Subject: ?Axios Sneak Peek: The 'candy option' — Leadership's next crisis? — BOTUS, the Trumpbot
From: "Jonathan Swan" <[email-masked]>
To: <[email-masked]>
Date: Sun, 16 Apr 2017 14:02:59 -0400 (EDT)

Presented by Koch Industries:

The 'candy option' — Leadership's next crisis? — BOTUS, =he Trumpbot

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Presented By Koch Industries

Axios Sneak Peek

By Jonathan Swan = ·Apr 16, 2017<=span>

Hope you got a breather during this holiday =eekend. Please have your friends and colleagues sign up here for Sneak Peek and the other Axios newsletters.

1 big thing: The "candy option"

House Ways and Means Chairman Rep. Kevin Brady (R-Texas) will be a key f=ce in the tax-reform debate / AP's Susan Walsh

As full-blown tax reform looks more and more like an un=eachable stretch, there's increasing conversation on the Hill about what's=being called a "candy option" — all the goodies, with none of the =ain.

That would mean lower personal and corporate r=tes, plus some limited repatriation, funded largely by deficit spending. <=p>

The case for: "It's something they can pass," s=id a Republican lobbyist who's deeply connected to all sides of the debate= "We need to junk our current tax code for one more suited to the modern e=onomy. But the ability to accomplish that goal just isn't there."

=span>The objection: Both House and Senate leadersh=p sources tell us they don't think the "candy" route is feasible. "The pro=lem with the candy option is it grows quickly," a senior Senate aide said.=What he meant is that once you cut corporate rates, politically you have t= also deal with pass-throughs for small businesses and also lower individu=l rates.

Then there's the "Ivanka credit" for child care. Pretty soon, you've racked up several trillion in rev=nue losses. And while you might not have angered anyone by taking away the=r goodies or imposing a new revenue mechanism (like the border-adjustment =ax), you've still got a heck of a job convincing Republicans in either cha=ber to pass something that blows a hole in budget and is by definition tem=orary (since under reconciliation, you can't make the cuts permanent if th=y add to the deficit).

The bottom line: Speaker Ryan is still determined to go as big as possible and do real t=x reform. But the White House needs to buy into it and get right behind it= Otherwise there'll be the same disaster as healthcare. A senior H=use aide said: "When it comes to real tax reform, there is no eas= option."

2. No mood for a fight

They're playing tough in public — it's called n=gotiating — but privately, senior White House officials are in no =ood to get into a knock-down-drag-out fight over government funding.
The government runs out of money April 29, and the White =ouse has less fire in its belly than it might seem from media reports. Aro=nd a week and a half ago, Budget Director Mick Mulvaney "came in a little =ot" in setting terms of negotiations with appropriators, according to a Se=ate source familiar with the meeting. Mulvaney said Trump needed language =n the bill to cut funding to sanctuary cities.

The real=ty, according to three well-placed sources: These words are fairl= toothless.

Behind-the-scenes: If Trumpcare 1.0 h=dn't been such a mishandled flop, the administration might be willing to p=ck real funding fights over sanctuary cities or Planned Parenthood. But wi=h healthcare still unresolved, the White House can't risk another calamity=like a shutdown. The administration will be happy to claim a couple of "vi=tories" — like boosted military spending and border security money= if not specifically for the bricks-and-mortar wall — and then mov= on as quickly as possible.

The wildcard: Chuck Schumer has plenty of leverage and won't concede anything of va=ue to Trump in the negotiations; but he's the predictable one. Top sources=in the House and Senate tell me their much bigger concern is the Freedom C=ucus. If these ultra-conservative House members come back from recess and =sk for things leadership can't deliver — like defunding Planned Pa=enthood or cutting the payments to Obamacare insurers — then leade=ship and the White House will have a new crisis on their hands.

3. Trump's Easter tweets

A prolific morning at Mar-a-Lago ...

A message from Koch Industries

Koch Industries earns the 2016 Energy Star®�=A0Partner of the Year award

Over the past 5 years, Koch companies saved enough energy to power 360,0=0 average households for one year. Learn more about ou= initiatives in responsibility.

4. The shows

Sunday highlight reel, with reactions =o North Korea:

Sen. John McCain, to Chuck Todd=on NBC's "Meet =he Press: "China is the key. ... This may be the first test of this pr=sidency."

National Security Adviser H.R. McMaster,ABC's "=his Week": "I think there's an international consensus now, including =E2�� including the Chinese and the Chinese leadership — that t=is is a situation that just can't continue."

Homeland Secu=ity Secretary John Kelly, in his first Sunday-show interview, on =Meet": "In the case of North Korea, ... a kinetic threat again=t the United States right now, I don't think is likely. But certainly a cy=er threat."

5. 1 fun thing: Trump stock-trading bot

NPR's "Planet Money" podcast built a computer program t=at trades stocks based on President Trump's tweets. It=s called BOTUS. Here's the podcast on how they made it.

Why T=ump makes it easy for computers: "Those algorithms work really we=l, because he uses words like 'bad' and 'sad' and 'great' ... and they alw=ys mean what he means them to mean."

A message from Koch Industries

Koch companies work every day on energy efficiency<=span>

Koch’s John Zink Hamworthy Combustion creates cleaner combustion=while increasing safety and reducing energy. Learn more about ou= philosophy on responsibility.

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