Subject: POLITICO's Morning Score: Democratic pollsters fret about missing rural whites — Walz seat up for grabs — Trump spurs rich Democrats to run for office
From: "Morning Score" <[email-masked]>
To: <[email-masked]>
Date: Tue, 28 Mar 2017 08:06:22 -0600
List-Id: <1376319_6478086.xt.local>

By Elena Schneider and Kevin Robillard | 03/28/2017 10:00 AM EDT

With help from Bianca Padr&oacute; Ocasio and Daniel Strauss

The following newsletter is an abridged version of Campaign Pro's Morning Score. For an earlier morning read on exponentially more races - and for a more comprehensive aggregation of the day's most important campaign news - sign up for Campaign Pro today. (http://www.politicopro.com/proinfo)

WHAT KEEPS POLLSTERS UP AT NIGHT - "Democrats burned by polling blind spot," by POLITICO's Steven Shepard: "As they investigate the forces behind the party's stunning losses in November, Democrats are coming to a troubling conclusion. The party didn't just lose among rural white voters on Election Day, it may have failed to capture them in its pre-election polling as well. Many pollsters and strategists believe that rural white voters, particularly those without college degrees, eluded the party's polling altogether - and their absence from poll results may have been both a cause and a symptom of Donald Trump's upset victory over Hillary Clinton in several states. Determining what exactly
 happened is one of the most pressing problems facing the out-of-power party. In order to win those voters back - or figure out a future path to victory without them - party strategists say they first need to measure the size of that rural and working class cohort." Full story.

OPEN SEAT SCRAMBLE - "Democrats fret over Walz's House seat," by Campaign Pro's Daniel Strauss: "Rep. Tim Walz's decision to jump into the Minnesota gubernatorial race leaves Democrats nervous about their prospects of holding the outgoing congressman's Southern Minnesota district next November. 'I would say that there's no question that it will be harder without Tim Walz in that district,' former Minneapolis Mayor R.T. Rybak said just a few hours after Walz announced his candidacy for governor. To Minnesota Democrats, Walz was key to holding a delicate House seat since his first victory in 2006."

- Democratic bench: Democrats "point to state Sen. Dan Sparks, state Rep. Tina Liebling or former state Rep. Terry Morrow as potential candidates. Morrow previously served as Walz's campaign manager." 

- Republican bench: Republican Jim Hagedorn, who narrowly lost to Walz in 2016, plans to run again. Republicans also named state Sens. Carla Nelson and Jeremy Miller as potential candidates. Full story.

FIRST IN SCORE - NRCC retires 2016 debt: The NRCC paid off $11.1 million in debt in the first three months of the year. It's the fastest the committee has retired its debt in the last six cycles, per a spokesman for the group.

2018 WATCH - "Democrat Jenny Wilson 'taking a hard look' at challenging Hatch in 2018," by UtahPolicy.com: "Salt Lake County Councilwoman Jenny Wilson tells UtahPolicy.com she's giving serious thought to running for U.S. Senate in 2018. Wilson says she will take a 'hard look' at the race over the next month before deciding to launch her candidacy. 'I've become frustrated, as many people have, with the state of things in Washington,' she says. 'It's come to the point that we need change, a new generation of leadership there.' ... In 2018, Hatch would be going for his eighth term in Washington. Hatch says he hasn't decided yet, but all available data points to him launching another bid. At
 the end of his current term, Hatch would be 84 years old." Full story.

AND 2020 WATCH - "Ann Romney sees son Josh Romney running for Utah governor," by Deseret News: "Josh Romney, son of former Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney, has said he is considering a run for Utah governor in 2020. But his mother, Ann Romney, didn't equivocate Monday in a 'Today' show interview when asked if she thought her son would seek the job. 'I definitely see it in the lights for Josh,' she said. Ann Romney's advice was to 'go for it.' 'It's worth making a difference. It's worth getting involved. Let your voice be heard,' she said." Full story.

- John Kasich says he's not running for office again: "Ohio Gov. John Kasich said Sunday that despite keeping up a high profile since his failed 2016 presidential bid, he has no intention of running for office again. ... 'I'm not really interested in running for political office again,' Kasich said. 'I don't see it. I just don't see it,'" CNN reported on Sunday. 

Days until the 2017 election: 224.

Days until the 2018 election: 588.

Thanks for joining us. You can email tips to the Campaign Pro team at [email-masked], [email-masked], [email-masked] and [email-masked].

You can also follow us on Twitter: @politicoscott, @ec_schneider, @politicokevin and @danielstrauss4. 

CELEB SIGHTINGS - Alyssa Milano, Christopher Gorham stump for Democrat Jon Ossoff in GA-06: Alyssa Milano of "Charmed" fame and Christopher Gorham from "Ugly Betty," wearing Ossoff T-shirts, tweeted an offer to pick up voters in Georgia's 6th District and take them to vote early. The NRCC called them "Hollywood elitists," but Gorham responded saying, "We're filming here in Georgia and have a vested interest in gaining this seat."

TRUMP EFFECTS - The rich and (somewhat) famous are readying runs for office, The New York Times' Alexander Burns and Jonathan Martin report: "In Florida, they know John Morgan from his law firm's colorful personal injury ads and 1-800-number billboards. In New Orleans, Sidney Torres IV became a local celebrity after parlaying his real estate fortune and flashy lifestyle into crime-fighting and a reality TV career. And in Nevada, Stephen J. Cloobeck, the gregarious founder of Diamond Resorts, vaulted into popular culture on the TV show 'Undercover Boss.' ... Spurred by Mr. Trump's election - or at least encouraged by it - a contingent of rich, fairly famous and largely Democratic neophytes
 has begun to line up for some of the most important elections of 2017 and 2018, including for governorships in Alabama, Florida, Illinois, Maine, Nevada and New Mexico, and a mayoral race in New Orleans." Read more here. 

AIN'T OVER YET - "Paul Ryan: House Republicans will continue their push for health care reform this year," by The Washington Post's Mike DeBonis: "House Speaker Paul D. Ryan told Republican donors Monday that he intends to continue pushing for an overhaul of the nation's health care system by working 'on two tracks' as he also pursues other elements of President Trump's agenda. ... Ryan did not disclose details of what the next iteration of health care reform might look like, but he suggested that a plan was being developed in time to brief the donors at a retreat scheduled for Thursday and Friday in Florida." Full story.

DIGITAL HEAT - DCCC hits moderates: Over the weekend, the DCCC announced its first round of digital ads attacking Republicans on Ryan's health care plan with a five-figure buy. Here's the full list of targeted members: Rep. Carlos Curbelo (FL-26), Rep. Pat Meehan (PA-07), Rep. Erik Paulsen (MN-03), Rep. Dave Reichert (WA-08), Rep. Pete Roskam (IL-06), Rep. Chris Collins (NY-27), Rep. Ryan Costello (PA-06), Rep. Leonard Lance (NJ-07), Rep. Tim Walberg (MI-07), Rep. Mimi Walters (CA-45), Rep. Mario Diaz-Balart (FL-25), Rep. John Faso (NY-19), Rep. Jason Lewis (MN-02) and Rep. Lloyd Smucker (PA-16).

- And speaking of heat: Among Republicans running to replace Rep. Tom Price (who helped craft the health care plan), almost all of them expressed concerns about the GOP health care plan, per The Atlanta Journal Constitution. And on that special election, Democrat Jon Ossoff and Karen Handel led a Fox 5 Atlanta poll, The Atlanta Journal Constitution reported. 

DOWN BY ONE - Libertarian candidate opts out of Virginia governor's race: "A Libertarian candidate dropped out of the Virginia governor's race. Jason Carrier said on his Facebook page that he had second thoughts about running and did not want to 'waste good people's time and resources.' ... 'While we were still in the early stages of the campaign, I did not want to waste good people's time and resources as I had second thoughts about running," WWBT NBC12 reported. 

EARLY POLLING DATA - "Poll: Preet Bharara's popularity rises after being fired by Trump," The Citizen: "One result in the latest Siena College poll released Monday will only fan the flames of talk that former U.S. Attorney Preet Bharara will run for political office in New York. Bharara's favorable rating jumped to 37 percent in the latest poll - his highest ever, according to Siena. In June 2016, the last time the polling institute asked voters about Bharara, his favorable rating was 23 percent. The increase follows Bharara's high-profile firing. After reportedly being asked by President Donald Trump to remain the U.S. attorney for the Southern District of New York, the Trump
 administration reversed course and asked for Bharara's resignation." Full story.

STAFFING UP - Gillespie hires deputy communications director, field staffers: Republican Ed Gillespie announced more hires for his Virginia gubernatorial campaign, including Abbi Sigler as deputy communications director, Tucker Obenshain as deputy digital director and surrogate coordinator and Connor Smith as policy coordinator. He also hired four regional field directors: Joe Chelak, Peter Finocchio, Cody Hanshaw and Bruce Schlesman.

- Targeted Victory hires Connie Partoyan as president: PRWeek reports the GOP digital consulting firm hired the former Direct Impact CEO to lead the firm's new corporate practice. More here.

CAMPAIGN FINANCE-LAND - "Campaign donation limits lifted in Illinois governor's race," by The Associated Press: "The limits are lifted on spending in next year's Illinois governor's race after Democratic businessman Chris Kennedy put more than $250,000 into his campaign fund. The move signals another big spending campaign among incumbent Republican Gov. Bruce Rauner and Democrats challenging him. Illinois law says standard limits on campaign donations are lifted when a candidate in a statewide race gives themselves more than $250,000. Illinois campaign disclosure records show Kennedy contributed $250,100 to his Kennedy for Illinois fund on Friday." Full story.

- "Here's how much N.J. taxpayers have kicked in to 2017 governor's race," by NJ.com: "Two gubernatorial hopefuls vying to succeed Gov. Chris Christie have received more than $1.7 million in public funds to date, officials announced on Monday. The Election Law Enforcement Commission approved $122,926 for Democratic hopeful Jim Johnson, who already received $752,548. On the Republican side, meanwhile, Lt. Gov. Kim Guadagno was certified for $830,818. Guadagno and Johnson are the only two candidates so far to have been approved by ELEC to receive matching funds." Full story.

- Applegate settles all FEC business: California Democrat Doug Applegate's campaign said Monday night it had resolved a number of FEC reporting issues with corrected reports. Applegate nearly beat Rep. Darrell Issa in 2016, and is making a second run in 2018. "It was a mistake that never should have happened. But I was confident throughout this entire process this was nothing more than mistakes being made," Applegate said. "We have the right team in place to finish what we started and beat Darrell Issa in 2018."

ON THE HILL - "Gorsuch's path to 60 votes closing fast," by POLITICO's Seung Min Kim and Elana Schor: "Supreme Court nominee Neil Gorsuch's path to 60 votes is rapidly closing - setting the stage for a nuclear showdown in the Senate as soon as next week. Senior Democratic sources are now increasingly confident that Gorsuch can't clear a filibuster, saying his ceiling is likely mid- to upper-50s on the key procedural vote. That would mark the first successful filibuster of a Supreme Court nominee since Abe Fortas for chief justice in the 1960s. In the latest ominous sign for the federal judge from Colorado, Sen. Bill Nelson (D-Fla.) said Monday he'll oppose Gorsuch on the cloture vote, which
 is expected late next week." Full story.

WAY DOWN BALLOT - SHOT: "Price tag of North Carolina's LGBT law: $3.76 billion," via The Associated Press. 

- CHASER: "If HB2 isn't repealed, how will it affect N.C.'s 2018 elections?" via The Raleigh News and Observer: "The lack of compromise between Republican and Democratic legislators makes it increasingly possible that HB2 could remain a potent issue in the next election. That will likely happen in 2018 when all 170 legislative seats are up for election, unless the U.S. Supreme Court acts soon to reinstate a court-ordered 2017 special election in a redistricting lawsuit." Full story.

- And if you need a refresher, here's a deep dive on how North Carolina got here, via POLITICO Magazine: Full story.

ADMINISTRATION SPEED READ - "Trump vs. Congress: Now What?" by Robert Draper in New York Times Magazine: "Early in the afternoon of Feb. 9, several Democratic senators met with Trump in the Roosevelt Room of the White House to discuss the Gorsuch nomination and other matters. Among them were Heidi Heitkamp of North Dakota, Joe Donnelly of Indiana, Joe Manchin of West Virginia and Jon Tester of Montana. ... That February afternoon in the Roosevelt Room, Donnelly thanked Trump for negotiating with Carrier, the manufacturing company based in Indiana that had threatened to move jobs to Mexico before Trump arm-twisted it into keeping many of them in Indiana. But Donnelly urged him not to view
 that episode as a 'one-off.' He requested the president's support for his End Outsourcing Act, which would give preferential treatment in awarding federal contracts to businesses that kept jobs in America. The words were scarcely out of Donnelly's mouth before Trump said, 'I'm 100 percent for that, and I'll do everything I can to help get it passed.' He then asked [Vice President Mike] Pence, who was in the room, 'What do you think, Mike?' Trump was apparently unaware that Pence, as the governor of Donnelly's state, had refused to back the senator's initiative, claiming instead that burdensome federal regulations were to blame for outsourcing. According to Donnelly, Pence gamely replied,
 'If it's like what Joe describes, I'll do everything I can to help.'" Full story.

- "The honeymoon's over for Trump and Putin," by POLITICO's Michael Crowley: "After months of overtures from President Donald Trump to Russian President Vladimir Putin, the Trump administration is trading harsh diplomatic words with Moscow, further dimming the prospects for a strategic alliance between the two countries. ... Experts say Putin is highly sensitive to American criticism of his internal political actions, and the Russian leader could react angrily to the condemnation. But it remains unclear whether the statement reflects carefully considered U.S. policy. The top Russia jobs at the State Department and Pentagon remain unfilled. A White House official said the incoming senior
 National Security Council director for Russia, Brookings Institution scholar Fiona Hill, has not yet started her job." Read more here. 

CODA - QUOTE OF THE DAY: "There is a greater likelihood that I will have transgender surgery than I will run for the governor of any state, at any time, or anything, anywhere. It ain't happening," - Former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee on running for office again, per NWF Daily News. 

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