Subject: ?Axios AM: Mike's Top 10 — Trump the arbitrator — Winners, losers in Trump's "hard power" budget — Mark Cuban on the change that's about to hit us (and POTUS naps)
From: "Mike Allen" <[email-masked]>
To: <[email-masked]>
Date: Thu, 16 Mar 2017 06:49:14 -0400 (EDT)

Presented by Qualcomm:

Trump the arbitrator — Winners, losers in Trump's "hard power" b=dget — Mark Cuban on the change that's about to hit us (and POTUS =aps)

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Presented By Qualcomm

Axios AM

By Mike Allen = ·Mar 16, 2017

New in the the Axios STREAM this morning: a cool card deck on "9 Supre=e Court cases that matter right now."

1 big thing: Trump the arbitrator

Ryancare is on its way to becoming Trumpcare. White Hou=e officials have been telling us that the repair-and-replace bill is more =luid than House leaders are portraying, and now we know what they mean.Trump, interviewed by Fox's Tucker Carlson in Detroit =esterday, said: "It's very preliminary ... A lot of things aren't consiste=t [with his campaign message of helping struggling workers]. But these are=going to be negotiated. We've got to go to the Senate."

Axio=' Jonathan Swan pointed out that the remarks are striking beca=se Speaker Ryan regards the package as a nearly finished product, although=aides say some tweaks were always planned.

Asked about a Bloomberg an=lysis with the headline, "Trump's Counties Lose Out to Clinton's in GO= Health Tax Cuts," Trump replied: "We will take care of our people or I'm =ot signing it, OK? Just so you understand. This is very preliminary."
<= style="margin-left: 20px;">"I'm, in a little way, I'm =n arbitrator. ... We got a lot of fighting going on."

Be=smart: Trump sees and fears the rising unpopularity of the Ryan p=an and will gladly accept whatever changes needed to get it through Congre=s — or drop the entire thing if looks like a political loser week= or months from now.

2. Trump's "hard power" budget

Greg Ruben / Axios

Trump's first budget proposal goes online at 7 a.m. Axios' Jonathan Sw=n reports it'll be heavy on defense and border security, and light on =ust about everything else:

Budget Director Mic= Mulvaney, who briefed White House reporters yesterday, said we should exp=ct an "America first budget" and "hard-power budget" as opposed to a "soft=power budget": Trump will bolster the Pentagon at the expense of the State=Department.

Wall funding: A supplemental 2017 req=est will include $1.5 billion for the wall this year and $2.6 billion in t=e 2018 budget. Mulvaney said he didn't know how much of the wall would be =uilt this year — but you can bet it'll end up costing vastly more =han these tiny initial requests.

WashPost's Phil =ucker asked Mulvaney how he squared Trump's campaign promise to help the i=ner cities with plans to cut the HUD budget. Mulvaney replied that the pre=ident was going after "wasteful programs ... programs that simply don't wo=k ... and a lot of those are in HUD."

3. Budget winners, losers

Trump's first budget, out at 7 a.m. from Office of Management and Budget=/ AP

Some programs would lose everything under Trump's budge=, AP's Cal Woodward points ou=:

"Trump proposes=to eliminate money for the Corporation for Public Broadcasting, the nation=l endowments for the arts and the humanities and more than a dozen other i=dependent agencies" (including Appalachian Regional Commission, Chemical S=fety Board, United States Institute of Peace, Corporation for National Com=unity Service and African Development Foundation).

Winne=s:

Pentagon: Trump proposes a 10% inc=ease.

Veterans Affairs: up 5.9%

H=meland Security: up 6.8%

National N=clear Security Administration: up 11%, or $1.4 billion, so that i= takes up more than half the Energy Department's budget, which would shrin= overall.

Opioid prevention and treatment: a proposed $500 million increase for HHS and Justice.

School choice: $1.4 billion more to expand school choice program=, bringing spending in that area to $20 billion, even as the Education Dep=rtment's overall budget would be cut by $9 billion, or 13%.

Losers:

EPA: facing a 31.4% cut= or $2.6 billion. The plan would cut 3,200 jobs at the agency.

Health and Human Services: facing the largest cut in dollar t=rms: $12.6 billion, or 16.2%. The plan would cut $5.8 billion from the nea=ly $32 billion National Institutes of Health.

and U.S. Agency for International Develo=ment: down 28%, or $10 billion. Foreign aid would be reduced, as =ould money to the U.N. and the World Bank.

La=or Department: more than 20% cut, or $2.5 billion. To be eliminat=d: a $434 million program that has helped more than 1 million people 55 an= older find jobs. Senior Community Service Employment Program is inefficie=t and unproven.

Agriculture Department: Nearly 21% cut, or $4.7 billion, achieved in part by cutting land acqui=ition in the National Forest System, rural water infrastructure and statis=ical capabilities at the department.

Transpor=ation Department: Trump proposes a cut of nearly 13%, including A=trak, local transit agencies, and rural communities that depend on federal=subsidies to obtain scheduled airline service.

IRS: IRS budget is down about $1 billion from its height in 2010= Since then, the agency has lost more than 17,000 employees. Chances of ge=ting audited have rarely been so low.

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4. The brakes ...

... on Trump migrant restrictions — Honolulu Star-Advertiser: "Trump=says a federal judge in Hawaii demonstrated "unprecedented judicial overre=ch" when he ordered a temporary halt to Trump's revised travel ban."
"U.S. District Court Judge =errick Watson [in Honolulu] granted the state's motion for a nationwide te=porary restraining order on the revised travel ban, saying Trump's order v=olates the religious establishment clause of the U.S. Constitution."
... on populism in Europe — BBC: "Dutch people rejected 'the wrong kind of populis=,' Prime Minister Mark Rutte ... said, as he celebrated victory in Wednesd=y's election. 'The Netherlands said "Whoa!"' ... [H]is party easily beat t=e anti-immigration Freedom party of Geert Wilders."

Why=it matters: Fellow Eurozone countries France and Germany also fac= elections this year. The Dutch race was seen as a test of support for nat=onalist parties that have been gaining ground across Europe.

The reaction: "Wilders insisted 'the patriotic sp=ing' would still happen. The euro gained as the results pointed to a clear=victory for the prime minister's party."

5. Futurecast: Mark Cuban on AI

Stef Kight / Axios

Mark Cuban — owner of the Dallas Mavericks, "Sh=rk Tank" star and billionaire three times over — joined me yester=ay for Axios' debut event, Get Connected:

On his obses=ion with artificial intelligence: "I've been in the technology bu=iness a long
time and we went from a period where we automated ... journals and
10-key adding machines ... with spreadsheets; then we connected
them into networks; and then we connected networks into the Internet. And t=at
was over the course of 30-plus years. What we are going to see over the nex= 5 years will dwarf that."

"It's going to change media. It's going to change the nature of work. It's going to change what w= expect from
people. It's going to change the
workforce. It's going to change the tax
structure."

"If you work for software, you're prob=bly
going to need to start looking for a job. ... [B]eing a philosophy major, a=foreign language major I think is going to
be far more valuable than being an accountant or being a lawyer."

<=trong>"Our president ... is saying,
"OK, we're going to build new factories.' Well, those new factories aren't=1975
factories. The question we're not asking
is: 'Those companies who are building factories, what's their net
employment going to be in two, three, four years?' And the reality is they'=e going to have 30%, 40% less employees, and when you have less employees =ou need
less real estate."

6. Tops in tech: Google v. Uber

Cover for overseas edition

"Fury Road: Did Uber Stea= the Driverless Future From Google? Inside the vicious patent fight ov=r self-driving technology," by Bloomberg Businessweek's Max Chafkin and Ma=k Bergen:

"Self-driving technology has become=a fixation for [Uber CEO Travis] Kalanick. Developing a driverless car, he=s often said, is 'existential' to Uber. If a competitor managed to get the=e first, it could easily replicate Uber's core service (shuttling passenge=s) without its single largest cost (paying drivers)."

"At =ssue is a business that both companies believe will be worth hund=eds of billions or even trillions of dollars a year."

"'Google is the Xerox Parc of self-driving cars,' says Ge=rge Hotz, the founder of Comma.ai, another autonomous car startup. It's a =ackhanded compliment: Although Xerox's Palo Alto Research Center invented =he modern computer operating system, it didn't bring the invention to mark=t; Apple Inc. did."

7. Breaking down the Trump rally

Andrew Witherspoon / Axios

The Trump rally has been on pause for two weeks, but its run since Elect=on Day has been record-setting, Axios' Chris Matthews writes from New York:

The "Trump trade"=/strong> has been dominated by the financial service sector. Banking analy=t Christopher Whalen says that's because banks have the most to gain from =eregulation, in the form of a Dodd-Frank overhaul.

Research published by George Mason University's Mercatus Center this=summer found income in 2012 would have been $13,000 higher per person had =he federal government added no regulations between 1980 and 2011.

=strong>But, but, but ... The costs of not regulating business �=80� like worse health and climate change — often don't show up i= GDP figures.

The takeaway: Eliminating regulatio= is the most potent ways for government to boost economic growth, but the =arket may be overestimating what Trump can deliver without 60 votes in the=Senate.

8. Tops in media trends

"The New York Times and The Washington Post are at war, and everyone's winn=ng," by Poynter's Benjam=n Mullin:

"As both newspapers unearth scoop after scoop and bui=d their subscriber rolls, Americans find themselves bearing witness to �=80� an old-fashioned newspaper war."

"The battle for supremacy h=s transcended daily stories … After The New York Times launched it= [confidential news] tips page, … The Washington Post and a spate =f competitors followed suit."

"Both newspapers are … spend=ng more to cover the White House."

"Both newspapers are … =aking a more active role in managing their public images. Faced with a pre=ident who is keen to take them down a peg at every opportunity, The Washin=ton Post and The New York Times each took steps to emphasize their roles a= sunshine-suppliers — The Post by minting a new slogan ('Democracy=Dies in Darkness') and The Times by launching a branding campaign in advan=e of the Oscars."

9. Mark Penn's Republican investment

Stagwell Media LLC, the private-equity fund formed by M=rk Penn, today will announce a minority stake in Targeted Victory, the Ale=andria-based GOP digital agency headed by CEO Zac Moffatt. Targeted Victor= leads digital marketing and fundraising programs for Speaker Ryan and the=NRSC, and served the presidential campaigns of Mitt Romney, Ted Cruz, Scot= Walker and Rick Perry.

Stagwell's stable: T=rgeted Victory gives Penn a right-side counterpart to SKDKnickerbocker, fo=nded by Democrats. Stagwell holdings also include the Harris poll, Nationa= Research Group, creative digital firm Code and Theory, and PMX Agency.
What it means for Targeted Victory: Moffatt says the=move accelerates current expansion into companies and brands: "People unde=estimate D.C. No other industry moves at the speed of politics."

<=trong>What it means for Stagwell: Penn told me that paired with S=DK, "Stagwell now has strong political communications capabilities on both=sides of the aisle. Commercial clients have a lot to learn from the politi=al model about how to use online communication to more effectively motivat= their customers."

Medium post, "Disrupting the marketers: What Stagwell =edia's investment means for us, and for the future of marketing"

10. 1 fun thing: Mark Cuban on Trump

Fun video here.

"He's Zool=nder. [Laughter.] ... I'm serious. He's oblivious to everything. =e reminds me of the coddled athletes that we have to deal with."

<=trong>On whether Trump is beatable in 2020: "Yeah, of course. Rig=t? Look, I'm a libertarian at heart ... I like some of his tax code, I lik= the fact he's trying to reduce bureaucracy. I like the fact that at least=he puts in an executive order he wants to minimize lobbying and its impact=."

"This is a guy who called me on the phone and =aid we were the Bobbsey Twins. 'Oh, you're just like me, Mark. We're the B=bbsey Twins.' That's what he said. How scary is that? But the reality is 9=% of the people who voted for him think he's doing a great job."

<=trong>"I swear he takes naps all day ... He gets done work at 7, = o'clock so he can go watch 'O'Reilly' and 'Hannity,' whatever, and sit on=the couch after eating a day of Kentucky Fried Chicken, a steak, and McDon=ld's. You turn on the shows. What's the first thing you do? You fall aslee=."

On whether he's thinking about running: "Yeah =.. I mean, there's no rush ... [I]t's only 60 days in, and there's still t=e opportunity that he will do a great job. ... I want him to succeed."

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