Subject: Axios Sneak Peek — Scoop: Trump's potentially explosive trade play?
From: "Jonathan Swan" <[email-masked]>
To: <[email-masked]>
Date: Sun, 9 Apr 2017 16:57:06 -0400 (EDT)

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Scoop: Trump's potentially explosive trade play

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Presented By Koch Industries

Axios Sneak Peek

By Jonathan Swan = ·Apr 09, 2017<=span>

Welcome to Sneak Peek, our weekly lookahead =or both ends of Pennsylvania Avenue. I'd love your tips a=d feedback: jonath=[email-masked]. And please urge your friends and colleag=es to join the conversation by signing up for Sneak Peek. See you all=week in the Axios STREAM.

1 big thing: Trump's potentially explosive trade play

The Trump administration is working on an executive order that would ini=iate investigations into "unfair" product dumping from foreign companies =E2�� an action that could lead to tariffs on a wide range of products.=/p>
These plans are very fluid, and internal disagreements remain about =ow aggressive this order should be. Here's what I've learned from administ=ation sources:

Steel and aluminum will be targeted.
A White House official said this investigation is part of Trump=s effort to protect American jobs and end unfair trade practices like dump=ng and foreign government subsidization.

"The administration will u=e the results of that investigation to determine the best path forward, wh=ch could potentially include everything from no action at all to the levyi=g of supplemental duties," the White House official said. "But whichever a=tion we take will be informed by the results of the investigation and not =y predetermined conclusions."

Scope: This=investigation could result in penalties that would be much broader than th= anti-steel dumping measure the N=w York Times previewed last week.

Timing: Com=erce Secretary Wilbur Ross is running point on this executive order, and a= administration source tells me it could arrive as early as late April. Bu= there's no point getting too wedded to that timeline, because Trump has s=owed the pace of executive actions and this is an especially sensitive one= If it's clumsy, foreign trading partners could see this as the first shot=in a trade war.

What Ross says, thro=gh a spokesman: "Trade negotiations and discussions should happen in the b=ard room, not in the press room."

The narrati=e: If this investigation leads to penalties on foreign trading pa=tners, it will be a big (and much-needed) win for Steve Bannon, Stephen Mi=ler, Peter Navarro, and other economic nationalists in Trump's orbit. Give= the Syria strikes and Bannon's demotion from the NSC, their clout has app=ared to diminish. The Goldman wing, meanwhile, will likely oppose aggressi=e trade moves.

2. The fight over Trump's foreign policy

Nikki Haley and Rex Tillerson may need to talk. The Trump administration=s two most prominent foreign-policy figures went on the Sunday shows to se=l the President's Syria strikes — and made two opposite arguments.=Haley, the UN ambassador, pushed for regime change in Syria, while Secreta=y of State Tillerson argued that could make things worse. The president ha=n't publicly commented on the regime change question since the strikes.
Why this matters: The interventionist forces in the T=ump administration won the first skirmish — Bannon argued against =he Syrian strikes, and lost — but don't expect the America Firster= to back down easy. The fact that their divisions are so public suggests t=ey aren't talking to each other. Which is unusual.

Ha=ey told Jake Tapper on CNN's "State of the Union": "Regime change=is something that we think is going to happen because all of the parties a=e going to see that Assad is not the leader that needs to be taking place =or Syria ... There's not any sort of option where a political solution is =oing to happen with Assad at the head of the regime."

Tillerson, meanwhile, told George Stephanopoulos on ABC's="This Week": "When you undertake a violent regime change in Libya, and the=situation in Libya continues to be very chaotic and I would argue that the=life of the Libyan people has — is not all that well off today, so=I think we have to learn the lessons of the past and learn the lessons of =hat went wrong in Libya when you choose that pathway of regime change."

Also important: Bloomberg's Jennifer Jacobs reports K.T. McFarland has been as=ed to step down as Deputy National Security Adviser. The former Fox News c=mmentator is the third controversial figure to leave the NSC, following Ge=. Mike Flynn and Steve Bannon. Count this another step in the mainstreamin= of the NSC under new boss, Gen. H.R. McMaster.

3. The left's next Tea Party

Ezra Levin, executive director of the Indivisible Project, on MSNBC's "AM Joy" with Joy Reid.

Mark Saturday, April 15, as the next big moment for the progres=ive resistance against Trump.

A Democratic operative involved in the=planning tells me a "who's-who of progressive power" will join a "Tax Marc=" to demand Trump release his tax returns:

More than 60 groups will participate, including MoveOn.org, CREW,=Communications Workers of America, American Federation of Teachers, Americ=ns for Tax Fairness, Indivisible, the Sunlight Foundation, and Our Revolut=on (the group that spun off from Bernie Sanders' campaign.)

Organi=ers are planning more than 100 marches around the country. The Tax March i= D.C. will begin with a rally outside the Capitol, before proceeding past =he Trump International Hotel and the IRS building.

Why th=s matters: The Trump tax-returns issue won't matter unless people=start publicly organizing around it. That organization may be starting. A=so, the marches will highlight a progressive alternative to Republicans' w=iting-for-lift-off tax reform plan. The operative says it's no coincidence=the march will come exactly eight years after the April, 15, 2009, rally t=at was seen as the big kick off of the Tea Party.

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4. Hot papers

Around midweek, Mick Mulvaney's Office of Management and Budget will sen= a "guidance" letter to federal agencies ordering them to create plans to =ake themselves significantly smaller and less costly. It's part of Mulvane='s effort to make the federal government more efficient.

This could=be a big deal, and it fits in with Bannon's plan to deconstruct — =r, as Kushner would have it, reconstruct and reimagine — the "admi=istrative state."

The guidance stems from Trump's March 13 execut=ve order, which called for a "comprehensive plan" to reorganize the ex=cutive branch. Agencies will likely consider selling real estate, laying o=f personnel, and eliminating programs deemed redundant. It's possible some=agencies or components could be closed down or folded into other agencies.=/p>
What's next: Expect updates throughout the year, cu=minating with a final proposal around 2019 budget time next April.

1 forgotten thing: conservatives

The Steve Bannon—Jared Kushner soap opera has reduced every Whit= House "palace intrigue" story to the same reductive battle: the populist =ationalists versus the New York liberals. If Trump fired Bannon, every new=paper would likely call it the death of the nationalists and dawn of the l=berals.

But that would miss an important element of this White House= movement conservatives. They aren't as cable news-friendly as Kushner and=Bannon — every cable bookers' dream duo — but they have qu=etly shaped much of the president's domestic agenda. Their priorities incl=de substantial domestic budget cuts, the elimination of federal funding to=Planned Parenthood, a sweeping executive order on religious liberty, repea=ing Obamacare, and gutting the EPA.

Most important, these people =E2�� with one or two exceptions — have avoided unforced errors=and distracting drama. That's why they get so little coverage, and why the='re poised to become the true counterweight to Kushner and co.

The=most visible figures in this camp are Mike Pence, Kellyanne Conway, and Mi=k Mulvaney. But there are a host of others installed at the White =ouse who movement conservatives trust:

Marc Short, dir=ctor of Legislative Affairs

Rick Dearborn, deputy chief of staff
Paul Teller, who handles conservative outreach for Legislative Affai=s

Russ Vought, deputy director of the Office of Management and Bud=et

Paul Winfree, deputy director of the Domestic Policy Council
Brian Blase, who handles healthcare on the National Economic Council<=li>
Mike Catanzaro, who handles domestic energy and environmental polic= on the National Economic Council=/span>

Andy Koenig, policy special assistant on the Legislative Af=airs team.

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