Subject: Axios AM: Mike's Top 10 ? — The next political minefield: Jobs in retail — Possible O'Reilly successors — Apple's Tim Cook honored in D.C.
From: "Mike Allen" <[email-masked]>
To: <[email-masked]>
Date: Wed, 19 Apr 2017 06:56:14 -0400 (EDT)

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The next political minefield: Jobs in retail — Possible O'Reilly=successors — Apple's Tim Cook honored in D.C.

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Axios AM

By Mike Allen = ·Apr 19, 2017

1 big thing: Red scare

Karen Handel, Republican candidate for Georgia's Sixth Congressional sea=,celebrates her birthday at an election-night watch party in Roswell, Ga. = AP's David Goldman

President Trump got to claim a Twitter victory early th=s morning in that high-stakes special House election in the Atlanta suburb=. The two parties now plunge into an expensive two-month runoff as they tr= to excite their donors and bases heading into next year's congressional =idterms:

The bottom line, from Atlanta-Journa=-Constitution's Greg Blu=stein: "The proxy fight between Democrats and Republicans will continu= in Georgia for two more months."

The lead: "Democra= Jon Ossoff [48%] is headed for a runoff in June against a Republican cont=nder after failing Tuesday to score an upset victory to [replace now-HHS S=cretary Tom Price in] a suburban Atlanta district in Congress. He goes int= a June 20 runoff against Karen Handel," who got 20%. (The numbers.)

Trump's tweet: "Despite major o=tside money, FAKE media support and eleven Republican candidates, BIG "R" =in with runoff in Georgia. Glad to be of help!"

What's nex=, from N.Y. Times' Jonathan Martin and Richard Fausset<=u>, from Atlanta: "Ossoff's strong showing will ensure that national Democ=ats continue to compete here and will increase pressure on the party to contest a special House election next month in Montana that it has so=far ignored."

What it means: "Combined =ith Democrats' better-than-expected performance in a special House electio= in Kansas last week, the Georgia result will be an immediate boon to Demo=ratic groups, lifting their fund-raising and bolstering candidate recruitm=nt efforts, while sobering Republicans who are assessing whether to run in=Mr. Trump's first midterm election.

Adding i= up: "Already, Republican candidates and outside groups have had =o spend over $7 million against Democrats in a series of deeply conservati=e districts."

2. The bigger fight

Other big signs of energy among liberal donors ... Both=parties see a surge in donations ahead of next year's Senate races, per USA Today's lead story, by Fred=eka Schouten:

"Many vulnerable Senate Democrat= saw their campaign donations soar during the first three months of the ye=r ... The 10 Democratic incumbents up for re-election in states carried by=President Trump collectively raised nearly $19 million between Jan. 1 and =arch 31, more than twice what they collected during the comparable period =f their last Senate campaigns."

"Leading the =ack: Missouri Sen. Claire McCaskill ... raised $2.8 million durin= the first quarter of the year, far outpacing the $1.1 million she had col=ected at this point six years ago. ... [A] possible McCaskill challenger, =epublican Rep. Ann Wagner, had amassed a $2.8 million war chest."

=strong>Senate Republicans "raised $7 million in March alone, [the=NRSC's] highest monthly haul in a non-election year."

"[S]=veral House Republicans considering bids against vulnerable Senat= Democrats have assembled massive war chests."

3. Megatrend: Retail workers being displaced in droves

Data: Bureau of Labor Statis=ics; Chart: Lazaro Gamio / Axios

After a steep rise following the financial crisis, U.S.=retail jobs have been plummeting since the start of the year, A=ios' Steve LeVine writes:

Why it matters: the working class people=whose shrinking opportunities have underpinned populist politics in the U.=. and abroad.

The jobs being created in=their stead, in online warehouses for companies like Amazon, are too few t= soak up those displaced.

Our thought bubble: Unt=l now, retail workers — unlike the car-making and coal-mining indu=tries — have made little political splash. Look for that t= change.

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4. Beyond the bubbles: "Getting" Trump

U.S. flags hang outside a downtown building whose storefronts are made u= of businesses started by African immigrants who have settled in Lewiston,=Maine / AP's David Goldman

A worthy-of-your-time Trump Country package from AP ... "Refugees and Resentment — How a community changed by refugees came to embrace Trump=" by Claire Galofaro in Lewiston, Maine:

This "working-class community, built along the bank= of the Androscoggin River in the whitest state in America, is a place tha= some point to as proof that refugee integration can work. And yet for the=first time in 30 years, voters in Androscoggin County chose a Republican f=r president, endorsing Trump's nativist zeal against the very sort of immi=rants who share their streets and their schools. ...

The sprawling brick mills that lin= the river sit mostly shuttered. A quarter of children grow up poor. Taxpa=ers pick up the welfare tab. So Trump's supporters here tie their embrace =f his immigration clampdown to their economic anxieties, and their belief =hat the newcomers are taking more than they have earned.

5. Local, state tax deductions on Gary Cohn's list

Trump top economic adviser Gary Cohn has privately said=he's warming to the idea of eliminating the local and state tax deduction =o pay for tax cuts and simplify the code, Axios's Jonathan Swan repo=ts:

What it means: The White House needs a=ton of money to pay for corporate, individual and small business tax cuts =not to mention the "Ivanka credit" for childcare.) Getting rid of these st=te and local deductions is a dream Republicans have long held and would ra=se an estimated $1 trillion over 10 years.

Caveat: No final decisions have been made, and the administration's tax reform pl=ns are still a long way from prime time.

What the White Ho=se says: "We haven't reached the stage of talking about which ded=ctions would stay or go because we are still in listening mode, hearing fr=m key stakeholders before developing a comprehensive plan. To the extent s=ate and local deductions have been discussed, they've been among a laundry=list of options that could be explored — no more those than any ot=ers."

6. A quiet strategy, and a "false narrative"

The case of the elusive aircraft carrier ...

The memorable headline on the N.Y. Times' =-column lead story: "AIRCRAFT CARRIER WAS =OT HEADING WHERE U.S. SAID: FAR FROM NORTH KOREA — After a We=k of Asian Tensions, Officials Detail Miscues," by Mark Lander and Eric Sc=mitt:

"[T]he carrier, the Carl Vinson, and th= three other warships in its strike force were that very moment sailing in=the opposite direction, to take part in joint exercises with the Australia= Navy in the Indian Ocean, 3,500 miles southwest of the Korean Peninsula."=/li>
"White House officials said Tuesday that they had=been relying on guidance from the Defense Department. Officials there desc=ibed a glitch-ridden sequence of events, from an ill-timed announcement of=the deployment by the military's Pacific Command to a partially erroneous =xplanation by the defense secretary, Jim Mattis — all of which per=etuated the false narrative that a flotilla was racing toward the =aters off North Korea."

The bottom line, "U.S. tough talk belies actions"<=strong>: "While officials are eager to signal a break from previous U.S. p=licy, their strategy appears to be a continuation of the Obama administrat=on's attempt to use international economic and diplomatic pressure to forc= results in Pyongyang."

7. Facebook's next frontier

Facebook CEO Mark Zuckerberg speaks at yesterday's F8 conference / AP's =oah Berger

Axios' Kia Kokalitcheva wri=es from Facebook's developers' conference in San Jose that th= social network's next frontier is using devices like smartphones to decor=te, distort, animate, or annotate the world around us. Yesterday's hot ann=uncements:

Camera Effects Platform: A set of=software tools for developers and creators that lets them build filters an= effects that can recognize objects and add 3D effects to photos and video=.

Facebook Spaces for Oculus: A new virtual real=ty app for hanging out with friends. But socializing in a world of avatars=requires special devices and technology that's still in its early days.
Messenger 2.0: Admitting that last year's release of=chat bots wasn't as polished as it could have been, Facebook came back wit= new and improved ones, along with other fresh features for its messaging =pp. It's clear Facebook wants to turn Messenger into the way busi=esses interact with customers.

What's next: F=cebook today is expected to unveil new gadgets its secretive Building 8 un=t has been developing.

8. "Factor"ed out

Representatives for Fox News and Bill O'Reilly "have be=un talking about an exit" and "he will probably not be back on the "Factor=" per CNN's Brian Stelter:

<=trong>So: Dana Perino? Eric Bolling? Jesse Watters [O'Reilly's mo=t frequent fill-in]? An 8pm edition of "The Five?" Something else?Axios AM is told corporate execs would love t= bring in an outside, non-political big name from another network ...

9. 1 important thing

Washington Post Publisher Fred Ryan (left) presents Free Speech Award to=Apple CEO Tim Cook / Photo by @JimVandeHei

Honorees last night at the Newseum's second annual Free Expression Awards:

Lifetime Achievement Award: Rep. John Lewis

=ree Speech Award: Apple CEO Tim Cook

Free Press A=ard: ABC's Martha Raddatz

Religious Freedom Award= Kristina Arriaga de Bucholz, executive director of Becket Law

Fun fact: Tim Cook was seated between two of my =o-founders at Politico, Washington Post Publisher Fred Ryan and Axios CEO =im VandeHei.

10. 1 fun thing: Bean-counting on the Strip

"In Las Vegas, Drinks Flow a Little Less Freely: Casinos are introducing technology to signal when a person has=played enough poker to get a complimentary pour; 'Is my light green?'" =E2�� Wall Street journal A-Hed, by Chris Kirkham:

As Las Vegas has transformed into one =f the world's most-visited tourist destinations, casino operators are re-e=amining the perks that historically lured gamblers. Over the past year, ca=inos have started charging for parking at resorts on the Strip, eliciting =riticism from locals and longtime visitors who view free casino parking as=a sacred tradition. Now operators have started scrutinizing complimentary =rinks, introducing new technology at bars that track how much someone has =ambled—and rewards them accordingly ...

It's a shift from decades of more-inform=l interplay between bartenders and gamblers. ... Casinos on the Strip now =erive a smaller share of revenue from gambling. In 1996, more than half of=annual casino revenue on the Strip came from gambling. Last year, the shar= was down to about a third, according to the University of Nevada-Las Vega=. More of the revenue comes from hotels, restaurants and bars.... So far the system app=ies only to machines at casino bars. Players at slot machines on the floor=can still wave down cocktail servers for free drinks.

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A message from Bank of America

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