Subject: Axios Sneak Peek: Europe jolted ?— Globalist Gary — Iran and Russia sanctions
From: "Jonathan Swan" <[email-masked]>
To: <[email-masked]>
Date: Sun, 28 May 2017 15:59:05 -0400 (EDT)

Presented by Koch Industries:

Europe jolted — Globalist Gary — Iran and Russia sanctio=s

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Presented By Koch Industries

Axios Sneak Peek

By Jonathan Swan = ·May 28, 2017<=span>

Welcome to Sneak Peek, our weekly lookahead for both en=s of Pennsylvania Avenue. I'd love your tips and feedback= [email-masked]=.

And...you asked for it ... You got it! Axios =M — Mike Allen's super-quick take on what's happened while you've =een doing actual work — detonates Tuesday afternoon following the =oliday weekend. Sign up here

1 big thing: Trump jolts Europe

After spending time with President Trump at the G7, German Chancellor An=ela Merkel has concluded that the United States can no longer be relied up=n as a security blanket for Europe. Merkel's comments foreshadow a=transformation of the U.S.-European alliances that have u=derwritten post-WWII stability. Her comments, Sunday, per the AFP:

Europe "must take its fate into its=own hands" faced with a western alliance divided by Brexit and Donald Trum='s presidency, Merkel told a crowd Sunday at an election rally in Munich, =outhern Germany.

While Germany and Europe would strive to remain o= good terms with America and Britain, "we have to fight for our own destin=", Merkel went on. Special emphasis was needed on warm relations between B=rlin and newly-elected French President Emmanuel Macron, she said.

"Th= times in which we could completely depend on others are on the way out. <=trong>I've experienced that in the last few days."

What's behind this: Trump publicly lectured=NATO allies that they must stop shirking their financial commitments and b=gin paying for their own defense rather than relying on the U.S. While the=White House publicly refutes this, Trump's unmistakable message to Europe =n his first foreign trip was that the days of unquestioning protection fro= the U.S. are over.

Side note: As the NYT's Maggie=Haberman point= out, the place where Merkel's comments will be best received is Russi=. Putin is constantly looking for ways to sow discord between European cou=tries and the United States. (Though, it's also worth noting that if NATO =ountries respond to Trump's pressure by meeting their defense spending com=itments, this is bad news for Putin.)

What's next: =rump unsettled Merkel by making the U.S. the only G7 nation to refusing to=reaffirm the Paris Accord on climate change. (We scooped yesterday that Trump has told confidants he's planning to=exit the Paris deal. With Trump there's always the caveat that he could ch=nge his mind...But based on my conversations over the past 24 hours, I exp=ct EPA Administrator Scott Pruitt will present a detailed withdrawal plan =o Trump and Trump will act on it.)

2. Hardliners vs 🌎 (aka Gary Cohn)

Almost three days have passed since Gary Cohn expressed skepticism about the future of the U.S. coal=industry, but expect conservative hardliners to keep weaponizing Cohn's co=ments.

The offending comments, made by the Presiden='s top economic advisor Thursday aboard Air Force One: "Coal doesn't even =ake that much sense anymore as a feedstock. Natural gas ... is such a clea=er fuel ... If you think about how solar and how much wind power we've cre=ted in the United States, we can be a manufacturing powerhouse and still b= environmentally friendly."

The conservative backlash:

Breitbart News, the right-wing website form=rly run by Trump's chief strategist Steve Bannon, ran an immediate hit pie=e accusing Cohn of launching a "war on coa=." The website followed by goading=Joe Manchin — "a Democratic U.S. Senator from the heart of coal co=ntry in West Virginia" — into attacking Cohn from the right.
<=i>Fun thing: Breitbart is embracing the 🌎 emoj= in headlines relating to Cohn. (As we told you a few weeks back, this is =he nickname that nationalists in the Trump administration use in text mess=ges to refer to the man they also call "Globalist Gary.")

=yron Ebell, who ran Trump's EPA transition team and wrote the age=cy's action plan, isn't happy about Cohn's comments and emails me: "NEC Ch=irman Gary Cohn does not represent the people who voted for Donald J. Trum= ... I hope that what President Trump learned is that the other G7 leaders=are marching in lockstep in the wrong direction and that it is up to him t= lead the world towards energy abundance and prosperity."

=homas Pyle, who headed Trump's energy transition team, emailed me=this in response to Cohn's comments: "The wind and solar industry has been=built on the backs of American taxpayers and yet still produce a tiny frac=ion of the energy we consume in the U.S., significantly less than coal. Pr=sident Trump is a successful businessman who understands the severe impact= that the policies of politicians past have had on working class families =n the American Rust Belt. He hardly needs to evolve on this subject."
=/ul>

3. The shows

The President had the generals representing him on Sunday's shows. Gener=l Mattis outlined the strategy to destroy ISIS and General Kelly beat back=questions about Jared Kushner's reported request for a secret backchannel =o communicate with the Russians.

Defense Secretary James Ma=tis to John Dickerson on CBS' "Face the Nation":

On ISIS: "Probably the most important thing we're doing now is =e're accelerating this fight. We're accelerating the tempo of it."
Strategic shift: "We have already shifted from attrition =actics where we shove them from one position to another in Iraq and Syria,=to annihilation tactics where we surround them."

Elaborati=g: "You see that right now, for example, in western Mosul that is=surrounded... We have got efforts underway right now to surround their sel=-declared caliphate capital of Raqqa. That surrounding operation is going =n. And once surrounded, then we'll go in and clean them out."

The money quote: Dickerson asked Mattis what keeps him up at n=ght. Mattis' response raced around social media: "Nothing. I keep other people a=ake at night."

Homeland Security Secretary John Kelly<=strong> to Martha Raddatz on ABC's "This Week":

On Kus=ner backchannel reports: "It's both normal, in my opinion, and ac=eptable. Any way that you can communicate with people, particularly organi=ations that are maybe not particularly friendly to us is a good thing."
On which security vulnerability concerns him most: "=viation ... we're very definitely going to raise the bar in terms of bagga=e security."

Budget bonus: Lindsey Graham giv=s reason #459 why Trump's budget is dead on arrival. The hawkish Republica= Senator told Dana Bash on CNN's "State of the Union": "Twenty-nine percen= reduction in State Department funding, that takes soft power off the tabl= ... destroying soft power does not make us safer. And that's what his bud=et does."

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4. Coming attractions

The House and Senate are in recess this week, but leadership sources in =oth chambers preview important legislation that'll land when Congress retu=ns on June 5.

In the House: A leadership source te=ls me he anticipates the "Financial CHOICE Act" will hit the House floor w=en they return. The bill repeals and rolls back major pieces of the Dodd-F=ank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act — the sweeping =inancial regulations that President Obama pushed through after the 2008 fi=ancial crash.

Repealing Dodd-Frank has been a priority for Rep=blicans, led by House Financial Services Committee chair Jeb Hensarling. <=li>
Republicans say Dodd-Frank crushed community banks and stifled econ=mic growth. Democrats say removing these regulations will likely lead to m=re reckless Wall Street behavior and ultimately another crash.

In the Senate: A big veterans' bill designed t= "reform the VA by allowing the secretary to dismiss bad employees and ens=re appropriate due process protections for whistleblowers," says Mitch McC=nnell's spokesman Don Stewart. Bill highlights, per Rebec=a Coffman of Concerned Veterans for America:

R=duces the time it takes to terminate an employee found to have engaged in =isconduct.

Requires the VA Secretary to explain to Congress why he=or she didn't follow through on a recommendation to terminate someone.Takes VA employees who are found to have engaged in misconduct off the=payroll while they are going through the termination and appeals process.<=li>
Allows VA Secretary to retroactively take back bonuses given to emp=oyees who engage in misconduct or commit a crime.

Reduces pensions=of VA employees found guilty of felonies related to their employment at th= VA.

5. 1 thing to watch: Dems to tie Russia to Iran

A well-placed Senate Democratic aide emails this tip: "Expect many Senat= Dems to push for the Senate to not do Iran sanctions without Russian sanc=ions."

What this means: Democratic leaders will=exploit the ties between Iran and Russia — and the administration'= weak position with regard to anything concerning Russia — to dema=d that no new sanctions are imposed on Iran without additional sanctions t= Russia.

Our thought bubble: Democrats who support =he Iran nuke deal, like former Secretary of State John Kerry, are worried =bout a bill=that passed through the Senate Foreign Relations Committee last week. The =ill imposes new sanctions on Iran over its ballistic missile tests and oth=r destabilizing behavior. These additional sanctions don't relate to the n=clear deal, but some Democrats are anxious that imposing these sanctions c=uld unravel the Iran deal.

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Innovating new ways to make everyday products better while using fewer natu=al resources is a huge challenge, but at Koch, it’s one our 70,000=U.S. employees accept every day. Learn more.

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