Subject: POLITICO's Morning Score: Close Virginia governor polls set Democratic nerves on edge — Risking it all, Flake takes on Trump — MarchOn kicks off post-Women’s March super PAC
From: "Morning Score" <[email-masked]>
To: <[email-masked]>
Date: Thu, 19 Oct 2017 08:02:53 -0600
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By Elena Schneider | 10/19/2017 10:00 AM EDT

With Zach Montellaro and Maggie Severns
 
The following newsletter is an abridged version of Campaign Pro's Morning Score. For an earlier morning read on exponentially more races - and for a more comprehensive aggregation of the day's most important campaign news - sign up for Campaign Pro today. (http://www.politicopro.com/proinfo)
 
NUMBER NERVES - "Close Virginia governor polls set Democratic nerves on edge," by Campaign Pro's Kevin Robillard: "Democrat Ralph Northam is leading most polls of the Virginia governor's race. He has millions more to spend in the closing weeks of the race than Ed Gillespie, the Republican nominee. And he's aired more television ads than Gillespie over the last month. But despite all of that, Democrats are growing increasingly anxious about the too-close-to-call campaign. While Northam has held leads ranging from a few points to double digits in most polls, the first survey in months showing Gillespie with a 1-point edge came out just weeks before Election Day - and in any case, after
 overconfidence in 2016, almost no polling lead could relieve Democratic worrying. Some in Northam's party are concerned about his campaign's decision to outsource its digital advertising to outside groups. And others were dismayed to see the campaign leave the party's black lieutenant gubernatorial nominee off some fliers distributed by a union." Full story.
 
- "Va. law license of GOP attorney general candidate was briefly suspended in 2011," via The Washington Post: "John Adams, the Republican candidate for Virginia attorney general, briefly had his law license suspended in 2011 for failure to pay annual fees to the state bar, according to documents obtained by the Washington Post from Democrats." Full story.
 
FROM THE HILL - "Flake takes on Trump - and risks it all," by POLITICO's Burgess Everett and Seung Min Kim: "Most Republicans threatened with primary challenges next year are opting not to criticize President Donald Trump - even those who are privately appalled by his bombastic governing style. Then there's Jeff Flake. The Arizona senator is the rare incumbent running as an underdog in his own primary and just might be the most vulnerable Senate Republican on the ballot in 2018. But the first-term senator, who refused to support Trump last year, hasn't backed away since, even as the president threatened to get behind a primary challenger against him. If anything, Flake is determined to make
 his campaign against Trump-aligned candidate Kelli Ward a referendum on the future of the Republican Party. 'You can always eke out an election victory here and there,' he told POLITICO in an interview this week. 'But ... resentment is not a governing philosophy.'" Full story. 
 
ICYMI - "House third-quarter FEC spreadsheet," by Campaign Pro's Scott Bland: "See total receipts, disbursements and cash on hand for over 800 House campaigns after the third quarter. The spreadsheet includes all candidates who raised over $5,000 during the quarter, finished with more than $5,000 on hand and have filed statements of candidacy with the FEC. It also shows contribution details, including itemized and unitemized individual contribution totals and candidate loans and contributions, as well as committee debt reported by each campaign in its third quarter FEC report." Spreadsheet. 
 
FIRST IN SCORE - MarchOn kicks off post-Women's March super PAC: MarchOn, a progressive group led by a Women's March founder, is launching on Thursday, per a statement from the group. MarchOn is "the national organization of sister marches" that will "galvanize the millions who marched to create lasting, transformative political power," per the statement. Armed with an email list of 2 million people, MarchOn is starting a super PAC to raise money for an independent expenditure. MarchOn plans a poll of its members, called "Operation Marching Orders," to "do a quick check on where their people stand on the key 10-12 issues facing the country." Check out the website here.
 
ALL IN THE FAMILY - "Filing shows Pence's brother readying House campaign," by Campaign Pro's Maggie Severns: "A new federal tax filing indicates that Vice President Mike Pence's brother, Greg, is preparing to launch a campaign for Congress in Indiana. An operative with ties to Vice President Pence and Rep. Luke Messer, who is leaving his House seat to run for Senate, filed paperwork with the IRS this week to form 'Greg Pence for Congress Inc.' 'for purposes of conducting a campaign in 2018 for the election of Greg Pence as United State Representative in Indiana.' Greg Pence has been weighing a run for Congress in Messer's 6th District for months." Full story.
 
CASH RACE - DCCC raised $8.9M, NRCC $4.9M in September: "The DCCC announced today it raised $8.9 million during September, outraising its Republican counterpart as it seeks to challenge the GOP for the House next year. This is the fifth month in a row the DCCC has outraised the NRCC. The DCCC has raised a total of $81.3 million this year overall. The committee did not announce how much cash it currently has on hand, but it ended August with close to $25 million. The NRCC meanwhile raised $4.9 million in September and has brought in $72 million overall this year, McClatchy reported. The committee has $38.4 million cash on hand, which is $18.5 million more than it had at this time in 2015."
 Full story.
 
Days until the 2017 election: 19. 
 
Days until the 2018 election: 383. 
 
Thanks for joining us! You can email tips to the Campaign Pro team at [email-masked], [email-masked], [email-masked], [email-masked] and [email-masked].
 
You can also follow us on Twitter: @politicoscott, @ec_schneider, @politicokevin, @danielstrauss4 and @maggieseverns. 
 
POLLING DATA - Quinnipiac University poll finds Northam 53, Gillespie 39: "A Quinnipiac University poll of the Virginia governor's race has Democratic Lt. Gov. Ralph Northam leading former RNC chair Ed Gillespie, 53 percent to 39 percent. The last iteration of Quinnipiac poll, conducted last month, had Northam leading 51 percent to 41 percent. Most public polling has shown a much closer race, typically giving Northam a small lead. One other poll, a Washington Post survey, showed Northam with a similarly large lead. On the flip side, a Monmouth poll this week showed Gillespie with a 1-point edge for the first time in months." Full story.
 
ON THE HILL - "McCain cites campaign finance reform in backing online ad disclosure bill," via POLITICO's Ashley Gold: "Sen. John McCain said today his support for a Democratic bill requiring disclosure for online political ads is part of his longtime advocacy for campaign finance reform. McCain told reporters he backed the Honest Ads Act 'for the same reason I have been for transparency in campaign finance reform for the last 25 years.' He said he didn't know if other Republicans would get on board or if GOP leadership supports the bill." Full story.
 
FRIENDS IN HIGH PLACES - "Gov. Doug Ducey, despite lean budget, awards hefty pay raises to his staff," by The Arizona Republic's Craig Harris: "Gov. Doug Ducey, who this year offered teachers raises of less than 1 percent because of the state's austere budget, has given 44 of his staff members raises of up to 20 percent each over the past 2&frac12; years, records obtained by The Arizona Republic show. Those documents show Ducey has distributed raises to most of his staff since he was elected in 2015, with some getting multiple bumps in pay. The governor also promoted at least 40 employees, with their salaries increasing by amounts ranging from 5 to 100 percent. Just more than one-fourth of
 those receiving additional pay from promotions also received merit pay raises." Full story.
 
FINAL DEBATE NIGHT - "Guadagno and Murphy play hot potato with Chris Christie during governor debate, via NJ.com: "It was an awkward moment Wednesday night kicking off the second and final televised debate of the race to succeed Chris Christie as New Jersey's governor. Christie's lieutenant governor, GOP nominee Kim Guadagno, declared she's no Christie. Instead, she tried to tie her Democratic rival Phil Murphy to the unpopular outgoing governor who put her in a position to run for statewide office when he plucked her from local office to serve as his running mate in 2009. 'Anybody who knows me, knows I'm not Chris Christie,' Guadagno said in response to a question from the debate
 moderator. 'I'm running on my record,' she said." Full story.
 
CELEB OUTREACH - Chelsea Handler leaves Netflix show to make documentary: Comedian Chelsea Handler tweeted the news that she's not returning to her talk show, Chelsea, but she'll instead work on a documentary with Netflix to engage with "people of different ethnicities, religions and political philosophies." Handler also said she's "joining forces with EMILY's List to elect more women to public office," but didn't share any further details. 
 
FROM THE COURTROOM - "Menendez witnesses contradict prosecution points," by POLITICO New Jersey's Matt Friedman: "Two witnesses for Sen. Bob Menendez and Florida eye doctor and co-defendant Salomon Melgen's defense on Wednesday contradicted key points made by prosecution witnesses last month." Full story.
 
STAFFING UP - Sen. Manchin announces campaign staff: West Virginia Sen. Joe Manchin rolled out his campaign staff in a statement. Larry Puccio, who served as Manchin's chief of staff in the governor's office, will be a senior adviser. Pat Devney, who ran Democrat Colin Van Ostern's New Hampshire governor's run in 2016, will repeat the role for Manchin. Grant Herring will be the communications director. Patti Hamilton will be the in-state finance director. Marcus Constantino will be the digital director. 
 
- Sam Rubino joins Eddie Edwards in NH-01: Sam Rubino, who previously served as the deputy political director of the Montana Republican Party, is now working as a field staffer for Republican Eddie Edwards in New Hampshire.
 
PERSONNEL CHANGES - AFP CEO and COO leaving group to acquire The Champion Group: Americans for Prosperity CEO Luke Hilgemann and COO Sean Lansing are leaving the Koch-backed group and acquiring the political consulting firm The Champion Group, which was started by Keith Gilkes, a top advisor to Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker. Gilkes, who just launched the strategic communications firm Platform Communications, will stay on as a senior adviser and consult for Walker's campaign. "We're excited for the opportunity to continue our fight for conservative reform, and to be doing it with a proud brand like The Champion Group," Hilgemann and Lansing said in a joint statement. "Wisconsin is an important
 center of the conservative movement and one we know well."
 
- Conor Maguire joins WPA Intelligence: Conor Maguire, who most recently worked as the RNC's director of external support, will join WPA Intelligence, a Republican data and analytics firm, per a statement from the group. Maguire will serve as a senior client strategist. 
 
ADMINISTRATION SPEED READ - "Trump falls short on 'drain the swamp' promises," by POLITICO's Theodoric Meyer: "Shortly before Election Day last year, Donald Trump rolled out a package of ethics reforms that he promised to implement as president, using for the first time a now-famous phrase: 'drain the swamp.' A year later and nearly 10 months into his presidency, Trump has failed to deliver on most of those reforms. Of a five-point list of proposals he unveiled to tighten the rules for Washington lobbying, only one has been fully implemented. And rather than draining the swamp, many Washington lobbyists say business is better than ever. Spending on lobbying in Washington totaled almost $1.7
 billion in the first half of the year, the highest since 2012, according to the Center for Responsive Politics." Full story. 
 
CODA - QUOTE OF THE DAY: "There's only two real teams in the presidential election in 2020, and that's Trump versus a Democrat." - Bob Mulholland, a Democratic National Committeeman from California, on introducing "a resolution that the party will consider at its Las Vegas meeting later this week calling on Sanders and Maine Independent Sen. Angus King - both of whom caucus with the Democrats - to actually join the party," CNN reported. 
 
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