Subject: POLITICO's Morning Score: NRCC starting seven-figure TV buy in GA-06 — GOP internal poll claims Democratic momentum slowing in special election — Donnelly a yes, Tester a no as Democrats close in on 41 votes to filibuster Gorsuch
From: "Morning Score" <[email-masked]>
To: <[email-masked]>
Date: Mon, 03 Apr 2017 08:09:58 -0600
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By Elena Schneider | 04/03/2017 10:00 AM EDT

With Scott Bland and Kevin Robillard 

The following newsletter is an abridged version of Campaign Pro's Morning Score. For an earlier morning read on exponentially more races - and for a more comprehensive aggregation of the day's most important campaign news - sign up for Campaign Pro today. (http://www.politicopro.com/proinfo)

COMING TODAY - NRCC launching seven-figure TV ad buy before GA-06 special primary: The NRCC's independent expenditure unit will pump at least $1.1 million into advertising in Georgia in the next two weeks, part of broader GOP efforts to drum up Republican voter enthusiasm before the April 18 all-party primary. The enthusiasm flooding Democrat Jon Ossoff's campaign - especially the $4 million-plus Ossoff has already raised - has transformed the special election in the normally Republican-leaning GA-06, and GOP groups are working quickly to try and turn out their base to match Ossoff's fired-up support. Turnout expectations are volatile, but the final numbers will be key: Ossoff would win the
 seat without a runoff if engaged Democratic voters boost him to a majority in the special primary.

- Watch for the NRCC ad coming later Monday. Like the latest ads from Congressional Leadership Fund and a separate NRCC-funded ad that went online Friday, the new independent-expenditure spot will link Ossoff to partisan Democratic causes and politicians to get Republican voters invested in the special election.

NEW THIS MORNING - "GOP internal poll claims Democratic momentum slowing in special election," by Campaign Pro's Kevin Robillard: "Polling conducted for a Republican super PAC claims Democrat Jon Ossoff's special election momentum has frozen in Georgia's 6th District, the GOP group told donors in a memo last week, even as Republican groups continue to pour more resources into stopping Ossoff this month. ... The memo, from [Congressional Leadership Fund] executive director Corry Bliss and GOP pollster Greg Strimple of GS Strategy Group, says that polling conducted March 29-30 showed 38 percent of likely special election voters viewing Ossoff favorably and 47 percent viewing him unfavorably.
 The unfavorable numbers jumped sharply from previous polling conducted March 19-20, which had 43 percent of likely voters viewing Ossoff favorably compared to 26 percent who viewed him unfavorably. ... The later poll also showed Ossoff getting 36 percent of the primary vote, virtually unchanged from 37 percent in the earlier one."

- However: "Other surveys of the race have shown Ossoff getting a higher share of support, and strategists from both parties have cautioned that special election polling will be fluid, given the uncertainty about how Ossoff's well-funded campaign - and the growing sums Republicans are spending in the district - will affect voter turnout later this month." Full story.  

ON THE HILL - "Democrats close in on 41 votes to block Gorsuch," by POLITICO's Seung Min Kim: "Neil Gorsuch almost certainly will end this week confirmed as a Supreme Court justice. And the Senate's rules - indeed, the institutional character of the chamber - seem just as sure to end up severely eroded. Senate Democrats are quickly closing in on the 41 votes needed to block the nomination of President Donald Trump's first pick for the Supreme Court. But Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) and his GOP ranks aren't backing down in the face of the filibuster threat, continuing to insist that Gorsuch will be installed as the next high court justice, whether Democrats like it or not."
 Full story. 

- "Donnelly becomes third Democrat to back Gorsuch," by POLITICO's Elana Schor: "Neil Gorsuch on Sunday picked up a third red-state Democratic backer, Indiana Sen. Joe Donnelly, but remains short of the 60 votes needed to overcome a filibuster. ... Republicans are vowing to confirm Gorsuch next week, even if it requires changing Senate rules to kill the filibuster for Supreme Court nominees. Donnelly said that he shares many fellow Democrats' frustration over the GOP's refusal last year to grant even a hearing to former President Barack Obama's Supreme Court nominee, Merrick Garland. Still, the Indianan added that he would not obstruct Gorsuch in response." Donnelly joins West Virginia's
 Joe Manchin and North Dakota's Heidi Heitkamp in the pro-Gorsuch column. Full story.

- Tester is a 'no' on Gorsuch: Montana Sen. Jon Tester tweeted a statement Sunday night, explaining his decision to not support Gorsuch. "With Judge Gorsuch on the bench, I am deeply concerned that dark money will continue to drown out the voices and votes of citizens, the Court will stand between women and their doctors, and the government will reach into the private lives of law-abiding Americans. These are not Montana values, which is why I cannot support his nomination. 

Days until the 2017 election: 218.

Days until the 2018 election: 582.

Thanks for joining us. And happy Opening Day! (Go Cubs.) You can email tips to the Campaign Pro team at [email-masked], [email-masked], [email-masked] and [email-masked].

You can also follow us on Twitter: @politicoscott, @ec_schneider, @politicokevin and @danielstrauss4. 

WHAT TO WATCH THIS WEEK - Key first-quarter fundraising reports coming for endangered Senate Democrats: Missouri Sen. Claire McCaskill told donors last week her race could cost more than $200 million. Montana Sen. Jon Tester, in comparatively low-cost Montana, predicted at a recent party dinner his race would cost more than $150 million. Those numbers are likely inflated for donors, and party committees and outside groups will contribute a hefty chunk of that tab - but the candidates will obviously be chipping in, and neither incumbent is very far on their way to contributing their portion. Tester had just $1.5 million on hand, as of the end of 2016. McCaskill had just $781,000. (A likely
 opponent, GOP Rep. Ann Wagner, had $2.1 million.)

- McCaskill and Tester's relatively small war chests are a problem across the board for Senate Democrats, who don't start the cycle with any candidates with imposing cash-on-hand numbers, the way Ohio Sen. Rob Portman and Pennsylvania Sen. Pat Toomey did last cycle for Republicans. Some of their best funded candidates are in relatively safe states: Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren had $4.8 million at the end of 2016, Michigan Sen. Debbie Stabenow had $3.2 million and Tim Kaine had $3.1 million. Ohio Sen. Sherrod Brown had a robust $3.1 million, but one of his potential opponents, GOP Rep. Pat Tiberi, already had more cash-on-hand than any Senator up for reelection with $5.1 million.
 Other vulnerable incumbents with cash-on-hand totals below $2 million: Pennsylvania's Bob Casey, West Virginia's Joe Manchin, Wisconsin's Tammy Baldwin, ultra-expensive Florida's Bill Nelson and North Dakota's Heidi Heitkamp.

- Democratic online fundraising has been on fire since Trump's election. (Examples from February, one-third of the first quarter: McCaskill raised over $421,000 online via ActBlue that month, while Tester raised over $170,000 online that month.) Will similar online fuel translate into eye-popping first quarter totals that could scare off GOP challengers in any states? The quarter ended on Friday night, and numbers should begin leaking out this week. 

CASH RACE - "In L.A.'s congressional election, 5 candidates have gotten 75% of the cash," by The Los Angeles Times' Christine Mai-Duc, Maloy Moore, Ryan Menezes and Javier Panzar: " ... So far, donors have favored five candidates: Assemblyman Jimmy Gomez, Sara Hernandez, Robert Lee Ahn, Alejandra Campoverdi and Yolie Flores. Not counting money candidates gave to themselves, Gomez was the top overall fundraiser, bringing in $540,360 since announcing his run in December. Hernandez, a former teacher who also worked as an L.A. City Hall aide, has raised $425,330 overall. But late entry Ahn, a former planning commissioner, out-raised both Hernandez and Gomez in the most recent campaign finance
 period, bringing in $330,300 in donations from Jan. 1 to March 15, putting him third in overall fundraising." Full story.

OFF MESSAGE - "Seattle mayor to Democrats: 'Anger has to be attached to a strategy,'" by POLITICO's Edward-Isaac Dovere: "Ed Murray is warning Democrats they'll never stop President Donald Trump if they don't move quickly to operationalize the resistance and dispense with progressive purity tests - such as talking down to voters who, like him, take their faith seriously." Full story.

THE GLOBAL POLITICO PODCAST: 'THIS THEORY WE DIDN'T DO ANYTHING': In an exclusive new interview for The Global POLITICO, Obama's top homeland security adviser Lisa Monaco talks about the Russia hacking of 2016 and whether the White House should have talked more publicly about it before the election. Plus: her thoughts on how Trump is undoing their counterterrorism policies "with the stroke of a pen." Listen and subscribe on iTunes.

2018 WATCH - In Georgia, Brian Kemp enters race for governor: "Secretary of State Brian Kemp entered the 2018 race for Georgia governor on Friday, declaring he is the conservative Republican who won't "make empty promises or play political games in the State Capitol. Kemp becomes the first high-profile Republican to formally join a wide-open race to succeed Gov. Nathan Deal, and he echoed some of the term-limited governor's themes in a statement announcing his candidacy," The Atlanta Journal Constitution reported. 

NEXT GEN - "New wave of Kennedys cresting across the country," by The Boston Globe's Annie Linsky: "This is the red meat that Chris Kennedy, the eighth of Robert and Ethel Kennedy's 11 children, hopes the Democratic base wants as he launches his 2018 bid for governor in his adopted Illinois. His cousin Ted Kennedy Jr., son of the late Massachusetts senator, is mulling his own 2018 gubernatorial run in Connecticut, where he's a member of the state Senate. Then there's Joe Kennedy III, the third-term Massachusetts congressman, grabbing the national spotlight to defeat Trump's health care plan - prompting big questions about his next move. He's part of a new wave of Kennedys returning to the
 family business of national political leadership and using Trump as their foil. They're trying to stage a family comeback for one of the most famous names in politics at a time when voters just rejected political elites, and as dynasties on the political left and right crumbled." Full story.

ADMINISTRATION SPEED READ - "Growing array of pro-Trump groups could train cross-hairs on GOP lawmakers," by The Washington Post's Matea Gold and Robert Barnes: "President Trump's attacks on conservative members of his own party come as his allies beef up an array of groups to promote his agenda, amassing firepower that could end up trained on fellow Republicans. At least four separate organizations are now seeking to drive public support for Trump and his priorities - a marked shift from the first two months of his administration, when the White House had limited outside air cover. The immediate goal: to lean on Democratic senators in the run-up to a vote expected this week on Supreme
 Court nominee Neil Gorsuch. But down the road, some of the groups could end up turning their focus on lawmakers who cross Trump, including members of his own party, according to people familiar with internal discussions." Full story. 

- "Trump Aides' Disclosures Reveal Explosion in Lucrative Political Work," by The New York Times' Steve Eder, Eric Lipton and Andrew W. Lehren: " ... Those disclosures, contained in 92 personal financial statements of Trump administration staff members released starting Friday night, offer a hint of how an explosion in spending has expanded the lucrative array of private political work in Washington, enriching even the anti-establishment activists and operatives who sided with Mr. Trump. ... The figures reveal the extent to which private political work has bolstered the financial fortunes of Trump aides, who have made millions of dollars from Republican and other conservative causes in
 recent years, according to an analysis of the disclosure forms by The New York Times after they were transformed into a computerized database by the Center for Public Integrity." Full story.

- "Trump's budget would hit rural towns especially hard - but they're willing to trust him," The Washington Post's Jenna Johnson: "In this town of 16,000 - located near the Texas border in Oklahoma's Bryan County, where Trump won 76 percent of the vote - excitement about Trump's presidency has been dulled by confusion over an agenda that seems aimed at hurting their community more than helping it. The president's proposed budget would disproportionately harm the rural areas and small towns that were key to his unexpected win. Many red states like Oklahoma - where every single county went for Trump - are more reliant on the federal funds that Trump wants to cut than states that voted for
 Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton." Full story.

CODA - QUOTE OF THE DAY: "Well, the cat's out of the bag it seems. Let's do this! #Takei2018" - Star Trek star George Takei tweeted an April Fool's joke, suggesting that he might challenge California Republican Rep. Devin Nunes, via NBC News. 

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