Subject: Axios Sneak Peek: Executive order scoops — shutdown latest — don't hang up on Nancy
From: "Jonathan Swan" <[email-masked]>
To: <[email-masked]>
Date: Sun, 23 Apr 2017 18:07:07 -0400 (EDT)

Presented by Koch Industries:

Executive order scoops — shutdown latest — don't hang up=on Nancy

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Presented By Koch Industries

Axios Sneak Peek

By Jonathan Swan = ·Apr 23, 2017<=span>

Welcome to Sneak Peek, our weekly lookahead =or both ends of Pennsylvania Avenue. I'd love your tips a=d feedback: jonath=[email-masked]. And please urge your friends and colleag=es to join the conversation by signing up for Sneak Peek. See you all=week in the Axios STREAM.

1 big thing: Scoop — the president's orders

President Trump is going on an executive order frenzy i= the final week of his first 100 days.

By Friday, Trump will have si=ned at least 32 executive orders — the most signed in the first 10= days of a new administration since World War II.

He=e are the executive orders coming this week, per a White=House source with direct knowledge:

"E=ecutive Order Improving Accountability and Whistleblower Protections at th= Department of Veterans Affairs": "This Executive Order will esta=lish, in the Department of Veterans Affairs, an Office of Accountability a=d Whistleblower Protection. The Office will help the Secretary of Veterans=Affairs to discipline or terminate VA managers or employees who fail to ca=ry out their duties in helping our veterans. The Office will also identify=barriers to the Secretary's authority to put the well-being of our veteran= first."

"Executive Order for a Review of Des=gnations under the Antiquities Act": "The Antiquities Act of 1906=authorizes the president to declare federal lands of historic or scientifi= value to be 'National Monuments' and thereby restrict the types of uses t= which those lands can be put...The Antiquities Act Executive Order direct= the Department of the Interior to review prior monument designations and =uggest legislative changes or modifications to the monument proclamations.=

"Executive Order Implementing an America-Fir=t Offshore Energy Strategy": "Past administrations have been over=y restrictive of off-shore energy exploration. The America First Energy Ex=cutive Order directs a review of the locations available for off-shore oil=and gas exploration and of certain regulations governing off-shore oil and=gas exploration."

"Executive Order Promoting =griculture and Rural Prosperity in America": "The Agriculture and=Rural Task Force Executive Order creates an interagency task force to exam=ne the concerns of rural America and suggest legislative and regulatory ch=nges to address them."

Behind-the-scenes: Tru=p, used to getting his own way in his business career, is frustrated that =ongress won't bend to his will. And he isn't the only one who feels like t=at. Trump's filled his administration with guys like Gary Cohn and Wilbur =oss who are used to having their orders followed. They, like Trump, regard=Washington and the folks who've spent their careers here, as hacks. Team T=ump is learning to love the executive order — the tool that gives =hem instant gratification.

2. Another scoop: there's more on trade

The White House communications team wouldn't confirm this, but my source= tell me there could be as many as three additional executive orde=s this week (in addition to the four we report on above!) �=94 all related to trade.

The big one,=which could come Thursday (but don't hold me to that date!) is a =imilar model to last week's presidential directive on steel; but t=is time it's applied to aluminum. Last week, Trump directed Comme=ce Secretary Wilbur Ross to investigate whether foreign steel imports comp=omise U.S. national security. This is a big deal — which largely g=t lost amid the North Korean crisis and the re-emergence of healthcare. If=Ross finds that steel or aluminum imports threaten national security, then=Trump can take extraordinary protectionist measures to rectify the situati=n.

My sources also tell me there could be a couple ot=er trade orders released in the lead-up to Trump's Saturday rally in Harri=burg, Pa., to mark his first 100 days. The spilt-screen image Trum= wants: As TV cameras show Washington's press co=ps dressed in black tie at the White House Correspondents Dinner, Trump is=giving a full-throated economic nationalist pitch in the heartland.
<=ul>
Connecting the dots: As we've written p=eviously, President Trump flip-flops all over the policy map, but the =ne thing he's believed constantly for 30 years is that America should be t=ugher on trade and retaliate against foreign governments who he thinks rip=the U.S. off. Trump doesn't believe it when people tell him America has to=leave heavy manufacturing behind and evolve into a sophisticated service e=onomy. Everything he's doing is about bringing back manufacturing jobs.
The globalist versus nationalist divisions in the White House ar= less than meet the eye when it comes to trade, because everyone knows whe=e Trump stands. In his appearance this week at a Washington conference, Ga=y Cohn kept emphasizing "fair" trade.

Cohn also embraced Trump's f=vorite word ("reciprocal") — a word that makes free traders feel nauseo=s.

Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin, who's closer to Trump than m=ny realize, recently pushed back on world finance chiefs who wanted America to =oin them in rejecting "protectionism."

North Korea got all the hea=lines during the recent trip to Asia by VP Mike Pence and Commerce's Ross.=But this trip was planned well in advance and trade was a major agenda ite=. Trump is committed to remaking Asian trading relationships, including a =ilateral deal with Japan (despite resistance from the Japanese.)

Another country to watch for trade negotiations (or re-negotiat=ons): South Korea.

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3. Shutdown watch

The government runs out of money on Saturday and, with that in mind, the=most important line on any of the Sunday shows today came from White House=chief of staff Reince Priebus.

Chuck Todd, host of NBC's "Meet the =ress," asked Priebus whether the administration would veto a government fu=ding bill if there's not money in it to fund Trump's border wall. Priebus'=response here was telling:

"It will be enough in the negot=ation for us to move forward with either the construction or the planning,=or enough for us to move forward through the end of September to get going=on the border wall and border security in regard to border patrol..."
Between the lines: By refusing to demand fundin= for the bricks-and-mortar "wall," Reince tipped his hand. Trump can't sto=ach a shutdown on his watch, so he'll likely take a "win" on some form of =unding for border security, even if it's not specifically for building the=wall.

What we expect will happen: Congress will pas= a short-term funding bill early in the week to buy themselves another fiv= or seven days' negotiating time. We think there's enough common ground fo= this to get done in the end, with perhaps a fairly substantial appropriat=ons bill in the end.

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4. Trump's third way on Iran

When candidate Donald Trump addressed the American Israel Public Affairs Commit=ee (AIPAC) last March, he made the crowd go wild when he declared: "My=number-one priority is to dismantle the disastrous deal with Iran."

=ell ... not so much. On Tuesday the Trump administration grudgingly certif=ed that Iran was living up to its end of the 2015 nuclear deal. The Presid=nt's subsequent comment that Iran is violating the "spirit" of the nuclear=deal doesn't mean he's going to tear the deal up — he won't. But our sources say it's foolish to dismiss that sentence as pure bluste=.

Around the corner: The way you shou=d read Trump's comment is that the President wants to "un-do" the Obama po=icy that the U.S. couldn't push back on Iran at all because of the deal. T=e way the administration sees it is they're getting rid of an Obama-era Ir=n policy that amounted to accommodation of Tehran at every turn.

=p>Keep an eye out for these policy options (that would amount to a third way on Iran — not withdrawing from=the deal, but not accommodating Iran either):

More san=tions to deal with human rights abusers and Iran's involvement in Syria.
Interdiction of Iranian weapons shipments to Yemen.

Disconti=uation of efforts, pu=sued by former Secretary of State John Kerry, that could be perceived =s helping Iran derive economic benefits from the deal.

Wildcard: This report by Fox News =orrespondent James Rosen on Bret Baier's "Special Report" caught the atten=ion of foreign policy and national security officials both inside the Whit= House and on Capitol Hill. An Iranian opposition group — which is=viewed with deep suspicion but has been proven correct in the past �=94 has released images it says proves Iran is secretly working on weaponiz=tion in violation of the deal. Watch for Republican members of Congress to=ask CIA Director Pompeo to investigate these new claims.

5. 1 never-changing thing: don't mess with the fam

I'm reading Chris Whipple's excellent new book "Gatekeepers" — "how White House chiefs of staff define every presidency."<=p>
President Reagan's second chief of staff Don Regan had lots of proble=s, but what ultimately killed him was getting on the wrong side of Nancy:<=p>

"While Reagan was in the hospital, Regan indulged his imperial i=stincts. He was not above planting leaks in the press to let the world kno= who was in charge...the New York Times reported...'With each pas=ing day, Regan's grip on the machinery of the administration grows firmer.=...The self-serving quotes displeased Nancy. But even wor=e was another line: 'Nancy Reagan, the president's wife, has come to rely =ncreasingly on Mr. Regan'."

The nail in Regan's coffin: during a heated phone call, he hung up on Nancy. Re=gan's first, much more successful, chief of staff James Baker recalls, sti=l incredulous, 30 years later. "That's not just a firing offense. That may=be a hanging offense!"

Lesson for today's Wes= Wingers: don't make Jared or Ivanka mad. And don't get too much =ositive press! The most damaging hit on Steve Bannon was the Time=cover. And Gary Cohn's worst nightmare would be a newspaper POTUS reads br=nding him "the brain behind President Trump." That's a Trumpian death sent=nce.

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