Subject: EconVue Spotlight March 27, 2017
From: "Lyric Hughes Hale" <[email-masked]>
To: "R. Hunter Biden" <[email-masked]>
Date: Mon, 27 Mar 2017 21:42:15 -0700 (PDT)

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EconVue Spotlight

Dear R. Hunter,

The failure of the AHCA on Friday has affected markets worldwide as they 
ponder the future path of other Trump policies, including tax reform and 
infrastructure. EconVue expert David Johnson

https://econvue.com/experts/david-w-johnson

feels that its withdrawal from legislative consideration was actually a 
"liberating event" and discusses the inherent contradictions of the 
American Health Care Act had it in fact become law. Chief among these is 
that it would have disadvantaged Trump supporters. To learn what Johnson 
thinks is coming next, please view his webcast &nbsp;

https://vimeo.com/210306787

and contact Ying Zhan if you'd like to receive a copy of his new report, 
to be published this Wednesday. Outside Washington, global political 
uncertainty and economic soul-searching continue unabated. I begin my 
roundup of commentary with the case for a Le Pen victory, and end with 
an article by Carl Bildt, Problems from Hell in which he describes how 
things might get worse. There are positive signs however, including 
green shoots of entrepreneurship this spring in Japan, as described by 
Devin Stewart. His optimism for Japan is echoed by Richard Katz

https://econvue.com/experts/richard-katz

in his newest report. EconVue economist Michael Lewis

https://econvue.com/experts/michael-lewis

sees a case for solid growth in the US, and writes that rate hikes will 
be offset by other factors such as a strong housing market. Next month's 
Xi-Trump summit will bring together the leaders of the world's two 
largest economies for the first time. It is widely expected that the 
automotive industry will be a key issue, and that the US will push for 
market opening measures by China. Both leaders share a taste for 
bilateral trade agreements so this should provide an opportunity to 
recast the relationship. Unless a BAT or another new tariff is levied 
against Chinese exports, it is unlikely that the PBoC will push the 
value of the renminbi downward and currency concerns will not 
materialize. The more intractable issue is North Korea. South Korea is 
expected to replace its impeached president with an administration less 
supportive of THAAD in May, and this is what is lending an urgency to 
the talks. Hopefully, the Administration will be better prepared than 
they were with AHCA legislation which surprised Beijing this weekend. An 
unintended consequence of Trump's first legislative failure is that this 
might weaken him in the eyes of leaders such as Xi Jinping.

STORIES IN OUR SPOTLIGHT Yes, Marine Le Pen can win in France:Goldman 
Sachs strategist

http://www.cnbc.com/2017/03/24/marine-le-pen-can-win-france-says-goldman-sachs.html

Michelle Caruso-Cabrera 3/24/2017 CNBC The Fed's Favorite Inflation 
Predictors Aren't Very Predictive

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-feds-favorite-inflation-predictors-arent-very-predictive/?utm_medium=email&utm_source=newsletter&utm_term=170307&utm_campaign=ritholtz

FiveThirtyEight March 3, 2017 U.S. Stores Are Too Big, Boring and 
Expensive

https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2017-03-24/u-s-stores-are-too-big-too-boring-and-too-expensive

Barry Ritholtz 3/24/2017 Bloomberg Monetary Policy in a Low Interest 
Rate World

https://www.brookings.edu/bpea-articles/monetary-policy-in-a-low-interest-rate-world/

Michael T. Kiley, John M. Roberts 3/23/2017 Brookings OECD Warns of 
‘Disconnect' Between Financial Markets And Growth Outlook

https://www.wsj.com/articles/oecd-warns-of-disconnect-between-financial-markets-and-growth-outlook-1488880801?mod=e2twe

Paul Hannon 3/7/2017 WSJ A first look at Trump's trade principles

http://www.aei.org/publication/a-first-look-at-trumps-trade-principles/

Derek Scissors 3/1/2017 AEI Tokyo's Ambition 
Generation:&nbsp;Entrepreneurs and Japan's New Business Culture

https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/japan/2016-02-04/tokyos-ambition-generation?cid=soc-tw-rdr

Devin Stewart 2/4/2016 Foreign Affairs Is it a Risk for America that 
China Holds over $1 Trillion U.S. Debt?

http://chinapower.csis.org/us-debt/

CSIS 2017 Is It Time For China To Embrace a Property Tax?

http://chicagopolicyreview.org/2016/08/30/is-it-time-for-china-to-embrace-a-property-tax/

Luodan Li 8/30/16 Chicago Policy Review Food Security and Chinese 
"Comprehensive National Security"

https://jamestown.org/program/food-security-chinese-comprehensive-national-security/

The Jamestown Foundation March 2, 2017 Financial and Business Cycles in 
Brazil

https://poseidon01.ssrn.com/delivery.php?ID=667085003073000078125118091023113107033083027043001020067003015031117049068073095119091027030083095112003064109088096064090104090084123090068069107025121116096070124070086099116&EXT=pdf

Ivo Krznar, Troy Matheson 1/2017 IMF Problems from Hell

https://www.project-syndicate.org/onpoint/problems-from-hell-2017-03?utm_source=Project+Syndicate+Newsletter&utm_campaign=234535341c-op_newsletter_industry_by_design_2017_3_24&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_73bad5b7d8-234535341c-93754929&barrier=accessreg

Project Syndicate 3/24/2017

ECONVUE RESEARCH AND INSIGHTS The State of the European Union at 60

https://econvue.com/pulse/state-european-union-60-1

Nikolai Tagarov

https://econvue.com/experts/nikolai-tagarov

A detailed and updated analysis of the overall political and economic 
situation in the European Union. US-Russia and US-China Relations in the 
Light of IR Theory

https://econvue.com/pulse/us-russia-and-us-china-relations-light-ir-theory

Nikolai Tagarov

https://econvue.com/experts/nikolai-tagarov

FMI Weekly Data Preview: March 27-31

https://econvue.com/reports/michael-lewis/fmi-weekly-data-preview-march-27-31

Michael Lewis

https://econvue.com/experts/michael-lewis

The week started on a reasonably upbeat note as the Dallas Fed's 
manufacturing index held firm. The company outlook index was little 
changed at 18; for 17Q1, the index averaged 20, a clear improvement over 
the 12 average for 16Q4. ( Subscriber Content) Solid Housing/Income 
Fundamentals to Offset Rising Rates

https://econvue.com/reports/michael-lewis/solid-housingincome-fundamentals-offset-rising-rates

Michael Lewis

https://econvue.com/experts/michael-lewis

Housing has been one of the clear bright spots in this lackluster 
expansion. Over the past four years, for example, real residential 
investment has grown more than +6.5% annualized compared to just +2.2% 
real GDP growth. Over the same period, nominal home prices have climbed 
nearly +30% overall, adding a significant boost to household balance 
sheets. Now, with the FOMC beginning to pick up the pace of tightening, 
it is prudent to examine how the housing sector will fare going forward. 
Pretty well, we believe. ( Subscriber Content) Indian and Chinese 
Engagement in Latin America and the Caribbean: A Comparative Assessment

https://econvue.com/pulse/indian-and-chinese-engagement-latin-america-and-caribbean-comparative-assessment

R. Evan Ellis

https://econvue.com/experts/r-evan-ellis

TOE Report March 2017

https://econvue.com/reports/richard-katz/oriental-economist-report-march-2017

Richard Katz

https://econvue.com/experts/richard-katz

Topics covered in the March 2017 issue of the Oriental Economist Report 
include Corporate "elephants" and start-ups - "Open Innovation"; 
Conditions, Not Culture - Declining US start-ups C, Behind-the-scenes 
maneuvers - Success at the summit; Beyond short-term summit success - An 
inch ahead is darkness; Economy Watch on Japan and Small Talk 
(Subscriber Content) AHA! Healthcare is Both a Right and a Commodity

https://econvue.com/pulse/aha-healthcare-both-right-and-commodity

David W. Johnson

https://econvue.com/experts/david-w-johnson

People deserve Appropriate, Holistic and Affordable healthcare services 
that are Coordinated, Accessible, Reliable and Evidenced-based. This is 
AHA CARE! A better debate question is whether centralized or 
decentralized healthcare systems can better deliver AHA CARE! Data Wars

https://econvue.com/pulse/data-wars

Collin Canright

https://econvue.com/experts/collin-canright

European banks soon will offer "open banking," where customers can 
specify who has access to their accounts for payments, under the 
classically Eurocratically named Second Payment Service Directive 
(PSD2). Last week, both the New York Times and The Economist referred to 
customer data as gold, and both noted that U.S. banks are not going to 
open up their data without a fight. CALENDAR Asia Financial Forum: 
"Fintech Revolution in Asia & US" Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco 
Asia Program Financial technology is advancing at a rapid pace that will 
impact the financial industry at all levels from customers to banks. 
Asia has proactively made remarkable progress in this area, well in 
advance of the U.S. Our guest speakers, as moderated by Nicholas Borst, 
one of our co-authors of the recent report on "Asia's Fintech 
Revolution"

http://www.frbsf.org/banking/publications/asia-focus/2017/february/asias-fintech-revolution/

, will continue to explore what fintech means for Asia and for the 
United States with our expert guest speakers at our upcoming Asia 
Financial Forum event, "Fintech Revolution: Lessons, Challenges, and 
Opportunities from Asia and the United States"

http://www.frbsf.org/banking/asia-program/events/2017/april/fintech-revolution-lessons-challenges-opportunities-asia-united-states/

on April 6 from 12 to 2pm in San Francisco. We are also proud to be 
livestreaming the Asia Financial Forum event for the first time. You can 
access the livestream at https://twitter.com/sffed

https://twitter.com/sffed

or https://www.periscope.tv/sffed

https://www.periscope.tv/sffed

With all best wishes,

Lyric Hughes Hale

Editor-in-Chief

Econvue.com
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