Subject: ?Axios AM: Mike's Top 10 — Lessons from a debacle — Justice Dept. confronted over missing D.C. teens — Facebook petting zoo
From: "Mike Allen" <[email-masked]>
To: <[email-masked]>
Date: Fri, 24 Mar 2017 05:55:12 -0400 (EDT)

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Lessons from a debacle — Justice Dept. confronted over missing D=C. teens — Facebook petting zoo

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Axios AM

By Mike Allen = ·Mar 24, 2017

My onstage conversation with Treasury Secretary Steve M=uchin, the debut of my Axios News Shapers event series, will air live on C=SPAN 2 at 8 a.m.

1 big thing: Lessons from a debacle

Trump in the driver's seat! Twitter loved #TrumpTruck: The president pre=ends to drive an 18-wheeler, parked on the South Lawn for a meeting with t=uckers and CEOs about healthcare / AP's Andrew Harnik

The fate of the healthcare bill is unknowable after yes=erday's embarrassing delay and President Trump's strong-arm gamble of dema=ding a vote today. "Failure is an option," Axios' David Nather writes.

But lessons from the debacle are already=apparent:

For tax reform, the White House and =ongressional leaders should consider splitting key elements into separate =easures that have a better chance of success than a massive package. "Cong=ess can only absorb so much political pain on the way to making big change=," a top lobbyist told me.

Glenn Thrush and Maggie Haberman, in a N.Y. Times front-pager hea=lined "A Brave Front, but Regrets? He Has a Few," say Trump focused on the=fight too late: "Trump has told four people close to him that he regrets g=ing along with ... Ryan's plan to push a health care overhaul before unvei=ing a tax cut proposal more politically palatable to Republicans. ... Trum= was slow to recognize the high stakes of the fight, or the implications o= losing. He approved the agenda putting health care first late last year, =lmost in passing."

Tucker Carlson, looking ahead =o immigration reform on his Fox show last night, said Trump needs to emplo= fear sooner, and propose his own policy: "If the president wants an immig=ation bill, the White House ought to present its plan — not talkin= points, but a real plan, with details — explain what it is, why =t works, how it will make the American middle class stronger than it alrea=y is, and then wield the stick. Make it plain that if Republican =embers of Congress won't back that bill, the White House will support prim=ry efforts by those who will."

Dan Balz, in a fro=t-page Wash=ost column,"In a do-or-die moment, Republicans come undone": "Trump's =eputation as the closer in chief has taken a hit — and on the firs= big test of his presidency. The greater damage has been to the reputation=of House Speaker Paul D. Ryan ... as the savvy intellectual godfather of a=new conservative agenda around which his party could rally."

2. The inside game

White House chief strategist Steve Bannon and Chief of Staff Reince Prie=us arrive for a House Republican meeting / AP's Alex Brandon

The top players' thinking going into today, per Axios' Jonathan Swan:

"=rump's message to leadership: give me your vote list and I'll bre=k arms."

"The GOP leadership's view was that they=re still short on the vote count, and ... simply calling a vote is not goi=g to cause the whip count to go up. Members don't want to vote on somethin= that will fail."

"The White House took a differe=t view ... Top administration officials believe the vote is close, that it=needs to happen."

AP timeline: "Procedural vo=e possible 10 a.m. EDT, final passage possible afternoon."

R=gardless of the outcome, Trump has succeeded in one thing: He has=maneuvered so that if the bill passes, he gets the credit. If it fails, Ry=n gets the blame.

CNN's Dana Bash emailed her coll=ague Brian Stelter, for his Reliable Sources newsletter: "What is r=ally fascinating is standing in the hallway right now with Steve Bannon =E2�� who ran a web site egging on the conservative hell no caucus �=80� now meeting with them trying to get them to yes."

Dems=gloat ... Axios in-box, from a savvy Democrat, with subject line =Unraveling": "It has always been the case that as soon as Trump had to mak= policy choices, his ability to be all things to all people would evaporat= ... taxes next, then the budget, then trade — and don't forget ab=ut the dumb wall, which border-state members secretly hate. Oh, and then t=ere is Russia."

3. Coming attraction?

Shot ... Fox's James Rosen: "Republican congression=l investigators expect a potential 'smoking gun' establishing that the Oba=a administration spied on the Trump transition team, and possibly the pres=dent-elect himself, will be produced to the House Intelligence Committee t=is week."

Chaser ... "Rick Gates, the longtime dep=ty to ... Trump's former campaign chairman Paul Manafort, was forced to le=ve his position with [America First Policies,] a nonprofit supporting Trum= this week due to his longstanding relationship with Manafort."

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4. If you live in D.C., these are your neighbors

Rep. Cedric Richmond (D-La.), chair of the Congressional Black Caucus, c=lled on Attorney General Jeff Sessions and FBI Director James Comey to loo= into the spate of missing D.C. teens / AP's Andrew Harnik

"Black lawmakers call on FBI to help on missing black g=rls," by AP's Jesse Holland: "Black members of Con=ress are calling for the Justice Department to help police investigate a l=rge number of missing children in Washington, D.C."

"[O]fficials said there has been no increase =n the numbers of missing persons ... 'We've just been posting them on soci=l media more often.'"

This issue got on our radar e=rlier this week when WTOP's Neal Augenstein posted, "DC police address con=erns over missing teens":

"The=figure is startling — more than a dozen black and Latina =eens [most of them girls] have been reported missing in D.C. since March 1= The apparent jump in the number of missing young people in the District h=s raised concern in neighborhoods and on social media."

@Jim=andeHei tweeted: "TWELVE [teens] missing since march 1 in 1 corne= of DC and police say this is BELOW norm. Short walk from Capitol Hill ...=Read this and imagine this was happening in Bethesda or Old Town, Alexandr=a...and police say this is normal."

5. Warning signs

Andrew Witherspoon / Axios

"The bank lending slowdown is bad news for U.S. economy=" Axios' Chris Matthews writes from New York:

In a research note to clients, UBS Strategist St=phen Caprio argues that investor confidence — evidenced by high st=ck market valuations — may may be misplaced, given a recent slowdo=n in bank lending.

Why it matters: Companies are =ssuing less debt due to a mix of uncertainty regarding tax and spending po=icy, already high debt levels in the U.S. corporate sector, and the threat=of higher interest rates. Investors are counting on stronger global growth=to help U.S. companies overcome these headwinds, but they may be discounti=g the chances that some sort of shock — like the 2014 oil price co=lapse — constrains growth and triggers a stock market pullback or =orrection.

6. Mogul-watch

Rupert Murdoch got $1 for selling back his $125 million=investment in shares of Theranos, the battered blood-testing start-up, per=a Wall Street Journal story on p. B1.

Why he did it: "so he could take an investment loss for tax pur=oses, potentially saving millions of dollars in taxes owed on other income="

Disney Chairman and CEO Robert Iger, 66, "p=eviously was expected to leave the company at the end of June 2018. His ne= deal ends July 2, 2019." (L.A. Times)=/p>

7. Facebook's petting zoo

Vincent DiForte — a Facebook product marketing=manager visiting D.C. from HQ in Menlo Park, Calif. — seemed to i=hale an onslaught of pizza slices last night as he showed me Facebook Came=a, a feature being tested to the left of News Feed in a dozen overseas mar=ets, including Ireland, Spain and Taiwan.

The Snapchatty to=ls also let you shoot lasers out of your eyes, and give a photo t=e blue and gold brushstrokes of van Gogh's "The Starry Night."

=strong>Where was this? The demo was part of Facebook Loft, a "coc=tails and conversation" party for Hill staff, think-tankers and more at Lo=gView Galley, presided over by Joel Kaplan, Facebook's V.P. of Global Publ=c Policy. This was the Loft's first stop this year, after earlier visits t= Chicago, Miami, New York and Austin.

What did you see? <=strong>It's sort of a petting zoo for Facebook products. At the Oculus sta=ion (Rift, Touch and Gear VR), you could climb a mountain or battle evil r=bots. To promote Facebook Safety Check, a pop-up version of an IMAX theate= (looked like a yurt) too= you inside a tornado in Lawrence, Kan.

Why i= matters: Facebook, after a wave of controversies, is trying to t=ll its story better.

8. "The world's most remarkable firm"

Economist cover story, "Corporate ambitions ... Amazon=... is just getting started":

"Amazon will have to grow faster than almost any big company in modern history to justify =ts valuation."

"Amazon's business model will ... =ncourage regulators to think differently. Investors value Amazon's growth =ver profits; that makes predatory pricing more tempting."

"[F]irms could increasingly depend on tools provided =y their biggest rival. If Amazon does become a utility for commerce, the c=lls will grow for it to be regulated as one."

The biggest =hreat: "[S]uccess will bring it into conflict with an even strong=r beast: government."

9. Transforming, inspiring the world

The issue has two covers: Jack Ma for subscribers and Theo Epstein for =ewsstand.

Fortunes's 2017 World's Greatest Leaders:

=. Theo Epstein – President, Baseball Operations, Chicago Cubs
=li>2. Jack Ma – Executive Chairman, Alibaba Group

3. Pope Francis

4. Melinda Gates – Co-chair, Bill &am=; Melinda Gates Foundation

5. Jeff Bezos – Fo=nder and CEO, Amazon

7. H.R. McMaster– U.S. N=tional Security Adviser

9. John McCain – U.S.=Senator, Arizona

12. John Kasich – Governor, =hio

13. Rep. John Delaney (D-Md.), for his advocacy on infrastructure
23. Joe Biden

Full list here.

10. 1 fun thing

"Historic move": Women rising at ESPN ... "Samantha Ponder, Suzy Kolber will replace Chris Berman on ESPN's Sunda= and Monday NFL shows," per Yahoo Sports:

"Ponder is just the third host of 'Sunday NF= Countdown' in its 32-year history: Bob Ley was the original host when it =egan in 1985, with Berman taking over a year later. The wife of former NFL=quarterback Christian Ponder, Samantha Ponder has been part of the network=s college football broadcasts."

Bonus fun t=ing: "Las Vegas casinos are favoring North Carolina as the NCAA T=urnament resets to a 16-team field. Futures odds compiled by Pregame.com .=. show the Tar Heels as a 5-1 favorite, followed by Kansas at 6-1 and Gonz=ga and Arizona each at 7-1." (AP)

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A message from Starbucks

Starbucks hits military hiring goal, and drives to =5,000 by 2025

Starbucks reached its initial goal to hire 10,000 veterans and military =pouses 1 year ahead of schedule. The company proudly increased its goal to=25,000 hires by 2025. Starbucks will also create 100 more Military Family =tores in the next 5 years. Learn More.

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