Subject: POLITICO's Morning Score: Northam's rural push produces uncertain gains — Big GOP donors back conservative EMILY's List counterweight — Kochs attack Baldwin on tax reform
From: "Morning Score" <[email-masked]>
To: <[email-masked]>
Date: Thu, 26 Oct 2017 08:04:17 -0600
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By Kevin Robillard | 10/26/2017 10:00 AM EDT

With Zach Montellaro, Elena Schneider and Colin Wilhelm 
 
The following newsletter is an abridged version of Campaign Pro's Morning Score. For an earlier morning read on exponentially more races - and for a more comprehensive aggregation of the day's most important campaign news - sign up for Campaign Pro today. (http://www.politicopro.com/proinfo)
 
OL' VIRGINNY - "Northam's rural efforts produce uncertain results," by Campaign Pro's Kevin Robillard: "When the Democratic Party vowed to win more rural voters in future elections after a disastrous 2016, Virginia Lt. Gov. Ralph Northam looked like the prototypical candidate to get things rolling. Northam, the party's nominee for governor in 2017, is a native of Virginia's rural Eastern Shore. He went to the historic Virginia Military Institute and served as an Army doctor. He built up a moderate record in the state legislature, and he has done what rural Democrats have long suggested: shown up, listened, and then shown up again in rural areas often neglected by the party. But the effort
 and enthusiasm has come with little evidence of Democratic improvement in rural Virginia, a warning sign for a party preparing to contest Senate, House and gubernatorial races throughout rural America next year. Northam's campaign still believes he is doing well enough in Virginia's rural corners to win, given Democrats' strength in fast-growing Northern Virginia. Internal polling earlier this month showed Northam getting 36 percent to Republican Ed Gillespie's 49 percent in the rural Bristol, Roanoke and Harrisonburg television markets - which President Donald Trump won 62 percent to 34 percent in 2016. ... 'We're plain Jane,' said Jay Clarke, a retired history professor who briefly
 resigned from his post as Rockbridge County Democratic Chair earlier this fall in order to protest what he saw as the state party's neglect of rural areas. 'And the temptress is Northern Virginia down to Richmond and Tidewater. And politicians are easily seduced.'" Full story.
 
- GETTING UGLY OUT THERE - Gillespie releases second ad attacking Northam over rights restoration: Ed Gillespie's campaign is out with a second ad attacking Northam over his support of automatic restoration of rights for felons. This ad features a young mom from Northern Virginia saying she can't support Northam because he "supports automatic restoration of rights for sex offenders, making it easier for these violent felons to get guns." Watch the ad here.
 
- GETTING UGLY OUT THERE, CONT. - "Virginia Democratic mailer links Gillespie to white nationalists in Charlottesville," by The Washington Post's Fenit Nirappil: "Virginia's heated election cycle is becoming increasingly nasty, with the statewide Democratic ticket sending out a new mailer linking Republican gubernatorial candidate Ed Gillespie and President Trump to the torch-bearing white nationalists who descended on Charlottesville over the summer. ... The mailer features images of both Republican men above a photo of the white supremacists with the text, 'On Tuesday November 7th, Virginia Gets To Stand Up...To Hate.'" Full story. 
 
BIG MONEY WATCH - "Big GOP donors launch group to elect Republican women," by POLITICO's Eliana Johnson: "A broad network of conservative operatives and Republican donors has been working the past year to build a conservative counterweight to EMILY's List, the powerhouse organization that backs Democratic female candidates who support abortion rights. The new effort, dubbed Winning for Women, quietly began soliciting members and funneling support to candidates about six weeks ago. The group now includes nearly 30,000 people who have provided their names and email addresses online, though it doesn't yet have a website and hasn't officially launched. Winning for Women is being supported by
 some of the Republican Party's biggest donors, including Linda McMahon, Betsy DeVos, Robert and Rebekah Mercer, TD Ameritrade founder Joe Ricketts and his son, Todd, and the hedge fund billionaire Paul Singer. The group hopes to swell its ranks to 400,000 by November 2018, according to a source familiar with the organization's plans. ... Unlike EMILY's List, which supports only candidates who back abortion rights, Winning for Women will have no litmus test on abortion." Full story. 
 
- Who else is involved: Former White House deputy chief of staff Katie Walsh; ALEC CEO Lisa Nelson; former Sen. Kelly Ayotte of New Hampshire and former NRCC executive director Liesl Hickey.
 
- Who they're endorsing: Minnesota state Sen. Carla Nelson in MN-01; attorney Tiffany Shedd in AZ-01; Dakota Secretary of State Shantel Krebs in SD-01; and incumbent Reps. Barbara Comstock, Martha Roby and Karen Handel.
 
TAX TALK - NEW THIS A.M. - Freedom Partners spends $1.6 million attacking Baldwin on taxes: The Koch-backed Freedom Partners Chamber of Commerce is launching a new $1.6 million television buy pressing Democratic Sen. Tammy Baldwin to back tax reform. The first of the two spots included in the ad, "$5 Trillion," attacks her for previously supporting higher taxes. The second ad, "Absolutely Wrong," has the owner of a construction company talking direct to camera about Baldwin's record. "If Tammy Baldwin opposes tax reform, it's proof that she opposes jobs. She opposes higher wages. I know of nothing that she's done to help working people like us," the man says. Watch the ads here and here. 
 
- Freedom Partners also blitzes lobbyists in TV spot: The group is also airing a television ad on D.C. cable attacking lobbyists who might stand in the way of tax reform and directing viewers to NoMoreCorporateWelfare.com. Watch the ad here. 
 
Days until the 2017 election: 12. 
 
Days until the 2018 election: 376.
 
Thanks for joining us! You can email tips to the Campaign Pro team at [email-masked], [email-masked], [email-masked], [email-masked] and [email-masked].
 
You can also follow us on Twitter: @politicoscott, @ec_schneider, @politicokevin, @danielstrauss4 and @maggieseverns. 
 
RAISING ARIZONA - Ward names Ed Rollins as campaign chair: Former state Sen. Kelli Ward named GOP operative Ed Rollins the chairman of her campaign. Rollins has ties to a super PAC controlled by allies of former White House strategist Steve Bannon, but is famous for managing Ronald Reagan's 1984 reelection bid. 
 
- Arizona delegation huddles on Senate bid: Rep. David Schweikert told reporters in the Capitol on Wednesday he wasn't sure he has "the type of burning passion" a Senate race would require and said his long-term goal has been to become governor. He said the GOP members of the Arizona delegation would have a "family conversation" on Thursday about the race. "It's not a coronation meeting," he said. "We're not going to be burning white smoke." 
 
MORE FROM OL' VIRGINNY - Hampton University poll gives Gillespie eight-point lead: A new poll from Hampton University has Gillespie earning 41 percent of the vote to Northam's 33 percent, with a whopping 27 percent undecided. Needless to say, this poll is a significant outlier for now. No poll has shown Northam receiving less than 40 percent of the vote since January. Full results here. 
 
- The Washington Post dropped its profiles of Northam and Gillespie: "The lure of the steady physician: Is Northam's r&eacute;sum&eacute; enough in the age of Trump?" Full story here. "Can a career tactician navigate Trump and a GOP civil war and win Virginia?" Full story here. 
 
- Conservative radio host Laura Ingraham, who hasn't been shy to criticize Gillespie, pressed the Republican on why he wouldn't campaign with President Donald Trump. Listen to the interview here. 
 
FIRST IN SCORE - WEB WARS - Forward Majority six-figure digital buy in Virginia: Forward Majority, the progressive super PAC working to flip legislative seats, is backing a digital buy with more than $100,000, targeting Virginia delegate seats that Hillary Clinton won in 2016. "The ads include positive and contrast tracks, informed by Forward Majority's polling and research, which largely indicates several Republicans House candidates are highly vulnerable over their support of Trumpcare, efforts to block Medicaid expansion in VA and efforts to force women to undergo transvaginal ultrasounds prior to having an abortion," per a memo from the group. 
 
- NRCC targets House candidates who received donations from Pelosi: The NRCC is out with digital ads that go after House candidates who received donations from Nancy Pelosi, attacking the leader for "picking her favorite candidates." The ad will air in the following districts: Anthony Brindisi (NY-22), Brad Ashford (NE-02), Jason Crow (CO-06), Susie Lee (NV-03), Ann Kirkpatrick (AZ-02), Paul Davis (KS-02), Chrissy Houlahan (PA-06), Jay Hulings (TX-23), Brendan Kelly (IL-12), Elissa Slotkin (MI-08) and Nancy Soderberg (FL-06). Watch the ad here. 
 
YOUR DAILY MENENDEZ - "Scarinci testimony gets tense at Menendez trial," by POLITICO NJ's Matt Friedman in Newark: "An aide to U.S. Sen. Robert Menendez attempted Wednesday to explain the senator's failure to disclose trips he took on co-defendant Salomon Melgen's private jet, saying it was easy for that information to fall through the cracks during a chaotic time. Prosecutors at Menendez's federal corruption trial zeroed in on a statement from the senator's office in January 2013 that said Menendez had flown on Melgen's plane 'on three occasions' and that the trips had been appropriately paid for. (The trips were actually paid for after Melgen and Menendez' relationship was drawing
 scrutiny.) The number of trips turned out not to be true. The senator, in fact, had flown on Melgen's jets many more times - six times or 19 times, depending on whether every leg of every trip is counted. Robert Kelly, Menendez's deputy chief of staff for operation, said he began looking into trips the senator took on Melgen's jet in November 2012, after a conservative media outlet published a 'salacious, false press article that also called into question the relationship of the senator and his good friend, Doctor Melgen.'" Full story.
 
SHOW ME SOMETHING - "Hawley alleges McCaskill has ruled out tax reform. The record says otherwise," by the St. Louis Post-Dispatch's Kevin McDermott: "Missouri Attorney General Josh Hawley, in one of his first major media events as a Republican U.S. Senate candidate, on Wednesday slammed incumbent Sen. Claire McCaskill for what he alleged was her pre-emptive dismissal of any GOP tax-reform proposal. 'President Trump is out there trying to lower taxes for the middle class,' Hawley told reporters in a media conference call. McCaskill, he claimed, 'opposes the very idea of tax cuts before she's even seen the legislation. ... It's just, 'No, no, no, no, no.' But in fact, McCaskill has
 previously offered tentative support of some concepts in the still-evolving Republican tax plan. She has been targeted by the White House as one of a handful of Democratic senators who might be pliable on tax reform, and she was one of six Senate Democrats who sat down with Trump on the issue last week." Full story. 
 
2018 WATCH - "Andy Levin considers run for Michigan governor," by the Detroit News' Jonathan Oosting: "Democrat Andy Levin, a former state official and son of Congressman Sandy Levin, confirmed Tuesday he is seriously considering a run for Michigan governor and is nearing a decision on a possible campaign. If he jumps into the 2018 race, Levin would join a Democratic field headlined by former state Senate Minority Leader Gretchen Whitmer, the early frontrunner for the party nomination. ... Levin's continued interest in the governor's race comes as speculation swirls that Sander Levin, 86, could consider retiring from the U.S. House rather than seek re-election next year, rumors his
 congressional office has downplayed." Full story. 
 
EARLY POLLING DATA - "Rouda internal shows tight CA-48 race," by Campaign Pro's Elena Schneider: "An internal poll from Harley Rouda, one of Rep. Dana Rohrabacher's (R-Calif.) Democratic challengers, shows Rohrabacher and Rouda locked in a close head-to-head matchup more than a year ahead of Election Day. The Tulchin Research survey shows Rohrabacher getting 48 percent of the vote to Rouda's 44 percent of the vote, with another 8 percent undecided. The poll does not address the other Democrats seeking to take on Rohrabacher. ... On the generic ballot, Democrats lead by a 2-point margin - 42 percent to 40 percent - in a traditionally Republican district that Hillary Clinton carried over
 Trump by about 2 points in 2016." Full story here and polling memo here. 
 
MONEY TIDBITS - Republican Paul Addis drops big personal money: Paul Addis, who is running as an "imaginative conservative" in the GOP primary to challenge Pennsylvania Democratic Sen. Bob Casey, loaned his campaign $850,000, per an FEC report. 
 
- Wisconsin Republican Kevin Nicholson loaned his Senate campaign $25,000, according to the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel. 
 
- "McCaskill attracts donors from outside Missouri," the Kansas City Star reports.
 
CODA - QUOTE OF THE DAY: "We have a leader who has a personality disorder, but he's done what he actually told the people he was going to do, and they're not going to abandon him." - former Oklahoma Sen. Tom Coburn to The New York Times. 
 
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