Subject: ?Axios Sneak Peek: Trump's landmines — Breaking: POTUS threat on North Korea — Schumer: 60 votes "highly unlikely"
From: "Jonathan Swan" <[email-masked]>
To: <[email-masked]>
Date: Sun, 2 Apr 2017 16:45:03 -0400 (EDT)

Presented by Koch Industries:

Trump's landmines — Breaking: POTUS threat on North Korea �=80� Schumer: 60 votes "highly unlikely"

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Axios Sneak Peek

By Jonathan Swan = ·Apr 02, 2017<=span>

Thank you so much for being a loyal Axios AM reader.
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1 big thing: Trump's landmines

After the healthcare failure wrecked Trump's first 100 days, Jared Kushner, Steve Bannon and Reince Priebus — all neophyt=s at pushing legislation through Congress — are surveying the next=phase more guardedly.

If they fail again on the scale of healthcare= at least one, and maybe even two, of this troika would be terminated. (Hi=t: It's not Jared.) A source who the President trusts tel=s me Trump is "over" Reince and it wouldn't take much more than a hiccup f=r Trump to fire him.

Five landmines in their near f=ture:

Healthcare: Trump insists Trumpcare isn't dead. He played golf today with Budget Director Mick Mulvaney and the man who=most enthusiastically trashed Trumpcare the first time around — Se=. Rand Paul. But the moderate Tuesday Group and the conservative House Fre=dom Caucus remain divided on policy, and distrust each other. As for Democ=ats: Trump will soon learn, if he hasn't already, that Nancy Pelosi won't =elp him.

Tax reform: Paul Ryan loves the border a=justment tax, and so does Steve Bannon, but most House conservatives and t=e vast majority of Republican senators don't. The Speaker says he needs th= $1 trillion in revenue the BAT would raise to pay for transformational ta= cuts; so if he can't get it, then how does he proceed? There's still no a=reement on what the cuts look like or even whether they need to be paid fo=.

The CR: The government runs out of money on Apr=l 29, with the expiration of the continuing resolution. House conservative= don't want to fund Planned Parenthood and the Obamacare insurance company=subsidies. Democrats, meanwhile, will fight to block funding for Trump's b=rder wall. And Trump wants $18 billion in cuts below current government fu=ding levels, which neither Ryan nor the Senate can deliver on. Those dispu=es could easily shut down the government.

Debt ceiling: <=strong>Conservatives spent their six years in the majority demanding Obama=deliver dollar-for-dollar cuts for any debt ceiling increase. They got seq=estration in the first round, and not much else, but that doesn't mean the='ll lay down for a Republican president on a clean debt ceiling increase. =xpect another showdown pitting the House Freedom Caucus against Trump and =yan.

Spending all over again in October: However<=trong> Republicans untangle government funding at the end of Apri=, they've got to do this all over again in the fall. If Congress can manag= a continuing resolution in April that doesn't cut Planned Parenthood and =ealth insurer subsidies, conservatives will spend the next five months pla=ning for the next showdown. Again, there are no good answers, and no Repub=ican unity in sight.

2. Trump's big week on the world stage

President Trump has his most important foreign policy week, meeting the Egyptian President, the Jordanian King, and later in the w=ek the big one — China's President Xi Jinping. These follow Secret=ry of State Rex Tillerson's well-received vi=it to NATO HQ in Brussels.

On China: CNN's =State of the Union" host Jake Tapper colorfully introduced Trump's meeting=with Xi at Mar-a-Lago. "Awkward," Tapper said, "to suggest a round of golf=with a man whose country you just accused of raping America."

<=trong>Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross, the chief architect of the =dministration's trade policies, signaled to Tapper — without speci=ically naming China — that the administration won't be kind to Chi=a's practice of dumping products (read: steel) into the U.S. at "unfairly =ow prices."

The Financial Times this afternoo= popp=d a meaty interview with Trump. Four takeaways:

Trump said the U.S. will act unilaterally if China d=es not pressure Pyongyang: "Well if China is not going to solve North Kore=, we will. That is all I am telling you."

Asked whether he could cut a deal with Xi at Mar-a-Lago, Trump said: "I would not =e at all surprised if we did something that would be very dramatic and goo= for both countries and I hope so."

Asked how you=bring China's trade surplus down quickly: "By telling China that we cannot=continue to trade if we are going to have an unfair deal like we have righ= now. This is an unfair deal."

Asked if he is goi=g to equalize tariffs: "I don't want to talk about tariffs yet, perhaps th= next time we meet. So I don't want to talk about tariffs yet. But you use= the word equalise. That is a very good word because they are not equalize=."

=/a>

3. Behind closed doors

White House legislative-affairs officials Marc Short an= Joyce Meyer met Wednesday with Paul Ryan's chief of staff Jonathan Burks =nd the Speaker's policy director, Austin Smythe. The purpose of the meetin= was for Team Ryan to brief the administration on leadership's efforts to =raft a bill to keep the government funded at the end of April.

It was a cordial conversation, but there remain plenty of obsta=les to passing a bill. Trump's legislative-affairs team still thinks it ca= pass the spending bill through the House with the support of Republicans.=House leadership doesn't think it's realistic that the House Freedom Caucu= would vote for a spending bill; so it's more advanced towards grabbing De=ocratic votes.

Context: Appropriators are writing a=bill to fund the rest of fiscal year 2017. They need Democrats to get to 6= votes so lots of the controversial (read: conservative) stuff is being th=own overboard. The White House felt like the plans — at least wher= they stood last week — could've been drafted by Obama.

Sticking point: The White House wants money for the wall in th= bill, and Senate Democrats have made it very clear they will filibuster t=at. Smart congressional staff are trying to figure out an alternative solu=ion in that space that Democrats could live with.

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4. D-Day for SCOTUS

Judge Neil Gorsuch will be confirmed t= the Supreme Court by the end of the week, one way or another, Mitch McCon=ell told "Fox News Sunday" host Chris Wallace.

Senate Democr=tic leader Chuck Schumer told Chuck Todd of "Meet the Press" it's="highly, highly unlikely that he'll get 60," votes, meaning McConnell will=become the first Senate leader to use the nuclear option t= break a deadlock for the highest court.

Key Republican Sen=te leadership staff and senior White House staff are assuming the= won't get to 60, according to a source involved in Gorsuch's confirmation=effort.

But National Right to Life and the NRA=are scoring the cloture vote, the vote on the nuclear option if it comes t= that, and the final vote, the source added. This should get the red-state=Dems thinking, and it may explain why Sen. Joe Donnelly announced today th=t he will vote for Gorsuch's confirmation.

"I am feeling v=ry good this weekend and will be pulling out a great burgundy for=Sunday lunch," the source told me Saturday. "And since the moderate Democr=ts have made themselves sitting ducks in all this, I'll be preparing duck =onfit salad."

1 joyful thing: brain pickings

Late British writer Oliver Sacks / Brainpickings.org

One of my favorite websites is "" — lovingly curated wisdom from dead writers an= artists (and some alive ones, too.) The site also does self-help.

<=trong>Here are "10 learnings from 10 years of Brain Pickings":

"Allow yourself the uncomfortable luxury of changing you= mind."

"Do nothing for prestige or status or money or approval al=ne."

"Be generous =ith your time and your resources and with giving credit and, especially, w=th your words."

"B=ild pockets of stillness into your life ... Without this essential stage of unconscious processing, the entire flow of the=creative process is broken."

"When people try to tell you who =em>you are, don't believe them ... You are the only custodian of your=own integrity."

"Presence is far more intricate and rewarding an a=t than productivity."
=li>"Expect anything worthwhile to take a long time ...The myth of the over=ight success is just that — a myth — as well as a reminder=that our present definition of success needs serious retuning."

"Seek ou= what magnifies your spirit."

"Don't be afraid to be an idealist."

"Don't just resist cynicism — fight i= actively."

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