Subject: ?Axios AM: Mike's Top 10 — The new Bay of Pigs — Amazing graph from Trump Country — 1 lesson from United for your organization
From: "Mike Allen" <[email-masked]>
To: <[email-masked]>
Date: Mon, 17 Apr 2017 06:52:11 -0400 (EDT)

Presented by Bank of America:

The new Bay of Pigs — Amazing graph from Trump Country �=94 1 lesson from United for your organization

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Presented By Bank of America

Axios AM

By Mike Allen = ·Apr 17, 2017

1 big thing: "Strategic patience is over"

Vice President Pence watches with his daughter Charlotte and Gen. Vincen= Brooks, commander of U.S. forces in Korea, while his daughter Audrey look= through binoculars to see North Korea from Observation Post Ouellette in =he DMZ.

After a reprieve over the weekend with the bellyflop of=the North Korean missile test, experts warn that tensions with the U.S. wi=l "remain dangerously high for the indefinite future."<=p>
The New York Times captures it most memorably in a <= href="http://link.axios.com/click/9403651.38474/aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cubnl0aW1=cy5jb20vMjAxNy8wNC8xNi91cy9wb2xpdGljcy9ub3J0aC1rb3JlYS1taXNzaWxlLWNyaXNpcy=zbG93LW1vdGlvbi5odG1sP3V0bV9zb3VyY2U9bmV3c2xldHRlciZ1dG1fbWVkaXVtPWVtYWlsJ=V0bV9jYW1wYWlnbj1uZXdzbGV0dGVyX2F4aW9zYW0/5871993924c17c54d77a8b8cBe4dc490=" target="_blank">front-page analysis by David Sanger and Bill Broad= "What is playing out, said Robert Litwak of the Woodrow Wilson Internatio=al Center for Scholars, ... is 'the Cuban missile crisis in slow m=tion.'

"But the slow-motion part appears to be spe=ding up."

We can hear that unmistakably in=remarks today by Vice President Pence inside the Demilitarized Zone betwee= North and South Korea — at Freedom House, a few meters from the m=litary demarcation line, which he described as a "frontier of freedom," pe= a pool report by AFP's Andrew Beatty:

"Asked his message to the people of North Korea, VPOTUS said: ... 'the era of s=rategic patience is over.'"

Why it matters: Just 12 days from Trump's 100-day mark, his biggest test (including =f his vow to both talk and act tough) is unfolding in real time — =ith massive global consequences.

<=mg width="32" height="32" style="border: none" target="_blank" src=3D"https://static.axios.com/img-email/email-circle.png" alt="Email this =tory">

2. "Partisanship triumphs over reality"

All you need to know about the iron loyalty of Trump voters ... =/strong>From the heart of Trump country, Craig Gilbert writes in the "Trump's election did more than change the=expectations of Republicans and Democrats about the economy's future <=em>performance. It altered their assessments of the economy's actual performance."
The numbers: "When GOP voters in Wisconsin were asked=last October whether the economy had gotten better or worse 'over the past=year,' they said 'worse' — by a margin of 28 points. But when they=were asked the very same question last month, they said 'better' —=by a margin of 54 points.That's a net swing of 82 percentage points betwee= late October 2016 and mid-March 2017.

What i= means: "What changed so radically in those four and a half month=? The economy didn't. But the political landscape did."

3. Top talker: "a ghoulishly perfect week"

Jim Rutenberg "Mediator" column =rom Moscow, on N.Y. Times Business Day front, "In Russia, a Pliant Press T=at Trump So Craves":

I wan=ed to better understand President Trump's America ... So I went t= Russia.

It was like a=visit to the land of Alternative Truth Yet to Come. But it also g=ve me a glimpse into how our new national look is playing in the global in=ormation war, where competing narratives are clashing along a sliding scal= of fact and fiction.

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4. I see you, 2018!

America First Policies, the outside group run by top ve=erans of the Trump campaign (including Brad Pascale, Nick Ayers, Katie Wal=h and Katrina Pierson), today begins its largest ad campaign since the ele=tion:

What's planned: a $3 million recess buy (including broadcast, cable, digital and =hones) in 12 House districts, thanking Members for supporting repeal/repla=e. The group is pushing the hashtag #ROCC: RepealObamaCareCaucus.

=strong>Why it matters: White House aides and allies have been anx=ous for the outside group to begin flexing its muscle. All signs are that =rump voters remain passionate and supportive, but little has been done to =arness them since the inauguration.

But, but, but ... Bob Costa points out: "[T]he main obstacle facing Trump in Con=ress isn't losing rank-and-file House Republicans who already support him =E2�� it's the hard-line Freedom Caucus that has not supported the legi=lation."

5. Hot shot

David Smith, @SmithInAmerica

David Smith, Washington correspondent of The Guardian, =ook this Easter afternoon shot up Pennsylvania Avenue from the clock tower=of the Old Post Office Tower in the Trump International Hotel. He gives Ax=os AM readers the story behind the frame:

You go in at the back of the hotel, next =o the Starbucks. There's a long corridor with blue walls and a small exhib=tion with photos about the history of Washington ... Then you walk into an=elevator that shoots up and gives you a view (through shaded glass) over t=at central atrium in the hotel ...

6. 2 elections with huge ripple effects

Front page of today's Daily Mail of London

Vast new powers for the president of Turkey ... BBC: "President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's pu=h for an executive presidency succeeded with just over 51% of the vote. Th= win was met with both celebrations and protests across Turkey."

Also worthy of your attention ... Six days from Round 1 of th= French election, markets are leary of two separate trends:

Nationalism's big test ... Financial Times second front, "Poll fluctuation= complicate euro investors' push to guard against Le Pen win," by Roge= Blitz in London: " Volatility in the euro has soared to the highest level= since the weeks before the Brexit vote as investors grapple with the risk=of a populist triumph in France's presidential election."

= communist rises ... WashPost front page, "Against the odds, a communist soars in French election=polls," by James McAule in Lille, France: Jean-Luc Mélenchon �=80� "an outspoken 65-year-old leftist who often appears on the campaign =rail via hologram and who has pitched his proposal to nationalize France's=biggest banks and renegotiate its relationship with the European Union via=free Internet games and YouTube videos — is now soaring in the pol=s. ... [H]is meteoric and unexpected rise is already sending jitters throu=h financial markets and shock waves through an increasingly anxious electo=ate."

7. Futurecast: Facebook amps up AR

On the eve of tomorrow's kickoff of the massive, two-da= F8 Facebook Developer Conference in San Jose, a couple of worthy lookahea=s ...

The big dream ... "How augmented reality may =hange how you use Facebook sooner than you think," by USA Today's Jessica Guynn: "Here's the future=according to Facebook [still years away]: The smartphone camera is on the =erge of taking augmented-reality mainstream, changing how people use Faceb=ok, how they interact with each other and how they interact with the world="

What's coming: "We will wander ... two worl=s — the physical and the digital — wearing glasses or cont=ct lenses that can summon information about the street we are walking on o= the restaurant we are eating in."

Zuck's makeover ...=/strong> "Selling Mark Zuckerberg: The Fa=ebook CEO's likability blitz isn't a presidential campaign, it's a focus g=oup for his 1.8 billion constituents — and part of a high stakes c=mpaign to win your likes," by BuzzFeed's Natasha Tiku:

Zuckerberg, now a 32-yea=-old dad with one daughter and another on the way, has evolved considerabl= ... He hired speechwriters. He spruced up his uniform from Valley schlub =o monochrome minimalism. He took on a series of annual self-improvement ch=llenges ...

=[H]e has improved his EQ," [Recode's Kara Swisher said.] (EQ is s=orthand for emotional quotient, a popular rubric for measuring interperson=l skills in Silicon Valley.) "He was super, super awkward to talk to and h= knew that he had a problem and he was fully aware. He cared about changin= it."

As has happened before, before Facebook'= good news competes with tragedy among users ... Cleveland P=ain Dealer: "Even in a city wracked by crime, the calls that came in t= police Sunday afternoon seemed unbelievable. Numerous people were watchin= a man [Steve Stephens, 37, of Cleveland,] ranting about =is miserable life live on Facebook and threatening to kill someone at rand=m. And then he did just that."

What happened: "His vic=im — Robert Godwin Jr., a 74-year-old father of nine and =randfather of 14 — just happened to walk into the path of deranged=gunman about 2 p.m. on East 93rd Street ... Stephens filmed the=shooting and posted it to his Facebook page." Stephens was still at la=ge this morning.

8. Axios' first column

Rebecca Zisser / Axios

Amy Harder, who joined us from The Wall Street Journal =o cover energy, today debuts "Harder Line" ...

<=i>"Corporate America isn't backing Trump on climate": "[C=orporate backing of global action on climate change is helping push Presid=nt Trump away from his campaign promise to pull out of the climate deal."<=li>
See Amy's column first in Ben Geman's great energy=newsletter, Generate. Sign up here. (Don't miss the bus! Use=the same link to get your friends and colleagues to sign up for AM.)
<=ul>

9. Lessons of United

A lesson for your organization ... Wall Street Journal second fr=nt, "Behind United's Fateful Move =o Call Police," by Susan Carey:

The recipe for the disastrous decision ... was years in=the making.

Deviating from=the rules is frowned upon; employees can face termination for a f=ul-up ... [T]his has helped create a rules-based culture where its 85,000 =mployees are reluctant to make choices not in the "book" ...

[On "Good Morning America," CEO Oscar Munoz] said United hasn't provided its front-line managers and =upervisors with "the proper tools, policies, procedures that allow=them to use their common sense."

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10. 1 fun thing

Tapper imagines Faberge eggs at today's Egg Roll.

More than 21,000 people are expected a= President's Trump's first Easter Egg Roll on the South Lawn today, down f=om 35,000 last year, AP's Darlene=Superville reports.

In the weekly video cartoonon his "State of the Union," CNN's Jake Tapper imagines a few Tr=mpian touches to the 139-year-old tradition.

A message from Bank of America

New report: millennials buying homes, saving early<=span>

A growing group of forward-thinking millennials are buying homes, accord=ng to Bank of America’s Homebuyer Insights Report. A key driver of=America’s economic engine, millennials are investing in homes for =ong-term financial benefits. Learn more.

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