Subject: POLITICO's Morning Score: DCCC starting TV ads, mail in MT-AL special — Congressional Leadership Fund investing more in MT-AL, too — Primary night: Pope, Norman go to SC-05 runoff as Parnell wins Dem primary
From: "Morning Score" <[email-masked]>
To: <[email-masked]>
Date: Wed, 03 May 2017 08:05:57 -0600
List-Id: <1376319_6576075.xt.local>

By Elena Schneider | 05/03/2017 10:00 AM EDT

With Bianca Padr&oacute; Ocasio, Daniel Strauss, Scott Bland, Kevin Robillard

The following newsletter is an abridged version of Campaign Pro's Morning Score. For an earlier morning read on exponentially more races - and for a more comprehensive aggregation of the day's most important campaign news - sign up for Campaign Pro today. (http://www.politicopro.com/proinfo)

NEW TODAY - DCCC putting $400,000 into TV, mail in MT-AL special: The DCCC is spending $400,000 on TV ads and a "vote by mail chase program" in Montana's special election to boost Democrat Rob Quist - bringing the committee's total investment into the state to $600,000, per a statement from the group. (The committee previously transferred nearly $200,000 to the Montana Democratic Party.) Mail ballots went out to voters on Monday, and the DCCC will use phone calls and postcards to encourage voter to return them before May 25. "This significant investment in television and ground game will bolster Quist's already strong, Montana-focused campaign," the DCCC's communications director Meredith
 Kelly said in a statement.

- FIRST IN SCORE - CLF adds another $500,000 in Montana: The Congressional Leadership Fund is adding another half a million dollars to its investment in the Montana House special, too, bringing its total expenditure in the race to $2 million. The additional money will go toward a mail program and ground game effort. CLF has 50 people knocking on doors in the state, with a goal of reaching 75,000 households by Election Day on May 25. 

- CLF is also out with a new TV ad attacking Quist on his tax problems. "Montanans are responsible. We work hard, pay our taxes, but not Rob Quist. Quist has faced multiple warrants for not paying his taxes [and] was sued for defaulting on a loan, ordered to pay $10,000," the ad's narrator says. "Quist even stiffed hard-working Montanans. He faced a lien for not paying a contractor - and was sued for breach of contract, deceit and fraud. How can we trust Quist with our tax dollars?" Watch the ad here. 

- "Montana Dem in US House bid underreports income," by the Associated Press' Bobby Caina Calvan: "The Democratic candidate for Montana's sole U.S. House seat, a cowboy poet and musician running for public office for the first time, underreported $57,000 in income when he filed federally required financial disclosure statements two months ago." Full story.

SC-05 SPECIAL ELECTION RESULTS - Pope, Norman head to GOP runoff as Parnell advances on Democratic side, via Campaign Pro's Kevin Robillard: "The Republican primary for Mick Mulvaney's old House seat will go another two weeks after the candidates forced a special-election runoff Tuesday night, giving Democrat Archie Parnell a head start in his long-shot bid to make a conservative stretch of South Carolina competitive. Parnell, a former Goldman Sachs tax expert, cruised through the Democratic primary with about three-quarters of the vote while state Rep. Tommy Pope and former state legislator Ralph Norman advanced to a runoff on the GOP side, since no one got a majority of the vote. Pope had
 31 percent and Norman 30 percent in the crowded field when the Associated Press called the runoff Tuesday night. Pope and Norman's runoff will be in two weeks, on May 16. The general election is June 20, the same day as a closely-watched special election to replace Health and Human Services Secretary Tom Price in his old Georgia district." Full story.

CROSSING OVER - "Analysis: Ossoff attracting key share of GOP votes in Georgia special," by Campaign Pro's Scott Bland: "Georgia Democrat Jon Ossoff has drawn notice for the legions of Democrats volunteering, donating and voting at unusually high rates to support his campaign. But Ossoff has also quietly attracted a small but potentially pivotal share of Republican support in his special election race, according to a new analysis of the April 18 primary - one major reason why the two-month runoff for Tom Price's old district is expected to be so close and hard-fought. The ... most conservative estimates" from Optimus Consulting, a GOP data-analytics firm that conducted a voter-file analysis
 of the special primary, "say Ossoff captured at least 8 to 10 percent of the GOP's votes in the primary, a critical slice given that Republicans comprised only a narrow majority of the electorate. While Ossoff's campaign and motivated Democrats helped drive unusually high levels of voting in the primary, it's clear that more than turnout propelled Ossoff's campaign into his one-on-one runoff match-up with Republican Karen Handel in a longtime GOP district."

- "... Democrats appear focused on maintaining their share of crossover voters early in the runoff. ... While opposition to President Donald Trump has played a significant role animating Ossoff's donors and volunteers and Democratic partisans in his district, fiscal conservatism has been the main theme of Ossoff's recent district-wide TV advertising ... One of Ossoff's early TV ads featured Ossoff pledging to 'hold President Trump accountable,' but it stopped airing on broadcast TV in late March - soon after the DCCC convened focus groups in the district to help Democrats refine their special-election message. ... Republicans, too, appear to be focused directly on those conservative-leaning
 voters in the middle of Georgia's 6th District. Since March, a steady drumbeat of TV ads from the NRCC, Congressional Leadership Fund and the U.S. Chamber of Commerce have linked Ossoff to House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi and others from the Democratic Party's left wing." Full story. 

- DCCC up to just under $1 million post-primary in GA-06: The DCCC has spent about $1 million on TV ads in the district over the last two weeks since the all-party primary. 

- DCCC launches digital ads that targets GA-06 Republicans: The DCCC will use a digital ad campaign on Facebook and Instagram to target Republican voters in the district with a quiz that asks: "Ouch!! Who said THAT about Karen Handel?" The ads will hit on the same themes that The Club for Growth and Handel's former opponents used to go after her during the primary. Check out the microsite here. 

Days until the 2017 election: 188.

Days until the 2018 election: 552.

Have you noticed our countdown bouncing around? Oh, good. We just wanted to make sure you were paying attention. Campaign Pro apologizes for accidentally playing with your emotions. We've corrected it. Anyway, thanks for joining us. You can email tips to the Campaign Pro team at [email-masked], [email-masked], [email-masked] and [email-masked].

You can also follow us on Twitter: @politicoscott, @ec_schneider, @politicokevin and @danielstrauss4. 

OFF MESSAGE PODCAST: Governor John Kasich may have lost the race for the White House but he's not done fighting. In the latest episode of Off Message, Kasich sits down with Isaac Dovere to discuss his disappointment with the current political climate post first 100 days, "Any politician who is going to be in the dividing business, I'm not helping." Kasich also discusses his admiration for Pope Francis and his plans for the future. Listen and subscribe iTunes | Panoply | Stitcher

ON THE HILL - "The Republicans who will decide the fate of Obamacare," by POLITICO's Rachael Bade and Kyle Cheney: "Paul Ryan has a major math problem. The House speaker and his leadership team can lose only 22 Republicans and still pass their Obamacare repeal bill. But roughly 20 GOP members are on record in opposition, and at least another two dozen are undecided. The situation has only gotten uglier this week, as two leadership-aligned congressmen, Fred Upton (R-Mich.) and Billy Long (R-Mo.), came out against the plan. Leaders have won over all but a few members of the House Freedom Caucus and at least one big-name moderate who opposed the earlier Republican proposal. But the path to 216
 votes is exceedingly thin." Glimpse of who they profile: The trendsetters, the undecideds, the quiet leadership supporters, the "hell no" moderates and the conservative holdouts. Full story.

 - "Outlook for Obamacare repeal turns bleak," by POLITICO's Rachael Bade, Kyle Cheney and John Bresnahan: "A sense of gloom settled over House Republicans on Tuesday as support for their Obamacare repeal plan seemed to erode even further and members began reckoning with the unthinkable: They may never be able to repeal Obamacare." Full story.

NEW THIS MORNING - End Citizens United endorses Democratic senators: End Citizens United announced endorsements for three Democratic senators on Wednesday - Pennsylvania Sen. Bob Casey, North Dakota Sen. Heidi Heitkamp and Rhode Island Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse, per a statement from the group. 

INCUMBENT PROTECTION - NRCC adds ten members to Patriot Program: The NRCC announced Tuesday it was adding ten more GOP members to its incumbent protection program, per a statement from the group. The members include: Rep. Martha McSally (AZ-02), Rep. Jeff Denham (CA-10), Rep. Mike Coffman (CO-06), Rep. Carlos Curbelo (FL-26), Rep. Rod Blum (IA-01), Rep. David Young (IA-03), Rep. Bruce Poliquin (ME-02), Rep. Erik Paulsen (MN-03), Rep. Don Bacon (NE-02) and Rep. John Katko (NY-24). 

2018 WATCH - Laxalt to raise money with the Rickettses in D.C.: Major Republican lawmakers and donors are scheduled to host a fundraiser for Nevada Attorney General (and likely 2018 gubernatorial candidate) Adam Laxalt on May 17, according to an invitation for the event obtained by Score. Co-chairs listed for the event are: Robbie Aiken, Brian Baker, former Sen. Norm Coleman, Ann Corkery, former Rep. Chris Cox, former Assistant Attorney General Viet Dinh, Lee Carosi Dunn, former RNC chair Frank Fahrenkopf, Boyden Gray, former Rep. Joe Heck, Leonard Leo, Jim Nicholson, Todd Ricketts, former Homeland Security Secretary Tom Ridge, and Charlie Spies. The fundraiser will be held at the
 Washington Ricketts residence. (ICYMI: Laxalt also has a big fundraiser with Steve Wynn and Govs. Scott Walker and Doug Ducey on tap this month.)

- Pritzker launches early TV ads in Illinois governor race, via the Chicago Tribune's Rick Pearson: "Chicago businessman J.B. Pritzker on Tuesday unveiled a 60-second TV ad to introduce himself, marking the first broadcast commercial of the primary campaign among the Democrats vying to unseat [GOP Gov. Bruce] Rauner. ... 'We all know Illinois has big challenges. And under Gov. Rauner, things have only gotten worse. I'm J.B. Pritzker, and I've been thinking big since the very beginning,' Pritzker says at the beginning of the spot, which also features baby and childhood pictures in an apparent self-deprecating reference to his size." Full story.

- "Mango To Announce Bid for Governor," by PoliticsPA: "Allegheny County businessman Paul Mango is making it official, he will be running for Governor in 2018. Mango will make his announcement the day after the primary. Mango will make the announcement at the Soldiers & Sailors Memorial Hall & Museum in Pittsburgh on May 17." Full story. 

- "Abrams files paperwork to run for governor," by Atlanta Journal Constitution: "House Minority Leader Stacey Abrams filed paperwork Tuesday to run for governor, marking the first step toward an expected bid for the state's highest office. Abrams would become the highest-profile Democrat in the race to succeed Gov. Nathan Deal and her campaign would seek to capitalize on the same angst over Donald Trump that is propelling Jon Ossoff in Georgia's 6th District race." Full story.

2020 WATCH - "Warren polishes national profile ahead of 2020," by POLITICO's Gabriel Debenedetti: "When Donald Trump suggested to a National Rifle Association crowd in Atlanta on Friday that he might face a challenge from Elizabeth Warren in three years, he voiced a thought shared by political pros on both sides. Between her coast-to-coast book tour, a series of high-profile speeches, and greater behind-the-scenes involvement in setting the party's direction in Washington, the Massachusetts progressive the president derides as 'Pocahontas' is providing plenty of evidence that she may be poised to go national after her Senate reelection campaign in 2018." Full story. 

LITERAL AIR WAR - "CNN: We didn't run Trump ad because of 'fake news' graphic," via POLITICO's Hadas Gold: "CNN declined to air an ad by President Donald Trump's campaign because it included a graphic that called the mainstream media 'fake news,' the network said today. Trump's campaign committee had blasted CNN, saying the network refused to run an ad about the first 100 days of the Trump administration." Full story.

- Northam goes after Trump in new ad, expands ad buy to D.C. market: "Democratic Lt. Gov. Ralph Northam's Virginia gubernatorial campaign has released two new ads where he promises to take on President Donald Trump - and will begin airing those ads in the pricey D.C. market, which includes voter-rich Northern Virginia. Northam had already begun airing ads in Richmond and Norfolk, and is also adding Roanoke and Charlottesville as part of this buy, according to his campaign." Full story.

CODA - QUOTE OF THE DAY: "Just the way I like it. All they do for one year is beg for money." - Democrat John Morgan emailed The Orlando Sentinel, explaining why he wasn't feeling the pressure about joining the crowded Democratic primary for governor in Florida. 

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