Subject: EconVue Spotlight October 16, 2017
From: "Lyric Hughes Hale" <[email-masked]>
To: "R. Hunter Biden" <[email-masked]>
Date: Mon, 16 Oct 2017 14:36:24 -0700 (PDT)

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EconVue Spotlight

Dear R. Hunter,

It is always a happy occasion for me when Chicago wins another Nobel 
Prize. Richard Thaler's award represents continued recognition for 
behavioral economics. Always prescient EconVue expert Richard Katz

https://econvue.com/experts/richard-katz

interviewed Thaler ten years ago, and we revisit his excellent article 
for Toyo Keizai below. Now mainstream, there is not universal acclaim 
for behavioral economics. I recommend Kevin Bryan's blog on this 
subject, and especially the comments that follow. This week could be a 
watershed in Chinese history, although the inner workings of the 19 th 
National Party Congress are what I call an unknowable unknown, to be 
followed on by President Trump's visit to China in less than a month. 
Key issues to watch: continued sweeping changes

https://theconversation.com/expect-a-shakeup-of-chinas-military-elite-at-the-19th-party-congress-84060

in the People's Liberation Army, in the shadow of the continuing North 
Korean crisis, and de-privatization of business under the Chinese 
Communist Party. For an excellent overview of China's economic 
challenges and the state of their reform process, I've included a video 
of a panel I attended at the Asia Society in New York recently.

In Washington, I listened to former Fed governor Daniel Tarullo, himself 
a non-economist, talk about the possibility of a non-economist taking 
the helm at the Fed, as well as inflation expectations. Unconventional 
insight on this topic comes from Econvue expert Robert Pringle

https://econvue.com/experts/robert-pringle

in London regarding the failure of central banks to foresee the 
financial crisis ten years ago. He says that inflation targeting is a 
defacto global monetary standard. Finally, as an EconVue reader, we 
kindly ask you to participate in a short survey as part of a study at 
the Lake Forest Graduate School of Management regarding economic news. 
Your input would be appreciated. Here is a link: 
https://www.surveymonkey.com/r/8GHDBPL&nbsp;

https://www.surveymonkey.com/r/8GHDBPL

RESEARCH BY ECONVUE EXPERTS

Interviewing a Nobel Prize Winner

https://econvue.com/pulse/interviewing-nobel-prize-winner

Richard Katz

https://econvue.com/experts/richard-katz

One of the great pleasures of my career is that I've gotten to interview 
several Nobel Prize economists, Here's the beginning of an interview I 
conducted in 2007 with this year's winner, Richard Thaler. He was the 
inventor, along with psychologist Daniel Kahnemann, of "behavioral 
economics." This school recognizes that people are not Vulcan-like 
utility-maximizing rationalists, but human beings--a heresy in orthodox 
economics. At the time, Obama was looking into his views for economic 
advice. 10-Year Retrospective: Lessons of the Financial Crisis 1, 2, 
&amp; 3

https://econvue.com/pulse/10-year-retrospective-lesson-1

Robert Pringle

https://econvue.com/experts/robert-pringle

The lead-up to the crisis was marked by the near-universal adoption of 
inflation targeting. This became sacrosanct as the framework for 
monetary policy (implicit in the case of the Federal Reserve). It became 
the nearest we had to a global monetary standard.

Perhaps it is time for a new standard, rather than watching central 
banks around the world aim for and miss 2% inflation over and over 
again.

Blame the Economy for Widening Inequality – And Washington for Doing 
Little about It

https://econvue.com/pulse/blame-economy-widening-inequality-%E2%80%93-and-washington-doing-little-about-it

Robert Shapiro

https://econvue.com/experts/robert-shapiro

Ask the right questions, and the income data reveal a great deal about 
how this inequality took hold over the last 40 years. It is a given that 
the American economy and politics both changed dramatically over this 
period. But how did each of those forces affect the distribution of 
incomes? FMI Weekly Data Preview: October 16-20

https://econvue.com/reports/michael-lewis/fmi-weekly-data-preview-october-16-20

Michael Lewis

https://econvue.com/experts/michael-lewis

The week began on a reasonable note with the NY Fed' Empire 
manufacturing survey this morning. The headline index rose +6 points to 
30 in October, not far from the cycle-high. Washington Should Take Note 
of Chinese Advancement in Brazil

https://econvue.com/pulse/washington-should-take-note-chinese-advancement-brazil

R. Evan Ellis

https://econvue.com/experts/r-evan-ellis

While partly related to Brazil's size, it is of note that, largely 
unnoticed in Washington D.C., Brazil is one of the countries in Latin 
America where the most significant major Chinese commercial advances 
have occurred during the past year.

Washington's Weakening Hand In Iran

https://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/washingtons-weakening-hand-in-iran_us_59dcbe63e4b0208970cf96ec

Karim Pakravan

https://econvue.com/experts/karim-pakravan

and Kaveh Mirani HuffPost 10/10/2017 Collaboration: Blockchain

https://econvue.com/pulse/collaboration-blockchain

Collin Canright

https://econvue.com/experts/collin-canright

The implications in the wake of so many recent data breaches are self 
evident, and I believe all of these technologies will come together 
eventually. It will take time, money, and collaboration among private 
and, especially in areas like real estate, public entities. Given the 
outlook for government finances in the United States and the 
always-present forces to maintain current revenues from the technology 
status quo, it will be a long effort requiring considerable leadership.

STORIES IN OUR SPOTLIGHT

Nobel In addition to Richard Katz's interview above, a range of 
commentary on this year's award of the Bank of Sweden Prize in Economics 
in memory of Alfred Nobel. Richard Thaler is a Controversial Nobel Prize 
Winner – But a Deserving One

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/oct/11/richard-thaler-nobel-prize-winner-behavioural-economics?CMP=share_btn_tw

Robert Shiller 10/11/2017 The Guardian Hayek: For Humility and Against a 
Nobel Prize in Economics

http://conversableeconomist.blogspot.com/2016/10/hayek-for-humility-and-against-nobel.html

Timothy Taylor 10/10/2017 Conservable Economist

The 2017 Nobel: Richard Thaler

https://afinetheorem.wordpress.com/2017/10/09/the-2017-nobel-richard-thaler/

Kevin Bryan Blog 10/09/17 Univ of Toronto Rotman School of Management 
The number of behavioral anomalies at the level of the market which 
persist and are relevant in the aggregate do not strike me as large, 
while the number of investors and policymakers who make dreadful 
decisions because they believe markets are driven by behavioral 
sentiments is large indeed!

Federal Reserve Fed Economists' Stakes in Forecasting Firm Spur an 
Internal Probe

https://www.wsj.com/amp/articles/fed-economists-stakes-in-forecasting-firm-spur-an-internal-probe-1507645967

Katy Burne 10/10/2017 WSJ What were they thinking? Kevin Warsh, 
Candidate for Federal Reserve Chair, Is Not Even an Economist

http://www.weeklystandard.com/kevin-warsh-candidate-for-federal-reserve-chair-is-not-even-an-economist/article/2009986

Ike Brannon 10/6/2017 Weekly Standard Daniel Tarullo: From law professor 
to Federal Reserve Governor

https://www.brookings.edu/events/daniel-tarullo-from-law-professor-to-federal-reserve-governor/

Brookings Institute 10/3/2017 Video Inflation expectations hard to 
measure. Why not a greater focus on how overall debt levels, 
historically high everywhere, change models? World Population growth 
rate

https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/population-growth-rates

Our World in Data 2017

This is why global growth has slowed and in spite of temporary rebounds 
will continue to do so as overall population peaks by 2100 Labour 
repression &amp; the Indo-Japanese&nbsp;divergence

https://pseudoerasmus.com/2017/10/02/ijd/

Pseudoerasmus 10/2/2017

Terrific economic history from @pseudoerasmus

https://twitter.com/pseudoerasmus

comparing India & Japan's industrialization and the relative strength of 
labor in each country. Is Europe Prepared for the Next Crisis?

https://piie.com/events/europe-prepared-next-crisis

Klaus Regling, Jeromin Zettelmeyer , and Adam S. Posen 10/11/17 PIIE and 
European Stability Mechanism (Video) and prepared remarks Not 
surprisingly, the head of the European Stability Mechanism is 
optimistic. However, the list of tasks to complete integration is 
daunting. Debt CFR Sovereign Risk Tracker

https://www.cfr.org/cfr-sovereign-risk-tracker#!/?cid=soc-twitter-in-sovereign_risk_tracker-050517

Council on Foreign Relations 5/1/2017 Which countries are most likely to 
suffer a debt crisis? Track sovereign risk with @BennSteil

https://twitter.com/BennSteil

's interactive map 5 facts about government debt around the world

http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2017/09/19/5-facts-about-government-debt-around-the-world/

Abby Budiman & Drew Desilver 9/19/17 Pew Research The U.S. Can No Longer 
Afford Deficit-Increasing Tax Cuts

https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-u-s-can-no-longer-afford-deficit-increasing-tax-cuts-1506889725

Jason Furman 10/2/2017 WSJ Common sense. China Infographic: How the CCP 
Rules, a Guide to China's Leaders of Party and State

http://fairbank.fas.harvard.edu/infographic-how-the-ccp-rules-a-guide-to-chinas-leaders-of-party-and-state/

Yuanzhuo Wang & James Evans 10/11/2017 Fairbank Center for Chinese 
Studies As leaders meet in Beijing for the 19th Party Congress, a visual 
guide to understanding China's elite politics. 1.34 million officials 
have been punished for graft since 2013, Chinese watchdog says

https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2017/10/08/1-point-34-million-officials-have-been-punished-for-graft-since-2013-chinese-watchdog-says.html

CNBC 10/8/2017

Astonishing number when one realizes that this is more than the entire 
population of San Diego.

Beijing Pushes for a Direct Hand in China's Big Tech Firms

https://www.wsj.com/articles/beijing-pushes-for-a-direct-hand-in-chinas-big-tech-firms-1507758314

Li Yuan 10/11/2017 WSJ Will "red shares" increase moral hazard, and how 
will markets react? China May Be Running Out of Time To Escape the 
Middle-Income Trap

http://asiasociety.org/new-york/china-may-be-running-out-time-escape-middle-income-trap

Eric Fish 10/3/2017 Asia Society

A panel chaired by Kevin Rudd, former PM of Australia, including Evan 
Medeiros, Asia Director of the NSC under Obama. "I don't think that Xi 
Jinping necessarily is a reformer. I think he is a modernizer"—and that 
distinction is critical.

1949: The Year That Set the Course of Chinese-American Relations

https://mobile.nytimes.com/2017/10/04/books/review/kevin-peraino-a-force-so-swift-mao-truman.html?referer=https://t.co/GZbEeQWioK?amp=1

Orville Schell 10/4/2017 NYT

Masterful review of A FORCE SO SWIFT: Mao, Truman and the Birth of 
Modern China, 1949 By Kevin Peraino

War Inside North Korea, and Feeling the Drums of War

http://content.davidhaleweb.com/acton/ct/3037/s-01e3-1710/Bct/l-sf-cl-701C0000000UEmJIAW-0024/l-sf-cl-701C0000000UEmJIAW-0024:15c/ct36_1/1?sid=TV2%3AemQXCeMeM

Nicholas Kristof 10/5/2017 NYT Sobering, frightening, enlightening. 
Hypersonic Missile Nonproliferation: Hindering the Spread of a New Class 
of Weapons

https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RR2137.html?adbsc=social_20171007_1836761&adbid=916788481753473024&adbpl=tw&adbpr=22545453

Richard H. Speier, George Nacouzi, Carrie Lee and Richard M. 
Moore10/7/2017 Rand Corp.

We have more to worry about than the spread of nuclear weapons over the 
next decade. The proliferation of hypersonic missiles would give nations 
an incentive to become trigger-happy.

With all best wishes,

Lyric Hughes Hale

Editor-in-Chief

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