Subject: Axios AM: Mike's Top 10 — 'A fog lifted' — A big name eyes 2020 — 1 book to understand Trump better — How Joe asked Mika
From: "Mike Allen" <[email-masked]>
To: <[email-masked]>
Date: Fri, 5 May 2017 06:43:09 -0400 (EDT)

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'A fog lifted' — A big name eyes 2020 — 1 book to unders=and Trump better — How Joe asked Mika

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Presented By JPMorgan Chase & Co.

Axios AM

By Mike Allen = ·May 05, 2017

Good Friday morning, and happy Cinco de Mayo!

1 big thing: "A fog lifted"

Lazaro Gamio / Axios

West Wing officials had been sweating the health-care=vote more than they let on. A White House source texted Axios' Jonathan Sw=n last night: "Needed that win. It was like a fog lifted."

<=trong>Many on Trump's staff knew that the first =ill was a dog, even though they had to sell it publicly. The way history i= being written internally is that Healthcare 1.0 was outsourced to Speaker=Ryan and HHS Secretary Tom Price, which is now seen at highest levels as a=major mistake. For 2.0, letting Vice President Pence play quiet broker wit= the House factions worked much better. (.)

Reality check: Yesterday's Rose Garden celebration (a rare gesture when a bill has pass=d one chamber, and is probably months from the president's desk) could bec=me Trump's "Mission Accomplished" if the bill bogs down in the Senate, or =n its return trip to the House.

Sound smart: Hous= leaders knew the fragile vote could unravel if they delayed. But now memb=rs have rushed into voting for a measure that has zero chance of becoming =aw in its current, controversial form. And they did it for Trump, who coul= wind up costing some of them their seats. (See item 4, below.)

What's next: The Senate will radically rewrite =he House bill, which will take at least a month, and maybe two. But Mitch =cConnell will allow the wheels to turn. A top aide says:="He wants to get it done."

"The senators who will decide =ealth care," by Axios' Caitlin Owens and David Nather: "Senat= Republicans will have to mediate the same tensions between conservatives =nd moderates as the House did when it passed its health care legislation."=See our tip sheet of the key players.

2. ​Disneyland v Trumpland?

Bob Iger in New York in March / Photo by Evan Agostini/Invision/AP

Disney CEO Bob Iger is being pelted with entreaties to =un for president in 2020, and is clearly intrigued by the idea, according =o industry sources. Iger has discussed the feasibility with friends but ha= made no formal moves.

"He's hearing quite a bit of: You should run — you'd be a great president," said one Hollywood=insider. "He's hearing that quite a bit from prominent fundraisers and Dem=cratic insiders."

A ringleader? Jeffrey Katze=berg, the former Disney Studios chairman, is said to be among those encour=ging a run. The Hollywood Reporter said in March that "Iger has told fri=nds he is considering their nudges." The rumor in Hollywood is that Katzenberg was a key leak of the story.

Why he m=ght do it: Trump's triumph has resulted in lots of businesspeople= from Oprah to Starbucks' Howard Schultz, being mentioned as possible cand=dates. Trump's win showed you don't need experience in government or a mil=tary record. So suddenly, lots of CEOs think they should be hired. Iger le= an iconic company on a huge growth spurt and has long toyed with the idea=of running.

Why he might not do it: Iger is commi=ted to his Disney job through July 2019, which wouldn't leave lots of time=to get a campaign going.

FYI: Willow Bay, his wif=, in March was named dean of the USC Annenberg School for Communication an= Journalism.

3. Trump 101

Trump in a tux, greeting Australian Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull last=night aboard the USS Intrepid, a decommissioned aircraft carrier docked in=the Hudson in New York / AP's Pablo Martinez Monsivais

Maggie Haberman, in an online chat with the N=Y. Times' new Australia bureau chief, Damien Cave:

"I w=uld strongly recommend people read Tom Wolfe's 'The Bonfire of th= Vanities' to better understand this president."

"The pres=dent speaks to Murdoch now almost every day."

"Sometimes after a tough story that [Trump] doesn't like=his aides will send angry emails. Sometimes they won't send anything at al= — they will just go complain publicly. And other times he will st=p talking for a while or his press aides will stop talking to you."
"There is no paper that captures Trump's im=gination more than The New York Times, except possibly The New York Post. =ut The Times to him represents Manhattan elites whose approval he has want=d for decades."

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4. More Rs now at risk in midterms

Trump celebrates passage with Speaker Ryan in the Rose Garden / AP's Eva= Vucci

A key Republican strategist tells me that the health-ca=e vote gives Dems a better (though still not good) chance of retaking the =ouse in 2018.

The reason: After the Senate vo=e, the House members "will have difficulty passing a repeal/replace bill, =ut will have voted for a bill that Dems can claim would be terrible for re=l people's health care and costs."

SIREN: The Cook Political Report today will shift its 2018 forecast for =0 House districts, all in favor of Ds!

=strong>David Wasserman (@redistrict), House =ditor of The Cook Political Report (@CookPolitical

in marginal districts just hi=ch their names to an unpopular piece of legislation, Democrats just receiv=d their best candidate recruitment tool yet."

Sentence of the day: "Democrats aren't so much recruiting can=idates as they are overwhelmed by a deluge of eager newcomers, including <=trong>doctors and veterans in traditionally red seats who have no=political record for the GOP to attack — almost a mirror image of =010."

"Of the 23 Republicans sitting in districts=won by Hillary Clinton in 2016, 14 voted for ... repeal and replace."
=/ul>
N.Y. Times Quote of the Day ... House Democrati= Leader Nancy Pelosi, warning moderate Rs: "You have every provision of th=s bill tattooed on your forehead. You will glow in the dark."

5. What it does

Quick points from a Wall Street Journal front-page anal=sis, "A Bet on More Winners Than Losers," by Step=anie Armour:

"The House Republ=can health bill is driven by one big idea: Insur=rs and markets, rather than government, should be empowered to find ways t= provide health insurance ... at affordable prices."

"=he bill ... creates a mechanism to free insurers to sell a wider =ariety of products — including less-comprehensive plans now barred=by law—and to price them in new ways, potentially raising premiums=for older and sicker Americans.

"The bill ends t=e requirement that individuals carry insurance or pay a penalty, substitut=ng a price increase for those who choose to go without coverage and buy it=later. It gives states more freedom to experiment with their Medicaid prog=ams.

"Republicans are betting that these changes =ill engender competition, draw healthier people into the insurance pool an= cut premium prices overall. Democrats ... said many part=cipants and providers in the health system will face higher costs and be w=rse off."

President Trump, appearing last nig=t with Australian Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull (via pool report by Tara=Palmeri): "So when you compare something to Obamacare, Obamacare i= no longer living. And we have something that's going to be, I th=nk, one of the best anywhere in the world."

6. 2016 polling post-mortem

The takeaway: WashPost's Dan Balz, on a report yesterday by the American Associa=ion for Public Opinion Research: "National surveys were generally accurate=in projecting the popular vote but state polls had 'a historically bad yea=' in forecasting the results in the electoral college."

"The AAPOR team also found flaws among those organizations that =roduce poll aggregates and projections of results and pointed to these pre=ictions as one reason so many people were surprised."

=a href="http://link.axios.com/click/9545403.31914/aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuYWFwb3=ub3JnL0VkdWNhdGlvbi1SZXNvdXJjZXMvUmVwb3J0cy9Bbi1FdmFsdWF0aW9uLW9mLTIwMTYtR=xlY3Rpb24tUG9sbHMtaW4tdGhlLVUtUy5hc3B4P3V0bV9zb3VyY2U9bmV3c2xldHRlciZ1dG1f=WVkaXVtPWVtYWlsJnV0bV9jYW1wYWlnbj1uZXdzbGV0dGVyX2F4aW9zYW0/5871993924c17c5=d77a8b8cB5b02248d" target="_blank">From the report: "State-=evel polls ... clearly under-estimated Trump's support in the Upper Midwes=. Polls showed Hillary Clinton leading, if narrowly, in Pennsylvania, Mich=gan and Wisconsin."

Reasons polls under-estimated s=pport for Trump:

"Real change in vote preference during the final week or so."

"Adjusting fo= over-representation of college graduates was critical, but many =olls did not do it."

"Some Trump voters who parti=ipated in pre-election polls did not reveal themselves as Trump voters unt=l after the election, and they outnumbered late-revealing Clinton voters."=/li>

7. Amazing stat du jour

N.Y. Times' "About New York" column by Jim Dwy=r, "Libraries Are Fining Children Who Can't Afford to Be Without Books": <=p>
"Just as adults discover
"A recent ta=ly found that library cards were blocked for more than 225,000 yo=ng people in the city. That means around one in five city children=with library cards cannot use them."

8. Covering tomorrow

Economist cover, "Regulating the internet giants: The wo=ld's most valuable resource is no longer oil, but data — The data =conomy demands a new approach to antitrust rules":

"Th=se titans — Alphabet (Google's parent company), Amazon, A=ple, Facebook and Microsoft — look unstoppable. They are the five =ost valuable listed firms in the world. Their profits are surging."
"Such dominance has prompted calls for the tech giants t= be broken up ... This newspaper has argued against such drastic action in=the past. Size alone is not a crime."

"But th=re is cause for concern. ... Old ways of thinking about competiti=n, devised in the era of oil, look outdated in what has come to be called =he 'data economy."

Prescription 1: "=A]ntitrust authorities ... now need to take into account the extent of fir=s' data assets when assessing the impact of deals."

<=trong>Prescription 2: "[L]oosen the grip that providers of online=services have over data and give more control to those who supply them."

9. Tracking power

Brad Parscale, the Trump campaign's Digital Director, i= joining the board at Data Trust, the conservative voter =ile and data management company that has an exclusive data-sharing agreeme=t with the RNC to provide foundational data for right-leaning campaigns an= groups. —Axios' Sara Fischer

Ca=l Woog, a Pentagon and National Security Council official under P=esident Obama, started this week at Facebook, where he'll=lead policy communications for WhatsApp, which has 1.2 billion users.
<=iv>

=img width="32" height="32" style="border: none" target="_blank" sr=="https://static.axios.com/img-email/email-circle.png" alt="Email this=Story">

10. 1 fun thing

Via TVNewser's Chris Ariens

The inside story of the engagement of "Morning" Joe Sca=borough and Mika Brzezinski, by Emily Jane Fox on Vanity Fair's "The Hive":<=p>
[S]omething shifted

"The trip to the Hotel du Cap in Antibes was ostensibly for Brzezinski's 50th birthday, which was on M=y 2 ... On the final evening of their trip, the couple ascended t=e hotel's palatial walkway from the pool and restaurant to its mansion ove=looking the Mediterranean. They were en route to the Bellini bar ... when =carborough paused and stopped Brzezinski. ...

Scarborough then plopped down on=one knee with an oval-shaped diamond ring set in platinum that he'd been h=ding in his suitcase for days and asked her to marry him.

I asked them if they=would consider [an offer by Trump to officiate, made back in January]. "Th= White House that I grew up in was an amazing place. If it weren't Trump, =t might be something to think about," Brzezinski said. "The mental picture=is just fascinating, but the reality is just . . . no. No, no, no, no, no.=

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