Subject: POLITICO's Morning Score: Senate Democrats hold on to majority hopes — Trott latest GOP retirement — End Citizens United builds case for campaign finance reform
From: "Morning Score" <[email-masked]>
To: <[email-masked]>
Date: Tue, 12 Sep 2017 08:02:22 -0600
List-Id: <1376319_7007912.xt.local>

By Kevin Robillard | 09/12/2017 10:00 AM EDT

With Zach Montellaro, Elena Schneider and Daniel Strauss
 
The following newsletter is an abridged version of Campaign Pro's Morning Score. For an earlier morning read on exponentially more races - and for a more comprehensive aggregation of the day's most important campaign news - sign up for Campaign Pro today. (http://www.politicopro.com/proinfo)
 
DEMS DREAM OF MAJORITIES - "Senate Democrats hold on to majority hopes," by Kevin Robillard and Gabriel Debenedetti: "Reelecting red-state Democratic incumbents is still the top priority for Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer and Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee Chairman Chris Van Hollen. But they have also begun investigating opportunities to play offense on GOP turf, polling and investigating potential candidates in states like Texas, Tennessee and Alabama with the Republican Party facing a tough national environment. The Democratic effort began well before a recent burst of bad news for Senate Republicans. ... 'Our priority is to make sure that we win all our incumbent races,'
 Van Hollen said in an interview. Then, 'we have great pickup opportunities in Nevada and Arizona,' he continued. 'And we have good candidates in other states, and we're going to have more. We're going to work to maximize our opportunities.' Much of the insistence is for donors' benefit, said a handful of top party operatives: Closing the door on flipping a chamber will make it much harder to raise cash in 2018, especially with House Democrats smelling opportunity to win back the majority there. ... Winning back the Senate would essentially require Democrats to draw a straight flush, followed by four-of-a-kind." Full story.
 
- "GOP senators push back against Bannon's effort to dislodge incumbents," by Seung Min Kim: "Concerned about retaining their fragile majority, GOP senators said in interviews Monday that Bannon's nascent effort would further damage the prospects of keeping control of the Senate. Republicans are already in the middle of a cycle in which some senators have been trying to fend off primary challengers, even before Bannon's meddling. 'I wish he'd focus on Democrats. Circular firing squads don't work very well,' Sen. John Cornyn of Texas, the majority whip and two-time chairman of the party's Senate campaign arm, said in an interview Monday. ... The threats emanating from Bannon are especially
 potent because conservative primary challengers to Republican incumbents are essentially the only way that Democrats, who now control 48 seats, could create a path to a Senate majority. ... 'I always make it a point not to get into the middle of Republican civil wars,' Sen. Chris Van Hollen of Maryland, chairman of the DSCC, said Monday. 'So I'll leave it to them.'" Full story.
 
- "Republican Sen. Bob Corker weighs whether to retire in 2018," by CNN's Manu Raju: "Tennessee Sen. Bob Corker, the influential chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee who was once considered for a spot in President Donald Trump's Cabinet, is weighing whether to call it quits next year. Corker told CNN last week that he has not made a decision about his future, and appeared to confirm Trump's tweet that he asked the president for political advice about whether to run for reelection. 'As far as what am I going to do in the future, I'm still contemplating the future,' Corker said in an interview. 'It's a tremendous privilege to do what I do, and to weigh in on the big issues. ...
 But I have not decided what I'm going to do in the future.'" Full story. 
 
HOT TO TROTT OUT OF CONGRESS - "Michigan Rep. Dave Trott won't run for reelection," by Campaign Pro's Elena Schneider: "Michigan Rep. Dave Trott said Monday that he would not seek reelection, making him the third Republican incumbent in the past week to vacate a potential battleground district ahead of the 2018 midterm elections. ... Trump carried Trott's seat in suburban Detroit by just under 5 points in 2016. Before Trott's announcement, Democrats were already eyeing his seat. Democrat Haley Stevens, a digital manufacturing executive who served as chief of staff to then-President Barack Obama's Auto Task Force, decided to challenge Trott in April. ... Republicans in the state said they
 expect a bloody primary to replace Trott. 'It would be very difficult for someone to clear the field because of the various factions here,' said Dennis Lennox, a Republican consultant in Michigan. 'But if there is an A-list candidate in the race, we should know by next week.' Republicans floated several potential candidates, including state Rep. Klint Kesto, state Rep. Laura Cox and Mike Bouchard, who ran for Senate in 2006." Full story. 
 
- More names: Republican also mentioned state Sen. Marty Knollenberg and state Sen. Mike Kowall. Meanwhile, Democrats already have their own primary, including Stevens and another Obama administration alum, Fayrouz Saad. Daniel Haberman, a local businessman, is also "considering" and is "likely to run," per a source familiar with the candidate's thinking. 
 
FRONTIERS OF CAMPAIGN ISSUES - "End Citizens United builds a case - and trove of data - for reform campaigns," by Campaign Pro's Maggie Severns: "End Citizens United has a message for Democrats seeking a 2018 message: Don't forget about campaign finance reform. And the progressive PAC is touting polling that shows it could be a big help with independent voters in the midterm elections. The trove of information collected through polls and focus groups, shared exclusively with POLITICO, makes the case that well-crafted messages on money in politics tie into so-called kitchen table issues, like jobs and health care, that are most critical to the voters who have been slipping out of Democrats'
 fold. Critically, independent voters indicated they care deeply about curbing the influence of special interests, End Citizens United has found. In a new poll of 50 top House battleground districts in early September, for example, independent voters ranked reducing the role of special interests behind only one other issue - national security - in terms of importance. That finding was consistent with other national and state polling End Citizens United conducted in the past year and a half. 'Can we actually win races on this? Obviously, what our polling shows is, yes we can,' End Citizens United President Tiffany Muller said in an interview. 'We need to win races by winning independent
 voters and unaffiliated voters and non-college voters back on our side. And this issue moves them.'" Full story.
 
Days until the 2017 election: 56. 
 
Days until the 2018 election: 420. 
 
Thanks for joining us! You can email tips to the Campaign Pro team at [email-masked], [email-masked], [email-masked], [email-masked] and [email-masked].
 
You can also follow us on Twitter: @politicoscott, @ec_schneider, @politicokevin, @danielstrauss4 and @maggieseverns. 
 
2020 WATCH - "Liberals dominate Democrats' 2020 jockeying," by Gabriel Debenedetti: "[T]he lion's share of activity among potential 2020 hopefuls so far is on the progressive end of the Democratic spectrum - an indication of a broader ideological swing in a party struggling to be seen as more populist. ... 'Of the names being talked about - [California Sen. Kamala] Harris, [Los Angeles Mayor Eric] Garcetti, [Connecticut Sen. Chris] Murphy, [New York Sen. Kirsten] Gillibrand, and a long list of others - almost all have staked out positions on Medicare for all, immigration and the economy, which are more progressive than any Democratic nominee since 1972,' said Howard Dean, a former Vermont
 governor and Democratic National Committee chairman who ran for president as a liberal insurgent in 2004. 'It's about damn time,' added retired Iowa Sen. Tom Harkin, the liberal stalwart who ran for president in 1992." Full story.
 
- Brown won't co-sponsor Sanders' single-payer bill: Ohio Sen. Sherrod Brown said Monday he wouldn't sign on as a co-sponsor to Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders' single-payer bill. Most other potential 2020 contenders, including Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren, New Jersey Sen. Cory Booker and California Sen. Kamala Harris, have signed on. Brown said he'll instead focus on building support for a bill to allow Medicare buy-in at age 55. He adds: "I have always been supportive of Medicare for all."
 
2018 WATCH - "Rick Scott: In the eye of the storm," by Matt Dixon, Marc Caputo and Bruce Ritchie: "While millions of Floridians are now dealing with flooding and power outages, Scott's preparation and response to the storm - a logistical nightmare that affected nearly every inch of the nation's third largest state - have so far won praise. ... He's had a nearly ubiquitous television presence, providing constant storm updates while overseeing one of the largest regional evacuations in U.S. history - and he's leaned heavily on his close relationship with President Donald Trump, whom he vocally supported in 2016. The two spoke daily as the storm approached. ... Scott's role in the Hurricane
 Irma drama comes as he considers whether to heed Trump's pleas and challenge Sen. Bill Nelson, a Democrat up for reelection next year - and a successful Irma response could bolster a potential Scott 2018 campaign. ... In 2004 and 2005, then-Gov. Jeb Bush saw his approval ratings skyrocket in Florida after eight hurricanes swiped the state. ... 'They won't admit it publicly, but I can tell you Scott's team is thrilled by the free media exposure. You can't pay for that type of coverage, even if you're as rich as Rick,' said one Republican consultant who has ties to the governor's advisers." Full story.
 
- "Calley plans town halls as Schuette preps barbecue," by the Detroit News' Jonathan Oosting: "Lt. Gov. Brian Calley will host town hall meetings across Michigan in October and November before making a final decision on whether he'll run for governor. Plans for the town hall tour are taking shape amid speculation that Republican Attorney General Bill Schuette is preparing to announce his campaign for governor, potentially as early as Tuesday night at his annual mid-Michigan barbecue in Midland. ... While Republican insiders believe he could use the venue to announce his campaign for governor, Schuette's political team has not divulged any details beyond a generic media advisory inviting
 reporters to the event." Full story.
 
YOUR DAILY MENENDEZ - "An expensive grill and a Brazilian actress: Day 3 of the Menendez trial," by Matt Friedman: "When one of Florida eye doctor Salomon Melgen's girlfriends handed her interviewer at the U.S. consulate in the Dominican Republic a letter from U.S. Sen. Robert Menendez in support of her 2008 visa application, the interviewer wasn't impressed. ... Menendez said in a 2010 email that he would reimburse his friend, Florida eye doctor Salomon Melgen, for the nearly 650,000 American Express points Melgen used to purchase a three-night stay at a hotel in Paris for the senator - as soon as Menendez accumulated enough points himself. But it would have taken Menendez about 30 years
 to accumulate those points at the rate he was spending then, an American Express executive testified at Menendez's corruption trial. And three years later, when Menendez for the first time redeemed his own American Express points - more than 135,000 of them - he used them instead to purchase a high-end grill that was shipped to New Jersey, according to the witness." Full story. 
 
PRIMARY CONCERNS - Fitzgerald won't run for Wisconsin Senate, backs Vukmir: Wisconsin Senate Majority Leader Scott Fitzgerald said Monday he wouldn't enter the GOP primary to challenge Democratic Sen. Tammy Baldwin, and endorsed fellow state Sen. Leah Vukmir with a not-so-subtle shot at her primary rival, Kevin Nicholson. "I would like to express my complete support for Sen. Leah Vukmir, an actual conservative," Fitzgerald said. "She is an exceptional leader, one of the best Wisconsin has to offer, so I am choosing not to run for the U.S. Senate knowing we are in great hands."
 
ON THE AIRWAVES - AAN puts additional $2.5M into boosting tax reform: American Action Network, a nonprofit with ties to House GOP leadership, is spending an additional $2.5 million in 23 congressional districts to boost tax reform. The ad features a couple from Wisconsin discussing how the tax code is too complicated and how a tax cut would help them. Here's a list of the districts. Watch the ad here.
 
QUOTE OF THE DAY: "People think Citizens United is an insurance company. That's what they talk about in focus groups." - End Citizens United President Tiffany Muller
 
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