Subject: Axios Sneak Peek — Trump's 'diehard' worry — New TV face for White House — D.C. 'Apprentice'
From: "Jonathan Swan" <[email-masked]>
To: <[email-masked]>
Date: Sun, 11 Jun 2017 16:33:06 -0400 (EDT)

Presented by Koch Industries:

Trump's 'diehard' worry — New TV face for White House �=94 D.C. 'Apprentice'

Presented By Koch Industries

Axios Sneak Peek

By Jonathan Swan = ·Jun 11, 2017<=span>

Welcome to Sneak Peek, our weekly lookahead for both en=s of Pennsylvania Avenue. I'd love your tips and feedback= [email-masked]=.

And for our West Coast readers ... Join Axi=s for our debut editorial event in Los Angeles — on the next fron=ier: the human brain. It's this Wednesday, June 14, at 8:30 a.m. Axios Science Editor Alison Snyder will host one-on-one conversatio=s with leading experts on artificial intelligence, brain-machine interface=, biopharmaceuticals and virtual reality. RSVP here.

1 big thing: Base erosion

Sources both inside and close to the White House are worryi=g about a loss of energy among the President's base — or as one ad=isor colorfully put it, the folks who'd "walk over glass" for Trump.
Two trends that are troubling them:

Tr=mp's strong approval has fallen quickly: As Nate Silver outlines =n this late May article titled "Donald Tr=mp's base is shrinking": "There's been a considerable decline in the numbe= of Americans who strongly approve of Trump, from a peak of around 30 perc=nt in February to just 21 or 22 percent of the electorate now. (The declin= in Trump's strong approval ratings is larger than the overall decline in =is approval ratings, in fact.) Far from having unconditional love =rom his base, Trump has already lost almost a third of his strong support.=

Slide among whites without coll=ge degrees: Only 46% of whites with no college degr=e approve of the way Trump is handling his job as president, according=to the most recent Quinnipiac University poll. In the same poll in early M=rch, 60 percent of whites without college degrees �=94 a group that was key to Trump's victory — approved of his job p=rformance.

Caveats: These are national, not=state numbers, and it's normal for a President's numbers to creep down fro= the start of the presidency. The numbers are also volatile: If Trump deli=ers some big policy wins, he could quickly reverse these trends.

=li>But the concerns are real: Some White House advisors a=e worried that if these most intense supporters lose their passion for him= there'll be no way to regain the energy in time to fight off a fired-up l=ft in 2018.

An evolving line of thinking: Trump =ill probably never be at 51% approval — the "strongly disapprove" =umber against him, which is around half the voting public, makes that virt=ally impossible. The strategy, therefore, has to involve keeping the dieha=d ginned up and driving up Trump's "strongly approve" numbers. There's lit=le hope of converting Democrats — beyond the Midwest working class=who already voted for Trump. So it's crucial to keep a large enough base t=at's willing to walk over glass for the President.

The Par=s model: A good number in the administration recognize Trump's wi=hdrawal from the Paris deal as an example of him delivering for his base. =heir view: It's irrelevant that most Americans don't support withdrawing f=om Paris because there's not one person who supports the climate deal �=80� and who actually votes on it — that would ever be persuaded =o vote for Trump.

As Silver puts it: "voters who =trongly disapprove of Trump outnumber those who strongly approve of him by=about a 2-to-1 ratio, which could presage an 'enthusiasm gap' that works against Trump =t the midterms."

Trump still reads the polls intense=y, even though he no longer boasts about them publicly. Advisors =ay he knows he's screwed if he can't deliver on the big promises like repe=ling Obamacare, cutting taxes and building the wall. He seemed to indicate=that last week, when he kicked off a closed-door meeting with congressiona= leaders by saying that the base was strong and it was time to come throug= for them.

=/a>

2. "The Lanny Davis" of Trump's legal team

On ABC's "This Week," George Stephanopoulos introduced =strong>Jay Sekulow as "a member of President Trump's legal team."=

Our tip: You'll be seeing a lot more of Sekulow as=the Russia probe escalates. A conservative attorney with a nationally-synd=cated radio show, Sekulow has had a mutually supportive relationship with =rump for some years and has met with the President at the White House rece=tly.

"He's going to be the Lanny Davis of =his," said a source familiar with the legal team being constructed to supp=rt Trump in his fight against the Russia investigation. "He's sharp on his=feet and polished. He's exactly what Trump likes."

What the=source means by that comparison is that Sekulow — like lawyer Lann= Davis was for Bill Clinton — is expected to be the omnipresent TV=face of Trump's defense. The President's lead lawyer on the Russia probe, =arc Kasowitz, is not viewed as good media talent, and I'm told Trump think= Sekulow does a good job defending him on TV.

Background on =ekulow:

He's well-connected in the conservative movem=nt. His group, the American Center for Law & Justice (ACLJ), was found=d by Pat Robertson.

Argued 12 cases before the Supreme Court and m=de a speciality of fighting high-profile religious liberty cases.

=ekulow fought against the "Ground Zero Mosque" and during that effort Trump offered to buy the site. Sekulow also appreciated <= href="http://link.axios.com/click/9822247.24138/aHR0cHM6Ly90d2l0dGVyLmN=bS9yZWFsRG9uYWxkVHJ1bXAvc3RhdHVzLzQxMzc3MTU3OTEzNTIyOTk1NT91dG1fc291cmNlPW=ld3NsZXR0ZXImdXRtX21lZGl1bT1lbWFpbCZ1dG1fY2FtcGFpZ249bmV3c2xldHRlcl9heGlvc=NuZWFrcGVlayZzdHJlYW09dG9wLXN0b3JpZXM/5871993924c17c54d77a8b8cB73ef18c3" t=rget="_blank">Trump's public support of his campaign to free Saeed A=edini — an Iranian American Christian pastor who was imprisoned in=Iran.

Sekulow and Trump share a taste for Brioni Italian menswear=

3. Today's shows

What happens when a White House doesn't book a single o=ficial to represent it on the Sunday shows? Easy. The networks fill the va=uum with highly-quotable figures like Preet Bharara — the former U=S. attorney for the Southern District of New York — and independen=-minded Republican senators like Susan Collins.

Here's Preet=/strong> giving his first TV interview since Trump fired him in March, on =BC's "This Week":

"There is absolutely evidence to b=gin a case" for obstruction of justice by Trump.

"No one knows=right now whether there is a provable case of obstruction...[But] there's =o basis to say there's no obstruction."

A tease on his contact wit= President-elect and later President Trump: "So they're unusual phone call= and it sort of — when I've been reading the stories of how the Pr=sident has been contacting Jim Comey over time, felt a little bit like dej= vu. And I'm not the FBI director, but I was the chief federal law enforce=ent officer in Manhattan with jurisdiction over a lot of things including,=you know, business interests and other things in New York."

Here's Susan Collins =/strong>on CNN's "State of the Union":

On Trump's "tapes" with Comey: "This is an issue=that the President should have cleared up in his press conference. He shou=d give a straight yes or no...to the question of whether or not the tapes =xist. And he should voluntarily turn them over not only to the Senate Inte=ligence Committee, but to the special counsel."

On whether she'd support issuing a subpoena for Trump audio tapes: "I would be fine with issuing a subpoena, but that most likely would co=e from the special counsel's office."

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4. The Apprentice (Washington edition)

The White House and Congress have a one-two pun=h planned for "workforce development week" — which will a=tually be stretched out over two weeks because House leadership has legisl=tion ready to go.

The White House will take administrative act=ons to expand apprenticeships and job retraining. The administration's goa= is to plug the "skills gap" that's leaving an estimated 6 million jobs un=illed. The President's daughter Ivanka will be leading the drive, along wi=h senior advisor Reed Cordish, from Jared Kushner's Office of American Inn=vation, and Labor Secretary Alex Acosta.

The following week, House=leadership will drop onto the floor the first significant workforce traini=g legislation of this congressional session. It's a bipartisan bill=to reauthorize the "Perkins Act" for six years — providing more th=n $1 billion per year in federal support for career and technical educatio= programs.

Around the corner: A senior House =ide tells me members are looking at another bill "to help welfare recipien=s find work, and focus current welfare spending on reducing welfare depend=ncy by increasing employment."

Why it matters: =s Axios' Chris Matthews r=ported last week, "firms are demanding more labor, but not finding qua=ified workers, even as millions of Americans remain unemployed or outside =he formal labor market. This is evidence of an expanding skills gap betwee= what Americans can do and what Corporate America needs done."

Other calendar notes:

Veterans bill: On Tuesday, House will vote on the Veterans Affairs Accountability and W=istleblower Protection Act. The bill makes it easier to "remove, demote or=suspend (for longer than 14 days) any VA employee for poor performance or =isconduct." After the House passes the bill it goes to the President's des= for signing.

Russia watch: Also on Tuesday, the =ttorney General Jeff Sessions will testify before the Senate Intelligence =ommittee. We don't know yet whether it'll be a closed or open hearing.Cuba policy: On Friday, the President is expected to =ravel to Miami, where he's expected to announce that he's reversing parts =f President Obama's historic "opening" to Cuba. Cuba hardliners in Congres= like Marco Rubio have been pushing hard behind the scenes.

5. 1 problematic thing: Who believes Trump?

The President has said unequivocally that he ne=er told James Comey he hoped he could drop the FBI investigation =f Mike Flynn. Trump even told ABC's Jon Karl that he'd be prepared to say =o under oath.

But high-profile Republicans are lend=ng credence to Comey's version of events, (even though some, like Ronna Mc=aniel, are nonetheless aggressively defending Trump):

R=C chair Ronna McDaniel told Fox New= Sunday host Chris Wallace that even if Comey's testimony is true �=94 that Trump told the former FBI director he "hopes" he let the Flynn inv=stigation go — her personal experience as a mother tells her "ther='s a difference between saying 'I hope you do your homework' and 'Go do yo=r homework.'"

Donald Trump Jr.: "When he tells yo= to do something, guess what? There's no ambiguity in it, there's no, 'Hey= I'm hoping' ... You and I are friends: 'Hey, I hope this happens, but you=ve got to do your job.' That's what he told Comey. And for this guy as a p=litician to then go back and write a memo: 'Oh, I felt threatened.' He fel= so threatened — but he didn't do anything."

Paul =yan: "He's new at government and so therefore I think that he's l=arning as he goes."

Sen. Susan Collins on CNN's S=ate of the Union: "I found...former Director Comey's testimony to be candi=, to be thorough, and he testified under oath."

Sen. Marco=Rubio: "No one has either informed him, or he's been unwilling to=be informed, about why the sort of requests like the one he made would be =nappropriate."

Gov. Chris Christie also put Trump=s comments to Comey down to inexperience in government. Christie said Trum= would've considered his comments to Comey to be "normal New York City con=ersation."

Sen. Richard Burr (R-N.C.), chair of t=e Senate Intelligence Committee, lavishly praised Comey at his hearing, ma=ing clear he considered him an honorable and truthful man.

Sen. James Lankford (R-Okla.), told CBS' "Face the Nation": "for=the issue to come up about the Michael Flynn investigations, inappropriate=... [but] this looks more like an inappropriate conversation than obstruct=on."

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