Subject: Axios AM: Mike's Top 10 — 1 map: Why Washington is frozen — War on drugs returns — Bannon canon — Harvard eclipsed
From: "Mike Allen" <[email-masked]>
To: <[email-masked]>
Date: Sun, 9 Apr 2017 10:36:10 -0400 (EDT)

Presented by Bank of America:

1 map: Why Washington is frozen — War on drugs returns �=94 Bannon canon — Harvard eclipsed

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Presented By Bank of America

Axios AM

By Mike Allen = ·Apr 09, 2017

1 big thing: Why Washington is broken

Copyright @ 2017 Cook Political Report

Charlie Cook and his team at T=e Cook Political Report are out with eye-popping new data that help sh=w why Congress is frozen — and why happy talk about working togeth=r to do big things, whether by optimistic centrists or by people in power =ho need to put points on the board, is belied by data.

Key trends — all 20 years in the ma=ing, but hardened and in some cases accelerated by the "hyper-polarized" e=ection of 2016 — from the 20th anniversary "Cook Political =eport Partisan Voter Index," by David Wasserman and Ally Flinn:

The decline of crossover districts: Only 35 of th= nation's 435 House districts went for presidential and House candidates o= opposite parties, down from 108 in 1996. 23 Republican House members are =rom districts Hillary carried, and 12 Dems are from districts Trump carrie=.

Persistent volatility: 21 House districts that =oted for Obama in '12 switched and went for Trump. 15 went Romney in '12 b=t Hillary last year.

The decline of swing districts: In 1997, voters in 164 of the nation's 435 House districts were relativ=ly split by party. Now, only 72 districts are in the same range — =less than one-sixth of the House.

Amazing stat: 7=% of Democratic-leaning seats got even more Democratic, and 65% of GOP-lea=ing seats got even more Republican.

What it means: We are increa=ingly moving next to people who share our political views — and th=n following and sharing like-minded news on social media when our doors ar= closed. This can't be fixed with better redistricting laws.

See = chart from Quorum of Dem House members in the top R-trending=districts, and GOP House members in the top D-trending districts.

2. War on drugs is back

Criminal-justice reform has become a popular bipartisan=issue, but a WashPost f=ont-pager by Justice Department reporter Sari Horowitz says Attorney G=neral Jeff Sessions plans to move the opposite direction, "prepari=g a plan to prosecute more drug and gun cases and pursue mandator= minimum sentences."

Sessions and a lieutenant,
<=trong>The context: "Crime is near historic lows in the United Sta=es, but Sessions says that the spike in homicides in several cities, inclu=ing Chicago, is a harbinger of a 'dangerous new trend' in America that req=ires a tough response."

3. Future threats

In a scoop, AP Justice Department reporter Eric Tucker =inds that the "

The =ackdrop: "The review follows attacks by people who were once on t=e FBI's radar but who have been accused in the past 12 months of massacrin= innocents in an Orlando, Florida, nightclub, injuring people on the stree=s of New York City, and gunning down travelers in a Florida airport. In ea=h case, the suspects had been determined not to warrant continued law enfo=cement scrutiny months and sometimes years."

The mechanics= "The internal audit ... began this year and is being conducted i= FBI field offices across the country."

What =t means: "It's an acknowledgment of the challenge the FBI has fac=d ... in predicting which of the tens of thousands of tips the bureau rece=ves annually might materialize one day into a viable threat."

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4. The Bannon canon

The Fourth Turning: An American Pr=phecy — What the Cycles of History Tell Us About America's Next R=ndezvous with Destiny," by amateur historians William Strauss and Neil How= (first published 20 years ago, in 1997):

Bannon has great admiration for a provocative but disputed theory o= history that argues that the United States is nearing a crisis that could=be just as disruptive and catastrophic as the most seminal global turning =oints of the last 250 years. This prophecy ... makes the case that world e=ents unfold in predictable cycles of roughly 80 years each.

In an interview with The Times, Mr. Bannon sa=d, "Everything President Trump is doing — all of it — is t= get ahead of or stop any potential crisis."

Key passag=: "Sometime before the year 2025, America will pass through a gre=t gate in history, one commensurate with the American Revolution, Civil Wa=, and twin emergencies of the Great Depression and World War II. The risk =f catastrophe will be high. The nation could erupt into insurrection or ci=il violence, crack up geographically, or succumb to authoritarian rule."
The book's key tenets, per Peters:

seasonal nature of history that the authors identi=y foresees an inevitable period of decay and destruction that will tear do=n existing social and political institutions."

"Western so=iety — particularly American culture — has denied=the significance of cyclical patterns in history in favor of the more pala=able and self-serving belief that humans are on an inexorable march toward=improvement."

"The authors envision a return to a=more traditional, conservative social order as one outcome of a crisis."

5. Trump doctrine: Flexibility

Syrian refugee children play yesterday at an informal refugee camp, at A=-Marj town in Bekaa valley, east Lebanon. They're among millions of Syrian=refugees scattered across camps and illegal settlements across the region = AP's Hassan Ammar

N.Y. Times' Peter Baker: "To the extent t=at a Trump Doctrine is emerging, it seems to be this: don't get roped in b= doctrine."

AP's Julie Pace and Vivian Salama in Palm Beach: =Trump would say he's simply flexible, an emerging foreign policy doctrine =hat leaves room for evolution and uncertainty."

Breaking ..<=strong>. On NBC's "Meet the Press," U.S. Ambassador to the U.N. Nikki Hale= tells Chuck Todd re Trump's decision to strike Syria: "[T]hat was seen su=cessfully around the world. I think it was enough to put Assad on notice. = think that anybody that would attempt to use chemical weapons or do anyth=ng to hurt innocent people, at this point, will absolutely think t=ice. And they should."

6. Get smart fast: Why Syria is so complex

This map by Axios' Lazaro Gamio shows which gr=ups control which areas in Syria and Iraq, according to analysts at IHS Jane's Conflict Monitor. The Is=amic State has lost territory to advancing Iraqi government forces and Kur=ish groups, while Syria remains split by its six-year-long civil war.

7, Obama alumni bite back

White House photos of Obama's war cabinet in the Situation Room for the =in Laden raid in 2011, and Trump's at Mar-a-Lago on Thursday.

"Obam= aides push back against criticism of inaction on Syria," by =P's Jesse Holland:

Obama =ides took to Twitter and the airwaves this week to point out what they cal=ed the hypocrisy from Republicans and from Trump himself. 'Times change. "=n 13, Speaker asks Obama how: 'justification comports with exclusive autho=ity of Cong authorization,'" tweeted Ben Rhodes, a deputy national securit= adviser under Obama. Tommy Vietor, former spokesman for the Obama Nationa= Security Council, sent out Trump's tweet demanding Obama get congressiona= approval.

8. Trending in business

A newly vital job category, vulner=ble to automation, mushrooms across America ...

"Online Retailers' Ne= Warehouses Heat Up Local Job Markets: Fulfillment centers fo= online retailers are offering flexible work schedules, gift cards, bonuse= and raises to attract workers," writes the Wall Street Journal's Jennifer=Smith:

[W]ith the unemployment rat= close to a 10-year low, competition for warehouse workers is fueling the =iggest wage gains inside warehouses in at least a decade. Starting pay for=warehouse workers rose 6% over the past year to $12.15 an hour in February=...

The warehouse and storage=sector expanded dramatically as more people shop online ... Warehouse work=rs typically earn a few dollars an hour above minimum wage, though minimum=wage laws in places like California and Massachusetts could narrow the gap=

9. Stanford now more selective than Harvard

"Harvard and Stanford reject nearly 95% of the students=who apply," Business Insider's Abby Jackson and Mike Nudelman point out. =/p>

"For the class of 2001 (meaning students were =ccepted in 1997) the admission rate at Stanford was 15.5% and the rate at =arvard was 12.3%."

20 years later, that has flip=ed: Stanford 4.7%, Harvard 5.2%.

<=a>

10. 1 fun thing

Alex Baldwin plays both roles<=a> as Donald Trump defends Bill O'Reilly on "Saturday Night Live.=

O'Reilly: "Apparentl= several women have come forward and accused me of offering them exciting =pportunities here at Fox news."

"Very proud of all of our sponsors" : Dog Cocaine, "Cialis for h=rses" and the movie "CHIPS."

Tr=mp: "I actually see a lot of myself in you, Bill. ... I'= more familiar with this case than I am with, say, health care. But I didn=t really look into it much."

"I=was too busy being super-presidential. ... I'm back, bab=!"

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