Subject: Axios Sneak Peek: Scoop! $1.7 trillion in entitlement cuts — Debt ceiling latest — Trump tweet on a billboard
From: "Jonathan Swan" <[email-masked]>
To: <[email-masked]>
Date: Sun, 21 May 2017 17:19:08 -0400 (EDT)

Presented by Koch Industries:

Scoop: $1.7 trillion in entitlement cuts — Debt ceiling latest =E2�� Trump tweet on a billboard

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Presented By Koch Industries

Axios Sneak Peek

By Jonathan Swan = ·May 21, 2017<=span>

Welcome to Sneak Peek, our weekly lookahead for both en=s of Pennsylvania Avenue. I'd love your tips and feedback= [email-masked]=. We're all about "smart brevity" at Axios but there's so much news to=ay I hope you'll forgive me serving you 8 items instead of my usual 5.
=p>P.S. You're invited ... to an event Tu=sday at 8 a.m. in downtown D.C.: Chuck Todd and Jim VandeHei will host a live, onstage version of their famous mini-roundtable, plus=talk infrastructure with Atlanta Mayor Kasim Reed and Sen. Jim Inhofe (R-O=la.), an avid pilot. Hope to see you — RSVP here.

1. Scoop: Trump budget to cut $1.7 trillion in entitlements

President Trump's 2018 budget proposal on Tuesday won't=reform Social Security or Medicare — in line with his campaign pro=ise — but it will make serious cuts to other entitlement =rograms. A source with direct knowledge tells me the Trump budget =ill save $1.7 trillion on the mandatory side over the next ten years.

Balanced budget: I am told Trump's budget =ill balance over ten years. To get there, it will propose tough cuts on bo=h the mandatory and discretionary sides — e.g. to the EPA and Stat= Department — and will assume that the U.S economy will grow at 3 =ercent instead of the 1.6 percent rate it grew in 2016. The 3 percent grow=h rate will be reached after a few years, not immediately.

<=span>Where the entitlement cuts are made: From p=ograms including SNAP (food stamps), CHIP (Children's Health Insurance Pro=ram), and SSDI (Disability Insurance). The budget proposal will also assum= that Trump can sign into law the American Health Care Act — the O=amacare repeal and replace bill that passed the House and is now being con=idered by the Senate. That bill also makes substantial cuts to Medicaid (<= href="http://link.axios.com/click/9667024.28554/aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cud2FzaGl=Z3RvbnBvc3QuY29tL2J1c2luZXNzL2Vjb25vbXkvdHJ1bXAtdG8tcHJvcG9zZS1iaWctY3V0cy=0by1zYWZldHktbmV0LWluLW5ldy1idWRnZXQtdGhpcy13ZWVrLzIwMTcvMDUvMjEvNjJjMDFmN=QtM2UzNC0xMWU3LWFkYmEtMzk0ZWU2N2E3NTgyX3N0b3J5Lmh0bWw_dXRtX3Rlcm09LjU3M2Nl=WRmYmI1MiZ3cGlzcmM9YWxfYWxlcnQtbmF0aW9uYWwmd3Btaz0xJnV0bV9zb3VyY2U9bmV3c2x=dHRlciZ1dG1fbWVkaXVtPWVtYWlsJnV0bV9jYW1wYWlnbj1uZXdzbGV0dGVyX2F4aW9zc25lYW=wZWVr/5871993924c17c54d77a8b8cB8291cdfe" target="_blank">The Washington =ost pegs the Medicaid cuts at more than $800 billion over ten years). =/li>
How the entitlement money will be sa=ed: The source tells me there'll be an "emphasis on work requirem=nts for able-bodied people" to save money on these social welfare programs=

Expected reaction: In the past couple days I=ve spoken to a number of White House officials about the budget proposal. =he best summary, from one White House source: "Conservatives will love it;=moderates will probably hate it." These mandatory cuts — especiall= to politically-sensitive programs like food stamps — will make so=e moderate Republicans as nervous as the recent healthcare bill did.
<=>"Good news" budget items the administration will tout:

Student loans: As the Washington Post previewed: "stude=ts currently can have the balance of their loan forgiven after paying 10 p=rcent of their income for 20 years. Trump's proposal — which makes=good on a campaign promise — would raise the maximum payment to 12=5 percent of income, but shorten the payment period to 15 years."

=strong>Pell grants: As the Post previewed: "The spending plan supports y=ar-round Pell Grants, which allow low-income students to use the money for=three semesters of college, instead of two. That way, students can take a =ull load of courses year-round and earn a degree faster."

2. Trump changes Mideast posture

Evan Vucci / AP

President Trump gave a measured, disciplined speech to the Muslim world =n Saudi Arabia on Sunday, reading almost entirely off TelePrompTer.
What cable TV will focus on: Trump made a profound rhe=orical shift from the campaign — and it's a shift we forecasted a =ew weeks ago after a briefing with senior White House officials. He's now =alking about Islam in ways virtually indistinguishable from presidents Oba=a and George W. Bush.

The key difference: Trump on =he campaign said "Islam hates us." Today, Islam is "one of the world's gre=t faiths." And instead of bloviating about how he's the only guy with the =ourage to say "radical Islamic terrorism," Trump now uses the more PC "com=ating radicalization."

What really matters: We shou=dn't spend too much time obsessing over the rhetorical shift. Trump signal=d these substantial breaks from the Obama era:

The most=important: While Obama bent over backwards not to offend Iran as =e pursued the nuclear deal, Trump did something quite extraordinary: He ca=led on the Muslim world to "isolate" Iran. The Saudis got what they wanted=here.

Trump signaled that he'd be very different =rom past American presidents when it comes to discussing human rights. "We=are not here to lecture," Trump told the audience. He won't be using his p=esidential bully pulpit to pressure countries like Egypt and Saudi Arabia =or their human rights abuses. (Sidenotes: Senior White Ho=se officials have told me they'd do this privately, but we have no way of =nowing how tough they've actually been so far. Also, National Review's Ram=sh Ponnuru rightly notes that we shouldn't exaggerate how tough American presi=ents have ever been on Saudis and human rights.)

Trump sho=ed again that his presidency will be the most transactional in re=ent history. He framed his $110 billion arms deal with the Saudis as both = job-creating coup and as allowing the Saudis to take more responsibility =or their own security. This is a big deal: Trump is putti=g the onus on Muslim-majority countries to be more aggressive and spend mo=e money to fight terrorism. In Trump's most passionate moment of the speec=, he declared: "Drive them out."

3. The shows

Sunday highlight reel, with the focus =n Trump's first foreign trip:

National Security Adviser H.R.=McMaster, beamed in from Saudi Arabia to talk to George Stephanop=ulos on ABC's "This Week." Axios' Dave Lawler has these key takeaways:

McMaster twice declined to s=y whether Trump confronted the officials about Russian interference in the=election.

He acknowledged Trump discussed Comey's firing with the =ussians though he said the notes printed by the N.Y. Times =see: "nut job") may not be direct quotes. He said Trump had been trying to=make a point about being "hamstrung" in his efforts to deal with Russia be=ause of the investigation.

He said the FBI investigation did not c=me up when they were preparing for the meeting, suggesting Trump was impro=ising when he raised it.

Other highlights fro= today's shows:

Secretary of State Rex Tillerson further demonstrating the Trump administration's rhetorical moderation =E2�� calling the terror group "Daesh" (the Arab world's preferred term=nology, and the term John Kerry always used) rather than ISIS in his inter=iew on "Fox News Sunday."

Sen. Marco Rubio to Jak= Tapper on CNN's "State of the Union:" "If any president tries to impede a= investigation…It would be not just problematic. It would be, you =now, obviously potential obstruction of justice."

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4. Scoop: Trump didn't want to sign bill to keep government open

Publicly, President Trump didn't seem overjoyed when, earlier this month= he signed a $1 trillion bill to keep the government open. Privately, his =ood was much, much worse.

Behind-the-scenes: When t=e spending bill had been negotiated and finalized, White House chief of st=ff Reince Priebus phoned the former House Speaker John Boehner and told hi= the president doesn't like how the negotiation came out and is thinking a=out vetoing the bill. Boehner has told associates that Priebus asked him i= he could talk Trump into signing the spending bill. Boehner said he would=

Ten minutes later, Boehner's phone rang. It was th= President. Boehner made a couple different arguments to Trump about why h= should sign the spending bill:

He told Trump he should be happ= about the fact that he doesn't have to give a dollar of domestic spending=in exchange for increases in military spending. And he got a substantial b=ost in military spending.

The most important argument Boehner mad=: the last thing you need right now is a government shutdown.

Why this matters: I'm not suggesting Boehner's conversati=n with Trump was determinative. It's telling, however, that the President =ated the spending bill so much that his chief of staff felt the need to re=ch out to the former House Speaker — a guy who captained an implac=ble conference through plenty of funding battles — to convince Tru=p to sign the bill.

5. Healthcare's moment of truth

House GOP leadership expects that on Wednesday the Cong=essional Budget Office will release its final score — showing the =ost and coverage estimates of the American Health Care Act that recently p=ssed the House. Paul Ryan said Friday the House hadn't sent the bill to th= Senate because "out of an abundance of caution" they were waiting for the=CBO score. House leaders say they don't anticipate any problems in the sco=e that would force them to vote on AHCA all over again.

6. Montana special election

Polls close Thursday on a House special election in Montana, between Dem=crat Rob Quist and Republican Greg Gianforte. Montana is considered red =E2�� Trump won by =0 points — but Quist, a folk singer, has raised a stunning $5 =illion and is capitalizing on the energy of the progressive "resistance" a=ainst Trump.

Still, we expect Gianforte, a multimillionaire busines=man, to prevail. Republican sources on the ground in Montana had recent in=ernal polls with Gianforte ahead by around 4 points. And a source pointed =ut that Gianforte got a boost this week with Montana's largest tribe, the =row Tribe, endorsing him along with all the state's major newspapers endor=ing him including the Billings Gazette, the Missoulian, and the Great Fall= Tribune.

7. Behind-the-scenes on the debt ceiling

Last Wednesday, Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin had a meeting at the C=pitol with Republican leaders from the House and Senate, including Mitch M=Connell and Paul Ryan.

What everyone can agree on: =wo sources with direct knowledge of the meeting tell me Mnuchin made it cl=ar he wants the debt ceiling to be raised ahead of any "deadline," (Note: It's no se=ret that Mnuchin views the debt ceiling as non-negotiable — this i= money that's already been spent — and doesn't want politicians us=ng the debt ceiling as a tool to negotiate spending cuts.)

W=ere the accounts differ: One source told me: "it's not like peopl= laughed when he said before the August recess but the mood was clear that=this wasn't something that was ever going to happen." But a source close t= Mnuchin disputes that account and says the Secretary heard no rejection o= that pre-August timeline from anyone in the room and "we believe it's on =he table as a viable option."

Current timing: Treas=ry believes it can keep using emergency cash saving measures to avoid brea=ing the borrowing limit until the early fall.

8. 1 fun thing: the way to Trump's heart

Saudi Arabia's King Salman has pushed a core insight about Trump to its =ogical extreme: the way to this President's heart is through his ego.
<=>Bloomberg TV's Kevin Cirilli has been prolifically tweeting on the foreig= trip, and has my favorite picture of all the Saudi attempts to flatter Tr=mp. The Kingdom ensured one of Trump's tweets was screened on a billboard in downtow= Riyadh. (As Cirilli notes in his tweet, the poor photo quality is because=of the sandy conditions.)

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