Subject: EconVue Special Report on OBOR and Iranian Election 5/21/2017
From: "Lyric Hughes Hale" <[email-masked]>
To: "R. Hunter Biden" <[email-masked]>
Date: Sun, 21 May 2017 14:48:40 -0700 (PDT)

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EconVue Spotlight

Dear R. Hunter,

Last week marked the One Belt One Road Forum in Beijing. The new Silk 
Road is a foreign policy masterstroke, but some are beginning to be 
concerned that OBOR might become a political and economic quagmire, 
given the diversity of the 68 countries it hopes to include. The 
likeliest scenario is that it will create significant benefits for some 
countries such as Pakistan, where there is clear linkage and alignment, 
but the road is likely to be bumpy elsewhere. This week we've included a 
range of comments that examine possible constraints to growth, including 
competition from the two other great powers in the region, Japan and 
India.

Yesterday, I interviewed the director of the National American Iranian 
Council, Middle East foreign policy expert Trita Parsi

https://www.niacouncil.org/about-niac/staff-board/dr-trita-parsi/

. He has a new book coming out very soon from Yale University Press 
Losing an Enemy-Obama, Iran and the Triumph of Diplomacy

http://yalebooks.com/book/9780300218169/losing-enemy

. We discussed Friday's landslide (57%) re-election of President Hassan 
Rouhani, and what this means for Iran, the region, the US, and the 
world. To link to the ten points Dr Parsi made during our conversation, 
please click here

https://econvue.com/panels/sword-dance-middle-east-interview-trita-parsi-iranian-election

. Registered EconVue users

https://econvue.com/user/register?destination=node/1223%23comment-form

are welcome to comment on this panel. Of note since the interview, 
President Trump's remarks on Iran during his speech on Islam in Saudi 
Arabia today have reportedly dampened any election celebrations in Iran.

STORIES IN OUR SPOTLIGHT

Iranian Election

Trump Likely to Keep Pressure on Iran After Rouhani Election Win

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-iran-election-usa-idUSKCN18G0PX

Reuters 5/20/2017 No change is likely to the US-Iran relationship, but 
Trump's speech on Islam today in Saudi Arabia rang alarm bells. In spite 
of an election victory by moderate forces, Trump today called for both 
isolation of Iran and regime change while speaking in Riyadh. Will 
Congressional Democrats Give Trump Cover to Kill the Iran Deal?

https://www.niacouncil.org/will-congressional-democrats-give-trump-cover-kill-iran-deal/

Tyler Cullis 5/16/2017 NIAC If so, it would be ironic if Democrats 
helped to undo one of the Obama presidency's signature accomplishments. 
Pew Study

http://assets.pewresearch.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/12/2017/04/20111314/RussiaDanger_Topline_for_release.pdf

Countries the US Worries About April 2017 Post the recent nuclear 
agreement, most Americans do not think of Iran as negatively as they 
once did. Russia, North Korea, and China have supplanted their concerns. 
Only 9% now view Iran as the biggest threat to the US, versus 28% in 
2012.

One Belt One Road

Bumps on the New Silk Road

https://global.handelsblatt.com/politics/bumps-on-the-new-silk-road-765402

Till Hoppe & Stephan Scheuer 5/15/2017 Handelsblatt Global

A Beijing forum that was supposed to be all about supporting a project 
to expand trade routes between Asia, Europe and Africa has resulted in a 
lot of bickering over free trade instead. The view from Europe. Yes, 
China is investing globally—but not so much in its belt and road 
initiative

https://www.brookings.edu/blog/order-from-chaos/2017/05/08/yes-china-is-investing-globally-but-not-so-much-in-its-belt-and-road-initiative/?platform=hootsuite

David Dollar 5/8/2017 Brookings Institute

While the belt and road initiative has received a lot of attention, 
China's capital mostly seems to be going elsewhere.

China will launch 100 poverty alleviation projects and 100 health care, 
rehabilitation projects in countries along

https://twitter.com/XHNews/status/863579199813988352

China Xinhua News Twitter 5/13/2017

While laudable, is this level of engagement sustainable? Questions arise 
not only about capital, but finding skilled personnel in fields that are 
short of trained staff in China itself, such as health care. One Belt, 
One Road — and many questions

https://www.ft.com/content/d5c54b8e-37d3-11e7-ac89-b01cc67cfeec

Financial Times 5/14/2017 China's global plan must not reproduce 
domestic economic problems. Who Is Actually Attending China's Belt and 
Road Forum?

http://thediplomat.com/2017/05/who-is-actually-attending-chinas-belt-and-road-forum/

Shannon Tiezzi 5/12/2017 Diplomat

At current count, The Diplomat has confirmed official representatives 
from 57 countries, counting China. But not India. India, Japan plan 
counter to China's OBOR

http://www.sundayguardianlive.com/opinion/9494-india-japan-plan-counter-china-s-obor

Sunil Chacko 5/20/2017 SundayGuardianLive

Asia & EM

The Amount China Spends Eating Out is Greater than the GDP of Sweden

https://qz.com/982340/china-spent-507-billion-eating-out-in-2016-greater-than-the-gdp-of-sweden/?utm_source=qzfb

Echo Huang 5/12/2017 Quartz

The Chinese are known for their voracious appetites, and the total 
amount they spent eating out last year is so massive it's actually 
greater than the gross domestic product of a number of countries, 
including developed ones such as Sweden and Norway, according to the 
most recent figures from the World Bank. China Has World's Biggest 
Productivity Problem

https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2017-05-11/china-has-the-world-s-biggest-productivity-problem

Michael Schuman 5/11/2017 Bloomberg Slowing productivity could sabotage 
China's rise. Key piece of the global productivity puzzle. Made or mad 
in India? Red tape and taxes are putting brakes on Modi's push to 
emulate China

http://www.scmp.com/news/asia/south-asia/article/2094276/made-or-mad-india-red-tape-and-taxes-are-putting-brakes-modis?utm_source=t.co&utm_medium=referral

Agence France-Presse 5/14/2017 South China Morning Post What's hobbling 
Modi's bid to emulate China for big business? Red tape, bureaucracy. 
According to EconVue expert Deepak Lalwani's

https://econvue.com/experts/deepak-lalwani

latest report "India's most ambitious tax reform in 70 years is aimed at 
transforming its $2.3 trillion economy and a market of 1.3 billion 
people into a single economic zone with the same indirect taxes. This is 
something that neither the EU nor the US has been able to achieve thus 
far". If Americans Can Find North Korea on a Map, They're More Likely to 
Prefer Diplomacy

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2017/05/14/upshot/if-americans-can-find-north-korea-on-a-map-theyre-more-likely-to-prefer-diplomacy.html?_r=0

Kevin Quealy 5/14/2017 New York Times Only 36% of Americans got it 
right. A clear and present danger to us all. Driehaus Frontier Emerging 
Markets Fund

http://driehauscapitalmanagement.com/pdf/funds/summaries/Driehaus-Frontier-Emerging-Markets-Fund_DRFRX_summary_0417.pdf

KENYA: Driehaus Capital Management 4/30/2017 Although Kenya's risk 
factors signal caution, attractive opportunities remain in the market.

EconVue Research

Symbiotic Disruption: Skilled-Nursing-REIT Ecosystem Adapts to Market 
Dynamics

https://econvue.com/pulse/symbiotic-disruption-skilled-nursing-reit-ecosystem-adapts-market-dynamics

David Johnson

https://econvue.com/experts/david-w-johnson

As markets evolve, participants specialize to achieve greater 
efficiencies and become more inter-dependent. When business sectors 
confront disruption, strategic partnerships become vulnerable. 
Participants adjust and some fail. Survivors strengthen their shared 
environment by adapting to new market realities in compatible ways.

Strategic Insights: Caribbean Security Issues

https://econvue.com/pulse/strategic-insights-caribbean-security-issues

R.&nbsp;Evan Ellis

https://econvue.com/experts/r-evan-ellis

https://econvue.com/experts/r-evan-ellis

Today, the Caribbean is at peace and continues to be a strategically 
important region to the United States and its geopolitical rivals, 
transnational criminal organizations, and those who live there. 
Currently, the security environment of the Caribbean is subject to 
multiple interacting stresses, influences, and potentially 
transformative events posing significant consequences for the United 
States and the region.

Data Round-Up: 'Trump Bump' Persists, in Philadelphia at Least

https://econvue.com/reports/michael-lewis/data-round-trump-bump-persists-philadelphia-least

Michael Lewis

https://econvue.com/experts/michael-lewis

(Subscriber content)

Regional surveys for May have been mixed to date with Philadelphia Fed 
manufacturing index registering continued robust expansion, while its NY 
Fed counterpart retrenched.

Digital Fuel

https://econvue.com/pulse/digital-fuel

Collin Canright

https://econvue.com/experts/collin-canright

Highlights include: Slow API adoption is dragging U.S. banking down, 
‘Most bank innovation programs are just innovation theater', SoFi plans 
to apply for a bank charter in the next month, P2P payments are the new 
social norm, ICBA delivers paper on bank regulation to U.S. Treasury, 
Chicago Corner

Our Experts in the Media

100 Days of Trump

https://livestream.com/UniversityofTasmania/events/7377260

University of Tasmania 5/16/2017 StreamVideo

EconVue expert Saul Eslake&nbsp;

https://econvue.com/experts/saul-eslake

speaks at a panel discussion at the University of Tasmania in Australia

With all best wishes,

Lyric Hughes Hale

Editor-in-Chief

Econvue.com
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My articles for Yale Books London
http://yalebooks.wordpress.com/?s=lyric+Hughes+Hale

"What's Next? Unconventional Wisdom on the Future of the Global Economy"
http://whatsnextbook.com/

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