Subject: POLITICO's Morning Score: GOP outside groups unchallenged in Montana as early special election voting begins — South Carolina's forgotten special — DCCC 2016 autopsy released under tight guard to members
From: "Morning Score" <[email-masked]>
To: <[email-masked]>
Date: Fri, 28 Apr 2017 08:08:13 -0600
List-Id: <1376319_6564182.xt.local>

By Kevin Robillard and Elena Schneider | 04/28/2017 10:00 AM EDT

With Scott Bland, Daniel Strauss and Bianca Padr&oacute; Ocasio

The following newsletter is an abridged version of Campaign Pro's Morning Score. For an earlier morning read on exponentially more races - and for a more comprehensive aggregation of the day's most important campaign news - sign up for Campaign Pro today. (http://www.politicopro.com/proinfo)

DEMOCRATS SKEPTICAL ON MONTANA - "GOP groups have Montana special to themselves on eve of early voting," by Campaign Pro's Elena Schneider: "As early voting kicks off in Montana this week, national Democrats are holding back from heavy investments in the state's special House election, believing Democratic candidate Rob Quist still has a steep hill to climb to win a state that voted heavily for President Donald Trump just months ago. ... [The special] is being overshadowed by the special election in Georgia, where Democrats are riding not just grassroots enthusiasm - which has helped Quist raise over $2.5 million so far - but also critical demographic and political shifts that are not
 present in Montana. ... That doesn't mean Democrats have given up completely on the race, or that Republicans are without concerns. Republican outside groups hoping to avoid surprises are spending $2 million on TV ads savaging Quist, while Donald Trump Jr. recently stumped with Gianforte. ... But the House Democratic committee, which recently went on the air in Georgia, is not airing TV ads pushing back against the barrage of spots from the NRCC and Congressional Leadership Fund." Full story. 

- NRCC out with a new TV ad in Montana: The NRCC's independent expenditure released a new TV ad Thursday, attacking Democrat Rob Quist for "support[ing] Nancy Pelosi's agenda on guns" and her "liberal spending spree." It also hits Quist for his "16-year debt trail." The NRCC is spending more than $1 million on TV ads through Election Day. Watch the ad here. 

THE HIDDEN SPECIAL - South Carolina Democrats are calling for the DCCC to get involved in the special election to replace Mick Mulvaney: "Compared to special elections in Georgia, Montana and even ruby-red Kansas that have sparked varying levels of concern among the GOP, the race to replace OMB Director Mick Mulvaney in Congress in a conservative stretch of South Carolina has drawn almost no outside money or attention. Archie Parnell, a former Goldman Sachs executive and the likely Democratic candidate, hasn't generated the excitement or online money behind Jon Ossoff in Georgia or even folk singer Rob Quist in Montana. 'It's a district national Democrats would be crazy not to take a look
 at,' said Jaime Harrison, the outgoing state Democratic Party chair, arguing midterm-like turnout among African-Americans (more than one-quarter of the district's population) would be enough to make it competitive. ... Republicans take a dismissive view of Parnell's chances. 'Zero,' outgoing South Carolina GOP Chair Matt Moore said. 'I will eat my shoes if a Democrat wins South Carolina's 5th District.'" Full story. 

- "SC-5: Top Democrat Wanted To Run As 'Republican,'" by FITSNews: "It's not surprising to learn that Parnell contacted the South Carolina Republican Party in early 2017 seeking information on participating in the GOP special primary election for the state's fifth congressional district. ... Parnell, a Sumter, S.C., tax attorney who works for Goldman Sachs, called the party on January 3 and requested to speak with SCGOP chairman Matt Moore. Moore confirmed the conversation this week." Full story. 

LOCK AND KEY - "House Democrats bury 2016 autopsy," by POLITICO's Heather Caygle and John Bresnahan: "House Democrats are going to extreme lengths to conceal a report on the party's problems. After nearly five months, Sean Patrick Maloney (D-N.Y.) will present his investigative report to lawmakers during a members-only gathering at the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee headquarters Thursday night. But members are not allowed to have copies of the report and can only view it under the watchful eyes of DCCC staff. Some Democratic lawmakers and staffers think the cloak-and-dagger secrecy is overblown and actually makes the findings look worse than they are. But the DCCC is sticking
 by its strategy." Full story.

ON THE HILL - Health care vote won't come this week, via POLITICO's Kyle Cheney, Rachael Bade and John Bresnahan: "Speaker Paul Ryan and his top lieutenants decided during a late-night huddle in the Capitol that they still do not have the votes to pass the stalled health-care legislation. At least 15 House Republicans remain solidly opposed to the bill, with another 20 leaning no or still undecided, according to GOP lawmakers and aides." Full story.

- "Pre-existing conditions drive moderates' concern over repeal bill," by POLITICO's Jennifer Haberkorn: "House Republican leaders hoped that the House Freedom Caucus's endorsement of the latest Obamacare repeal bill would light a fire under enough moderates to ... pass the measure. Instead, the holdouts are digging in, saying that the latest changes only moved the bill to the right and could put more Americans at risk of losing their health insurance. ... Rep. Ryan Costello (R-Pa.) said the latest changes to the bill didn't bring him to a yes. 'Protections for those with pre-existing conditions without contingency and affordable access to coverage for every American remain my priorities
 for advancing healthcare reform, and this bill does not satisfy those benchmarks for me,' he said in a statement." Full story. 

FIRST IN SCORE - NRSC hits Democratic senators ahead of 100 day mark: The National Republican Senatorial Commitee is putting money behind a new digital spot attacking Democratic Senators for "100 days of no" and obstruction of President Donald Trump. The ad will run in the ten states where Democrats are up for reelection in 2018 that Trump won last November. Watch the ad here. 

Days until the 2017 election: 205.

Days until the 2018 election: 569.

Thanks for joining us. You can email tips to the Campaign Pro team at [email-masked], [email-masked], [email-masked] and [email-masked].

You can also follow us on Twitter: @politicoscott, @ec_schneider, @politicokevin and @danielstrauss4. 

THAT OTHER SPECIAL - NRCC ad backs Handel, continues attacks on Ossoff: The NRCC's latest independent expenditure TV ad hits Democrat Jon Ossoff for "fight[ing]" for "Democrat party bosses," while also promoting Republican Karen Handel, ending with a positive section on the former Georgia secretary of state - making use of some of that b-roll we highlighted in Thursday's Score. Full story.

- U.S. Chamber preparing Georgia TV ads: Full story.

PROCEED WITH CAUTION - NRSC warns GOP firms against helping Strange challengers in Alabama, by Campaign Pro's Daniel Strauss: "The NRSC has been discouraging consulting firms from working with Republicans running or weighing a challenge to appointed Sen. Luther Strange in the Alabama special election set for this summer. In recent days, the GOP Senate committee has warned at least two firms, Jamestown Associates and Strategic Perception Inc., against taking on clients who are running or considering running against Strange, according to half a dozen Republican operatives and officials in Washington and Alabama." Full story. 

2018 WATCH - "Lembo Kicks Off Exploratory Bid For Governor," by the Hartford Courant's Daniela Altimari: "State Comptroller Kevin Lembo announced Thursday morning that he is forming an exploratory committee for a run for governor in 2018. The Democrat from Guilford kicked off his run at Precision Combustion, a manufacturer in North Haven. ... He has repeatedly said he would not be a candidate for governor should Lt. Gov. Nancy Wyman seek the post. Wyman has yet to formally announce her plans." Full story. 

- "Collin Peterson Running for Re-Election Next Year," by Roll Call's Simone Pathe: "'Yeah, I'm running. I've got 700 grand in the bank,' Peterson said outside the House chamber Wednesday afternoon. The ranking Democrat on the Agriculture Committee, Peterson is one of the most conservative Democrats in the House, and he represents an agriculture-heavy 7th District that would likely flip to the Republicans if he ever called it quits." Full story. 

- "Republican Rep. Matt Dean joins crowded field in 2018 race for governor," by the St. Paul Pioneer Press' Bill Salisbury: "Republican state Rep. Matt Dean will announce Thursday that he will run for Minnesota governor next year, saying he has a track record of 'solving problems and making things work again.' ... Dean, 51, an architect and former House majority leader, comes to the campaign with the most political and government experience in the current Republican field. First elected to the House in 2004, he was picked as majority leader after he helped Republicans win control of the House in 2010." Full story. 

CARTOGRAPHY CORNER - "Ahead of 2018, trial likely looms in Texas political map battle," by the Texas Tribune's Jim Malewitz: "As the 2018 election cycle nears, it appears Texas and its legal foes are headed for a trial - yet again - over what the state's House and congressional boundaries will look like, and it will likely come this summer. "I think the trial is certain," said Jose Garza, an attorney for the Mexican American Legislative Caucus, a lead plaintiff in the years-long challenge of the state's political boundaries. "At the end of the day, we're going to get new political maps, and the court's going to draw them." His comments followed a lengthy and complicated hearing Thursday
 over the fate of the state's 2013 House and congressional maps - a high-profile status conference that followed a pair of federal rulings that Texas lawmakers intentionally discriminated against minority voters in initially drawing each map in 2011." Full story.

- "Former Md. governor Martin O'Malley deposed in redistricting lawsuit," by the Washington Post's Josh Hicks: "Former Maryland governor Martin O'Malley (D) was deposed Wednesday by attorneys in a lawsuit challenging the constitutionality of the state's 2011 redistricting process, which O'Malley oversaw. The lawyers deposed Senate President Thomas V. Mike Miller Jr. (D-Calvert) on Monday and House Speaker Michael E. Busch (D-Anne Arundel) last week. ... They and O'Malley tried unsuccessfully to avoid turning over records and testifying in the lawsuit, citing legislative and executive privilege. ... The plaintiffs in the lawsuit, Benisek v. Lamone, allege that state officials redrew
 Maryland's congressional districts based on party registration and voting histories, violating the First Amendment by making it difficult for people of a particular political persuasion to elect their preferred representative." Full story.

COMING SOON - Steve Wynn, Scott Walker holding fundraiser for Nevada's Laxalt: Full story. 

VISIBLE INVISIBLE PRIMARY - Two Virginia Democratic congressmen back Wexton in VA-10: "Virginia Democratic Reps. Gerry Connolly and Donald McEachin have both backed state Sen. Jennifer Wexton to take on GOP Rep. Barbara Comstock in the state's 10th District - even as Virginia First Lady Dorothy McAuliffe publicly ponders a bid." Full story.

CODA - QUOTE OF THE DAY: "I'm going to cut him slack. I don't know if caved is the right term. Maybe it is." - Democratic Sen. Jon Tester, on President Donald Trump agreeing not to tie funding for his border wall to keeping the government open past this week, in POLITICO. ("He's evolving," said a Republican senator.)

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