Subject: EconVue Spotlight August 24, 2017 | Jackson Hole "Fostering a Dynamic Global Economy"
From: "Lyric Hughes Hale" <[email-masked]>
To: "R. Hunter Biden" <[email-masked]>
Date: Thu, 24 Aug 2017 17:40:43 -0700 (PDT)

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EconVue Spotlight

Dear R. Hunter,

The Federal Reserve Board of Kansas City's annual economic symposium has 
begun in Jackson Hole this evening. The agenda for this year's meeting 
"Fostering a Dynamic Global Economy" has just become available and may 
be found here

https://www.kansascityfed.org/publications/research/escp/symposiums/escp-2017

. The purpose of the symposium is to discuss emerging economic theories 
and policy prescriptives, but in times of economic uncertainty it 
assumes another dimension. Both the Federal Reserve and the European 
Central Bank have recently announced plans to reverse quantitative 
easing, and markets are keen to know details. I doubt there will be any 
startling announcements prior to their respective September meetings. 
Beyond the speeches, the real work of the conference will be on the 
sidelines, as central bankers from around the world have multiple 
opportunities to speak informally about the challenges they face. 
Bleeding-edge monetary policy since the Financial Crisis has failed to 
achieve a robust recovery, and some might argue, has delayed it. None of 
the papers as outlined in the agenda appear to be directly focused on 
monetary policy, but instead look to solutions based on competitive 
markets, global trade, fiscal stimulus, and balanced growth. Many had 
hoped post-election that fiscal stimulus, monetary easing's twin, would 
have taken on some of this burden. Stymied by a lack of political 
consensus, US infrastructure spending has decreased and in 1H 2017 it 
was only 1.4% of GDP, the lowest level on record. Productivity in the 
construction industry for example, has halved since 1960. International 
trade has slowed and income inequality has worsened. In an ultra-low 
interest rate environment, why has growth faltered, while debt has 
increased markedly? What can be done to make growth more equitable and 
balanced? These are the topics on the Jackson Hole agenda over the next 
several days. I will be analyzing individual papers as they are 
presented and will post links and my comments on Twitter @lyrichues

https://twitter.com/lyrichues?lang=en

.

STORIES IN OUR SPOTLIGHT

U.S.

USD: Jackson Hole Symposium to mark the end of the lull - BBH

https://www.fxstreet.com/news/usd-jackson-hole-symposium-to-mark-the-end-of-the-lull-bbh-201708210409

Sandeep Kanihama 8/ 21/2017 FX Street Is it the job of central banks to 
"foster a dynamic global economy"- or provide stability? Not much more 
stimulus they can supply. Stanley Fischer, Fed vice-chair, on the risky 
business of bank reform

https://www.ft.com/content/e7a9869c-819f-11e7-94e2-c5b903247afd

Sam Fleming 8/15/2017 FT Remarkable interview with Stan Fischer: US not 
an anchor but a source of volatility, uncomfortable with rapid rise of 
equities & deregulation. Public Works Funding Falls as Infrastructure 
Deteriorates

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/08/08/us/politics/infrastructure-trump.html?smid=tw-share

Binyamin Appelbaum 8/8/2017 NY Times So infrastructure spending in the 
US is actually falling. 6 reasons Congress shouldn't have any trouble 
passing tax reform

http://thehill.com/blogs/pundits-blog/economy-budget/345608-norquist-six-reasons-congress-should-be-able-to-pass-tax

Grover Norquist 8/7/2017 The Hill See Reason #5. The 2018 election. Does 
Import Competition Induce R&amp;D Reallocation? Evidence from the U.S.

https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3013441

Kaiji Gong and Rui Xu 8/10/2017 SSRN Walmart reveals the most bizarre 
top seller in every state

http://www.businessinsider.com/walmart-top-sellers-in-every-state-2017-8

Hayley Peterson and Skye Gould 8/16/2017 Business Insider This is 
fascinating. Find your own favorite state, but the best seller in 
Illinois is puzzle storage. World When easy money 
stops:&nbsp;Normalising credit policies will strain system

https://www.omfif.org/analysis/commentary/2017/august/when-easy-money-stops/?utm_source=OMFIFupdate

Desmond Lachman 8/23/2017 OMFIF How a German court opinion could speed 
up the end of quantitative easing in Europe. Is Productivity Growth 
Becoming Irrelevant?

https://www.ineteconomics.org/perspectives/blog/is-productivity-growth-becoming-irrelevant#.WY8QFzsR8Dg.twitter

Adair Turner 7/21/2017 INET Economics Is productivity growth at odds 
with human welfare? The new dynamics of financial globalization

http://www.mckinsey.com/industries/financial-services/our-insights/the-new-dynamics-of-financial-globalization

McKinsey Global Institute August 2017 The neoliberal road to autocracy

http://www.ips-journal.eu/opinion/article/show/the-neoliberal-road-to-autocracy-2046/

Ann Pettifor 5/17/2017 Int Politics & Society Absolute poverty has been 
falling since 1820, most likely due to medical advances. Biggest decline 
was from 1950-1970. As Japan looks for river of foreign talent, 
landlords erect a dam

https://asia.nikkei.com/Japan-Update/As-Japan-looks-for-river-of-foreign-talent-landlords-erect-a-dam?n_cid=NARAN11&utm_source=NAR%20Newsletter&utm_campaign=RN%20Subscriber%20newsletter&utm_medium=daily%20newsletter&utm_content=article%20link

Tsubasa Suraga 8/23/2017 Nikkei Asian Weekly

China

China's Property Slowdown Means Peak of Growth Cycle Has Passed

https://www.bloomberg.com/amp/news/articles/2017-08-14/the-most-important-sector-in-the-universe-is-now-losing-steam

Bloomberg News 8/14/17 Xi loyalists grab the reins of pivotal projects

https://asia.nikkei.com/Features/China-up-close/Xi-loyalists-grab-the-reins-of-pivotal-projects?n_cid=NARAN012

Katsuji Nakazawa 8/16/2017 Nikkei Asian Weekly China Expected to Step Up 
Use of Natural Gas

http://www.caixinglobal.com/2017-08-18/101132543.html?cxg=web&Sfrom=twitter

Luo Guoping and Fran Wang 8/18/2017 Caixin Demand for coal and oil will 
fall, pollution becomes political metric. The "One Belt, One Road" 
project and the implications of Central Asia's water crisis

http://www.globalwaterforum.org/2017/08/17/q-a-the-one-belt-one-road-project-and-the-implications-of-central-asias-water-crisis/

Jesper Svensson 8/17/2017 Global Water Forum

ECONVUE RESEARCH

Data Round-Up:&nbsp;Fed Regional Surveys Are Upbeat for August

https://econvue.com/reports/michael-lewis/data-round-fed-regional-surveys-are-upbeat-august

Michael Lewis

https://econvue.com/experts/michael-lewis

FMI's analyses of this morning's August Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing 
Index, July Industrial Production report and the latest Weekly UI Claims 
and Rail Traffic results. Pay Attention or Pay the Consequences: 
Investing in China

http://www.econvue.com/pulse/pay-attention-or-pay-consequences-investing-china

Marsha Vande Berg

https://econvue.com/experts/marsha-vande-berg

It doesn't matter if the corporate governance is black or white, when it 
concerns Chinese companies -- stated owned or privately-held -- 
investors' due diligence is the only game worth playing. FinTech Waves

http://www.econvue.com/pulse/fintech-waves

Collin Canright

https://econvue.com/experts/collin-canright

Th is week's headline comes from a Bernard Lunn Daily FinTech column, in 
which he charts three "waves" of FinTech development. Those waves fit my 
own experience, though some of the milestones I would have picked are 
different. I spent a lot of time this week looking at bank websites. 
That, too, was a look back in time. No doubt that colored the links I 
picked. I see in them the tension between the entrenched technology of 
the past and emerging tech of the fut ure. I

https://econvue.com/pulse/india-celebrates-70-years-independence

ndia Celebrates 70 Years of Independence

https://econvue.com/pulse/india-celebrates-70-years-independence

Deepak Lalwani&nbsp;

https://econvue.com/experts/deepak-lalwani

De epak's latest commentary on India's political and economic status 
while celebrating its 70 years of independence. He concludes that " 
Despite future challenges and the journey ahead inevitably being filled 
with bumps, it is felt with optimism that the best is yet to come for 
Indi a." The Collapse of Venezuela and Its Impact on the Region

https://econvue.com/pulse/collapse-venezuela-and-its-impact-region

R. Evan Ellis

https://econvue.com/experts/r-evan-ellis

Th e situation in Venezuela is often mistakenly diagnosed as principally 
a political or economic crisis. It is better understood as a criminal 
act without precedent in Latin America: the capture and systematic 
looting of a state, achieved by first capturing its institutions through 
mass mobilization and bureaucratic machinations, then increasing control 
of the state through military force, as the criminal nature of the act 
and its consequences become apparent to the nation's citizen s. Japan's 
corporate governance stymies sustainable investing

https://www.ft.com/content/3b4c34d0-7c0e-11e7-9108-edda0bcbc928

Nicholas Benes

https://econvue.com/experts/nicholas-benes

EconVue expert Nicholas Benes recent article in the FT: Many asset 
owners have not been mobilised to hold boards and executives 
accountable.

With all best wishes,

Lyric Hughes Hale

Editor-in-Chief

Econvue.com
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"What's Next? Unconventional Wisdom on the Future of the Global Economy"
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