Subject: POLITICO's Morning Score: Democrats aim to make Cruz a 2018 target — Manchin, Heitkamp back Gorsuch — GOP scrambles to stop GA-06 disaster — Walker ‘ready’ for reelection
From: "Morning Score" <[email-masked]>
To: <[email-masked]>
Date: Fri, 31 Mar 2017 08:05:26 -0600
List-Id: <1376319_6486904.xt.local>

By Kevin Robillard and Elena Schneider | 03/31/2017 10:00 AM EDT

With Bianca Padr&oacute; Ocasio and Daniel Strauss

The following newsletter is an abridged version of Campaign Pro's Morning Score. For an earlier morning read on exponentially more races - and for a more comprehensive aggregation of the day's most important campaign news - sign up for Campaign Pro today. (http://www.politicopro.com/proinfo)

EMERGING TARGETS - "Democrats aim to take out Cruz in 2018," by POLITICO's Burgess Everett and Heather Caygle: "Facing a grim midterm map, Democrats are desperately trying to put enough GOP-held seats in play to take advantage of Donald Trump's unpopularity and carve a credible path back to Senate control. The odds are so long that Democrats must pin their hopes on taking out Ted Cruz in the reliably conservative bastion of Texas. Their first ray of hope is the entry of three-term Rep. Beto O'Rourke (D-Texas) - a 44-year-old former hard rock musician and internet entrepreneur who speaks Spanish fluently - into the race [today]. Though Cruz is universally known, Democrats insist he's not
 invincible, pointing to the first-term Republican's poor polling numbers and prolonged focus on running for president." 

- Senate Majority Whip John Cornyn called O'Rourke "a good guy," but added: "I think this is a suicide mission." As for Rep. Joaquin Castro, "Texas Democrats and state strategists believe that Castro will likely pass now that O'Rourke is in." Full story. 

DECISION TIME - West Virginia Sen. Joe Manchin and North Dakota Sen. Heidi Heitkamp became the first two Democrats to back Neil Gorsuch's Supreme Court nomination. Here's a key bit of Manchin's statement: "I hold no illusions that I will agree with every decision Judge Gorsuch may issue in the future, but I have not found any reasons why this jurist should not be a Supreme Court Justice." And here's Heitkamp: "This vote does not diminish how disturbed I am by what Republicans did to Judge [Merrick] Garland. ... But I was taught that two wrongs don't make a right."

- Heitkamp's and Manchin's decisions put pressure on the three other undecided Democrats whose states Trump won by more than 10 percentage points: Indiana's Joe Donnelly, Montana's Jon Tester and Missouri's Claire McCaskill.

- And the Judicial Crisis Network is adding to the pressure with a $1 million ad buy. The buy targets McCaskill, Donnelly, Tester and Sen. Michael Bennet, who is from Gorsuch's home state of Colorado. The 30-second ad features footage of Gorsuch at his confirmation hearing, pledging to make decisions based on the law. Watch the ad here. 

- "McCaskill agonizes over Gorsuch," by POLITICO's Burgess Everett: "McCaskill says she is so in the 'vortex' of the battle to confirm President Donald Trump's Supreme Court nominee that she's essentially stopped talking publicly about her thought process on how she'll vote next week. But behind closed doors back in Missouri, she said she is mortified about where the Senate is headed if Gorsuch is blocked and Majority Leader Mitch McConnell changes the Senate rules to kill the 60-vote threshold on Supreme Court nominees, according to audio obtained by the Kansas City Star. The Missouri senator, who faces a tough reelection campaign in 2018, reasoned that the Gorsuch nomination will not
 change the balance of the court, and is a 'Scalia for Scalia' substitution, referring to the existing vacancy on the court left by the death of conservative Justice Antonin Scalia. But if McConnell changes the rules for Gorsuch, McCaskill worries that one of the more liberal justices will be replaced by a conservative and alter the balance of the court forever." Full story. 

- The Missouri GOP eventually released the full audio of the fundraiser. In it, McCaskill predicts she will face GOP Rep. Ann Wagner in the general election, and says the total cost of the race could top $200 million. Listen to the audio here. 

SPECIAL ELECTION SEASON - "GOP scrambles to head off special election disaster," by Campaign Pro's Elena Schneider: "Republicans are increasingly anxious that a splintered GOP field could lead to a Democratic upset victory in one of the first congressional elections of the Trump era. Once an unthinkable prospect in the conservative suburban Atlanta seat left vacant by Health and Human Services Secretary Tom Price, party officials now concede that Jon Ossoff, a 30-year-old Democrat, could steal a district that's been in GOP hands for decades. Mounting worries have led the GOP's House campaign arm to set up its independent expenditure operation, part of a 'battle plan' to get involved 'in
 short order,' National Republican Congressional Committee Chairman Steve Stivers of Ohio told POLITICO." Full story.

- ICYMI: Ossoff broke $4 million in contributions, and we're still three weeks out from Election Day. 

2018 WATCH - "Scott Walker tells donors: 'I'm ready' for reelection bid," by Campaign Pro's Kevin Robillard: "Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker is close to announcing a bid for reelection, telling more than 50 top donors on a conference call on Thursday he is 'ready' to run for a third term, according to two sources with knowledge of the call. 'I'm ready,' Walker said. 'I'm as excited as I've ever been about Wisconsin's future.' Walker warned donors not to expect a formal announcement until after the state finishes its budget process, which is typically by the end of June, the sources said. Walker campaign adviser Joe Fadness confirmed the content of the call." Full story. 

- "Governors seeking their third consecutive four-year term have won nine elections in a row since 1994 and 20 of 24 dating back to 1970," Smart Politics' Eric Ostermeier writes. Full story. 

- "Titus 'thinking about' run against Heller in 2018," by the Las Vegas Sun's Ray Hagar: Rep. Dina Titus, "speaking Thursday on Nevada Newsmakers, cited Nevada voter registration numbers that favor Democrats as a factor that would be in her favor if she decided to run. She is also connecting Heller to the Trump administration. 'Yeah, I'm thinking about it,' she said. 'A lot of people have asked me to do it. Right now, I think the demographics of Nevada would point to a Democratic victory. And I've got a lot of things I disagree with Dean Heller on.'" Full story. 

- "GOP mega-donor Richard Uihlein backs Kevin Nicholson with $2 million to challenge Tammy Baldwin," by the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel's Bill Glauber: "Even though Nicholson, 39, has courted GOP insiders and appeared at Republican dinners, he has yet to formally enter the race and remains relatively unknown among the wider electorate. That may be about to change with Thursday's announcement that GOP mega-donor Richard Uihlein has contributed $2 million to Solutions for Wisconsin, a newly formed super PAC that endorsed Nicholson. The move came just a day after another potential candidate, Nicole Schneider of Green Bay, signaled that she was mulling whether to enter the race." Full story. 

Days until the 2017 election: 221.

Days until the 2018 election: 585.

Thanks for joining us. You can email tips to the Campaign Pro team at [email-masked], [email-masked], [email-masked] and [email-masked].

You can also follow us on Twitter: @politicoscott, @ec_schneider, and @danielstrauss4. 

HOT DOC - Decision Desk HQ is out with a national precinct-by-precinct map of presidential election results. 

CIVIL WAR WATCH, GOP EDITION - "Trump vs. Freedom Caucus 'cannibalization' after health care failure," by Kyle Cheney and Rachael Bade: "Trump, furious that his onetime allies helped undermine his effort to replace Obamacare and landed an ego-bruising blow on the president's ability to close deals, began the fracas. He suggested on Twitter that he might support primary challengers for members of the House Freedom Caucus, the bloc of three dozen ultraconservatives who - along with wary moderates - banded together to help sink the health care push. Trump promised to 'fight' Freedom Caucus members in 2018 if they don't 'get on the team, & fast.' His slap led [Rep. Justin] Amash to deliver a
 stinging retort: 'It didn't take long for the swamp to drain @realDonaldTrump,' he tweeted. 'No shame, Mr. President. Almost everyone succumbs to the D.C. Establishment.'" Full story. 

- "South Carolina U.S. Rep. Mark Sanford: Trump threatened to back primary challenger against me," by The Post and Courier's Emma Dumain: "The South Carolina Republican told The Post and Courier that Trump chose to convey this message through an intermediary: White House budget chief Mick Mulvaney, a former member of the S.C. congressional delegation, co-founder of the House Freedom Caucus and a friend. 'The president asked me to look you square in the eyes and to say that he hoped that you voted "no" on this bill so he could run (a primary challenger) against you in 2018,''' Sanford said Mulvaney told him." Full story.

WAYS TO MEANS - Rep. Kristi Noem has scheduled four fundraisers featuring fellow Republican members of the House Ways and Means Committee as special guests. Noem, who's retiring from Congress as she runs for governor, has lined up four fundraising luncheons featuring Reps. George Holding, Mike Kelly, Jason Smith and Pat Tiberi, according to an invitation obtained by Score. All the luncheons are in Washington D.C. The luncheons featuring Kelly and Holding were held on Feb. 16 and March 21, respectively. The remaining two with Smith and Tiberi will be held on April 27 and May 23. 

STICKING TOGETHER - "Democrats in Trump territory in no mood to deal," by POLITICO's Kyle Cheney and Heather Caygle: "The 12 Democrats who represent House districts won by Donald Trump were supposed to be easy marks for the deal-making new president. Instead, they're giving him the stiff-arm. 'I do come from a district that did flip to Trump this time but I don't think they should be reading that as a slam dunk,' said Rep. Ron Kind (D-Wis.). 'I'm not going to support crazy up here.'" Full story.

HB2 REPEAL IN N.C. - "The North Carolina Legislature advanced a measure on Thursday that would repeal the state's controversial 'bathroom law' that leaders said damaged the state's reputation and would have cost an estimated $3 billion in lost business over a dozen years. But activists on both sides of the issue panned the compromise deal between Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper and the GOP-controlled Legislature. The bill under consideration on Thursday - which repeals HB2 but restricts local anti-discrimination ordinances until 2020 - comes at a key time for the state. The NCAA is expected to announce site locations for championships and tournaments in the coming weeks, and it had threatened to
 keep games out of the state until House Bill 2 was repealed." Full story. 

EARLY POLLING - "Who will be California's next governor? New poll shows Newsom leads with 1 in 3 voters undecided," by the Los Angeles Times' Seema Mehta: "In the race to replace termed-out Gov. Jerry Brown, the largest number of voters in a new statewide poll does not favor a candidate in the race. About 1 in 3 voters said they were undecided, according to the survey by the UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies. Among candidates who have entered the race, Lt. Gov. Gavin Newsom holds a strong lead with 28 percent of the vote, followed by Republican businessman John Cox with 18 percent, according to the poll, which was released Wednesday. Former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa
 clocks in at 11 percent state Treasurer John Chiang at 8 percent and former state schools chief Delaine Eastin at 3 percent." Full story.

TRANSITIONS - End Citizens United adds staff: End Citizens United announced Thursday that it's adding two staffers: Dorothy Scheeline, who served as the senior research associate at the DSCC in 2016, will join as the group's new research director. Anne Feldman, who most recently served as Democrat Jason Kander's press secretary, will serve in the same role at End Citizens United. 

ADMINISTRATION SPEED READ - "Mike Flynn Offers to Testify in Exchange for Immunity," by The Wall Street Journal's Shane Harris, Carol E. Lee and Julian Barnes: "Mike Flynn, President Donald Trump's former national security adviser, has told the Federal Bureau of Investigation and congressional officials investigating the Trump campaign's potential ties to Russia that he is willing to be interviewed in exchange for a grant of immunity from prosecution, according to officials with knowledge of the matter. ... He has made the offer to the FBI and the House and Senate intelligence committees through his lawyer but has so far found no takers, the officials said." Full story. 

- "White House shuffles West Wing staff after health bill collapse," by POLITICO's Shane Goldmacher, Matthew Nussbaum, Tara Palmieri and Alex Isenstadt: "Less than a week after suffering a stinging defeat on health care legislation, President Donald Trump shook up his West Wing staff on Thursday, dispatching one of his top aides to shore up an outside political group that the White House believes failed to support Trump's agenda at a critical juncture. The departure of deputy chief of staff Katie Walsh, a key ally of Trump's chief of staff Reince Priebus, caps a rough stretch for Trump. ... The more immediate question looming over the faction-ridden White House was whether Walsh was the
 beginning or end of changes in the West Wing. Priebus, chief strategist Steve Bannon and senior aide Jared Kushner briefed a small group of reporters about the move on Thursday afternoon and insisted it was less of a shake-up and more of a rebooting of an outside effort that they believe had stumbled." Full story. 

CODA - QUOTE OF THE DAY: "Proud Hollywood lib but I'm hosting a big fundraiser 4compassionate Republican Ohio Att Gen Mike DeWine 4 Governor. He's tough but he cares." - Actor Tom Arnold, announcing on Twitter he's hosting a fundraiser for likely Ohio gubernatorial candidate Mike DeWine. 

To view online:
http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=6cd0e7313a48eeaed14db7251125be45301b86bf4dfd3f0fcf744e81fd2c1efd912cd6dc456ccac84c6ee65c7fd8b062
 To change your alert settings, please go to http://go.politicoemail.com/?qs=6cd0e7313a48eeae5cb3b1da95f15ac4a0a987260b5f40df0984b91448ceb44c764c3cec2b72fdb27220c337d4700294 or http://click.politicoemail.com/profile_center.aspx?qs=c1c81b2ef644fde1dd3c1f6178ef6a8ea3ee660992025bd47fbe0bb94088740a2d06418bf0a5292c5cb20bfda3cc811726a38970de9e7c89
This email was sent to [email-masked] by: POLITICO, LLC 1000 Wilson Blvd. Arlington, VA, 22209, USA

To unsubscribe,http://www.politico.com/_unsubscribe?e=0000015b-24ab-d412-a15b-aeffe1eb0000&u=0000014e-f0fe-dd93-ad7f-f8fffbc40000&s=61387fae11d02f3b68af81e1206f2fff75d468b83969ba58e6f9586580d9fcb5d6e68f13d2965ae30a8a3c104fcdf63399769ca8f5ed8228a64c7f013278042c