Subject: POLITICO's Morning Score: Red-state Democrats stick with their party in early Senate votes — House GOP moderates start to fray in health care push — Pritzker, Graham make moves toward gubernatorial runs
From: "Morning Score" <[email-masked]>
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Date: Wed, 15 Mar 2017 08:10:17 -0600
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By Scott Bland | 03/15/2017 10:00 AM EDT

With Daniel Strauss

The following newsletter is an abridged version of Campaign Pro's Morning Score. For an earlier morning read on exponentially more races - and for a more comprehensive aggregation of the day's most important campaign news - sign up for Campaign Pro today. (http://www.politicopro.com/proinfo)

VOTING PATTERNS - "Trump-state Democrats choose party over president," by POLITICO's Elana Schor: "Donald Trump carried Missouri by 19 percentage points on his way to the presidency. But Sen. Claire McCaskill, who faces a fight for reelection next year in the conservative-leaning state, isn't exactly voting like Washington's idea of a red-state Democrat. McCaskill has sided with Democratic leaders against all of Trump's most contentious Cabinet nominees and five of the seven regulatory rollbacks teed up by the Senate GOP since Inauguration Day, according to a POLITICO analysis. She is not alone among red-state Democrats who lately have remained in their party's fold: On the Senate's
 highest-profile votes since the president took office, eight of the 10 most vulnerable Democrats on the ballot next year voted with their party nearly four-fifths of the time. Even famously GOP-friendly Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) has sided with Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren as often as he aligned with Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.)." Full story. 

HEALTH PUSH - American Action Network spending pushing GOP health law hits $10 million: The Republican nonprofit is airing another $1.5 million in ads targeting 15 districts mostly represented by battleground and/or moderate House Republicans. The district-specific ad thanks members by name for "keeping their promise with a new plan for better health care." However, one of the targeted Republicans, GOP Rep. Darrell Issa, just said that he is "not prepared" to vote for the current GOP bill. Rep. Ileana Ros-Lehtinen of Florida (not one of the targets of this round of AAN ads) joined Issa in opposition on Tuesday.

HEAVY HITTER - Former President George W. Bush to headline Flake fundraiser, via the Arizona Republic's Dan Nowicki: Flake and the current Republican president have a rocky relationship, but he's getting 2018 help from the previous one. From Nowicki: "[Bush] is the attraction for an April 11 dinner event at the Paradise Valley home of former Intel Corp. chairman and chief executive Craig Barrett and his wife, Barbara Barrett, who Bush in 2008 nominated to serve as U.S. ambassador to Finland. Bush's guest appearance could give Flake a shot of momentum as he comes under increased pressure from the right and left. During last year's campaign, Flake emerged as one of now-President Donald
 Trump's most persistent GOP critics and ultimately did not endorse nor vote for Trump." Full story.

FINANCIAL TIMES - The DCCC raised $9.8 million in February as the NRCC raised $10.5 million, via Huffington Post's Matt Fuller: "That is almost double the DCCC's previous February record of $5.1 million in 2015 ... a significant chunk of their fundraising for this month ― $6.4 million ― is coming from small-dollar donors. Online donations are also up by 300 percent from February 2015, when the DCCC raised $1.5 million." Full story.

GOVERNOR PRIMARY WATCH - "J.B. Pritzker exploring run for Illinois governor," by POLITICO Illinois' Natasha Korecki: "A spokesperson said Pritzker will also contribute $200,000 to cover day-to-day operations associated with the exploratory committee." Full story.

- Pritzker's move is another step toward a potentially expensive primary with fellow wealthy businessman Chris Kennedy, who is already running. (Though Pritzker's estimated $3.5 billion fortune eclipses the millions Kennedy brings to the table.)

- Former Rep. Gwen Graham (D-Fla.) moves $250,000 into state campaign account, via POLITICO Florida's Matt Dixon: "A state political committee has been setup to help former U.S. Rep. Gwen Graham with her expected gubernatorial bid. On Feb. 3, Graham for Congress, her congressional account, gave $250,000 to Our Florida, a state political committee set up one day earlier. The committee is chaired by Stephanie Toothaker, an attorney with the Tripp Scott law firm. She served as special counsel for Gwen's father, Bob Graham ... As of Jan. 31, Graham's congressional committee had $1.2 million cash on hand, including the $250,000 she has transferred." Full story.

Days until the 2017 election: 237.

Days until the 2018 election: 601.

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SPECIAL ELECTION UPDATE - Club for Growth PAC endorses Bob Gray for GA-06: "Congressional Leadership Fund is already on the air attacking Democrat Jon Ossoff, but the Club could become the first outside group to jump into the crowded intra-GOP competition ahead of next month's" all-party primary. Full story.

HOUSE PRIMARY WATCH - Democratic businesswoman looking at Lipinski challenge in IL-03: Democrat Marie Newman is gearing up to run against Rep. Dan Lipinski, Greg Hinz reports at Crains Chicago Business. Newman has been meeting with Indivisible grassroots chapters as well as Pantsuit Nation and Action for a Better Tomorrow. She's also working with top Chicago Democratic consultants Tom Bowen, John Kupper, and Tammy Duckworth pollster Jill Normington. More from Newman here.

DIGITAL BUY - The Republican Party of Wisconsin's first digital buy of the 2018 cycle hits Democratic Sen. Tammy Baldwin over a thorny issue from the state's 2016 Senate race: the Veterans Affairs center in Tomah. The ads from the state GOP, which will be promoted on Facebook and Twitter and other digital platforms, say that Baldwin "failed Wisconsin veterans" regarding an inspector general's report on problems at the facility.

TV BUY - "Planned Parenthood to unleash campaign against Trump," by POLITICO's Josh Dawsey: "Republicans have promised to strip funding from Planned Parenthood because the organization funds abortions. Now, in a bid to keep their federal funding, the group is highlighting cancer survivors who were treated at the organization's centers in a bid to tilt the debate in their favor. The organization is launching a $1 million national television and digital campaign with cancer survivors telling the story of Planned Parenthood - with ads tailored to the shows President Donald Trump watches, including spots playing on Morning Joe, Fox and Friends and in West Palm Beach markets this weekend, when
 Trump visits Mar-a-Lago." Full story. 

PROBAMACARE - Save My Care touts opposition to GOP health bill in robopolls of Alaska, Arizona, Maine and Nevada: A memo from the group argues that voters will be less likely to support legislators who vote for the current House bill and tests some provisions that Democrats are already thinking about weaponizing for 2018, including allowing insurance companies to charge older customers at a higher rate than current law permits. Read the memo here.

FOOD FOR THOUGHT - California voter-data expert Paul Mitchell writes in Capitol Weekly about how the new administration and new voter laws are affecting the next round of political campaigns: "We see increased public interest in political events, with voters seemingly at the edge of their seats awaiting the next move or tweet from the new Trump administration. ... But those putting together next year's campaigns are struggling to understand the nexus between this charged political atmosphere and what we generally expect to be a low turnout for the gubernatorial primary and a mediocre turnout for the general election. ... Will this level of engagement extend to June of next year, or will the
 public burn out? Will voters connect the dots between the national events and state elections?" Full story.

ADMINISTRATION SPEED READ - "Senator: Comey to say whether FBI probing Russia, Trump campaign by Wednesday," by CNN's Manu Raju and Tom LoBianco: "Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse said Tuesday that FBI Director James Comey promised to tell him Wednesday whether the FBI is investigating ties between Russia and the campaign of President Donald Trump. The Rhode Island Democrat said that Comey made the promise in a March 2 meeting with him and Sen. Lindsey Graham, a Republican from South Carolina. According to Whitehouse, Comey assured them he would confirm if an investigation exists 'and the scope of their Russia/Trump investigation because he had not been able to at that point say that there was
 one.'" Full story.

- "Trump Paid $38 Million in 2005 Federal Income Tax," via MSNBC: "DCReport.org obtained two pages from what it said were Trump's 2005 Form 1040. The site's founder, David Cay Johnston, a former reporter for The New York Times, disclosed the details of the two pages, which he said were sent to him through the U.S. Postal Service, on Maddow's program. The pages come from a part of the return that doesn't break down Trump's sources of income." Full story.

CODA - QUOTE OF THE DAY: "I think the CBO report provides useful information, but at the same time, the CBO director is not Moses, he's not walking down the mountain tops with stone tablets." - Sen. Tom Cotton (R-Ark.) to radio host Hugh Hewitt, on the much-discussed budget evaluation of the GOP health care bill.

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