftermath of the women's marches that took place around the country ... Platt has worked to elect women over the years: She started the Farm Team and Emerge Virginia, two groups that train women to run for office. But this is her first run for elected office." Full story.

POST-MORTEM - Wesleyan Media Project has released its 2016 Election Study on TV advertising in the Clinton-Trump race, as well as some down-ballot contests. Key findings:

- Clinton's ads were much less policy-focused than recent nominees': "Fewer than 10 percent of [Clinton] ads attacking Trump focused on his policies whereas about 90 percent was focused on Trump as an individual. Clinton's contrast ads were similarly devoid of policy discussion," report authors Erika Franklin Fowler, Travis N. Ridout and Michael M. Franz wrote. "... In total, over 60 percent of ads supporting Clinton were solely about candidate characteristics, while only about 25 percent were focused on policy. This is a huge difference from Trump's advertising, over 70 percent of which was focused on policy, and it is a huge difference from every other presidential campaign for which we
 have comparable data (Figure 9). In a typical campaign, ads that focus on candidate character have comprised less than 20 percent of total ad airings, and in some years like 2000, there were hardly any ads that focused on the candidates' character."

- The Trump campaign largely neglected local cable: "Clinton purchased fewer ads than Obama on local broadcast ... but more advertising on local cable. ... On the Republican side, Trump aired far fewer ads on local broadcast than did Romney, and he aired just a handful of local cable spots, further widening the discrepancies on air. Both the broadcast and local cable totals tell a truly unparalleled story of imbalances in political ads."

- While the presidential election flaunted the rules, the congressional races followed them: "While advertising in the presidential race in 2016 did not follow traditional patterns, advertising in Senate and House races generally did. ... [T]he political parties continued to be comparatively more involved in these races than in the presidential, though with considerably fewer ads than outside groups. ... The tone of Senate advertising was also quite similar to recent years, with just over 50 percent of ads being negative ads." Read the full report here.

MANDEL ON ISLAM - "Anti-Islam suspicions return to Josh Mandel's political repertoire for 2018 Senate campaign," by Cleveland.com's Andrew J. Tobias: "Since declaring his candidacy for U.S. Senate in December, Ohio Treasurer Josh Mandel has used his social media account to repeatedly call attention to his views on 'radical Islamic terrorism.' But some of Mandel's recent social media posts have taken that criticism further, into the realm of attacking aspects of Islam itself. Like an increasing number of Republican politicians, Mandel appears to have calculated that playing to public suspicions of the religion, stoked by fears of attacks inspired by ISIS and other extremist groups, is good
 politics. Ohio Muslim activists interviewed by cleveland.com said Mandel appears to be trying to emulate President Donald Trump, who occupied a similar space last year during his successful campaign for the White House." Full story.

DIGITAL PRIORITIES - Priorities USA has a five-point plan for long-term digital advertising toward voters who supported Obama in 2012 and either didn't vote or supported Trump in 2016, via Axios' Jonathan Swan. Priorities president Guy Cecil is "hiring an initial digital staff of at least 25 people" to work on projects including "converting anti-Trump protesters into registered voters." Full story. 

- The DCCC raised $4.7 million online in February, The Washington Post reported, partially fueled by fundraising off of Sen. Elizabeth Warren's criticism of Attorney General Jeff Sessions that was interrupted and then prohibited on the Senate floor. The DCCC raised over $4.1 million online in January.

ADMINISTRATION SPEED READ - "Trump adviser Icahn accused of breaching lobbying rules," by POLITICO's Eric Wolff: "A consumer advocacy group is filing a complaint to Congress on Wednesday accusing President Donald Trump's friend and fellow billionaire Carl Icahn of violating lobbying rules by pushing the White House to change the federal ethanol regulations. Public Citizen contends that Icahn, his company Icahn Enterprises and the CVR oil refining company he owns failed to register as lobbyists, yet pushed the White House to change the EPA's decade-old rules on ethanol - a move that would save Icahn's company hundreds of millions of dollars. Trump named Icahn, whose net worth is pegged by
 Forbes at nearly $22 billion, as the White House's special adviser for regulatory reform in December, but said he would 'not be serving as a federal employee or a special government employee and will not have any specific duties.'" Full story. 

- "After loving WikiLeaks as a candidate, Trump decides he doesn't like leaks as president," by The Washington Post's Jenna Johnson and Ashley Parker: "...But now that he is in the White House, Trump is having to confront the threat of hacking, along with leaks from within his own administration - and, suddenly, he is not a fan. Trump and his aides have angrily railed against leakers, threatening to find and prosecute them and urging congressional allies to investigate, while being uncharacteristically quiet when it comes to WikiLeaks. The latest sign of how the tables have turned came Tuesday when WikiLeaks announced that it had obtained a vast portion of the CIA's closely guarded
 cyberweapons and began posting files online. The breach could cause massive fallout among U.S. allies and poses a serious challenge for Trump, who has been feuding with the intelligence community over probes into alleged ties between his campaign and Russia." Full story.

CODA - QUOTE OF THE DAY: "I was meeting somebody who was a very generous donor to Republican causes. He said he happens to know the senator and he likes her. I said I agree with that. In fact, if we're successful in beating her, you can spend a lot more time with her." - NRSC vice-chair Thom Tillis, referring to Democratic Sen. Claire McCaskill during a swing through Missouri.

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