Subject: More intel, big storm with rough budget day looming
From: "Liz.Schrayer" <[email-masked]>
To: "Liz.Schrayer" <[email-masked]>
Date: Sun, 12 Mar 2017 17:14:26 +0000

Dear Board of Directors,

Good Sunday Afternoon. As the northeast gets ready for the big snowstorm tomorrow night, we’re gearing up for our own storm this Thursday when the Administration officially sends its budget to Congress. And I have some more intel to share.

NICE NEWS. I’m pleased to announce that that we can continue to claim “every living Secretary of State” among our ranks, as Secretary John Kerry joined the USGLC National Advisory Council this week. Now when introducing our bipartisan luminaries, we can add to our alliteration “from Kissinger to Kerry.”

BUDGET DAY. While all eyes are on the health care debate, this Thursday is Budget Day when the Administration will present copies of their “skinny budget” to Congress (not the Full Monty with all the details). While the Administration’s budget is non-binding – and most agree it’s “Dead on Arrival” as Senator Graham said – the framing, messaging, and comments from the Twitter-in-Chief will be impactful, especially for us.

Here’s what we expect – and how we’re prepping:

§  Expect a proposed cut for the State Department and USAID closer to what we discussed at our board meeting, around 30-33% – slightly better than the earlier rumored 37% cuts.  While still horrific, our aggressive efforts engaging the Administration last week had some impact.
§  Expect inconsistency when it comes to what details will be unveiled beyond topline numbers. As someone explained, “It will depend on what helps their messaging.” For example, we could see massive cuts in multilateral programs. Also, severe cuts in the USAID sphere, but no details on MCC and OPIC. Be prepared for some shocking numbers – we will have an analysis out as quickly as possible.
§  We are shoring up friends on Capitol Hill, urging them to add our issue in their “wish list” letters to the Appropriations Committee. Most impressive wins:
o    House Chairman Ed Royce included the need for “full funding” in his views and estimates letter – something he has never done.
o    Some prominent members of the House Freedom Caucus will speak out including to the Appropriations Committee.
§  We’ll have more than a dozen signers of our military letter on Capitol Hill next week meeting with senior members of Congress, including the Senate Appropriations Chairman and Rep. Jim Jordan, a leader of the Freedom Caucus.
§  Watch for an impressive letter signed by faith leaders to likely drop on Budget Day. Thank you to several board members for big lifts!
§  As part of our Leading Globally Matters Locally campaign nearly 100 organizations and businesses are participating in our campaign with the national mobilization week starting on March 20th. Thank you to almost every board member for joining on!

TEAM PENCE MEETING. With 24-hour notice, we secured a very small meeting with VPOTUS’s top national security and domestic advisors. We were only able to bring four people so our goal was to raise our budget concerns, and to get a “second date” with the Vice President’s advisors and the full board since Pence is clearly emerging as a powerful voice on foreign policy. Few takeaways:

§  They were very receptive to our budget concerns but felt there was little they could do at this late date.
§  I pushed back reminding them that a) the budget process will be going on all year and this is stage one; b) the rhetoric of the Administration is clearly targeting foreign aid in a disproportionate and negative manner and they could help tone it down; and c) the Vice President has a bully pulpit, and as an internationalist could and should speak out.
§  All three messages resonated, and we will follow up with a team that is clearly trying to figure out the emerging power centers within this Administration, but wants to project their boss as a key player on foreign policy.
§  We invited them to join our board at a salon dinner.

TILLERSON WATCH. Lots of questions about our new Secretary of State’s impact and we are still trying to get a meeting. I watched with great interest to understand the meaning of the press reports this past week that Tillerson agreed in principle to cut his budget by more than a third, but to do so over three years – proposing a 20% cut for this year.

Some were appalled and others thought it was brilliant negotiating – since no one cares about the outlay years – and he could have negotiated the Administration down by 17% if he was successful. Sounds like he only saved about 4-7% cuts. Here’s what I do know:

  *   He is seriously reviewing various proposals about how to reform, restructure, and shrink State and USAID’s bureaucracy. No decisions have been made and he is just beginning to learn and take in information. This is where we can play an important role.
  *   The USAID and OPIC picks have been made, but very unclear when they will become official. No names surfacing on MCC, Peace Corps, USTDA, or ExIm. Some of these agencies have heard nothing from the Administration. Tillerson has agreed to chair the MCC Board meeting at the end of March.
  *   Despite not taking the press along with him, I do think it’s good news that Tillerson is heading overseas this week with stops in Japan, South Korea, and China as the Administration tries to find a way forward on dealing with North Korea.
  *   And I’ve also been watching Ambassador Nikki Haley, who is emerging as a forceful voice for U.S. foreign policy – publicly tackling some of the toughest issues of the moment, including North Korea, Syria, and Israel and Palestine.

ON DEFENSE. In a Senate Armed Services Committee hearing, some exceptional comments from the CENTCOM and AFRICOM Commanders – both underscoring the need for non-military tools:

  *   On fighting ISIS and Boko Haram, General Thomas Waldhauser of AFRICOM stated: “Many people, especially those in uniform, have said we can’t kill our way to victory... we cannot [win the war without soft power].”
  *   When Senator Elizabeth Warren asked if the generals thought the State Department and other civilian agencies were “a waste of time and taxpayer money,” General Joseph Votel of CENTCOM responded: “I do not, Senator.”

Last week was overwhelming as we responded to an Administration who calculated that going after our little 1% of the budget could energize their base. When the OMB Director went on FOX News last week and said “We are going to cut foreign assistance so we can send more money back home,” we knew this is politics and not about balancing the budget. Apparently, Mick Mulvaney admitted this to one of his friends too.

I am very proud of my colleagues, and our community, who have built upon our military letter, energized Capitol Hill (many of whom were energized by the Administration’s overreach), and have managed the enormity of the influx of opportunities. The budget details are going to be shocking – so be prepared to be sad about all that we have built over the years, but to be inspired by the pushback from Capitol Hill and beyond.

And just in case you missed the really important news of the week in DC – the Big Ten’s Tournament is taking place at the Verizon Center and I am off to watch my alma mater in the Championship. Go Blue!

Best,
Liz

Liz Schrayer, USGLC