Subject: Axios AM: Mike's Top 10 — Next: Frexit?! ???? — Golden parachutes for O'Reilly and Ailes vs. settlements with accusers
From: "Mike Allen" <[email-masked]>
To: <[email-masked]>
Date: Fri, 21 Apr 2017 07:01:23 -0400 (EDT)

Presented by Bank of America:

Axios AM: Mike's Top 10 — Next: Frexit?! 🇫�=B7 — Golden parachutes for O'Reilly and Ailes vs. settlements with=accusers

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Presented By Bank of America

Axios AM

By Mike Allen = ·Apr 21, 2017

1 big thing: Could Frexit be next?

Police seal off the Champs-Élysées / AP's Kamil Zihnioglu

With the Islamic State claiming responsibility for the =hooting death of a policeman on Paris' iconic Champs-Élysées jus= ahead of Sunday's first-round French elections, social media and commenta=ors see a change in the voting atmosphere that could benefit the far-right=populist Marine Le Pen.

If she won the runoff May 7,
Trump tweeted t=is morning: "Another terrorist attack in Paris. The people of Fra=ce will not take much more of this. Will have a big effect on presidential=election!"

Axios' Shane Savitsky says she could win, and notes she has promised a referendum to leave=the EU:

"If Trump's victory taught us anything= it should be that Le Pen certainly might win the French presidency. But T=ump taught us something else — talking the talk is easy, but follo=ing through once in power can be much harder. Le Pen's call to destroy the='anti-democratic monster' of the EU works well as a sound bite, but implem=nting it won't be easy."

For one thing ... Frexit=would be more difficult than Le Pen lets on because France's participation=in the EU is codified in its constitution.

AM in-box .=. Axios' Steve LeVine, a longtime foreign correspondent for the b=g papers, sees a "better than 50-50 chance" LePen goes all the way, based =artly on the "rule of threes" following the upset victories for Trump and =rexit. Steve emails me:

A wild card: =The first round is a tight race among four candidates, and one of=them — Jean-Luc Mélenchon — is every bit [the firebr=nd] as Le Pen, only from the far left. It's conceivable that the second ro=nd will pit [them] against one another. Like Le Pen, Mélenchon threat=ns to abandon the euro — which would likely lead to a collapse of =he unifying monetary union. In addition, Mélenchon vows to quit NATO,=the IMF and the World Trade Organization."

The takeaway: "These positions are why the French election ultimately is more imp=rtant to the U.S. than Brexit."

2. Potentially very significant

A win for Bannon ... Financial Times lead story, "Trump fires protect=onist warning over steel industry," by Shawn Donnan in D.C. (paywa=l): "The US has set the stage for a global showdown =ver steel, launching a national security investigation that could lead to =weeping tariffs on steel imports in what would be the first significant ac= of economic protectionism by President Donald Trump."

=hy it matters: "The decision to use a 1962 law allowing the US go=ernment to limit imports that threaten its security readiness is intended =o deliver on Mr Trump's campaign promises ... But it risks setting=off trade tensions with China."

The big picture, =/strong>from a New York Times front-pager by Mark Landler, "White House=Roaring Again On Free Trade": "From Mr. Trump's 'buy American, hire Americ=n' rallying cry in Wisconsin this week to Vice President Mike Pence's warn=ngs to Japan and South Korea about the need to rewrite trade deals, the Tr=mp administration is moving against free trade on multiple fronts."
What's next: "A senior White House official said there w=uld be two trade-related events a week for the next few weeks."

Key sentence: "The flurry of activity amounts to a comeback =y nationalists like Mr. Bannon."

3. Connecting the dots

The autocratic turn in Turkey, the rise of the nationalists, a f=ee-speech crisis on campuses ... David Brooks' column, "The Cris=s of Western Civ," says it's all part of a collapse of the "higher rea=hes of the humanistic ideal":

"It is as if a prevailing=wind, which powered all the ships at sea, had suddenly ceased to =low. Now various scattered enemies of those Western values have emerged, a=d there is apparently nobody to defend them."

"If <=i>"While running for office, Donald Trump vi=lated every norm of statesmanship built up over these many centuries, and =t turned out many people didn't notice or didn't care. The faith in the We=t collapsed from within.

"[T]is assumed to be reactionary and opp=essive. ... [I]f you think that was reactionary and oppressive, wa=t until you get a load of the world that comes after it."

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4. "New normal" may be back: anemic economic growth

A Wall Street Journal front-pager, "

"[T]here are signs that the sugar rush of Donald Trump's victory and global-growth hopes ha= faded, raising doubts among some investors about whether stocks can stay =igh."

"Technology stocks' return to favor also su=gests investors are looking for companies able to deliver growth even if t=e economy is weak."

Caveat: "[T]here is a long hi=tory of first-quarter data being wrong due to seasonal adjustment errors."=/li>

5. How Amazon will become the first $1 trillion stock

The case for "AMZN $1T" by Scott Galloway, founder of m=rketing company L2 and an NYU professor, is spelled out in a MarketWatch post:

=strong>The strategy: "I think Amazon is going to say to a series =f households, 'Tell you what: You don't need any other retailer."

=strong>The long game: "Jeff Bezos & Co. have declared war on =onventional brands, changed the relationship between a company and its sha=eholders, and deployed Alexa ... in clever ways. ... Amazon is giving peop=e a discount on laundry detergent and other products when they order throu=h Alexa."

Why it matters: "[T]he sto=k's going to become the first $1 trillion market cap company in the histor= of business."

P.S. "Facebook's record lobbying quarter," by Axios' Da=id McCabe: "Facebook spent more on [federal] lobbying in the first three m=nths of 2017 [$3.21 million] than it has in any previous quarter since reg=stering in 2009."

What it lobbied on: Immigrat=on, surveillance and connectivity, among many other issues.

6. If you read only 1 thing

The ultimate megatrend, from the N.Y. Times Magazine's =orthcoming Climate Issue ... "Ou= Climate Future Is Actually Our Climate Present: How do we li=e with the fact that the world we knew is going and, in some cases, alread= gone?" by Jon Mooallem:

Th= future we've been warned about is beginning to saturate the pres=nt. We tend to imagine climate change as a destroyer. But it also traffics=in disruption, disarray: increasingly frequent and more powerful storms an= droughts; heightened flooding; expanded ranges of pests turning forests i=to fuel for wildfires; stretches of inhospitable heat. So many facets of o=r existence — agriculture, transportation, cities and the architec=ure they spawned — were designed to suit specific environments. No= they are being slowly transplanted into different, more volatile ones, wi=hout ever actually moving.

And in case that wasn't enou=h, from the same issue ... "Why the Menace =f Mosquitoes Will Only Get Worse: Climate change is altering =he environment in ways that increase the potential for viruses like Zika,"=by Maryn McKenna:

The unpr=dictable weather patterns stimulated by climate change affect inf=ctious diseases, as well as chronic ones. Warmer weather encourages food-b=rne organisms like salmonella to multiply more rapidly, and warmer seas fo=ter the growth of bacteria like Vibrio that make oysters unsafe to eat. Sp=kes in heat and humidity have less visible effects, too, changing the numb=rs and distribution of the insect intermediaries that carry diseases to pe=ple.

7. Trump's "trickiest task"

Get smart fast ... "Dealmaker, meet deal-breake=," says The Economist's cover story, "How to deal with the world's most=dangerous regime":

"For all his eccentricities, [North Korea's Kim Jong-un] is behaving rationally. He watched Muamma= Qadaffi of Libya give up his nuclear programme in return for better relat=ons with the West — and end up dead. He sees his nuclear arsenal a= a guarantee that his regime, and he, will survive. (Though it would be su=cidal for him to use it.)"

"Mr Trump can do littleCyber-attacks, which may account for the failure of so=e recent missile launches, can slow but not stop him. America can=solve the Korean conundrum only with China's help."

"The crucial message for Mr Kim as for his predecessor= is that, if the North were to use its nukes, the regime would be oblitera=ed. In the long run, reunification is inevitable and desirable. Meanwhile,=the junior god-king can be deterred."

8. Tracking power: James Murdoch rising

NB= Nightly News

Pulling back the camera from Bill O'Reilly and the he was paid to leave (the value of one year on his contrac=), the Hollywood Reporter's Michael Wolff nails the generational fallout i= "It's James Murdoch's Fox News Now":

"R=pert Murdoch's son [the 21st Century Fox CEO] has overthrown his =wn network as he moves to reinvent the family company's profit machine at =reat risk."

"James Murdoch ... k=pt repeating with horror to his friends and executives: 'This is on the fr=nt page of The New York Times!' ... James Murdoch's longtime anno=ance if not disgust with Fox News became cold fury."

"[L]ikewise, it would b= hard to imagine how James could have been regarded with more contempt by =any of the people at Fox News. James was rather exhibit No. 1 of the liber=l elite entitlement that Fox had so profitably programmed against."
CNN's Brian Stelter has this "smart thou=ht from a TV newser": "Murdoch's children are playing the same kind of mod=rating role for Rupert that Trump's children are playing for the president="

Wash=ost's Paul Farhi: O'Reilly successor Tucker Carlson "speaks t= the same older conservative audience that was O'Reilly's core viewer. ...=Carlson, 47, is 20 years younger than O'Reilly, and thus gives the Murdoch= a younger face around which to build the network's future."

9. Bob Costa's new hat

Bob with last week's guests: Michael Crowley, AP's Vivian Salama, Peter =aker and Molly Ball.

WashPost's Bob Costa (who'll continue with the paper) w=ites to viewers of PBS' Friday night classic, "Washington Week," =fter being named moderator, succeeding the late Gwen Ifill:

"Washington Week is a treasured resource for so many viewers who value civil conver=ation and who care about how our democracy works. The past moderators of t=e program, and most especially Gwen Ifill, earned the trust and affection =f a large and loyal audience."

=I met Gwen when I was a first-time guest on Washington Week in 2014 and she told me about her values, a conversation I'll always re=ember. ... Early in the 2016 campaign, I remember being with Gwen in New H=mpshire during the primaries. It was a crazy day on the campaign trail, bu= somehow it didn't seem to faze Gwen. Even after her decades in the busine=s, she still loved being there. Gwen loved politics, her colleagues and he= viewers. "

Jonathan Swan tweets at Costa: "Congrats to a generous=guy and old fashioned (in a good way!) reporter."

10. 1 foodie thing

From Instagram of Aska, located in an 1860s re=tored warehouse building at the edge of the Williamsburg Bridge: Finnish c=viar and grilled onion with a broth of the charred onion skins and lemon v=rbena.

GQ's 10 Best New Resta=rants in America (alphabetical order), by Brett Martin, "expl=ring everything from neo-Nordic in Brooklyn to Korean pizza in Minneapolis=to ecstatic Mexican food in LA":

Aska (Brooklyn): Scandinavian high notes beneath the Williamsburg Bridge.

Flowers of Vietnam (Detroit): A son of Palestinian immigrant= does Southeast Asian in Mexicantown.

Han Oak=(Portland, Ore.): Casual Korean tasting menu collides with Portla=d cool.

Kato (L.A.): A West L.A.'s s=rip mall hosts the city's best-valued Asian tasting menu.

Kemuri Tatsu-ya (Austin): Giddy, riotous Japanese-Tex=n "Austin izakaya."

Rooster Soup Co.=(Philadelphia): Israeli chef Michael Salomonov's posse elevates J=wish diner favorites.

Salazar (L.A.):
Side Chick (L.A.): Transcendant Hainan chicken at the Wes=field Santa Anita mall.

Tarsan i Jane (Seattl=): Characteristic Catalan and Valencian inventiveness for the Nor=hwest.

Young Joni (Minneapolis): Woo=-fired pizzas and Korean small plates, in equal measure. America in 2017 o= a menu.

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