Subject: Axios AM: Mike's Top 10 ?— "Let me finish" — "Hillbilly" author's new job — D.C.'s best bracket
From: "Mike Allen" <[email-masked]>
To: <[email-masked]>
Date: Wed, 22 Mar 2017 06:37:10 -0400 (EDT)

Presented by Starbucks:

"Let me finish" — "Hillbilly" author's new job — D.C.'s =est bracket

View in browser

Presented By Starbucks

Axios AM

By Mike Allen = ·Mar 22, 2017

Join me Friday for Treasury Secretary Steve =nuchin's first onstage interview, at 8 a.m. in downtown D.C. Click here to RSVP. This is the debut =f my News Shapers event series, sponsored by PepsiCo and their Quaker, Tro=icana and Naked nutrition brands. Shoot me your questions=at [email-masked].

1 big thing: "Let me finish"

Trump and HHS Secretary Tom Price arrive on Capitol Hill yesterday to ra=ly support on health-care reform / AP's J. Scott Applewhite

Trump's need for Yes Men ... and even greater need for =o Men (and Women).

Tomorrow night's pivotal healthc=re repeal vote in the House — on Day 63 of the Trump presidency =E2�� will be super-tight. One on-the-scene vote counter tells me that = more hard nays would kill it.

Leadership aides and top lobb=ists tell us it'll ultimately pass for a single reason: Given the=country's political geography (and House Republicans' well-founded fear of=primaries), in the end, the bubble members are going to have trouble sayin= "no" to Trump personally.

But on "Morning Joe," J=e Scarborough says he talks to members who are no longer afraid of Trump =E2�� they're frustrated by him.

In the =est Wing, the single biggest mistake Trump has made is not elevat=ng someone who can and will say "no" to him, and make it stick.

One discouraged confidant, worried that the Russia investigat=on will be a long-term problem, emails: "DJT has been sort of brilliant at=times about navigating things. But ... he was never held accountable by an=one."

"Here's the lesson: ... When you operate by the seat of your pants for too long, you will e=entually get tripped up."

Tom Friedman's N.Y. Times=column today is a memo to Trump's War Cabinet ("the five adults with th= most integrity in the Trump administration"), urging them to act as Trump=s parents.

The Daddy for today is burly ec=nomic adviser Gary Cohn, according to the juiciest (and last) paragraph o= an account by the N.Y. Times' Thrush and Haberman of=White House aides' "nearly paralytic inability to tell Mr. Trump that he h=s erred or gone too far on Twitter."

"In a recent meeting in the Oval Office, Mr. Cohn was speaki=g when Mr. Trump interrupted him. 'Let me finish,' Mr. Cohn interjected ..= Trump, unaccustomed to ceding the floor, let him make his point."

<=trong>No one else does that. Frank Bruni writes in his N.Y. Times=column today, "Tweeting Toward Oblivion," that Trump's demons are winnin=: "He can tweet, or he can govern. ... Trump is no victim. He's the luckie=t man alive — or has been, until now." This is the week that it ei=her runs out — or the series gets extended.

2. Breaking

"Manafort's pl=n to 'greatly benefit the Putin Government,'" by AP's Jeff Ho=twitz: "Trump's former campaign chairman, Paul Manafort, secretly worked f=r a Russian billionaire to advance the interests of Russian President Vlad=mir Putin a decade ago and proposed an ambitious political strategy to und=rmine anti-Russian opposition across former Soviet republics."

=strong>"The work appears to contradict assertions by the Trump ad=inistration and Manafort himself that he never worked for Russian interest=."

"Manafort pitched the plans to Russian aluminu= magnate Oleg Deripaska, a close Putin ally with whom Manafort eventually =igned a $10 million annual contract beginning in 2006."

"In a statement to the AP, Manafort confirmed that he w=rked for Deripaska in various countries but said the work was being unfair=y cast as 'inappropriate or nefarious' as part of a 'smear campaign.'"

3. Will the Trump Rally become the Trump Tank?

The lunchtime Fox Business headline blared: "STOCKS DRO= AMID UNCERTAINTY OVER REPUBLICAN HEALTH CARE PLAN." And, even more, tax r=form. The Wall Street Journal's "=eard on the Street" column yesterday afternoon: "Why Trump's Tax Cut M=y Be Later and Smaller Than Investors Think."

Stocks yesterd=y had their biggest slide sine the election, "as investors rethin= the crowded Trump trade," per WSJ p. B1. The S&P 500 fell 1.24% �=80� the first 1% drop since way back in October.

Many mark=t watchers are wondering if this is the official end of the Trump=rally, Axios' Chris Matthews writes from New York.

A survey =f money managers circulated yesterday among Bank of America clien=s suggests it is:

Reasons for optimism: Invest=rs believe that 2017 will bring us both higher global growth, higher corpo=ate profits, and lower corporate taxes. More than half of respondents say =ax reform will get done this year.

Reasons for pessimism<=strong>: A higher share of investors say the market is overvalued than at =ny point since 2000. A plurality think that the eventual trigger for a rec=ssion will be Federal Reserve rate hikes.

A message from Starbucks

Power of coffee: Starbucks thanks customers for �=80�Year of Good”

Starbucks customers have helped provide:

Full college tuit=on to over 6,500 Starbucks partners (employees)

Over 8,000 U.S. ve=erans and military spouses find work at Starbucks

10,000 young peo=le facing barriers with jobs at Starbucks

Watch “A Year of Good.�=9D

4. Calculus and calendar

Rebecca Zisser / Axios

"Why the Trumpcare vote could hurt Republicans no matter ho= they vote," by Axios' Caitlin Owens and Bob Herman: Members=are "left with a terrible choice: Vote against Obamacare repeal after camp=igning on repeal for seven years, or vote to cover 24 million fewer people=and potentially raise premiums for senior citizens."

"It's not every day — or maybe=ever — that the far-right, the left and nearly every health care g=oup are on the same page. But these three different factions all oppose th= House bill. It's mainly establishment Republicans that support it=/strong>."

Chris Krueger of Cowen Washington Resear=h Group has the paragraph of the day in his D.C. Download:

"The GOP is going to attempt legislati=e Triple Lindy: pass AHCA [GOP's American Health Care Act] in House Thursd=y night, use reconciliation in Senate next week & final vote around Fr=day (3/31), then House eats Senate bill before April 7 Recess. Using Reces= as a hammer is a tried and true strategy, though this requires an ironcla= deal in Senate within a week."

Krueger's calculus:

70% chance for House passage Thursday.
40% odds of the Triple Lindy.
Drew Altman, president and CEO of the Kaiser Family Fo=ndation, moves his column to Axios! His debut, "Why deductibles wou=d rise under the GOP health care plan": "When advocates of the AHCA ta=k about expanding choice of lower cost plans, keep in mind that they are f=cusing on the premiums, not the overall costs to consumers."

5. Quote of the day

SecState Tillerson last week with Gen. Vincent K. Brooks as a North Kore=n soldier takes a pic through a window at the U.N. Command Military Armist=ce Commission in the border village of Panmunjom, which separate the two K=reas / AP photo

SecState Rex Tillerson, to IJR's Erin McPike: "I didn't want this job. I didn't seek t=is job. ... My wife told me I'm supposed to do this. ... When he asked me =t the end of that conversation to be secretary of state, I was stunned."
McPike: '"He was so cagey when Russia came up ... tha= his answer wasn't even worthy of inclusion."

6. #1 point from Court confirmation

At yesterday's hearing, Supreme Court Justice nominee Neil Gorsuch talks=about playing basketball with former Justice Byron White / AP's Susan Wals=

Judge Neil Gorsuch endured 11-plus hours of Senate ques=ioning yesterday during his Supreme Court confirmation hearing. Today is t=ird and likely last day. AP says he's "largely unscathed."

Asked about =/strong>Trump's "so-called judge" tweet, Gorsuch said: " I find that dishe=rtening, I find that demoralizing."

Tom Goldstein o= SCOTUSblog had this read-between-the-lines on NPR's "All Things Considered":

"The big issue in the law between conse=vatives and liberals is this thing called originalism ... the idea that yo= interpret the Constitution the way it was understood when it was written.=And other judges, including conservative nominees who've come before this =ommittee before going on the Supreme Court, have said: Well, you know, we =on't have one strict rule for how we interpret the Constitution.

"But Judge Gorsuch took the very=hard line that Justice Scalia did when he was a justice, and that is: We a=ways look back to how the Constitution was originally understood, and then=we apply that to modern problems. So that's a very conservative vi=w of the law."

7. The great ad scam

"Almost 20% of digital ad spending could be wasted," pe= Axios' Sara Fischer: "A new study estimates that $12.48 =illion of ad spending in 2016 was fraud, or was the result in invalid traf=ic, which is double the earlier $7.2 billion industry estimate."

Why this matters: The amount lost to digital ad fraud is greater than the total digita= advertising revenue for all of the 80 premium publishers of Digital Conte=t Next, a trade group which includes the AP, NBC, NPR, PBS, Turner and many more.

8. Top-eds

Wall Street Journal editorial, "A President's Credibility": "[T]he President clings to his [wiretapping] assertion like a drunk to=an empty gin bottle ... [I]f he doesn't show more respect for the truth mo=t Americans may conclude he's a fake President."

"How the Wh=te House Got James Comey Wrong," by New Yorker's Ryan Lizza: "[T]he larger takeaway from the White House's s=in is that the top people around Trump may have no idea how much exposure =he President has on the issue of Russian collusion."

"Realit= creeps into the reality show" — David Ignat=us column in WashPost: "He is often described as a narcissist= but he's not suicidal. ... With his approval rating below 40 percent, he =eeds to broaden his base. Trump wants to disrupt, but he also wants to suc=eed."

"Falsehoods that endanger national security" —=Susan Rice, national security adviser to President Obama, op-ed in WashPost: "U.S. po=er is frequently a function of our ability to rally other countries ... [S=hould America someday determine that Iran is violating the nuclear accord,=we may struggle to convince other nations to re-impose sanctions if they d=ubt our intentions or the evidence we present."

9. Tops in tech

Uber damage control ... "Uber will release its first di=ersity report this month," by Axios' Kia Kokalitcheva: "Several journalist= pointed out that all executives on the call were women, while CEO Travis =alanick and board member and investor Bill Gurley were busy with interview=ng potential COO candidates. Hornsey and Huffington both said that they we=e also involved with the COO search."

Steve Case announces: =/strong>"J.D. Vance, an experienced Silicon Valley tech investor and the b=stselling author of 'Hillbilly Elegy,' has joined Revolution LLC as a Part=er, where he will work to expand the firm's Rise of the Rest initiative, w=ich shines a spotlight on startup ecosystems located outside of Silicon Va=ley, New York City, and Boston. Vance's focus will include identifying and=investing in startups, and exploring ways to get more institutional capita=to invest in entrepreneurs in these rising cities."

=img width="32" height="32" style="border: none" target="_blank" sr=="https://static.axios.com/img-email/email-circle.png" alt="Email this=Story">

10. 1 fun thing

Few March Madness brackets were left intact after Villa=ova, last year's champion, was upset in Round 2 by the Wisconsin giant-sla=ers. The best bracket in D.C. may belong to Greta Van Sus=eren, who entered a $5 pool at MSNBC and was proudly displaying her entry =n the anchor desk when I stopped by last night's show.

Van S=steren, an Appleton native and Packers shareholder, is a 1976 Wis=onsin graduate and faithfully picks the Badgers to go all the way every ye=r: "A little bit stupidity, a little bit loyalty."

=img width="32" height="32" style="border: none" target="_blank" sr=="https://static.axios.com/img-email/twitter-circle.png" alt="Tweet th=s Story">

A message from Starbucks

Starbucks committed to hiring 10,000 veteran and mi=itary spouses

In 2013, Starbucks committed to hiring at least 10,000 veterans and mili=ary spouses by 2018. Meet retired Marine Corps Master Sargent George Page,=a store manager at Starbucks in San Diego. Watch the video.

Axios, 3100 Clarendon B‌lvd, Suite 200, Arlington VA 22201

You received this email because you signed up for newsletters from Axios.
Change your preferences or unsubscribe here.=/a>

Was this email forwarded to you?

Sign up now to get Axios in your inbox.

Follow Axios=on social media:

=                     &nb=p;