Subject: POLITICO's Morning Score: Ros-Lehtinen retirement sets stage for big 2018 battleground — Biden tells Democrats to rediscover their soul — GOP faces make-or-break on Obamacare repeal
From: "Morning Score" <[email-masked]>
To: <[email-masked]>
Date: Mon, 01 May 2017 08:06:58 -0600
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By Elena Schneider | 05/01/2017 10:00 AM EDT

With help from Scott Bland and Kevin Robillard 

The following newsletter is an abridged version of Campaign Pro's Morning Score. For an earlier morning read on exponentially more races - and for a more comprehensive aggregation of the day's most important campaign news - sign up for Campaign Pro today. (http://www.politicopro.com/proinfo)

BATTLEGROUND RETIREMENT - "Florida's Ros-Lehtinen to retire from Congress," by POLITICO Florida's Marc Caputo: "Rep. Ileana Ros-Lehtinen, Florida's longest-serving member of Congress and political godmother to Miami Republicans, is quitting Congress after nearly four decades in office, providing Democrats a prime opportunity to pick up a seat ... Ros-Lehtinen denied that her retirement had anything to do with her differences with President Donald Trump. ... No Republican-held House district gave Trump a lower share of the vote in 2016 than Ros-Lehtinen's [FL-27]. Trump got just 39 percent of the vote in the district, while Hillary Clinton got more than 58 percent - more than 5 points better
 than Barack Obama in 2012, even as Florida shifted into the Republican column in 2016."

- "Ros-Lehtinen, an icon in Miami, beat challenger Scott Fuhrman by 10 percentage points last year. It was her closest race in decades. Fuhrman is running for the Miami-area seat again, but Ros-Lehtinen said she was sure she'd win again. Miami Beach Commissioner Kristen Rosen Gonzalez and Michael Hepburn, both Democrats, also want the seat." Full story.

- The "crossover" districts on the ideological edges of Congress could continue to recede in 2018. While Democrats get to go after Trump's weakest GOP-held district as an open seat in Florida, Republicans will also get to attack Hillary Clinton's second-weakest Democratic-held district as an open seat in MN-01, where Rep. Tim Walz is running for governor. (In Clinton's weakest Dem district, MN-07, Rep. Collin Peterson recently announced he's running for reelection.)

- "Miami GOP seeks unicorn candidate to save Dem-trending Ros-Lehtinen seat," by POLITICO Florida's Marc Caputo: "Ros-Lehtinen's surprise announcement that she's quitting Congress has left the GOP with a needle-in-the-haystack problem: finding a socially moderate Republican in a party where they're in short supply. ... In the hours after Ros-Lehtinen announced her retirement Sunday, the list of potential candidates grew, especially among energized Democrats. On the Republican side, few generated buzz among GOP insiders like former Miami-Dade school board member Raquel Regalado, a social moderate like the retiring congresswoman. She's also the well-known daughter of Miami Mayor Tom&aacute;s
 Regalado ... Raquel Regalado, who wouldn't say whether she voted for Trump, said she's strongly considering a bid for Ros-Lehtinen's seat after getting deluged with calls. A self-proclaimed moderate who supports comprehensive immigration reform and abortion rights, she said she wants to know more about the National Republican Congressional Committee thinks. 'Will the Republican Party at a national level stand behind a moderate? That's the question," Regalado asked. "Will we continue to move to the right? Or is this an opportunity for the Republican Party at a national level to consider moderates as an option?'" Full story. 

FEELINGS TALK - "Biden to Democrats: Rediscover what you are," by POLITICO's Edward-Isaac Dovere in Manchester, N.H.: "Yes, Joe Biden said, the Democratic Party is in crisis. And so is America. But it's not too late. Returning repeatedly here to the combined 172,000-vote margin in the three states that decided last year's presidential election, the former vice president said Democrats need to face how deep the problem is - not a fluke, not just about Hillary Clinton's performance, not just about a campaign by Donald Trump that clearly disgusted him. 'The cadre of people who were all ours for so long ... they doubted whether we still remembered,' the former vice president said, in his first
 major political speech since the inauguration. 'I'm absolutely positive they want to be with us, but we have to prove again that we understand that hopelessness. ... We have to show them, we have to be the source of their hope.'" Full story. 

ON THE HILL - "GOP faces make-or-break moment on Obamacare repeal," by POLITICO's Rachael Bade, John Bresnahan and Kyle Cheney: "House Republican leaders and White House officials are increasingly confident about passing their long-stalled Obamacare replacement bill: More lawmakers than ever are committed to voting 'yes,' they say, and GOP insiders insist they're within striking distance of a majority. But the window of opportunity for Speaker Paul Ryan and his leadership team is closing fast. The House is scheduled to leave town for a one-week recess on Thursday, and some senior Republicans worry that failing to get it done by then would fritter away critical momentum. Skittish Republicans
 would return home to face a barrage of pressure from Democrats and progressive outside groups." Full story.

Days until the 2017 election: 198.

Days until the 2018 election: 554.

Thanks for joining us. You can email tips to the Campaign Pro team at [email-masked], [email-masked], [email-masked] and [email-masked].

You can also follow us on Twitter: @politicoscott, @ec_schneider, @politicokevin and @danielstrauss4. 

THE GLOBAL POLITICO PODCAST: TRUMP VS. EUROPE: In a new interview for Susan Glasser's Global POLITICO podcast, former Swedish Prime Minister Carl Bildt explains why Trump is more unpopular than even George W. Bush in Europe and the prospects for a new cold war with Vladimir Putin. Listen and subscribe iTunes | Soundcloud | Stitcher 

WEEKEND DEBATES - "Investments in Russia become focus in congressional race," via The Associated Press: "The leading candidates for Montana's only congressional seat tangled Saturday over money, including taxes, campaign financing and $240,000 in investments by the Republican candidate that financial disclosures link to index funds with substantial holdings in Russian firms that are under sanctions by the U.S. government. The investments gave Democrat Rob Quist fresh ammunition to lob at Greg Gianforte during their only televised debate before the May 25 special congressional election. Libertarian Mark Wicks also took part in the debate." Full story.

- "Democratic candidates for governor debate for first time," by The Associated Press' Matthew Barakat: "Lt. Gov. Ralph Northam highlighted his ability to appeal to Republicans, and former congressman Tom Perriello touted his appeal to disillusioned voters. ... The debate was friendly, but Northam criticized Perriello's support from the National Rifle Association during his time in Congress, while Perriello chided Northam for accepting support from the state's powerful utility, Dominion Resources." Full story. 

EARLY POLLING DATA - Hawley leads Wagner in Remington robopoll of Missouri primary: Attorney General Josh Hawley leads Rep. Ann Wagner in a way-too-early poll of likely GOP primary voters for Missouri's Senate race. The Remington Research IVR poll found Hawley with 37 percent of the vote to Wagner's 16 percent in a head-to-head matchup. Add former state Rep. David Steelman and attorney David Wasinger to the mix, and Hawley earns 30 percent, Wagner gets 14 percent, with Steelman earning 7 percent and Wasinger just 2 percent. Remington conducted the poll of 915 likely voters for Missouri Scout on April 28 and 29. The margin of error is plus or minus 3.1 percentage points. Full results here. 

TRIAL AND ERROR - "Key figure in Menendez corruption case convicted of fraud," by POLITICO's John Bresnahan and Josh Gerstein: "Dr. Salomon Melgen, a key figure in the bribery and corruption case against Democratic Sen. Bob Menendez, was convicted on Friday of improperly billing the federal government for more than $100 million in medical insurance payments. ... Menendez and Melgen were indicted in a separate case in federal court in Newark in April 2015 over allegations that the New Jersey Democrat used his office to help Melgen in exchange for hundreds of thousands of dollars in gifts from the Florida doctor, a longtime friend and campaign donor. A joint trial for Menendez and Melgen on
 the corruption charges is set to open in New Jersey in August. The New Jersey Democrat has denied any wrongdoing. The slew of convictions means the 62-year-old Melgen now faces the possibility of what could effectively be a life sentence in the Florida case. A federal prosecutor said Friday that sentencing guidelines call for the doctor to receive 15 to 20 years behind bars. That prospect seems certain to intensify pressure on him to offer testimony against Menendez in the New Jersey case." Full story.

WHAT THE DSCC IS TALKING ABOUT - The Democratic Senate group is watching to see which potential GOP Senate contenders vote for an amendment to the GOP health care plan that would allow states to opt out of covering essential health benefits. Almost all of them have said an Obamacare replacement should protect people with pre-existing conditions. Rep. Fred Upton, who could challenge Michigan Sen. Debbie Stabenow, has called pre-existing condition coverage "essential." (He's undecided on the amendment.) Reps. Luke Messer and Todd Rokita in Indiana and Ann Wagner in Missouri are all thought to be supportive of the amendment, and all have promised to protect people with them. "Folks with
 pre-existing conditions will continue to be insured under the law," Messer told Howey Politics Indiana in March. "It's not right for someone not to be able to get insurance because they are sick." 

SHADOW PRIMARY - "Maryland Democrats begin to line up for competitive congressional district - just in case," by The Baltimore Sun's John Fritze: "Democratic Rep. John Delaney's flirtation with next year's governor's race has inspired an early shadow primary in the state's westernmost congressional district, where a half dozen prominent Democrats are expressing an interest in his seat. ... Del. Aruna Miller of Darnestown is the second Democrat to announce an interest in running for the seat. ... Frick, a 42-year-old attorney from Bethesda, has also said he will run for the seat if Delaney challenges Republican Gov. Larry Hogan next year." Full story.

ENTERING THE ARENA - "Casey Cagle launches his campaign for Georgia governor," via The Atlanta Journal Constitution: "Lt. Gov. Casey Cagle launched his campaign for governor with a pledge to add 500,000 jobs in his first four years in office, cut $100 million in taxes in his opening months and a promise to 'declare war on high school dropout rates in Georgia.'" Full story.

ADMINISTRATION SPEED READ - "Democrats give up hope on striking a deal with Trump," by POLITICO's Edward-Isaac Dovere: "Democrats couldn't be less interested in the whole Jared Kushner vs. Steve Bannon drama, and they have given up on the idea that President Donald Trump's son-in-law will push him to work across the aisle on tax reform or anything else. The crisis of confidence they felt after Trump's shocking win has faded and his record-low poll numbers have killed any incentive in their minds to suck it up and compromise with him. ... As far as Democrats are concerned, the idea of a moderate, post-partisan staff rising to guide Trump into building bridges with them - even for the sake of
 building actual bridges as part of infrastructure investments Trump talks about and they agree are needed - has now entered the realm of complete fantasy." Full story.

CODA - QUOTE OF THE DAY: "I could not possibly be more thrilled than to be more than 100 miles away from Washington's swamp, spending my evening with all of you with a much, much larger crowd and much, much better people." - President Donald Trump, at his Saturday rally in Pennsylvania, via POLITICO.

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