Subject: POLITICO's Morning Score: GOP scrambles after CBO score shows uninsurance spiking under health bill — Senate Election Watch — 2018 Update
From: "Morning Score" <[email-masked]>
To: <[email-masked]>
Date: Tue, 14 Mar 2017 08:06:52 -0600
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By Scott Bland | 03/14/2017 10:00 AM EDT

With Elena Schneider and Theodoric Meyer

The following newsletter is an abridged version of Campaign Pro's Morning Score. For an earlier morning read on exponentially more races - and for a more comprehensive aggregation of the day's most important campaign news - sign up for Campaign Pro today. (http://www.politicopro.com/proinfo)

BILL OF HEALTH - "GOP scrambles after scorching health bill appraisal," by POLITICO's Kyle Cheney, Burgess Everett, and Rachael Bade: "House Republican leaders plunged into damage control mode Monday after a brutal budgetary assessment of their Obamacare replacement threatened to upend Senate GOP support and armed their critics on the left. Speaker Paul Ryan's team quickly pinpointed rosier elements of the report by the Congressional Budget Office, from cost savings to lower premiums. But the bottom line - that the number of uninsured Americans will climb by 24 million within a decade - threatened to upend the GOP leadership's fragile efforts to unite congressional Republicans around the
 plan. 'Can't sugarcoat it. Doesn't look good,' said Sen. Bill Cassidy (R-La.). 'The CBO score was, shall we say, an eye popper.'"

- " ... That's to say nothing of centrists spooked by the CBO results. Though conservatives have been the most vocally resistant to the plan so far, the new figures underscore the danger that moderate Republicans who hail from states that embraced Obamacare's massive Medicaid expansion face if they support the bill. ... 'I'm concerned about the Medicaid population. That's the biggest part of the coverage for Ohio,' said Sen. Rob Portman (R-Ohio), who has emerged as a protector of his state's decision to expand Medicaid." Full story.

- "5 takeaways from the CBO's report on Obamacare repeal," by Adriel Bettelheim and Jason Millman: Full story.

- "White House analysis of Obamacare repeal sees even deeper insurance losses than CBO," by POLITICO's Paul Demko: "The White House's own internal analysis of the GOP plan to repeal and replace Obamacare show even steeper coverage losses than the projections by the Congressional Budget Office, according to a document viewed by POLITICO on Monday. The executive branch analysis forecast that 26 million people would lose coverage over the next decade, versus the 24 million CBO estimate - a finding that undermines White House efforts to discredit the forecasts from the nonpartisan CBO. White House officials late Monday night disputed that the document is an analysis of the bill's coverage
 effects. Instead, they say it was an attempt by the Office of Management and Budget to predict what CBO's scorekeepers would conclude about the GOP repeal plan." Full story.

FINANCIAL TIMES - Senate GOP campaign arm raises $5.1M in February," by The Hill's Lisa Hagen: "The Senate GOP's campaign arm raised $5.1 million last month, the committee's best off-year February fundraising in the past 16 years. The National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC) reported Monday that it has raised about $9.3 million so far this year and has nearly $10.3 million cash on hand, according to figures provided by the NRSC." Full story.

- SPECIAL ELECTION UPDATE - Top House Democrats host Ossoff fundraiser: The top House Democratic brass will host a fundraiser on Thursday at Democratic National Committee headquarters for Jon Ossoff, whom Democrats have seized on as their best shot to snap up the conservative-leaning House seat in the Atlanta suburbs vacated by Health and Human Services Secretary Tom Price. Among the headliners: House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi; Minority Whip Steny Hoyer; Assistant Minority Leader Jim Clyburn; Caucus Chairman Joe Crowley; Caucus Vice Chairwoman Linda Sanchez; DCCC Chairman Ben Ray Lujan; and Reps. Sanford Bishop, Hank Johnson, John Lewis and David Scott, all Georgia Democrats. The jungle
 primary for the special election is April 18. Here's the invitation.

2018 WATCH - "Rep. Rokita 'strongly considering' 2018 U.S. Senate race," by Howey Politics Indiana's Brian Howey: "Rep. Todd Rokita all but declared his candidacy for the 2018 Republican U.S. Senate nomination which will likely pit him against U.S. Rep. Luke Messer. ... Rokita has been telling Republican insiders that polling he conducted last summer when he ran a 12-day campaign for governor showed him within 5% of [Democratic Sen. Joe] Donnelly. ... State Sen. Mike Delph, former Indianapolis mayor Greg Ballard, Kokomo attorney Mark Hurt and Evansville Mayor Lloyd Winnecke are others who are considering a challenge to" Donnelly. Full story. 

- "Source: Brian Kemp to run for Georgia governor in 2018," by the Atlanta Journal Constitution's Greg Bluestein: "Secretary of State Brian Kemp will join the the 2018 race for Georgia governor, according to an official with direct knowledge of the Republican's decision. It's unclear when Kemp will formally announce. He declined comment on Monday, though he's been dropping hints for months that he'll run and has been lining up staffers and donors. ... The field to succeed a term-limited Nathan Deal in 2018 is wide-open - and remains very unsettled. Republican Lt. Gov. Casey Cagle is all but guaranteed to join the race ... Several other Republican candidates are openly considering a run,
 including former Reps. Jack Kingston and Lynn Westmoreland, House Speaker David Ralston and state Sen. Michael Williams. A wealthy businessman running as an outsider is also likely to jump in." Full story.

- "Connie Pillich is 3rd Democrat to announce bid for Ohio governor," by the Columbus Dispatch's Randy Ludlow: "It will mark the second statewide run for Pillich, a lawyer and former Air Force captain who served three terms in the Ohio House. She ran for treasurer in 2014, losing to Republican Josh Mandel. Two other Democrats - Senate Minority Leader Joe Schiavoni, of the Youngstown area, and former U.S. Rep. Betty Sutton, of the Akron area - also have announced their candidacies for governor. 'I learned in military you walk into every mission ready to succeed and I'm ready to win this race,' Pillich told The Dispatch, stressing she is the only Democratic candidate with statewide campaign
 experience. 'I understand how to put the race together.'" Full story.

Days until the 2017 election: 238.

Days until the 2018 election: 602.

Thanks for joining us. You can email tips to the Campaign Pro team at [email-masked], [email-masked], [email-masked] and [email-masked]. 

You can also follow us on Twitter: @politicoscott, @ec_schneider, @politicokevin and @danielstrauss4.

LAW SCHOOL - "Democrats eye former U.S. attorneys as 2018 candidates," by Campaign Pro's Daniel Strauss: "Until Friday, Barbara McQuade served as United States attorney in eastern Michigan. By Saturday, one day after the Trump administration demanded her resignation, her prospects as a candidate for governor or attorney general were the talk of the state Democratic Party. McQuade was among more than 40 U.S. attorneys appointed by former President Barack Obama and let go by the president last week, an act that suddenly flooded the political marketplace with experienced federal prosecutors of the sort both parties love to tap to run for high office. ... 'They come with a lot of advantages,'
 said former DCCC political director Ian Russell ... 'There's the prosecutorial experience, the sense of respect Americans have for the impartial justice department. They've got political connections, but their work is non-political in nature and there are firewalls to protect that. Many have fundraising and political support networks they could tap.'" Full story. 

INTERNAL POLLING - "Issa's own poll suggests Trump's a burden," by the San Diego Union-Tribune's Joshua Stewart: "An internal poll by Issa's campaign shows a 10-point drop in the Vista Republican's favorability ratings between mid-October and early December, and that Issa's support for President Donald Trump is likely one of the reasons his image took a hit. ... On Oct. 18, Issa had a 40 percent unfavorable rating [in the San Diego County portion of the district] - a score that rose to 49 points by Dec. 7. His favorable rating edged down from 42 percent to 41 percent during that time. The poll found that voters who saw television ads remembered Issa's ties to Trump more than any other
 detail ... The poll and analysis were contained in documents for an unsuccessful $10 million libel lawsuit Issa filed against Applegate. A judge dismissed that case on Friday." Full story. See the poll here.

COLD COMFORT - "Whoops! Sorry about that frigid camp-out, but ballot placement is a lottery," by The Washington Post's Laura Vozzella: "Braving bitter cold, campaign staffers for state Sen. Bryce E. Reeves camped out all weekend in front of the state Board of Elections, determined to get his name listed first on the ballot for the June 13 GOP primary for lieutenant governor of Virginia. Sunday night, they got some company on the sidewalk. Staffers for gubernatorial hopeful Corey A. Stewart lined up behind them, confident for the next 12 bone-chilling hours that they, too, had snagged the top ballot position in their race. ...But the frigid vigils were for naught. Turns out, anyone who
 showed up at the elections board by noon on March 13 - the moment, designated by state code, that the board can start accepting candidate filings - has the same shot at being listed first." Full story.

ADMINISTRATION SPEED READ - "Now It's Democrats Who Are Hinting at a Shutdown Over Budget Plan," by the New York Times' Alan Rappeport: "Democrats pilloried Republicans for irresponsibly shutting down the government when Barack Obama was president, but as a minority party struggling to show resistance in the era of President Trump, they are now ready to let the lights of government go dark. A group of prominent Senate Democrats on Monday raised the specter of a shutdown over the funding of President Trump's proposed wall along the border with Mexico. They also signaled a series of protracted budget battles in Congress over a larger force of immigration officers, what they call a deportation
 force, and funding for Planned Parenthood." Full story.

-  "Trump looks to woo conservatives on Obamacare repeal," by POLITICO's Josh Dawsey, Rachael Bade and Tara Palmeri: "President Donald Trump's White House is increasingly likely to support some conservative-backed changes to the House Obamacare alternative, two administration officials said Monday ... One senior administration official, speaking on the condition of anonymity to describe internal discussions, said the White House is weighing ideas for a 'significant' manager's amendment to the bill before it hits the House floor next week. Officials would like the changes - which would likely be offered in the House Rules Committee - to appease some conservatives. Possible modifications
 being considered include phasing out the Medicaid expansion quicker, from the current Dec. 31, 2019 date to the beginning of 2018, and moving changes supposed to occur in the insurance market from 2020 to 2018." Full story. 

- "Democrats paralyzed as Gorsuch skates," by POLITICO's Seung Min Kim and Burgess Everett: "Democrats can't seem to land a punch on Neil Gorsuch - and it's not even clear they want to. President Donald Trump's Supreme Court nominee has breezed through more than 70 meetings with senators. Opponents who've scoured his record have found little to latch onto. And some Democrats are privately beginning to believe that Gorsuch - barring a blunder at his Senate confirmation hearings next week - will clinch the 60 votes he needs to be approved without a filibuster." Full story. 

CODA - QUOTE OF THE DAY: "I don't think we're in a position to mandate that towns stay open or reverse their direction if they so choose not to, but we do strongly recommend that they do stay open." - New Hampshire Gov. Chris Sununu, on towns postponing elections scheduled for Tuesday because of the massive snowstorm set to hit the East Coast. Via NH1.

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