Subject: POLITICO's Morning Score: Election Day — 5 things to watch in New Jersey, Virginia
From: "Morning Score" <[email-masked]>
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Date: Tue, 07 Nov 2017 09:01:55 -0600
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By Kevin Robillard | 11/07/2017 10:00 AM EDT

With Zach Montellaro, Elena Schneider, Daniel Strauss and Maggie Severns
 
The following newsletter is an abridged version of Campaign Pro's Morning Score. For an earlier morning read on exponentially more races - and for a more comprehensive aggregation of the day's most important campaign news - sign up for Campaign Pro today. (http://www.politicopro.com/proinfo)
 
WHAT TO WATCH - "5 things to watch in the Virginia and New Jersey governor's races," by Campaign Pro's Kevin Robillard and POLITICO New Jersey's Ryan Hutchins: "The premiere election of 2017 could steel Democrats' spines Tuesday night - or break their hearts. A win in the tight, closely watched Virginia governor's race between Democratic Lt. Gov. Ralph Northam and Republican Ed Gillespie would reassure the party that it can win big campaigns again and has momentum heading into the 2018 midterms. But a defeat - especially after Northam led public polling throughout the campaign in a state President Donald Trump lost last year - would be a huge psychological blow to a Democratic Party still
 reeling from the 2016 presidential election. As an extra gut punch, a Gillespie win would likely put a whopping 27th state government under full Republican control. Democrats are also overwhelmingly favored to take back the governorship in New Jersey, where Gov. Chris Christie is wildly unpopular and has dragged down Republican Lt. Gov. Kim Guadagno in her race against Democrat Phil Murphy. ... Northam's home turf .... Gillespie's southwestern strength ... Not going national in Northern Virginia ... Does Trump-style campaigning work in blue states like New Jersey? ... The Christie effect." Full story.
 
- The polls close at 7 p.m. Eastern Time in Virginia and 8 p.m. in New Jersey.
 
- Republicans looking to keep turnout low in Virginia: Gillespie's chances at the governorship, several Republicans said, depend more on low Democratic turnout than anything else. And it's clear the GOP is working to make that happen. Last night, Americans United for Values, a GOP group that has played most in Republican primaries in the past, paid for a push poll highlighting Northam's breaks with liberal orthodoxy, including his decision to back pipelines, his votes for George W. Bush before the start of his political career and his recent decision to come out against sanctuary cities. That follows the Gillespie campaign paying to push Democracy for America's recent public break with
 Northam, and an effort by black Republican leaders to discourage black voters from supporting Northam. 
 
- Big spike in Latino, Asian early voting, per Voter Participation Center: The Voter Participation Center, which works to turn out members of the so-called "Rising American Electorate," is out with an analysis showing some segments of the Democratic base are voting early at a higher rate than in 2013. The "Rising American Electorate" is making up 42 percent of the early vote in 2017, compared to 40 percent in 2013. The share of the early vote from people of color is up from 13 percent to 16 percent. And the raw totals for Latino and Asian early vote are up 114 percent and 195 percent, respectively. Full analysis here.
 
- WHAT'S YOUR EXCUSE FOR NOT VOTING? - "Judge grants Gates temporary release from house arrest to vote," by Cristiano Lima: "A federal judge granted former Trump campaign official Rick Gates, who is under house arrest after being charged with money laundering and other counts in the federal Russia probe, permission to leave his Virginia home to vote in the state's Tuesday elections." Full story. 
 
- VIRGINIA POLLS IN AT THE WIRE - The last wave of Virginia gubernatorial polls were all released yesterday, all showing Democrat Ralph Northam with a razor-thin to comfortable lead over Republican Ed Gillespie. A Quinnipiac poll has Northam up 51 percent to Gillespie's 42. Northam leads 51-45 in a Christopher Newport University poll. A Fox News poll conducted by Anderson Robbins Research and Shaw & Company Research has Northam leading by five, 48 percent to 43 percent. Monmouth University's poll has just a 2 percent gap, with Northam leading 47 percent to 45 percent. 
 
- And in New Jersey: Quinnipiac also released a poll in New Jersey giving Democrat Phil Murphy a commanding 53 percent to 41 percent lead of Republican Lt. Gov. Kim Guadagno in today's gubernatorial battle. The poll survied 662 likely voters between Oct. 29 and Nov. 5 and has a margin of error of 5.2 percent.
 
DOWNBALLOT DEBRIEF - "For Democrats, Virginia's Elections Are a Petri Dish," by Maggie Severns and Kevin Robillard in POLITICO Magazine: "In Virginia, at least, it's going to be an uphill climb. For years, Democrats haven't even managed to field candidates to contest every seat. In 2017, Democratic candidates have stepped up to run for 54 of the Republicans' 66 seats in the state legislature - more than double the number of challengers for those seats in 2015 - in an attempt to break the GOP's 20-year grip on the House of Delegates, the lower chamber of Virginia's General Assembly. The surge of interest, driven by antipathy to the president, has drawn support from national groups - both
 traditional Democratic organizations like EMILY's List and new-wave 'resistance' operations like Flippable - which are pouring resources into helping even long-shot challengers like [Tia] Walbridge. ... The math seems simple enough: Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton won 17 seats held by Republican delegates in 2016, and Democrats need to claim 17 seats to win back control of the chamber. But this is not a presidential election year, when Democrats usually enjoy a higher turnout all over the country. And no party has picked up more than seven seats in a single House of Delegates election since 2001. Republicans now predict they'll limit losses to four seats or fewer, while
 Democrats think they have a chance to pick up as a many as 10. In either scenario, Republicans will retain their majority - but even a small a Democratic surge would be read nationally as a harbinger of a blue wave to come." Full story.
 
WHAT ELSE TO WATCH - "15 elections you should be watching," by Steven Shepard: "St. Petersburg Mayor ... Atlanta Mayor ... Maine: Question 2 (Medicaid expansion) ... Boston City Council District 1 ... Minneapolis Mayor/St. Paul Mayor ... New Hampshire: Manchester Mayor ... New Jersey: State Senate 3rd District ... New York: Proposal 1 (Constitutional Convention) ... New York: Nassau and Westchester County Executives ... Ohio: Issue 2 (Drug prices) ... Utah: 3rd Congressional District ... Virginia: State House of Delegates 13th District ... Washington: State Senate 45th District." Full story here. 
 
Today is election day 2017. 
 
Days until the 2018 election: 364. 
 
Thanks for joining us! You can email tips to the Campaign Pro team at [email-masked], [email-masked], [email-masked], [email-masked] and [email-masked].
 
You can also follow us on Twitter: @politicoscott, @ec_schneider, @politicokevin, @danielstrauss4 and @maggieseverns. 
 
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GETTING IN - "McSally tells colleagues she's in for Flake's seat," by the Arizona Capitol Times: "McSally told her fellow Republicans from Arizona's US House delegation today that she's going to run for US Senate, two sources close to the delegation told our reporter this afternoon. The sources said McSally did not provide a timeline for when she will announce her candidacy. 'It must be very soon if she's telling people,' one source said. As of the end of the third quarter of 2017, McSally had raised more than $2.8 million for the 2018 election cycle, and had nearly $1.5 million on hand. Kelli Ward is already in the race, while Gosar, Regent Jay Heiler, former AZGOP Chairman Robert Graham,
 former Congressman Matt Salmon and former Congressman John Shadegg are considering running for Flake's seat as well."
 
THAT POLL-TIME RELIGION - "After a Tough 2016, Many Pollsters Haven't Changed Anything," by The New York Times' Nate Cohn: "A year after polls broadly overestimated Hillary Clinton's strength in the decisive Rust Belt battleground states, top pollsters and analysts across the survey industry have reached a broad near-consensus on many of the causes of error in the 2016 presidential election. But so far, public pollsters - typically run by news outlets and colleges - have not changed much about their approach. Few if any of the public pollsters that conducted surveys ahead of Tuesday's elections for governor in Virginia and New Jersey appear to have adopted significant methodological changes
 intended to better represent the rural, less educated white voters who pollsters believe were underrepresented in pre-election surveys." Full story.
 
- "No Winner In Debate Over Data Analytics and Traditional Polling," by WPA Intelligence's Chris Willson in Campaigns and Elections: "Polling can tell you what some of those issues are, but it can't tell you with the same precision whom to target. That's where data analytics comes in. Survey research and predictive analytics are complementary tools, not competitors. Traditional polls allow any campaign to make a few big decisions well. Predictive analytics tools allow them to make many small decisions well. When both tools are used to their fullest, a campaign maximizes its chances at victory." Full story.
 
NUMBERS THE DCCC WILL LIKE - A Washington Post/ABC News poll gives a generic Democratic candidate 51 percent over a generic Republican's 40 percent in a House ballot question. 
 
DEPT. OF BIO VIDEOS - Kit Seryak, veteran, launches in OH-16: Republican Kit Seryak, who served in Afghanistan, rolled out his bio video this week, featuring news coverage of NFL football players kneeling during the national anthem. "I'll fight each and every day, both for our Constitutional rights and for what this country stands for, but for me, this is the appropriate place to take a knee," Seryak says, as he kneels before the grave of his grandfather, who served in World War II. The ad also includes news footage that says there are "fewer veterans serving in Congress now than at any time in at least the last 50 years." Watch the video here. 
 
- Kaniela Ing, state legislator, kicks off HI-01 bid: Democrat Kaniela Ing, a state representative who endorsed Bernie Sanders for president, is launching his own bid to replace Rep. Colleen Hanabusa, who's running for governor. "When I was around 12 years old, my father passed away unexpectedly, so my mom was left to caring for four children and our grandmother on her own. We relied on our community and government programs," Ing says in a two-minute bio video, produced by Bill Hyers and Matt McLaughlin. "People are waking up to the fact that their voice is being silenced by a handful of wealthy elites," Ing says. Watch the video here. 
 
NEWS FEED - Weintraub urges tech companies to submit comments to FEC: Democratic FEC Commissioner Ellen Weintraub urges Facebook, Google and Twitter to weigh in during a comment period the FEC recently opened about online ad disclosure. The comment period is approaching a November 9 deadline. The volume and quality of comments received by the commission could determine whether or not the FEC makes new regulations pertaining to online ads in response to Russia's interference in the 2016 elections. "I want to personally renew my request that Facebook participate," Weintraub says in the letter. "It would be particularly helpful to receive information regarding the current state of Facebook's
 advertising technology, its ability to provide disclaimer information on paid political advertising, and how these may have changed since the Commission's 2006 internet rulemaking and since Facebook's 2011 advisory opinion request to the FEC." 
 
MENENDEZ WATCH - "Menendez corruption trial goes to jury," by John Bresnahan in Newark: "With the New Jersey Democrat's career and freedom hanging in the balance, his defense lawyer said Monday that Menendez's relationship with Salomon Melgen, a wealthy Florida ophthalmologist, was a longstanding friendship - not a corrupt connection, as claimed by the Justice Department. ... A federal prosecutor countered that Menendez did Melgen's bidding in return for bribes, saying Melgen 'paid Bob Menendez to be his personal U.S. senator.' ... Menendez later expressed optimism to reporters as he left the courthouse. 'I think my defense attorney did an amazing, extraordinary job. I was watching the
 jury's faces, and they were very receptive,' Menendez said. 'I think the government floundered in their closing statement. I'm looking forward to the jury's decision.'" Full story. 
 
2018 WATCH - "Dallas County sheriff Lupe Valdez emerges as potential challenger to Gov. Greg Abbott," by the Texas Tribune's Patrick Svitek: "In an interview Monday, Valdez described herself as 'in the exploratory process,' looking at the data for a potential run against the Republican incumbent. 'I've been approached and I'm listening,' she said. There are 35 days until the candidate filing deadline for the 2018 primaries, and Texas Democrats are looking for a serious contender to take on Abbott. Valdez said she believes it's 'time for a change' in GOP-dominated state government. ... First elected in 2004, Valdez is serving her fourth term as sheriff of Dallas County, the second most
 populous county in the state and a Democratic stronghold. She is one of only a few female sheriffs in Texas and the only Hispanic female sheriff in the country." Full story. 
 
AIR WAR - DGA-affiliated group goes up in Pennsylvania: America Works USA, a 501(c)(4) group affiliated with the Democratic Governors Association, is reserving broadcast time between Wednesday and Dec. 12, according to Advertising Analytics. So far, the group is spending $1.06 million in Pittsburgh and Scranton. The group is an issue-oriented organization affiliated with the DGA. It's previously run ads in Pennsylvania. 
 
- Downing goes up in Montana: Troy Downing, a veteran who's running for the GOP nomination to challenge Democratic Sen. Jon Tester, has gone up with 60-second biographical ads highlighting his military service after 9/11 and his business career. Downing also met with Donald Trump, Jr. and Eric Trump this weekend, per his Twitter. Watch the ad here. 
 
-NEW THIS MORNING - AAN adds $3 million on TV for tax reform: American Action Network is out with another $3 million in TV ads backing tax reform, bringing its total spending on boosting the GOP's plan to $18 million. The ads will air in 35 House districts, a mix of battleground and leadership seats. "Shortly after my husband got cancer - I lost my job. We were lucky to make it through, but we spent our life savings just to get by," says a woman featured in the ad. "So, we're glad Congress has released a plan that helps families like ours by cutting middle class taxes. Check out the full list of targeted districts here. Watch the ad here. 
 
CODA - QUOTE OF THE DAY: "The state of Virginia economy, under Democrat rule, has been terrible. If you vote Ed Gillespie tomorrow, it will come roaring back!" - President Donald Trump, on Twitter.
 
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