Subject: EconVue Spotlight August 5, 2017 | Is Winter Coming to the India-China Relationship?
From: "Lyric Hughes Hale" <[email-masked]>
To: "R. Hunter Biden" <[email-masked]>
Date: Sat, 5 Aug 2017 17:21:23 -0700 (PDT)

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EconVue Spotlight

Dear R. Hunter,

There has been much discussion about China's GDP surpassing the US. Less 
attention has been paid to forecasts that India will become not only the 
most populous nation in the world by 2025, but that by 2050 the size of 
the Indian economy will also surpass the United States. Indian Prime 
Minister Narendra Modi has enacted a slew of economic reforms since he 
came to power in 2014. Inflation seemingly under control, last week 
India's central bank cut interest rates by 25 bps. Manufacturing has 
slowed, likely a result of dislocations caused by the GST and currency 
reform. Is India about to enter a sustained period of slower growth? Is 
Modi's government pursuing a two-track policy with China, with trade on 
the front burner and border disputes simmering on the back burner? What 
could go wrong, and what could go right with Modi's innovative economic 
reforms? We've asked EconVue contributor Deepak Lalwani in London to 
share his views. Register

https://econvue.com/user/register?destination=node/1353%23comment-form

to ask questions and comment on his panel. Links to his research can be 
found below. Trade between China and India has increased significantly 
(nearly 500% over the last ten years) but in 1962 the two countries were 
at war. Tensions are again escalating and for the same 
reasons--territorial disputes in the Himalayas. China's Ministry of 
Foreign Affairs released a paper

http://www.fmprc.gov.cn/mfa_eng/zxxx_662805/P020170802542676636134.pdf

and held a press conference last week, outlining their claims that India 
has violated its territory. Chinese media attention has reached a fever 
pitch

http://www.news18.com/news/india/china-may-undertake-military-operation-to-expel-indian-troops-says-media-report-1483175.html

. In contrast to the North Korea impasse, both sides have differing 
views on the status quo, increasing the chances that escalation will 
continue. Politics is not the only area of disagreement; India's trade 
deficit with China has increased and India has launched investigations 
into a bevy of Chinese products. This is a space worth watching. 
Ironically, the coming of winter could be a good thing. It will make 
border conflict in an extremely remote corner of the world nearly 
impossible to conduct.

STORIES IN OUR SPOTLIGHT

India-China

A Forgotten War in the&nbsp;Himalayas

http://yaleglobal.yale.edu/content/forgotten-war-himalayas

Jeff M. Smith 9/14/2012 YaleGlobal Online

Historical perspective: The US aided India in its 1962 war with China, 
taking firm stance on disputed border

India says talks on with China on Doklam standoff

http://www.livemint.com/Politics/OkxM8nbFR36GkOWm2Et0SM/India-China-border-standoff-Beijing-says-its-restraint-has.html

Elizabeth Roche 8/5/2017 Livemint How Long Can China and India Avoid War 
in the Himalayas?

http://foreignpolicy.com/2017/08/02/how-long-can-china-and-india-avoid-war-in-the-himalayas/

Sameer Lalwani , Yun Sun , Liv Dowling 8/2/2017 Foreign Policy 
India-China standoff: As war of words heightens, a look at trade between 
two countries in 10 charts

http://www.firstpost.com/business/india-china-standoff-as-war-of-words-heighten-a-look-at-trade-between-two-countries-in-10-charts-3892963.html

Kishor Kadam 8/5/2017 First Post Is A China-Centric World Inevitable?

https://www.dropbox.com/s/rk2sayz3nydhbbw/170720%20Saran%20Lecture%2C%20Is%20A%20China-Centric%20World%20Inevitable.doc?dl=0

Saran 7/20/2017 India international Centre China, and Chinese history, 
from an Indian perspective. Fosun's India plans catch wrong kind of 
attention

https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/AC/Fosun-s-India-plans-catch-wrong-kind-of-attention?utm_source=NAR%20Newsletter&utm_campaign=RN%20Subscriber%20newsletter&utm_medium=daily%20newsletter&utm_content=article%20link

Joyce Ho and Yasufumi Tsuge 8/2/2017 Nikkei Asian Review

India

India lowers interest rate after economic slowdown

https://www.ft.com/content/878d2066-776d-11e7-90c0-90a9d1bc9691

Amy Kazmin 8/2/2017 FT India coal growth has slowed significantly since 
2015

http://energydesk.greenpeace.org/2017/08/02/india-coal-growth-slows/

Ashish Fernandes 8/2/2017 EnergyDesk Greenpeace Is Abenomics too late to 
the Modinomics party?

http://www.livemint.com/Opinion/Suti4Optik2kaW5SYedxXJ/Is-Abenomics-too-late-to-the-Modinomics-party.html

William Pesek 8/4/2017 Livemint Desi GPS NavIC Comes Closer To Becoming 
Operational, ISRO And CSIR-NPL To Sign MoU

http://www.indiatimes.com/news/india/desi-gps-navic-comes-closer-to-becoming-operational-isro-and-csir-npl-to-sign-mou-327161.html

Vishwa Mohan 8/4/2017 India Times

China

China's macroeconomic balancing act

http://www.eastasiaforum.org/2017/07/23/chinas-macroeconomic-balancing-act/

Yiping Huang, Yan Shen and Quizi Fu 7/23/2017 East Asia Forum

China remains the only major emerging market economy that has not 
experienced a serious financial crisis.

Winter is Coming for Chinese Mega Deals, But Chinese FDI Isn't Going 
Away

https://macropolo.org/winter-coming-chinese-mega-deals-chinese-fdi-isnt-going-away/

Joy Dantong Ma 7/21/2017 Macro Polo A Brief Glimpse Into the Lives of 
Chinese Bitcoin Miners

https://news.bitcoin.com/brief-glimpse-lives-chinese-bitcoin-miners/

Jamie Redman 7/17/2017 Bitcoin.com

U.S.

What Recovery? The Case for Continued Expansionary Policy at the Fed

http://rooseveltinstitute.org/what-recovery/

J.W. Mason 7/25/2017 Roosevelt Institute Linking demand & productivity. 
Chart of the day: US oil production is rising and could hit a new 
all-time record high by early next year

https://www.aei.org/publication/chart-of-the-day-us-oil-production-could-hit-a-new-all-time-high-record-by-september/

Mark J. Perry 7/20/2017 AEI What 'Flash Boys' Brad Katsuyama thinks is 
killing Wall Street trade

http://www.marketwatch.com/video/sectorwatch/what-flash-boys-brad-katsuyama-thinks-is-killing-wall-street-trade/A4906B47-64BB-427D-984D-404A2BB597E7.html

MarketWatch 7/24/2017 Video Do you know how Michigan regulates jobs?

http://www.mackinac.org/features/quiz.2017.07.aspx

Mackinac Center for Public Policy 2017 A house painter and a pilot 
require the same number of hours of training in Michigan. Ancient 
regulations are a drag on labor & occupational mobility across US.

World

A round-up of money trends in the main nations

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_a4t2-ncowU&feature=youtu.be

Tim Congdon July 2017 Institute of International Monetary Research Video 
UK-based Inst. of Int'l Monetary Research says despite BIS, China's debt 
not a problem. Money Supply Growth Falls Again, Dropping To 105-Month 
Low

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4089319-money-supply-growth-falls-dropping-105-month-low

Ryan McMaken 7/21/2017 SeekingAlpha

Putin passes law that will ban VPNs in Russia

https://techcrunch.com/2017/07/30/putin-passes-law-that-will-ban-vpns-in-russia/

Catherine Shu 7/31/2017 TechCrunch VPN's are being banned in Russia too, 
not just in China. Remember when we thought that the Internet would end 
censorship and overcome control of information flows? 11 facts about 
world population you might not know

https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2017/07/11-facts-about-world-population-you-might-not-know/?utm_content=bufferacbd7&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer

Alex Gray 7/4/2017 World Economic Forum

Global population growth is wildly uneven. Africa has the healthiest 
demographic profile for economic growth.

TEPCO chair: Treated water must be released into sea

http://www.asahi.com/ajw/articles/AJ201707140020.html

Asahi Shimbun 7/14/2017 I'm sticking with Atlantic salmon. Radioactive 
Fukushima plant water "must be released into sea." Manufacturing & 
Supply Chains Subsiding Headwinds from the Strong Dollar: Evidence from 
Producer Prices along the Supply Chain

https://www.kansascityfed.org/publications/research/mb/articles/2017/subsiding-headwinds-strong-dollar

George A. Kahn and Nicholas Sly 7/13/2017 Fed Reserve Bank of Kansas 
City A weaker dollar is easing inflation headwinds along the supply 
chain. Measuring and analyzing the impact of GVCs on economic 
development

https://www.brookings.edu/research/measuring-and-analyzing-the-impact-of-gvcs-on-economic-development/?utm_campaign=John%20L.%20Thornton%20China%20Center&utm_source=hs_email&utm_medium=email&utm_content=54661489

Brookings 7/10/2017

The impact of Global Value Chains on economic development- especially 
China.

Manufacturing innovation key to EM break out growth

https://www.ft.com/content/05f10e30-6199-11e7-8814-0ac7eb84e5f1

Louis Kuijs 7/21/2017 FT FinTech Bitcoin: Fake Asset or Security?

https://www.theinstitutionalriskanalyst.com/single-post/2017/07/26/Bitcoin-Fake-Asset-or-Security

R. Christopher Whalen 7/26/2017 Institutional Risk Analyst Initial Coin 
Offerings: A new capital market takes wing, but not without controversy

https://www.spglobal.com/our-insights/Initial-Coin-Offerings-A-new-capital-market-takes-wing-but-not-without-controversy.html

John Kingston, Eric Turner, Thomas Zakrzewski and James Rilett 7/17/2017 
S&P Global Cybersecurity's Next Frontier: 80+ Companies Using Artificial 
Intelligence To Secure The Future In One Infographic

https://www.cbinsights.com/research/cybersecurity-artificial-intelligence-startups-market-map/

CBInsights Research Briefs 6/9/2017

Cybersecurity is the next utility.

ECONVUE RESEARCH

Recent Happenings in India

https://econvue.com/pulse/recent-happenings-india

Deepak Lalwani

https://econvue.com/experts/deepak-lalwani

Solar tariffs tumbled to a new low in May when SBK Cleantech bid Rs. 2.4 
per unit for building a solar park in Rajasthan. Solar power companies 
bid for the right to build projects on a land set aside by the 
government for solar projects. The companies awarded the projects are 
leased land at a nominal price – in return for the company selling power 
at the lowest price per kilowatt hour. Despite tariffs going lower 
overseas investors searching for higher yields are keen on such dollar 
bond issues. PM Modi's commitment to dramatically raise renewable energy 
output gives important comfort to investors. July 7 India Report

https://econvue.com/reports/deepak-lalwani/july-7-india-report

Deepak Lalwani

https://econvue.com/experts/deepak-lalwani

(Subscription content) India has long maintained a non-aligned status 
and for several decades, under Arab pressure, kept its distance. 
However, India now sees a mutually beneficially relationship with Israel 
across several fronts. Data Round-Up: Vehicle Sales Continue to 
Underwhelm

https://econvue.com/reports/michael-lewis/data-round-vehicle-sales-continue-underwhelm

Michael Lewis

https://econvue.com/experts/michael-lewis

(Subscription content) FMI's review of July Vehicle Sales. One driver of 
the recent retrenchment appears to be reduced fleet sales to car rental 
agencies. GM et al call this a strategic decision to focus on 
higher-margin products but, mathematically, the demand for new fleet 
vehicles is down as well

FOMC: Shrinkage Should Start in September

http://econvue.com/reports/michael-lewis/fomc-shrinkage-should-start-september

Michael Lewis

https://econvue.com/experts/michael-lewis

(Subscription content)

FMI's commentary on today's FOMC post-meeting. No surprises. As 
universally expected, the FOMC left the funds target rate unchanged 
today after raising rates in March and June.

IMF: The Global Economic Recovery is on Solid Ground

http://econvue.com/pulse/imf-global-economic-recovery-solid-ground

Karim Pakravan

https://econvue.com/experts/karim-pakravan

The IMF's message in its latest global economic forecasts (World 
Economic Outlook, 7/24/2017) is broadly unchanged from its April 
version. The global economic recovery is gaining momentum and broadening 
in 2017, after a two-year slowdown. Global output is expected to grow by 
respectively 3.5% and 3.6% this year and next. FinTech Investment Soars

https://econvue.com/pulse/fintech-investment-soars

Collin Canright

https://econvue.com/experts/collin-canright

Financial technology startups are on pace to see funding reach a record 
as insurance, wealth management, lending and blockchain-related 
companies attract new dollars," reports Bloomberg. Technology research 
firm CBInsights, New York, shows in its Q2 2017 Global FinTech report 
that FinTech firms have raised some $8 billion in the first half of this 
year in 496 deals globally.

With all best wishes,

Lyric Hughes Hale

Editor-in-Chief

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