Subject: POLITICO's Morning Score: GOP leaders weigh drastic plan to save Alabama Senate seat — How Democrats could pull off a stunner in Alabama — Senate Majority PAC asks GOP groups to make foreign meddling pact
From: "Morning Score" <[email-masked]>
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Date: Thu, 16 Nov 2017 09:02:16 -0600
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By Elena Schneider | 11/16/2017 10:00 AM EDT

With Kevin Robillard, Heather Caygle, Zach Montellaro and Maggie Severns
 
The following newsletter is an abridged version of Campaign Pro's Morning Score. For an earlier morning read on exponentially more races - and for a more comprehensive aggregation of the day's most important campaign news - sign up for Campaign Pro today. (http://www.politicopro.com/proinfo)
 
LATEST FROM ALABAMA - "GOP leaders weigh drastic plan to save Alabama Senate seat," by POLITICO's Alex Isenstadt and Eliana Johnson: "Republican leaders are exploring a dramatic remedy to salvage the Alabama Senate seat as fresh polling shows Roy Moore's prospects fading fast. With less than four weeks until the special election and no sign that the party's besieged nominee will exit the race, Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell and his top advisers are discussing the legal feasibility of asking appointed Sen. Luther Strange to resign from his seat to trigger a new special election. McConnell aides express caution, saying they're uncertain whether such a move, one of several options
 being discussed, is even possible. Yet the talks underscore the despair among top Republicans over relinquishing a seat in deep-red Alabama, further diminishing their slim Senate majority." Full story.
 
- "New Moore accusers step forward as campaign disputes another," by Campaign Pro's Daniel Strauss: "Three more women accused Roy Moore of inappropriate behavior on Wednesday, the same day that his Senate campaign held a news conference challenging a woman who earlier this week accused Moore of sexual assault. One of the new accusers, Tina Johnson, told AL.com that Moore flirted with her and grabbed her buttocks in 1991 when he was an attorney handling her child custody case. Johnson told her story in the week after four women told The Washington Post that Moore pursued relationships with them when they were teenagers and Moore was in his 30s, including one woman who said Moore undressed
 her and touched her over her underwear when she was 14." Full story.
 
THE UNDERDOG - "How Jones could pull off a stunner in Alabama," by POLITICO's Gabriel Debenedetti and Strauss: "The first and most vital task for Doug Jones to pull off a once-unthinkable upset in Alabama: Get Republican voters comfortable with the idea that it's OK to pull the lever for this Democrat, if the alternative is scandal-wracked Roy Moore. ... Nearly unthinkable even a week ago, the prospect of Jones becoming the first Democrat elected to the Senate from Alabama in a quarter-century has suddenly become very real. Jones remains an underdog in a state that chose Donald Trump by a 28-point margin in the presidential election, and where Democrats comprise just over a third of the
 electorate, according to polling." Full story.
 
RUSSIA WATCH - "Senate Majority PAC asks GOP groups to make foreign meddling pact," by Campaign Pro's Kevin Robillard: "Senate Majority PAC, the main super PAC backing Senate Democrats, is challenging its Republican competitors to disavow foreign involvement in U.S. elections. Both of the groups named in the statement - Senate Leadership Fund, the super PAC aligned with Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, and the Koch brothers-backed Americans for Prosperity - declined to comment. Senate Majority PAC's statement shows how Democrats remain worried about foreign interference in the 2018 elections after the U.S. intelligence community determined Russia intervened in the 2016 elections to
 harm Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton." Full story.
 
HAPPENING TODAY - FEC commissioners poised to act on ad disclosure rules: Republican members of the Federal Election Commission signaled Wednesday night they're ready for the FEC to start revising its rules overseeing online political ads, a response to online Russian interference in the 2016 elections. In an agenda document posted to the FEC website, the three Republican commissioners propose a motion that would set into place the regulatory process for reworking the rules around online ads. "The need to prevent such [foreign] interference is an issue that transcends partisan politics, and on which all Americans can agree," the motion says.
 
- Why now? Similar past attempts to regulate online political ads gathered little public attention and quickly fizzled out. But the FEC received "thousands" of comments in recent weeks since it asked the public to weigh in on online ad disclosure rules, the motion says. Google and Facebook were among the expert voices that chimed in, as did Sen. Bernie Sanders' online gurus at Revolution Messaging.
 
- But but but: The trio will need one more vote to join them in order to pass their motion. Democrat Ellen Weintraub also plans to suggest moving ahead with the rulemaking, per a motion posted online, and has for months prodded the FEC to take aggressive action. Commissioner Steven Walther, an independent, plans to propose that the FEC set up a public hearing. 
 
FIRST IN SCORE - ON THE AIRWAVES - Not One Penny Coalition up with seven-figure TV ad buy in New York: The Not One Penny Coalition is out with cable and network TV ads in New York, criticizing the Republican tax plan for "[raising] taxes on New York families by eliminating deductions that regular people count on," the ad says. "Why do they want to raise our taxes? So they can give a huge tax break to the super wealthy and the big corporations," the ad continues. The ads started airing on Wednesday and will continue through Nov. 22. Watch the ad here. 
 
Days until the 2018 election: 355. 
 
Thanks for joining us! You can email tips to the Campaign Pro team at [email-masked], [email-masked], [email-masked], [email-masked] and [email-masked].
 
You can also follow us on Twitter: @politicoscott, @ec_schneider, @politicokevin, @danielstrauss4 and @maggieseverns. 
 
GUNS IN 2018 - Checking in with Giffords: The Giffords political team sat down with Campaign Pro to talk about the midterms. Citing Virginia, they highlighted suburban, well-educated districts where they say gun safety messaging is proving effective. "If [Democrats] do take the majority in 2018, the better part of their gains are going to come from [Romney-Clinton] districts and guns are going to have played an important role," said Peter Ambler, executive director of Giffords. 
 
- On Democratic primaries, Giffords' political director Isabelle James said that they are "seeing a lot of folks vying to be the best on the [guns] issue, more so than even previous cycles." The endorsement is a way for when "perhaps [there] isn't as much of a contrast" in primaries, "people are trying to figure out, 'what can I say to create a wedge,'" James said. Giffords already announced that it's backing three veterans: Jason Crow (CO-06), Gil Cisneros (CA-39) and Mikie Sherrill (NJ-11). "Guns is a litmus test for Democrats," Ambler added. 
 
- On GOP endorsements, Ambler said he expects them to endorse Republicans and Democrats, noting that Pennsylvania Rep. Ryan Costello and New York Rep. Dan Donovan have been partners on legislation. 
 
- On Democrats using guns in their own ads, James said it works for candidates, like Jason Kander, where "he has real credibility" on using firearms. But Ambler warned against a candidate grabbing a rifle and sticking it in an ad to try to appeal to voters. Ambler cited Democrat Lon Johnson's ad last cycle, in which he looked "articularly uncomfortable and inauthentic. ... You've got to be true to who you are."
 
FEELING THEIR OATS - Internal poll shows Fischer underwater in Nebraska: Democrats, fresh off a surprisingly large victory in the Virginia governor's race, are looking at some long-shot opportunities on the 2018 map. One of them? The Nebraska Senate race. Lincoln Councilmember Jane Raybould's campaign is out with a survey from Democratic IVR firm Public Policy Polling showing Republican Sen. Deb Fischer's approval rating is at just 35 percent, with 45 percent disapproval. Fischer led Raybould, 42 percent to 31 percent, but "after being given Democrat Jane Raybould's background and asked again who they would vote for, Raybould leads" 38 percent to 35 percent. Raybould is little-known, with
 71 percent of registered voters not knowing who she is. The poll, conducted 80 percent by IVR and 20 percent online, surveyed 1,190 registered voters and has a margin of error of plus or minus 2.8 percentage points. Full polling memo. 
 
- SO YOU'RE SAYING THERE'S A CHANCE? - Democrats are bullish on their chances of taking back the House next year, particularly after sweeping victories last week in Virginia and elsewhere up and down the ballot. House Minority Whip Steny Hoyer (D-Md.) told reporters Wednesday he's giving Democrats a "60 percent chance" of winning the majority in 2018, noting he thinks their odds will only go up. "Even in the last cycle I would not have said [that]," Hoyer said, pointing to big Democratic gains on Election Day and historic early fundraising totals for Democratic challengers as reasons for his optimism.
 
- Hoyer also dismissed criticism that he and other Democratic leaders are playing favorites when they donate to specific candidates in a crowded primary field. "You need to have people win the primaries who can win the generals," Hoyer said. "We want to try to get the strongest general election candidate. That is not necessarily always the strongest primary candidate."
 
FIRST IN SCORE - WEB WARS - Mackler launches microsite targeting Blackburn: James Mackler, the Democrat running for Tennessee Sen. Bob Corker's seat, has launched a microsite targeting Rep. Marsha Blackburn, the leading GOP candidate. The site, ByeByeBlackburn.com, attacks the congresswoman for voting for the GOP's Obamacare repeal plan, for "refus[ing] to take responsibility for her role in intensifying our nation's drug crisis," and for "remain[ing] silent on fellow Breitbart-endorsed candidate Roy Moore and the horrific allegations made against him for days." Full site here. 
 
EARLY POLLING DATA - "WBUR poll finds Warren and Baker are up big over their challengers," by WBUR's Ben Swasey: "Warren is viewed favorably by 55 percent of Massachusetts voters, according to the survey, and the Democrat has advantages of at least 23 percentage points when faced off individually against her four declared challengers. In hypothetical match-ups, Warren leads Geoff Diehl, 58 percent to 32 percent; Shiva Ayyadurai, 58-27; Beth Lindstrom, 56-33; and John Kingston, 57-33. ... Baker is viewed favorably by 67 percent of the state's voters, and the Republican holds leads of at least 34 points against his three declared Democratic challengers. Baker is up 59 percent to 19 percent
 over Jay Gonzalez, 60-21 over Bob Massie, and 58-24 over Setti Warren. (At this stage, Warren is the challenger most well-known and viewed most favorably among Democratic voters.)" Full story. 
 
- Arizona Senate poll shows Sinema tied with potential GOP candidates: A new poll from GOP firm OH Predictive Insights has Democratic Rep. Kyrsten Sinema tied with both leading potential GOP candidates in Arizona's Senate race. Sinema is tied with Rep. Martha McSally, earning 46 percent of the vote to McSally's 45 percent. Against former state Sen. Kelli Ward, Sinema earns 46 percent of the vote to Ward's 43 percent. In the GOP primary, Ward leads McSally, 42 percent to 34 percent, with 24 percent undecided. The poll of 600 likely general election voters has a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points. The poll of 323 likely GOP primary voters has a margin of error of plus or
 minus 5.5 percentage points. Full results. 
 
CODA - QUOTE OF THE DAY: "Bring It On is a movie about high school cheerleaders." - NRSC Executive Director Chris Hansen replied in a retweet of Roy Moore's tweet, which said, "Dear Mitch McConnell, Bring. It. On." 
 
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