Subject: ?Axios AM: Mike's Top 10 — St. Patrick's Edition — Trump 101: The art of dealing with Donald — Global opening for liberal outsiders — How populist wave could strengthen — "Hillbilly" author — Vegas, baby
From: "Mike Allen" <[email-masked]>
To: <[email-masked]>
Date: Fri, 17 Mar 2017 06:48:35 -0400 (EDT)

Presented by Qualcomm:

Trump 101: The art of dealing with Donald — Global opening for l=beral outsiders — How populist wave could strengthen — "Hi=lbilly" author — Vegas, baby

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Presented By Qualcomm

Axios AM

By Mike Allen = ·Mar 17, 2017

1 big thing ... Trump 101: The art of dealing with Donald

Rebecca Zisser / Axios

Top CEOs have a new First Customer. With President Trum= taking a hands-on approach to negotiations, here are five tips for surviving=and thriving — based on conversations Jim VandeHei and I have =ad with executives, aides and friends who have battled Trump in private an= found some success:

Get to the table, wheth=r you love him or not. Trump is a transactional guy with unformed views on=many topics. He frequently seeks advice and occasionally takes it. While i= might feel right to buckle to pressure and refuse meetings, you lose your=leverage, instantly and profoundly.

Give him something he can call a win. Trump has an elastic view of winning, as seen by =is trumpeting of companies announcing new U.S. jobs that were set in motio= long before the president won. He needs something to tweet, but =ften needs the specifics filled in, several business leaders told us. The =asiest win is something, anything related to creating American jobs.
<=i>Find and exploit common ground — on people, rea= estate, politics or private aircraft. Trump has been most engaged and ope=-minded when dealing with aerospace companies (partly because he can talk =lanes, given that he owns a Boeing 757) and infrastructure execs (because =e spent his career building things). He has a surface-level-at-best unders=anding of most policies, so arcane policy discussions don't work. Use lang=age appropriate to his generation: He calls numbers "figures," and doesn't=use tech-speak.

If you refuse to meet with him o= put out anti-Trump messages, prepare to suffer revenge. He pays close att=ntion to critics, and his aides hand him printouts of anti-Trump statement= made by people or companies they don't like. They have a notional enemies=list that gets used for everything from rejecting appointments to key jobs= to deciding who gets a voice in policy debates.

Work Stev= Bannon and Jared Kushner. Both men sit it on key meetings, and o=ten get Trump alone afterward to shape reaction and follow up to interacti=n. Both are accessible by text and cell, and like playing the role of the =rump whisperer.

Then sit back and pray he doe=n't whack you with a Saturday morning tweet.

2. Bite du jour

White House budget director Mick Mulvaney, joining Spic=r at yesterday's briefing:

"Regarding the question as to climate ch=nge, I think the President was fairly straightforward — w='re not spending money on that anymore; we consider that to be a =aste of your money to go out and do that. So that is a specific tie to his=campaign." (h/t NYT)

Poll of the day … Poll for C-SPAN by Penn Schoen Berla=d, timed for #SunshineWeek and Gorsuch hearings (start Monday): 42% say Tr=mp's criticism of sitting judges is appropriate – including 20% of=Ds and 22% liberals … 76% say the Supreme Court should allow TV co=erage of oral arguments (15 points higher than when PSB asked the question=8 years ago).

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3. E-mailbag

Trump with Speaker Ryan and Irish Prime Minister Enda Kenny after a Frie=ds of Ireland lunch on Capitol Hill yesterday / Reuters' Kevin Lamarque

Some encouragement for Republicans =E2�� from a former top Democratic aide: "While reading your newsletter=this morning I had a thought. As someone who worked hard in [Speaker Pelos='s] office to pass the ACA/Obamacare, everyone forgets how many times the =ffort to overhaul healthcare was pronounced dead. Keep in mind it had to p=ss the House twice and it took 6-8 months longer than expected to get acro=s the finish line.

"While thin=s look challenging for the current ACA repeal effort they have pl=nty of time to get this done and they won't go into the next election with=ut something passing. This article [CNN from March 2010: Health care latest: =ems still chasing votes"] is a perfect example. I had forgotten that the b=ll passed the Senate in December and wasn't able to pass the House again u=til March."

Chaser from Charles Krauthammer col=mn in WashPost, "The real world of Obamacare repeal": "The Lord givet= and the Lord taketh away, but for governments it's not that easy. Once so=ething is given — say, health insurance coverage to 20 million Ame=icans — you take it away at your peril. This is true for any gover=ment benefit, but especially for health care.

"There's a reason not one Western democracy with so=e system of national health care has ever abolished it."

=/a>

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4. Rising stars: Sen. Tom Cotton (R-Ark.)

Cotton, during an AP interview yesterday in his office on Capitol Hill /=AP's Susan Walsh

Cotton the thorn ... "GO= senator complicates Trump, Ryan efforts on health care," by AP's Eric= Werner and Kevin Freking, with Andrew DeMillo in Little Rock: "One of the=loudest critics of GOP health legislation is not a Democrat or even a cons=rvative rebel, but a ... staunch defender of President Donald Trump":
=ul>
"Freshman Sen. Tom Cotton of Arkansas ... has carv=d out a hawkish and bold profile on foreign policy that many see as a plat=orm for a future presidential run."

39 years old =nation's youngest Senator) ... Iraq and Afghanistan combat veteran ... one=term House member before Senate ... double Harvard (undergrad and law) ...=McKinsey & Company alumnus.

Cotton in an interview: "The House majority could be at risk if we get health care reform wr=ng."

"Asked on Hugh Hewitt's radio s=ow about Cotton's opposition, Ryan replied, 'I love this, because we've go=ten criticized by other folks in the conservative movement for waiting too=long.'"

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5. Hot spots

Secretary of State Tillerson in South Korea ... "Milita=y action against North Korea 'an option'" — BBC: "He said [after visiting the Demilitarized Zone which=divides the two Koreas that] the policy of 'strategic patience' had ended =nd the US was exploring a new range of diplomatic, security and economic m=asures. ... He arrived in South Korea from Japan."

BTW ... A WashPost editorial today refers to him as "Secreta=y Silent."

6. Megatrends: Cracks in global left

Wall Street Journal front-pager, "Du=ch Vote Sets Tone for Coming Elections in Europe," by Marcus Walker:
<=l>
"Although the far-right Party for Freedom under Gee=t Wilders ... drew the global media limelight, the biggest shift at the po=ls was the collapse of the Netherlands' once-powerful Labor Party, which w=n less than 6% of the vote, compared with 25% in the last parliamentary el=ctions, in 2012.

In France, the incumbent Sociali=t Party is unpopular ... Italy's center-left Democratic P=rty is in danger of fracturing ... U.K.'s Labour Party i= struggling with unpopular leadership and internal squabbles. ... =nly the German Social Democrats, or SPD, appear =o be bucking the trend.

The big picture: "A commo= problem facing the center-left is the rise of immigration and identity as=central political issues alongside traditional concerns over jobs, pension= or public services. The result is a deepening conflict among the center-l=ft's voters."

But, but, but ... "As conservatives=tilt right and social democrats fade, a gap is opening up in the center gr=und. The numerous moderate voters who still tend to decide elections in We=tern Europe are showing themselves open to liberal outsiders."

7. Populist wave could get stronger

This article illuminates a twist we weren't expecting ... Economist cove= story, "The global economy enjoys a synchronized upswing ...=The past decade has been marked by a series of false economic dawns. This =ime really does feel different":

Key point: =In America, Europe, Asia and the emerging markets, for the first time sinc= a brief rebound in 2010, all the burners are firing at once. ... [A] long=awaited upswing lifts spirits and spreads confidence."

And=we know this: "But the political mood is sour. A populist rebelli=n, nurtured by years of sluggish growth, is still spreading. Globalisation=is out of favor."

But had you thought about this?=/strong> "This dissonance is dangerous. If populist politicians wi= credit for a more buoyant economy, their policies will gain credence."

8. "Hillbilly" author, on heading home

J. D. Vance, author of "Hillbilly Elegy," in the N.Y. T=mes with a Columbus, Ohio, dateline ... "Why I'm Moving Home": "For two years, I=d lived in Silicon Valley, surrounded by other highly educated transplants=with seemingly perfect lives. It's jarring to live in a world where every =erson feels his life will only get better when you came from a world where=many rightfully believe that things have become worse."

"My wife and I worry about the quality of=local public schools, and whether she (a San Diego native) could stand the=unpredictable weather. But there were practical reasons to move: I'm found=ng an organization to combat Ohio's opioid epidemic. We chose Columbus bec=use I travel a lot, and I need to be centrally located in the state and cl=se to an airport."

What he doesn't say: Friends spe=ulate he may run for office.

9. Stat of the day

Data: Bureau of Labor Statistics; Chart: Andrew Witherspoon / Axios

Why you should care about America's aging workforce … The percent o= the workforce that is 65 or older is at a record 5.9%, more than double i=s record low in the mid-1980s, Jill Mislinski of Advisor Perspectives poin=s out in a recent blog post.

Axios' Christopher Matthews unpacks that:

The good: It turns out that working l=nger is actually good for you, as studies show that those who work longer =end to live longer, too.

The bad: These data highlight the bifurcation of the A=erican economy. While it's great that some older Americans are taking adva=tage of work that is fulfilling and well paying, it's happening at the sam= time that a shrinking share of prime-age workers are doing the same thing= It's yet another example of how the modern economy is generous to some (u=ually the affluent and well-educated), while leaving others behind.

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10. 1 fun thing

"NCAA, Vegas Style: City celebrates with flair, betting and Musburger," =y USA Today's=Martin Rogers on The Strip: "Musburger popularized the phrase 'March Madness,' p=eviously used by an Illinois high school tournament, while broadcasting th= event for CBS in the early 1980s. After a long career with that network a=d ESPN, he is now based here as the lead host for VSiN, a new network that=targets the continually booming sports gambling fan base."

"The gambler is always the underdog here, but hey, this=is the first weekend of the tournament, the time when long shots with wide=eyes and big dreams confound the money line. Sometimes. … Virtuall= every casino is hosting extravagant watch parties."

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