Subject: EconVue Spotlight October 1, 2017 | What's Next for The World Economy
From: "Lyric Hughes Hale" <[email-masked]>
To: "R. Hunter Biden" <[email-masked]>
Date: Sun, 1 Oct 2017 12:32:46 -0700 (PDT)

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EconVue Spotlight

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Dear R. Hunter,

Last Sunday I gave a speech at the Adlai Stevenson Center on Democracy. 
The center website 

http://www.stevensoncenterondemocracy.org/

quotes Adlai Stevenson, who twice ran for president in the 1950's: "A 
free society is a society in which it is safe to be unpopular." Never 
was that more true or more apt than today.

My speech was an attempt to discuss whether or not today's global 
economy is operating on an entirely new set of rules. I spoke about the 
trend towards localization that is unfolding at all levels, from 
government to media, and the puzzles of inflation and productivity.

I'm afraid I shocked my audience with some demographic statistics. Some 
examples: by 2150, Nigeria will replace the United States as the third 
most populous nation By 2100, Africa will be home to almost 40% of the 
world's population.

I hope you enjoy the articles below, which focus on these and other 
issues. If you have any questions or would like to engage further with 
our EconVue experts, please don't hesitate to contact us.

RESEARCH BY ECONVUE EXPERTS

A New GOP Nightmare: Trump and Democrats Cut a Deal on Taxes&nbsp;

https://econvue.com/pulse/new-gop-nightmare-trump-and-democrats-cut-deal-taxes

Robert Shapiro

https://econvue.com/experts/robert-shapiro

Since Democrats typically favor more federal spending, their traditional 
wish-list on taxes is heavy on ways to raise revenues rather than 
options for cutting them. That predilection could provide a basis for 
another agreement of convenience: Cut taxes the way that President Trump 
wants, and pay for it the way that Democrats want. FMI October 2017 
Economic &amp; Investment Outlook

https://econvue.com/reports/michael-lewis/fmi-october-2017-economic-investment-outlook

Michael Lewis

https://econvue.com/experts/michael-lewis

The ‘Trump' Fed: New Faces, New Chair(?), Same Policy; March to ‘Normal' 
Policy to Continue under Yellen or Her Successor, Even If Inflation 
Remains Below Target; Expect Four More Rate Hikes by End of 2018. (FMI 
Sees Both Inflation & Real Growth Beating Fed's Outlook – Four Hikes is 
the Lower Bound); Fed Chair Race: Warsh Surges, Yellen Still a 
Contender. New Era of Mutual Learning for China and Singapore

https://econvue.com/pulse/new-era-mutual-learning-china-and-singapore

Xi Sun

https://econvue.com/experts/xi-sun

Nowadays, China's focal areas for learning from Singapore have gone far 
beyond economic development to mainly social governance, such as 
Singapore's advanced urban planning and environmental management, 
housing and social security system, state-owned enterprise management 
and anti-corruption system. The Strategic Context of China's Advance in 
Latin America: An Update

https://econvue.com/pulse/strategic-context-chinas-advance-latin-america-update

R. Evan Ellis

https://econvue.com/experts/r-evan-ellis

This brief article gives an overview of the expansion of Chinese 
activities and influence across the region in military, commercial and 
other areas, with an emphasis on the acceleration of such engagement and 
PRC assertion of initiative toward the region during the past year, an 
analysis of declared and implicit PRC strategic objectives, and the 
principle vehicles that the PRC has used in pursuing them, concluding 
with a discussion of the strategic implications for the United States. 
Going Digital

https://econvue.com/pulse/going-digital

Collin Canright

https://econvue.com/experts/collin-canright

Three reports this week show how incumbent financial institutions 
grapple with going digital. Taking the certainties of studies at face 
value: 1. Bank branches will continue to add value to customers while 
incorporating more technology 2. Insurers will accelerate investments in 
digital technologies 3. Central banks will face a decision on whether to 
issue cryptocurrencies

STORIES IN OUR SPOTLIGHT

Central Banking Central Bank Quantitative Easing as an Emerging 
Political Liability

https://ftalphaville.ft.com/2017/09/19/2193960/guest-post-central-bank-quantitative-easing-as-an-emerging-political-liability/

FT 9/19/2017 Mind the Wealth Gap

https://www.wsj.com/articles/torrys-take-mind-the-wealth-gap-1506682426?mod=e2twcb

Harriet Torry 9/29/2017 WSJ

Are the Fed's low-interest-rate policies making wealth inequality worse 
and crimping the U.S. economy? Lael Brainard might think so. Enhancing 
the Wealth of Nations: Gold and Sovereign Wealth Funds

https://www.gold.org/research/gold-and-sovereign-wealth-funds

World Gold Council 9/27/2017 Here is a More Granular Breakout of 
Inflation by Category. Huge Divergences

https://twitter.com/HayekAndKeynes/status/909673018078695424

The Long View 9/17/2017 Twitter

Inflation: goods vs services in one chart. The Next Downturn? Economist 
Adam Posen is Changing His View on When the Next US Recession will Hit

https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2017/09/26/economist-adam-posens-view-on-when-the-next-us-recession-will-hit.html

Luke Graham 9/26/2017 CNBC Path to the Next Financial Crisis

https://www.omfif.org/analysis/commentary/2017/september/path-to-the-next-financial-crisis/

Miroslav Singer 9/26/2017 OMIFF

The next disturbance could emanate from a sector that few regulators 
either oversee or understand. So What Did the Great Recession Teach Us 
About the Power of Public Spending? Revisiting Paul Krugman

https://www.cfr.org/blog/so-what-did-great-recession-teach-us-about-power-public-spending-revisiting-paul-krugman

Benn Steil 9/22/2017 CFR Common sense: the government cannot spend its 
way to prosperity with borrowed money. But this is the opposite of what 
was discussed at Jackson Hole. The Next Crisis Will Start in Silicon 
Valley

https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2017-09-18/the-next-crisis-will-start-in-silicon-valley

William Magnuson 9/18/2017 Bloomberg

Regulators always trail innovators. UBS: These 8 Housing Markets around 
the World are Closest to a Bubble

http://www.businessinsider.com/housing-bubble-risk-cities-ubs-2017-9/

Akin Oyedele 9/28/2017 Business Insider Fed-up Illinois homeowners 
consider moving

http://www.chicagotribune.com/business/ct-biz-homeowners-leaving-illinois-20170919-story.html

Gail MarksJarvis and Corilyn Shropshire 9/29/2017 Chicago Tribune Only 
7,511 single-family homes were built in the Chicago metro area during 
the 12 months ending with July. Asia Japan Opposition Leader: Unite 
behind Koike

https://asia.nikkei.com/Spotlight/Abe-s-snap-election/Japan-opposition-leader-Unite-behind-Koike

Masayuki Yuda 9/28/2017 Nikkei Asian Review

Japan has a snap election coming up. Will Abe, like Teresa May regret 
his decision? Yuriko Koike, Japan's Party of Hope, Political Ad

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=B4c2KZ-f-P8&feature=youtu.be

YouTube Video link 2017 Who would have ever thought that Japan could 
have a female head of government before the US? Stunning television ad, 
h/t Nicholas Benes

https://econvue.com/experts/nicholas-benes

U.S.-China mission rushes bomb-grade nuclear fuel out of Africa

http://www.sciencemag.org/news/2017/08/us-china-mission-rushes-bomb-grade-nuclear-fuel-out-africa

Richard Stone 8/31/2017 Science Magazine Great story about US-China 
cooperation. but where does the fuel go? The Anatomy of a Bankrupt State 
Firm's Liquidation

https://macropolo.org/anatomy-bankrupt-state-firms-liquidation/

Dinny McMahon 9/26/2017 Macro Polo CFIUS, Chinese Investment, and How to 
Improve Both

http://www.aei.org/publication/cfius-chinese-investment-and-how-to-improve-both/

Derek Scissors 9/18/2017 AEI

As China develops its own technologies and processes, it should follow 
Japan's example with greenfield investments that employ US citizens. 
Europe

Merkel Lands Fourth Term, But at What Cost?

http://www.spiegel.de/international/germany/germany-angela-merkel-s-fourth-term-comes-at-high-price-a-1169632.html

Philipp Wittrock 9/25/2017 Spiegel Online Former BoE Governor Lord King 
Calls for the UK Govt to Walk Away: "The UK Has to be Ready to Leave and 
Trade on WTO Arrangements"

https://twitter.com/BrexitCentral/status/910514867324489729

Brexit Central 9/20/2017 Video

Sage advice from Mervyn King. UK not in a position to negotiate special 
treatment with an EU whose political objectives it does not share.

With all best wishes,

Lyric Hughes Hale

Editor-in-Chief

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My articles for Yale Books London
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"What's Next? Unconventional Wisdom on the Future of the Global Economy"
http://whatsnextbook.com/

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