Subject: ?Axios AM: Mike's Top 10 — Defusing the shutdown bomb — "Alarm bells" in markets — Reining in robots — Josh Earnest to NBC
From: "Mike Allen" <[email-masked]>
To: <[email-masked]>
Date: Mon, 27 Mar 2017 06:25:11 -0400 (EDT)

Presented by Bank of America:

Defusing the shutdown bomb — "Alarm bells" in markets — =eining in robots — Josh Earnest to NBC

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Presented By Bank of America

Axios AM

By Mike Allen = ·Mar 27, 2017

Good Monday morning! I'm back from a quick w=ekend in New Orleans, where I met up with nephew Anders, a high-school sen=or, on his SEC college swing. We — along with his dad, Nels �=94 had brunch with Walter Isaacson in the French Quarter and heard about h=s globetrotting research for his new book, "Leona=do da Vinci," out Oct. 17.

Favor: So we can se=ve you better, I'd appreciate your taking =his quick reader survey — just 10 Qs, mostly multiple choice. =t 10, you'll be asked about your interest in joining our Axios Reader Advi=ory Board. Thank you for reading, and helping!

1 big thing: Defusing the shutdown bomb

A Suburban in Trump's motorcade enters Trump National Golf Club in Potom=c Falls, Va., for his outing yesterday / AP's Manuel Balce Ceneta

A top Republican with close ties to the White House tel=s me that after the GOP failure on healthcare, a government shutdown �=80� looming when a continuing resolution runs out April 28 — is="more likely than not. ... Wall Street is not exp=cting a shutdown and the markets are unprepared."

A=d Chris Krueger of Cowen Washington Research Group today will war= financial clients: "Hello April 29 government shutdown."

Th=t's Day 100 of the Trump presidency, by the way.

A=senior GOP aide disputed the bearish forecasts: "The White House =nd Republicans on the Hill cannot/won't risk a shutdown. Given the last we=k — it's out of the question."

Reality check: While the GOP may have the will, party strategist= don't see the way: The bleak House GOP math remains, with no sig= it'll change. And the GOP can't count on the twin hail Marys floated over=the weekend: enlisting moderate Dems (as we reported yesterday), or the Congressiona= Black Caucus (as Jonathan Swan revealed in =is Sunday-night newsletter, Sneak Peek).

The message CEOs=took from Friday's fiasco, according to an execu=ive at a money-center bank: "Holy crap! We may be facing the same crap on = shutdown threat, and on the debt ceiling. Holy crap! We may not get tax r=form, or a repatriation bill, or infrastructure spend, or substantial chan=es to regulations."

Be smart: Job 1 =or Republicans, who technically control the government, is to convince inv=stors and voters that they have some path to getting things done. =ut first (Russert homage!), they'll have to con=ince themselves.

2. Siren: Markets spooked after GOP debacle

Depressed mood in markets worldwide — Reuters: Trump's los= on repeal-and-replace "spurred a rush to safety assets such as gold and t=e Japanese yen ... So-called 'Trumpflation trades' — betting on an=extended recovery in the U.S. and global economies and related assets such=as commodities — came under heavy selling pressure."

"These Charts Show Alarm Bells Ringing on t=e Trump Trade" — Bl=omberg: "Dollar poised to wipe out entire post-Trump election=rally ... Volatility, short bets rise after Obamacare repeal failure."
=p>Or no worries? Wall Street Journal =ront-pager, "A Correction Now Might Not Be So Bad, Some Inves=ors Say: After the postelection rally, many say a 10% retreat is overdue a=d would be healthy for the market."

Today's test ... Axios' Chris Matthews writes from New York: Investors continue to debate =ow much of the stock run-up relies on the belief that Trump will deliver b=siness-friendly reforms. Trading today will provide a test for those who a=gue that the so-called Trump rally has been mostly the result of f=ster global growth rather than the promise of lower corporate tax=s.

Stimulus, regardless? Even with Republican =ysfunction, analysts are still baking pro-growth legislation into their fo=ecasts: Wall Street will love the idea, floated over the weekend, that the=Trump administration can turn to moderate Democrats to help pass tax and t=x reform and infrastructure bills.

High Frequency Economic=' Jim O'Sullivan: "We still expect the eventual =nactment of tax reform legislation that results in lower marginal rates an= at least modest short-run fiscal stimulus."

3. If you read only 1 thing

Vanity Fair

Maureen Dowd for Vanity Fair, "El=n Musk's billion-dollar crusade to stop the A.I. apocalypse: Musk is f=mous for his futuristic gambles, but Silicon Valley's latest rush to embra=e artificial intelligence scares him. ... Inside his efforts to influence =he rapidly advancing field and its proponents, and to save humanity from m=chine-learning overlords":

Musk [says] this .. one reason we needed to colonize=Mars [is] so that we'll have a bolt-hole if A.I. goes rogue and turns on h=manity. ...

You'd thi=k that anytime Musk, Stephen Hawking, and Bill Gates are all rais=ng the same warning about A.I. — as all of them are — it w=uld be a 10-alarm fire. But, for a long time, the fog of fatalism over the=Bay Area was thick. ...

Some in Silicon Valley argue that Musk is interested less in sa=ing the world than in buffing his brand, and that he is exploiting a deepl= rooted conflict: the one between man and machine, and our fear that the c=eation will turn against us. They gripe that his epic good-versus-evil sto=y line is about luring talent at discount rates and incubating his own A.I= software for cars and rockets.

A message from Bank of America

Why responsible growth is making a difference in co=munities

At Bank of America, our Responsible Growth strategy is helping us improv= our customers’ financial lives. We’re creating a positive=and lasting impact by focusing on our business, our employees and our comm=nities. Read more.

4. Zuck's red-state road trip

Rebecca Zisser / Axios

Mark Zuckerberg announced on his Facebook page in early=January that his "personal challenge" for the year was to travel the rough=y 30 states he'd never visited. Axios' David McCabe writes that a few months =nto his project, there's an early message: "Less Crunchies, more Country M=sic Association Awards."

Zuckerberg has chatte= with military spouses in North Carolina and sped around a racetrack with =ale Earnhardt, Jr. He sat down with the coaches of more than one revered S=uthern college sports program and talked about diversity at a historically=black university. Once an atheist, he now drops in on church services.The bottom line: With each glossy photo and polished =acebook post, Zuckerberg is seen as having a presence beyond Menlo Park. I='s the gaffe-proof precision of the campaign trail, deployed by one of the=world's most powerful companies and executives, while allowing Zuckerberg =o connect with his user base.

5. Steve Case's advice ...

... to the tech community about working with Trump, in =a href="http://link.axios.com/click/9246986.38410/aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuYXhpb3=uY29tL3N0ZXZlLWNhc2UtZnV0dXJlLWlubm92YXRpb24taXMtb3V0c2lkZS1vZi1zaWxpY29uL=ZhbGxleS0yMzMxMDAxODk1Lmh0bWw_dXRtX3NvdXJjZT1uZXdzbGV0dGVyJnV0bV9tZWRpdW09=W1haWwmdXRtX2NhbXBhaWduPW5ld3NsZXR0ZXJfYXhpb3NhbQ/5871993924c17c54d77a8b8c=38a42799" target="_blank">an interview with Kim Hart breaking this m=rning in Login, our tech newsletter:

<=trong>"I'm definitely in the camp of it's better=to engage, better to be in the room, better to try to influence minds and =nfluence policy than to sit on the sidelines. If we don't have that, we're=going to end up with policies that are likely are not going to do what we =eed to see to make sure we remain the most innovative, entrepreneurial nat=on."

6. Stat du jour

AP/Raleig=: "Despite Republican assurances that North Carolina's 'bathr=om bill' isn't hurting the economy, the law limiting LGBT protections will=cost the state more than $3.76 billion in lost business over a dozen years= according to an Associated Press analysis."

It gets wo=se: "North Carolina could lose hundreds of millions more because =he NCAA is avoiding the state, usually a favored host. The group is set to=announce sites for various championships through 2022, and North Carolina =on't be among them as long as the law is on the books. The NAACP also has =nitiated a national economic boycott."

=img width="32" height="32" style="border: none" target="_blank" sr=="https://static.axios.com/img-email/email-circle.png" alt="Email this=Story">

7. New Jared and Ivanka projects

Ivanka Trump and Jared Kushner during Trump's news conference with Germ=n Chancellor Angela Merkel in the East Room on March 17 / AP's Andrew Harn=k

Trump today will announce a White House Office of American Innovation, l=d by Jared Kushner, his son-in-law and senior adviser: "Among those workin= on the effort are National Economic Council director Gary Cohn, Dina Powe=l, senior counselor to the president for economic initiatives and deputy n=tional security adviser, Chris Liddell, assistant to the president for str=tegic initiatives and Reed Cordish, assistant to the president for intrago=ernmental and technology initiatives. All have extensive business experien=e."

WashPost lead story, "Kushner to lead overhaul initiative," by Ashley Parker and Phil Rucker: "Viewed in=ernally as a SWAT team of strategic consultants, the office will be staffe= by former business executives and is designed to infuse fresh thinking in=o Washington, float above the daily political grind and create a lasting l=gacy for a president still searching for signature achievements. ...
<= style="margin-left: 20px;">"Kushner is positioning the=new office as ... an aggressive, nonideological ideas factory capable of a=tracting top talent from both inside and outside of government, and servin= as a conduit with the business, philanthropic and academic communities."<=p>
Ivanka Trump is off to Berlin late next month for a =ummit on the economic empowerment of women — the W20, within the G=0 — after German Chancellor Angela Merkel invited her at a White H=use luncheon, in front of POTUS, to join with her perspective on the role =f women in the global economy.

The invitation=first leaked out from German sources.This'll be Ivanka's first foreign trip since the inau=uration.

AP's Catherine Lucey: "The meeting marked the second time =oreign leaders reached out to Ivanka Trump to coordinate an economic conve=sation. During Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau's visit last month, =he helped organize a meeting on economic development opportunities for wom=n."

8. A crucial paragraph

From Robert Draper's cover story in next week's N.Y. Ti=es Magazine, "Trump vs. Congress: Now What?":

When I spoke with Trump, I ventured that, based=on available evidence, it seemed as though conservatives probably shouldn'= hold their breath for the next four years expecting entitlement reform. T=ump's reply was immediate. "I think you're right," he said. In fact, Trump=seemed much less animated by the subject of budget cuts than the subject o= spending increases. "We're also going to prime the pump," he said. "You k=ow what I mean by 'prime the pump'? In order to get this" — the ec=nomy — "going, and going big league, and having the jobs coming in=and the taxes that will be cut very substantially and the regulations that=ll be going, we're going to have to prime the pump to some extent. In othe= words: Spend money to make a lot more money in the future. And that'll ha=pen." A clearer elucidation of Keynesian liberalism could not have been de=ivered by Obama.

9. First look: New Josh Earnest role

Josh Earnest will be announced today as an NBC News and=MSNBC political analyst, debuting this morning on "Today" and "Morning Joe= (8:30, on-set at 30 Rock). From the forthcoming internal memo by NBC New =resident Noah Oppenheim and MSNBC President Phil Griffin:

"Josh recently completed a ten-year ru= with President Obama, most recently serving as White House Press Secretar= from 2014-2017. ... A native of Kansas City, Josh graduated from Rice Uni=ersity with a degree in political science and policy studies. With his wea=th of experience and insight, Josh will be a great addition to our roster =f contributors and will be an asset for our two networks as we continue to=cover the White House, Congress and politics beyond the Beltway."

Mary Katharine Ham is profiled in the A=ril issue of Washingtonian, by Elaina Plott: "The 36-year-old has asse=ted herself as one of the few conservative ideologues left on television, =omeone who's comfortable both praising and denouncing Trump, even as the p=evailing mood of hyper-partisanship almost prescribes committing to one or=the other. ... Ham would rather persuade."

Steve Hayes regim= at The Weekly Standard gets a J=m Rutenberg column, "Pushback From Right on Lies as News":

=strong>The 46-year-old editor in chief, a native of Wauwatosa, Wi=., "got ideological ammunition from National Review for the Friday night p=litical fights he and his friends waged over Pabst Blue Ribbons and hot wi=gs."

Hayes "said he was on the verge of hiring fi=e additional journalists, having gotten the go-ahead from The Weekly Stand=rd's billionaire owner, Philip Anschutz, to grow his team by a third."

10. 1 fun thing: Bracketology

From the USA Today front page

Geographic pairs in the men's March Madness Final Four:=North Carolina and South Carolina; and Oregon and Gonzaga, from Spokane, W=sh.

AP lookahead: "Gonzaga opened as a 6 1/=-point favorite against South Carolina in the opening game next Saturday n=ght at University of Phoenix Stadium in Glendale, Arizona. According to ES=N Stats & Info, it's the first meeting between Final Four first-timers=since 1973. In the second game, North Carolina opened as a 4 1/2-point pic= over Oregon."

is the "prohibitive fa=orite" to win it all a week from tonight.

From toda='s N.Y. Times Sports front, "Take a Seat. And Location Does Matter," by Z=ch Schonbrun: "For many teams, the courtside seating arrangement is govern=d by a deliberate roll call, which the coach will thoughtfully compose, th=n assign, then at times reshuffle, like a wedding planner arranging the co=position of a reception's dinner tables."

A message from Bank of America

Starting at home to create responsible growth

At Bank of America, our company can’t succeed unless our employe=s are successful at work and at home. Whether it’s 16 weeks paid f=mily leave, emergency childcare, or a $15 minimum wage, we’re prou= to help 200,000 employees create their own success. Read more.

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