Subject: EconVue Spotlight July 24, 2017 | Focus on Iran
From: "Lyric Hughes Hale" <[email-masked]>
To: "R. Hunter Biden" <[email-masked]>
Date: Mon, 24 Jul 2017 15:32:42 -0700 (PDT)

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EconVue Spotlight

Dear R. Hunter,

There are two major epicenters which have the ability to create either 
wider prosperity in their region, or global economic fault lines. The 
first is China, which is the only major developing market not to 
experience a recent financial crisis, and the second is Iran. Iran is as 
big as all of Western Europe, and three times larger than Iraq. It is 
the second largest economy in the Middle East and the second largest 
supplier of natural gas after Russia. Both are countries I have studied 
for decades, but now I am particularly concerned about a possible change 
in direction in US-Iran policy. I might need to update an article I 
wrote more than five years ago, " The Coming Accidental War with Iran

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/lyric-hughes-hale/the-coming-accidental-war_b_1170574.html

". Last week I participated in a teleconference with Iran's Foreign 
Affairs Minister Mohammed Javad Zarif at the Council on Foreign 
Relations in New York. Zarif seemed disappointed by the pace of 
international business activity after the nuclear deal was signed with 
the US in 2015. He put this down to th e expectation of further 
sanctions and uncertainties surrounding the US administration. After 
Iran's election in May, there are positive signs of reforms meant to 
attract global investors, which include new taxation legislation, as 
EconVue e xpert Narimon Safavi

https://econvue.com/experts/narimon-safavi

writes in his article on Iran's changing economy . All this might be in 
vain. The JCPOA

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joint_Comprehensive_Plan_of_Action

between the US, Iran, the EU and five other countries was a signal 
achievement of the Obama Administration. To understand what was involved 
from an insider perspective, I highly recommend Trita Parsi's new book, 
" Losing an Enemy

http://yalebooks.yale.edu/book/9780300218169/losing-enemy

" coming out on August 1st. Given recent events, Obamacare could outlast 
the Iran nuclear deal. We'll see what happens in Washington this week. 
Ironically, the structure of the deal might contain the seeds of its 
destruction. The framework of the JCPOA requires certification by the US 
every ninety days. Although President Trump signed recertification last 
week, Foreign Policy

http://foreignpolicy.com/2017/07/21/trump-assigns-white-house-team-to-target-iran-nuclear-deal-sidelining-state-department

broke a story on Friday that claims he has asked a White House team to 
make sure this doesn't happen again . China, even at the height of trade 
tensions with the US, had to fight its Most Favored Nation battle only 
once a year. Next week's edition will focus on India, as well as the 
increasingly tense India-China relationship.

STORIES IN OUR SPOTLIGHT

Iran Is the Nuclear Deal with Iran Slipping Away

http://www.newyorker.com/news/news-desk/is-the-nuclear-deal-with-iran-slipping-away

? Robin Wright 7/19/2017 New Yorker

A Conversation with Mohammad Javad Zarif

https://www.cfr.org/event/conversation-mohammad-javad-zarif

Council on Foreign Relations 7/17/2017 Video Video of the discussion I 
attended via teleconference. Zarif joked that he has spent more time 
with (then Sec'y of State) John Kerry than any other human being.

Total's Iran Deal Gives Rouhani Space to Push Reform

https://www.chathamhouse.org/expert/comment/total-s-iran-deal-gives-rouhani-space-push-reform?utm_source=CSIS+All&utm_campaign=0bd55c78a4-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2017_07_18&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_f326fc46b6-0bd55c78a4-150295485#undefined.uxfs

Dr Sanam Vakil and Dr Neil Quilliam 7/5/2017 Chatham House The time is 
now for European governments and international companies to ignore 
distractions from Washington and the Gulf countries and encourage 
economic reform in Tehran. The French oil company Total has decided to 
move forward. Rouhani Tries to Get Iranians to Pay Their Taxes&nbsp;

https://www.theguardian.com/world/iran-blog/2015/feb/05/rouhani-tries-to-get-iranians-to-pay-their-taxes

The Guardian 2/5/2015 Repairing the Islamic Republic's broken tax system 
becomes a priority as oil revenues continue to fall.

US-Debate of the Week On the prospects for higher economic growth

http://www.aei.org/publication/on-the-prospects-for-higher-economic-growth/?platform=hootsuite

John F. Cogan, R. Glenn Hubbard, John B. Taylor and Kevin Warsh 
7/18/2017 AEI At least two of the authors are in the running for Fed 
Chair next year. Trump will likely appoint six Fed governors in the next 
twelve months. Trump's budget assumes 3 percent annual growth. Why 
that's extremely unlikely, explained

https://www.vox.com/the-big-idea/2017/3/21/14938698/growth-trump-economic-us-slowdown-demographics-stagnation

Jason Furman 5/24/2017 Vox I agree with Furman. Policy based on 3% 
growth that misses its target is riskier than one based on 2% that 
overshoots. Headwinds are still strong. China

China's economic growth is driven by all the things it says it wants to 
get rid of

https://qz.com/1030268/chinas-gdp-growth-is-driven-by-all-the-things-it-says-it-wants-to-get-rid-of/

Zheping Huang 7/16/2017 Quartz How the One-Child Policy Heightens 
China's Aging Crisis

http://www.sixthtone.com/news/1000528/how-the-one-child-policy-heightens-chinas-aging-crisis

Zhang Wenli and Yu Yan 7/17/2017 the Sixth Tone If China can develop a 
good elderly care system, that will be the only hope for those born in 
the '80s-‘90s Portugal's bond with China: pioneering debt sale founded 
on&nbsp;close ties

https://flipboard.com/@flipboard/-portugals-bond-with-china-pioneering-de/f-8bba99ae39%2Freuters.com

John Geddie and Dhara Ranasinghe 7/3/2017 Flipboard Watch Portugal. The 
EU's second worst performing banking sector, NPLs at 20%. The Doklam 
Standoff Is The Beginning of a Troubling New Era in India-China Ties

http://thediplomat.com/2017/07/the-doklam-standoff-is-the-beginning-of-a-troubling-new-era-in-india-china-ties/

Gaurav Kalwani 7/20/2017 the Diplomat Challenging times lie ahead for 
India. While the conflict at Doklam continues with no clear end in 
sight, none of the possible outcomes will immediately solve India's 
China problem, its Siliguri problem, or its Northeast problem. Longer 
term, however, through a proactive approach to Northeast policy, India 
could eventually kill three birds with one stone.

ECONVUE RESEARCH

Update on Iran's Political Economy: Will Taxes Replace Oil Revenues?

https://econvue.com/pulse/update-irans-political-economy-will-taxes-replace-oil-revenues

Narimon Safavi

https://econvue.com/experts/narimon-safavi

While the rest of the world is preoccupied with the now familiar crises 
in the MENA region (refugees, the Syrian civil war, Yemen) the newly 
reelected president of Iran appears to be making determined moves to 
shift Iran's economy from dependence upon energy resources to reliance 
on taxation revenues. RMB Redux

https://econvue.com/pulse/rmb-redux

Karim Pakravan

https://econvue.com/experts/karim-pakravan

While recent data has abated concerns about the Chinese economy, the 
strength of the yuan is mostly a reflection of US dollar weakness, as 
well as the restrictions on capital accounts. While central bank actions 
have contributed to stabilize the currency, in the long-term they run 
counter to the goal of yuan internationalization. The Bumpier Road to a 
'Trump Bump' in Fiscal Policy

https://econvue.com/reports/michael-lewis/bumpier-road-trump-bump-fiscal-policy

Michael Lewis

https://econvue.com/experts/michael-lewis

(Subscription content)

While the Republican bid to "repeal and replace" the Affordable Care Act 
may be done for the year, reports of the demise of the rest of the Trump 
agenda are greatly exaggerated. The White House still has a good chance 
to achieve meaningful tax reform this year as well as some spending 
cuts. Trump has made tangible progress in relieving the burdens of 
federal regulation on the economy and rates to generate substantial 
further relief. Still at the starting gate is Trump's ballyhooed 
infrastructure program. The White House has issued few details and no 
timetable yet for the potential trillion-dollar effort. However, given 
that this may be the only Trump initiative that can get Democrat votes 
in Congress, odds are good that Trump will deliver something. The 
Dominican Republic: Security challenges, government responses and 
recommendations for the U.S.

https://econvue.com/pulse/dominican-republic-security-challenges-government-responses-and-recommendations-us

R. Evan Ellis

https://econvue.com/experts/r-evan-ellis

The strong U.S. interest in the success of the Dominican Republic is 
complemented by the deep-rooted positive orientation of the Dominican 
Republic—at both the state and popular level—toward the United States. 
As a result, the U.S. continues to have in the Dominican Republic a 
highly receptive and cooperative partner to pursue initiatives in 
security cooperation and other areas.

With all best wishes,

Lyric Hughes Hale

Editor-in-Chief

Econvue.com
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http://yalebooks.wordpress.com/?s=lyric+Hughes+Hale

"What's Next? Unconventional Wisdom on the Future of the Global Economy"
http://whatsnextbook.com/

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