Subject: Les Campbell Testimony - HFAC 11/7
From: "Ken Wollack" <[email-masked]>
To: <[email-masked]>
Date: Tue, 21 Nov 2017 10:11:33 -0500

I thought you would be interested in the recent testimony of NDI's Les
Campbell before the House Foreign Affairs Committee on democracy and
governance in the Middle East.

Best wishes for the holiday.

Ken

Kenneth Wollack
President
National Democratic Institute
455 Massachusetts Ave., NW, 8th Floor
Washington, DC 20001
202-728-5500 (Tel)
888-875-2887 (Fax)
email: [email-masked]
website: www.ndi.org

Leslie Campbell

*Senior Associate and Regional Director, Middle East North* *Africa
National Democratic Institute for International Affairs*

*House Committee on Foreign Affairs Tuesday, November 7, 2017*

*Democracy and Governance in the Middle East and North Africa*

It is sometimes posited that the Arab Spring unleashed a new era of
instability in the Middle East by toppling repressive but “stable”
dictators. However, this oft stated thesis collapses under scrutiny as the
remaining, supposedly stable regimes are increasingly the locus of conflict
and regional disarray. Putting a lie to the “dictatorship equals stability”
thesis, the countries that undertook limited democratic reform or were
relatively well-governed prior to the 2011 uprisings

-- Morocco, Tunisia, Jordan and Lebanon -- have demonstrated resistance to
destabilizing forces and continue on a path of limited liberalization, if
not deep reform. Countries with long histories of authoritarian government
or dictatorship -- Libya, Syria and Egypt -- are in various states of
societal and political crisis. In other words, more democratic and open
government, where it exists in the Middle East, is actually correlated with
the relatively peaceful parts of the region, while authoritarianism and
repression have spawned and furthered instability and conflict.

Of course, any typology has exceptions. Iraq, Yemen and Bahrain have been
drawn into the rift between Saudi Arabia and Iran and are increasingly
influenced by powerful outside forces. Algeria and Oman, with long
traditions of independence and resistance to joining regional trends, are
steering a third course by avoiding Arab Spring-like protests while
pursuing limited change.

Across the Middle East and North Africa (MENA), a continuing youth bulge
matched by dim economic prospects is creating conditions that risk new
upheaval if key constituencies remain excluded from decision-making
processes. According to the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP)
2016 Arab *Human Development Report*, 60 percent of the population in the
MENA region is under the age of 30 and half of these are just entering the
workforce. However, unemployment in MENA is twice the global average,
regional youth voting rates are the lowest in the world and the rate of
youth participation in protests is on the increase. Moreover, refugees in
the region make up 57 percent of the global total while internally
displaced people account for 47 percent worldwide, creating added pressures
on local populations and resource distortions.

A further overlay on this complex regional tapestry is the rapid growth of
Russian-style crackdowns on civil society organizations and against foreign
funding in support of democracy. Egypt has become one of the world’s most
hostile nations to civil society activism, and even Morocco and Jordan have
discussed laws that would restrict civil society and foreign funding. In
Egypt, political pluralism has been eradicated, and in Bahrain and Saudi
Arabia seemingly benign internet postings that do not parrot the official
line can provoke harassment or even jail. In light of the crackdown in
certain countries, NDI’s approach is to work with local partners where
cooperation is allowed, and rely more heavily on online engagement where
conflict or political repression put local partners and activists at risk.

Despite the spectre of increased governmental restrictions and the inherent
challenges of encouraging political reform in a volatile region, there are
several imperatives in the realm of democracy and governance that remain as
urgent today as they were pre-2011. Citizens of the Middle East do not
perceive that they are witnessing the waning of demand for reform and
modernization. Rather, their demands for accountability and transparency
have only begun. Supporting the aspirations of young people, providing
solidarity to courageous political activists who challenge the status quo
and encouraging the political inclusion of marginalized women, persons with
disabilities, LGBTI persons and religious and ethnic minorities is just as
relevant

today as it was prior to the Arab Spring. NDI is just as engaged across the
region as ever and requests for support outstrip funding and human
resources.

NDI is grateful for the support from so many key partners, including the
U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID), the U.S. Department of
State (through the Bureau of Democracy, Human Rights and Labor and the
Bureau of Near Eastern Affairs Office of Assistance Coordination), the
National Endowment for Democracy (NED), the United Kingdom Foreign and
Commonwealth Office and Global Affairs Canada.

The support that NDI receives for democracy work from U.S. and
international donors has never been more essential. Such support allows NDI
to encourage more democracy and better governance in a tough MENA
neighborhood. These programs are a cost-effective way to complement
investments in diplomacy and development because if countries fail
politically, all other development goals fail -- including trade, health
and education. Small sums help stabilize emerging democracies, help avoid
military conflict and stem refugee crises that flood international borders.
Strong institutions create stronger business climates and enhance the
national security interests of the U.S. and our allies throughout the
Middle East and Europe. If there is one thing we have learned in this
interconnected world, what happens inside these countries transcends
borders and regions, especially when it comes to conflict and the flow of
displaced people and refugees.

Examples of NDI programming in MENA that have impact far beyond the cost
include:

   -

   Campaign schools to train the next generation of women political leaders
   and help women counter violence, which is exacerbated in conflict zones;
   -

   Teaching the principles of democracy and open debate to youth so they
   become invested in their country’s future instead of radical ideologies and
   groups;
   -

   Providing governance training to communities in liberated areas of Syria
   so they become stable and more resilient against extremist groups;
   -

   Helping ease tension between refugees and host countries in Jordan and
   Lebanon, where displaced persons are equivalent to one-fourth of the total
   population;
   -

   Election monitoring in Jordan and Tunisia to give voters confidence in
   election outcomes;
   -

   Parliamentary support in Iraq, Jordan, Tunisia and Morocco to encourage
   elected representatives to be more responsive to voters, to ease
   corruption, to include ethnic and marginal groups in the political process
   and to strengthen institutions in order to consolidate fragile democracies.

As a response to the youth bulge and the increasing political alienation of
young people, NDI has emphasized engagement with youth, marginalized groups
and movements outside of traditional politics and institutions. For
example, Jordan’s *Ana Usharek *(I Engage) university and school-based
youth civic education program, involves over 24,000 students from 28
universities and 330 public schools across the country, and has spawned
similar programs in Morocco and the West Bank*. *With the influx of 1.3
million Syrian refugees, NDI has implemented a program in northern Jordan
to assist communities with Jordanian-Syrian populations to address tensions
and implement joint grass-roots initiatives; to date more than 6,100 people
have participated, including over 1,100 Syrians.

Activities in Algeria include more engagement with aspiring youth civic and
political activists and nascent service-oriented civic groups -- including
an increasing emphasis on those outside of the capital. The Institute
couples this work with political party support that focuses on building
trust and facilitating communication between the political elite and
citizens, focusing on youth in particular. With a 15-year presence in
Algeria, NDI is one of the few international groups with a formal standing
in the country working equitably with the full spectrum of political actors
and engaging with new constituents such as disability groups just starting
to find a role in political life.

In addition to the new university program in Morocco -- which has seen
application rates at double the number of spaces for the current semester
-- the Institute is engaging with elected officials and community members
in the north of the country. NDI addresses the drivers of radicalization
and marginalization in Morocco, while also supporting civic groups that are
holding local and national governments accountable on promises for youth
employment, women’s entrepreneurship, public input in local government
actions and the inclusion of people with disabilities in municipal
committees.

Unresolved open conflicts continue in Libya, Syria and Yemen, causing
instability and excluding any modicum of national unity or governance.
Where the Institute has had a presence on the ground, local staffing and
partner engagement continues. For Syria, NDI continues to operate from
Gaziantep, Turkey and works on creating “democratic subcultures” around the
country by building the capacity of local councils and citizen groups
through distance learning, virtual engagement and local NDI-trained
technical advisors inside Syria. The Institute has worked over the last
several years with dozens of local councils across opposition-held Syria,
training more than 2,000 council members and staff on how to more
effectively provide basic services and engage with citizens, as well as
holding more than 1,000 civic education sessions that have reached more
than 10,000 citizens across the country.

In Yemen, NDI staff on the ground continue to engage with political
parties, youth and women, building capacity for the day that a peace
agreement brings an end to active conflict. NDI conducts dialogues with
political party leaders, youth, civil society organizations and women to
ensure that political processes are not captured exclusively by the warring
parties, militias or an entrenched political elite but are informed by a
wider variety of voices and interests. A side effect of NDI’s ability to
convene and animate discussion among diverse, often competing political
groups in Yemen is the ability to promote compromise and agreement. In
Yemen, NDI has helped:

   -

   convince political parties to stop boycotting elections in the late
   1990’s;
   -

   facilitate the creation of the first secular/Islamist party coalition in
   the Arab world in 2001;
   -

   broker an end to certain tribal disputes in Marib and Shabwa in 2005 and
   2006;
   -

   create a national political dialog in 2012; and
   -

   convene senior southern (Hirak) political leaders to discuss a common
   platform in 2014.

The Institute continues its work in Yemen by pursuing consensus among
political parties on the framework of a post-conflict political process.
The outlines of a lasting agreement in Yemen are clear, even if an end to
current fighting remains elusive: a national unity government, a

negotiation about regions and their powers and elections to re-legitimize
the institutions of the State.

In Bahrain, Egypt, Iran and Saudi Arabia, demand remains high for training
and mentoring in democracy-related subjects despite the constrained
political space. Requests for NDI’s help in these countries continues to
outstrip supply. As an example, programs for Bahrain bring together
moderates who are committed to promoting peaceful community cooperation,
and Bahrainis have embedded with Tunisian civil society groups to gain
experience. Nearly double the number of women, including several sitting
municipal councilors, applied for 30 available spots in a Saudi program and
over 250 Egyptians applied for slots in a training program implemented over
the past year.

NDI is continuing to implement regional programs to provide support to
other country-level initiatives, promote regional solidarity and create
safe opportunities for sharing and lessons learning. These include regional
gatherings and exchanges for campaign training and improved policy-making
among party activists and leaders, as well as advocacy training and
planning opportunities for marginalized groups such as LGBTI activists. To
date, NDI’s State Department-funded Regional Campaign Schools program has
involved over 400 participants from 13 countries, representing 92 political
parties and 24 civic organizations; collectively, participants report
having trained more than 20,000 others in the region. Among participants,
32 reported running for political office, with 10 winning, while another 21
reported running for other elected positions, such as in university bodies,
unions and political parties. The Institute also continues to maintain its
National Endowment for Democracy-funded online Arabic-language training
site, *Taalam/Sharek *(“Learn/Participate”), which has had more than 1.6
million visits and over 132,000 materials downloaded since its launch last
year.

In Iraq, the liberation of Mosul will require action to establish
meaningful and inclusive governance, keep regional forces that have fought
ISIS from turning against each other and avoid a power vacuum similar to
the one that originally led to the loss of the area to radical forces. NDI
is preparing for post-ISIS challenges with extensive opinion research in
Ninewah province and other areas formerly under, or vulnerable to these
extremists, to help inform post-liberation planning and the design of
conflict resolution strategies to reduce sectarian division. NDI works
across the political party spectrum to encourage cross party policy working
groups, support the formation of national, multi-sectarian political
alliances and to advocate a full voice for Sunni, Shia and Kurds in the
national decision-making process. A nationwide poll conducted by NDI in the
spring of 2017 found that a new optimism among many Iraqis has opened a
window of opportunity to advance Iraq’s transition to democracy. Iraqis’
demand for inclusive democratic institutions that deliver on citizens’ high
expectations has built a rare momentum for national leaders to bridge the
sectarian divide and develop a strong vision for the future

While restive Sunni-dominated western Iraq and ongoing tensions between
Baghdad and the Kurdish region will remain challenges for Prime Minister
Abadi, there are a number of recent positive indicators in Iraq. Abadi has
announced that national and provincial elections will be held in May, 2018
and new party formations are emerging. There are a number of new
initiatives to form national, multi-sectarian electoral coalitions, and
political moderates, encouraged and supported by Abadi, are emboldened. Of
concern, “Hash’d Al Shaabi” Iran-backed militias, formed to help liberate
Mosul and western Iraq from ISIS, show increasing signs of political
ambition and their history of human rights abuses sow fear in Sunni
dominated regions. The recent independence plebiscite in northern Iraq, an
increasingly assertive Turkey and instability

in Syria distract from the modest gains in good governance led by the
surprisingly successful Abadi.

Perhaps the unlikeliest of modest success stories in the region has been
Lebanon. Long dominated by neighbors and regional powers, still recovering
from the effects of a long civil conflict and deeply divided, Lebanon has
demonstrated surprising societal and political resilience. With agreements
on the appointment of a president and prime minister, formation of a broad
coalition government, and successful municipal elections in Lebanon in
2016, there is increasing hope – and likelihood – that parliamentary
elections will take place in 2018 to replace the current legislature, which
was elected in 2009 and has twice extended its own mandate and postponed
polls. An election would be significant; citizens under the age of 27 have
never participated in national competitions, new political forces
spearheaded by civil society have challenged entrenched political parties
calling for better governance for all citizens, and the recent grand deal
to install a government has ended the fierce duopoly that dominated
Lebanese politics for the past decade. These elections will be conducted
under a new law, which not only marked another important political
break-through after more than a decade of deadlock, but will also inject
new safeguards for voter secrecy and candidate accountability. Moreover,
polls would reassert Lebanon’s democratic leadership and the popular
mandate of governing institutions at a time when the country is surrounded
by conflict and political impasse. The Institute is currently working with
donors to secure funding and lay out plans to help civil society, women
activists and political parties capitalize on an electoral process to
ensure its integrity and inclusivity as well as build momentum for
much-needed post-election reform.

In conclusion, it is clear that the demands for freedom and accountability
did not end with the Arab Spring. But the citizens of the MENA region do
not want further upheaval and revolution but would prefer gradual change --
with genuine, long lasting reforms. The proof of this thesis is the
stability and relative success of the carefully liberalizing countries of
the Maghreb and recent improvements in Iraq and Lebanon. What is more,
encouraging and assisting democracy and good governance in the region has
positive impact for a small expenditure. The countries that have chosen the
route of reform have not generated hundreds of thousands of refugees, do
not host or allow extremist groups to use their territory and are not at
war with the U.S. or its allies. In an era of tight budgets, the U.S.
Congress can rest assured that modest investments in democracy and
governance deliver solid results. To that end, I would recommend:

   1.

   that the U.S. continue to invest in democracy and good governance
   programs in the countries that have made a long term commitment to reform
   and which have shown positive results -- including Morocco, Tunisia, Jordan
   and Lebanon;
   2.

   that countries which are emerging from conflict - such as Iraq - enjoy
   increased support for the strengthening of inclusive institutions and
   structures of governance which will help ensure that extremists do not
   regain a foothold;
   3.

   that democrats and local activists in countries in conflict like Yemen,
   Syria and Libya continue to enjoy the support of the U.S. government as
   they strive to create and sustain “democratic subcultures” at the local
   level while waiting for a national peace;
   4.

   that democracy programs enjoy multi-year funding streams that allow
   longer term investments in programs and relationships and avoid stop and go
   programs;
   5.

   that money approved by Congress for democracy programs be spent in an
   expedited fashion;
   6.

   that Congress and the Administration protest unreasonable laws or limits
   on speech, organizing or civil society activity in the Middle East and
   particularly criticize the unreasonable limits on foreign assistance for
   NGOs or NGO laws that impose impossible restrictions on activities; and
   7.

   that USAID and State Department funded democracy and governance programs
   be extended to the Gulf region with particular emphasis on encouraging the
   equality of women.

Thank you for allowing NDI and myself to share these thoughts with you