Subject: Iraq after the Liberation of Mosul: Turning a Fragile Unity into Stable Government
From: "Ken Wollack" <[email-masked]>
To: <[email-masked]>
Date: Thu, 18 May 2017 16:42:29 -0400

I thought you would be interested in the results of NDI’s latest nationwide
survey of the attitudes of Iraqi citizens. From February to March 2017, NDI
and Greenberg, Quinlan, Rosner Research conducted public opinion research
in Iraq, capturing citizens’ perspectives on security, the economy, and
other key political trends. The research includes a 2,000 person national
survey with oversamples in Mosul, and the provinces of Anbar, and
Salahaddin, including internally displaced persons (IDPs) and citizens who
lived under the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria (ISIS). This project was
funded by the National Endowment for Democracy and the U.K. Foreign and
Commonwealth Office.
The attached powerpoint presentation summarizes the findings of the poll
and provides contrast with data from previous NDI polls. Some notable
findings:

1. The research reveals a renewed sense of optimism brought on by the
military success against ISIS. Government leaders and institutions need to
deliver on citizens’ high expectations for the future. Recent gains in
liberating territories from ISIS have led many, particularly in the Sunni
dominated provinces in the west of Iraq, to believe that the fight against
ISIS has helped to unify the country. At the same time, this leads to high
expectations that ISIS will be completely ousted very soon and that life in
the west will improve dramatically.

2. For the first time since at least 2010, security has been supplanted by
economic concerns and corruption as the most important issues to citizens.
Increasing feelings of security have led to optimism about the future but
also to increased expectations of government.

3. Dramatic changes in perceptions about the Iraqi Army. In  a remarkable
shift from previous polls, the army is credited for the (still incomplete)
liberation from ISIS and  receives strong job approval, except in
Kurdistan. The Iraqi Army is seen as representing all Iraqis--a marked
departure from recent years when Sunnis and Kurds saw it as representing
only the Shia population. This strong support of the Army also drives a
perception that compulsory military service should be introduced, with
majority of respondents in the west feeling this way.

4. Views on Popular Mobilization Units (Hash’d Al Shaabi)  improve,
especially in the west. While thankful to the Shia dominated PMUs for their
role in routing ISIS, a plurality of Iraqis want PMUs dissolved and
integrated into the Army. While a large majority of Kurds want the PMUs to
completely disband, one in three respondents in the Shia South would prefer
PMUs to be given more power as a separate military force. There is mixed
support for PMUs’ involvement in politics.

5.  Iraq post-ISIS, winning the peace. A majority of Iraqis outside
Kurdistan want Ninewa province to remain as is, rather than being granted
greater autonomy. Similarly, a majority of Iraqis want the Army rather than
PMUs to protect liberated areas. This attitude is largely driven by the
west and Kurds fearing violence from PMUs after liberation. Fifty nine
percent of respondents in Mosul expressed preference for a military
governor as opposed to their current or former civilian governors.
Decentralization of political power to provinces has limited support,
especially in the west, as citizens would prefer a strong central
government to create stability.

6.  A majority of Iraqis view Prime Minister Abadi favorably. After a steep
drop to 33 percent in January 2016, Prime Minister Haider al Abadi bounces
back with a 59 percent favorability rating, driven by increases in the
South and Baghdad, but particularly by a 54 percent jump in popularity in
the Sunni west. Most Iraqis want to continue in the direction he is taking
the country -- with the exception of citizens in Kurdistan, but a majority
of Iraqis--except in the west--do not necessarily support Abadi for a
second term. Abadi is the third most popular leader in the country after
Shia leaders Hadi al Ameri and Muqtada Al-Sadr. They are closely trailed by
former defense minister and Sunni leader, Khalid al Obeidi. Among target
voters who approve of Abadi and the direction he is taking the country,
there would be more support if he ran on a different electoral list than
his current party, Da’wa. Only one in three in Baghdad and the south
support Abadi for a second term. This attitude is shaped by a perception
that he has failed to deliver on governmental  reforms.

With best regards,

Ken

Kenneth Wollack
President
National Democratic Institute
455 Massachusetts Ave., NW, 8th Floor
Washington, DC 20001
202-728-5500 (Tel)
888-875-2887 (Fax)
email: [email-masked]
website: www.ndi.or