Subject: EconVue Spotlight November 22, 2017
From: "Lyric Hughes Hale" <[email-masked]>
To: "R. Hunter Biden" <[email-masked]>
Date: Tue, 21 Nov 2017 23:14:18 -0800 (PST)

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EconVue Spotlight

Dear R. Hunter,

In New York last week I heard a wonderful rendition of Paul Simon's The 
Boy in the Bubble

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Uy5T6s25XK4

at the Café Carlyle by Jessica Molasky and John Pizzarelli. They host a 
weekly jazz program I cannot live without, Radio Deluxe

http://radiodeluxewithjohnpizzarelli.com/

. Simon's lyrics

http://www.paulsimon.com/track/the-boy-in-the-bubble-6/

perfectly capture the angst of 2017 although the song was written more 
than thirty years ago. Perhaps artists are better prognosticators than 
economists!

The entertainment we enjoy says a lot about our economy. At the height 
of the Depression, movies depicted the sumptuous lives of the rich and 
the privileged. Now that mainstream entertainment has been seized by 
human scandal, newer types of fantasy entertainment are bound to gain 
even more dominance. The world of anime, manga, and video games is 
expanding rapidly and not just for children.

I walked by the Nintendo Store in Rockefeller Plaza, and decided to ask 
the people in a very long line- most of them over 30- why they were 
waiting in the rain. They had played video games as children, and they 
were queuing up for the super scarce Super NES Classic

https://www.amazon.com/Super-NES-Classic-nintendo/dp/B0721GGGS9/ref=sr_1_1?s=videogames&ie=UTF8&qid=1511237897&sr=1-1&keywords=super+NES+Classic&dpID=51kpDq7MmZL&preST=_SY300_QL70_&dpSrc=srch

, an updated version of the console of their youth. Come Black Friday, 
you will see lines for this product at Target, Best Buy, and Gamestop.

My next stop was Anime NYC

http://animenyc.com/

a convention that attracted thousands of people, many in costumes who 
love Japanese animated films. In 2017 alone, there were over 200 of 
these conventions in the US. This is a huge and growing business. Anime 
sales in the US were $3.5B in 2014, and US sales of Japanese games were 
$15B in 2013, the latest figures available. I am positive that these 
numbers will soar. The other biggest market for Japanese games, anime, 
and manga? China. The Japanese government routinely employs friendly 
anime in their communications. In the US, anime figures have replaced 
human models in corporate compliance materials.

So to end this letter as it began, with music. Back in Chicago this 
weekend I attended a video game concert for Zelda with accompanying 
video of the games themselves. The Auditorium theater was packed, with 
people of all ages but especially 20-somethings. It struck me that this 
might be the newest form of opera, and that all of this is a 
underappreciated manifestation of Japanese soft power. Serious question 
related to our productivity section below -- does all of this activity 
add value?

I'm imagining that not many of our readers play video games, read manga 
or watch anime. But you might enjoy it. I am now a Level 10 (out of 50) 
player of Splatoon 2 which I can play remotely with my granddaughter 
(Level 35). Most of you do use emoji, another Japanese cultural 
contribution, so 🍽️ Happy Thanksgiving 🦃 to you and your family. I 
hope you enjoy reading this selection of real-world research during your 
pre- or post-prandial downtime.

RESEARCH BY ECONVUE EXPERTS

Powell Fed will be Least Experienced in History

https://econvue.com/reports/michael-lewis/powell-fed-will-be-least-experienced-history

Michael Lewis

https://econvue.com/experts/michael-lewis

Compared to incoming Fed chairs over the past 40 years, Powell has about 
average policy experience. Named to the Fed Board of Governors in 2012, 
Powell will have had nearly six years of direct work conducting monetary 
policy before taking the helm.

Republicans Deal Blow to American Investors as Foreign Investors Win

https://www.econvue.com/pulse/republicans-deal-blow-american-investors-foreign-investors-win

Robert Shapiro

https://www.econvue.com/experts/robert-shapiro

Republicans insist that their deep cuts in corporate rates will produce 
waves of new investment, mainly from abroad. That's very doubtful – but 
if it did happen, it would also drive up the dollar's value against 
other major currencies by about 10 percent. Here's the rub: the currency 
changes would exact a $1.6 trillion windfall loss from U.S. investors 
holding foreign stocks and bonds -- $220 billion from retirement savers 
holding mutual funds invested abroad. But foreign investors holding U.S. 
stocks and bonds would reap windfall gains of $2.2 trillion!

Do Republicans face perception problem with tax reform push?

http://video.foxnews.com/v/5647872292001/?#sp=show-clips

Robert Shapiro

https://www.econvue.com/experts/robert-shapiro

Robert Shapiro joins the debate on tax reform plan on Fox news. Doklam 
Dispute is far from Settled

https://www.econvue.com/pulse/doklam-dispute-far-settled

Xi Sun

https://www.econvue.com/experts/xi-sun

Ignoring the Doklam issue could cost both India and China dearly. A 
concerted effort toward a tripartite resolution is indispensable. 
Diplomatic channels should be immediately deployed to reinforce a fresh 
politico-legal framework which is comprehensive in scope and yet 
unambiguous and utilitarian in intent. Taxing Consequences: House 
Republicans Target Tax-Exempt Hospital Bonds

https://econvue.com/pulse/taxing-consequences-house-republicans-target-tax-exempt-hospital-bonds

David W. Johnson

https://econvue.com/experts/david-w-johnson

Congress may or may not end health systems' ability to issue tax-exempt 
bonds. That decision will not alter the competitive landscape. In 
post-reform healthcare, capital formation is a means to value creation, 
not revenue optimization. Winning health systems understand that 
outcomes matter, customers count and value rules. Crypto Realists and 
Skeptics

https://www.econvue.com/pulse/crypto-realists-and-skeptics

Collin Canright

https://www.econvue.com/experts/collin-canright

The wild ride in bitcoin and ICOs continues, as the story woven by this 
week's links shows. I've attempted to select articles that balance the 
hype with realism and healthy skepticism. The Banking Drama

https://econvue.com/pulse/banking-drama

Collin Canright

https://econvue.com/experts/collin-canright

This week, the banking drama unfolds in three acts: Payments 
Possibilities, Regulatory Ruminations and Lending Lessons.

STORIES IN OUR SPOTLIGHT

MACRO

Massive infrastructure projects are failing at unprecedented rates

https://news.nationalgeographic.com/2017/11/mega-projects-fail-infrastructure-energy-dams-nuclear/

Keith Schneider 11/201/2017 National Geographic

The global megatrend of decentralization and fragmentation in politics 
and technology includes energy and infrastructure.

Look up: Financial red lights are flashing again

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/comment/look-up-financial-red-lights-are-flashing-again-n5mqfpbzl

Niall Fergusom 11/19/2017 the Times

A sobering read.

The world of seven billion

http://ngm.nationalgeographic.com/2011/03/age-of-man/map-interactive

3/2017 National Geographic Gorgeous map shows economic status of world 
population. The stronger the wealth gap between nations the more likely 
borders are to be strictly controlled and regulated. @simongerman600

https://twitter.com/simongerman600

This map will change how you see the world's tech titans&nbsp;

https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2017/10/map-tech-titans-unicorns-china-united-states/?utm_content=buffer0f0d1&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer

Briony Harris 10/15/2017 World Economic Forum

PRODUCTIVITY

Productivity still matters for median worker's pay

https://www.ft.com/content/a497331e-8fe8-31df-8aff-70ab584bf705

Larry Summers 11/16/2017 Financial Times

Declines in productivity are not the only cause of stagnating wages, but 
are certainly part of the problem leading to increasing income 
inequality.

The Measurement that holds economic statistics back from reality

https://www.ft.com/content/b4a4e236-c084-11e7-9836-b25f8adaa111

Diane Coyle 11/15/2017 Financial Times

A life of personal ease and entertainment is not necessarily a 
productive life. I'm not convinced that the substantial productivity 
declines we've seen can be ascribed to measurement issues. Still a 
puzzle.

Settling for Stasis: Americans use technology for comfort, not 
revolution

http://www.aei.org/publication/settling-for-stasis/?utm_content=buffer9f853&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter

Ryan Streeter 10/17/2017 American Enterprise Institute

AEI: A Facebook employee put it well: "The best minds of my generation 
are thinking about how to make people click ads."

New paper on pay-productivity link does not overturn EPI findings

http://www.epi.org/blog/new-paper-on-pay-productivity-link-does-not-overturn-epi-findings/

Lawrence Mishel & Josh Bivens 11/7/2017 Economic Policy Institute Price 
of an easier lifestyle may be lower productivity

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/price-of-an-easier-lifestyle-may-be-lower-productivity-kf7sh9ghp

Philip Aldrick 11/8/2017 the Times

Is the cost of an easier lifestyle lower productivity? Does studying 
economics make you selfish?

https://www.npr.org/2017/02/21/516375434/does-studying-economics-make-you-selfish?utm_campaign=storyshare&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_medium=social

Shankar Vedantam 2/21/2017 NPR

Students who study economics are more likely to act selfishly aka 
rationally. Or is there some sort of self-selection involved?

US

The Fed will inherit a tightening bias in 2018 as membership sheds two 
dovish members and picks up two hawks

https://twitter.com/HayekAndKeynes/status/927517711806197761

11/6/2017 the Long View Uh oh, mortgage #delinquencies are rising again!

https://twitter.com/jsblokland/status/931539411283701760

Jeroen Blokland 11/17/2017 @jsblokland

https://twitter.com/jsblokland

Not yet a trend; still at historically low levels.

U.S. crude output set to rocket, according to IEA

https://www.ft.com/content/63bd7bb0-c8b0-11e7-aa33-c63fdc9b8c6c

11/14/2017 Financial Times

Growth in US oil output until 2025 will be the strongest seen by any 
country in the history of crude markets, making it the undisputed leader 
among global producers.

How Some Small Banks Are Firing the Fed

https://www.wsj.com/articles/how-some-small-banks-are-firing-the-fed-1510223401

Christina Rexrode 11/9/2017 Wall Street Journal Bank of the Ozarks 
wanted to cut costs, so it ditched the Fed. Cities of #Chicago &amp; 
#Toronto, now with similar populations, change in neighborhood incomes 
since 1970.

https://twitter.com/Hulchanski/status/929029187268116480

David Hulchanski 11/10/2017 Twitter

Fascinating comparisons, Toronto & Chicago

ASIA

Analyst Raises Scenario of China's Takeover of North Korea, Others Have 
Doubts

https://www.voanews.com/a/analyst-scenario-china-takeover-north-korea/4060505.html

Natalie Liu 10/7/2017 VOA News

If true, I wonder how Japan, South Korea, and US citizens would feel 
about an increase in Chinese territory in the region. Cannot imagine 
that this would be bloodless: North Koreans will fight.

China's Central Bank Chief Warns of ‘Sudden, Contagious and Hazardous' 
Financial Risks

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-11-04/china-s-zhou-warns-on-mounting-financial-risk-in-rare-commentary

Bloomberg 11/4/2017 A steady series of cautionary comments by China's 
central bank governor. 'Singles Day' China shopping festival smashes 
record with $25 billion haul

https://www.cnbc.com/2017/11/11/singles-day-china-shopping-festival-smashes-record-at-the-halfway-mark.html

11/11/2017 CNBC

'Singles Day' China shopping festival smashes record-$25 billion haul- 
but how much merchandise will be returned? What China Wants From Trump

https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/asia/2017-11-07/what-china-wants-trump?cid=soc-tw-rdr

Mira Rapp-Hooper 11/7/2017 Foreign Affairs Solid essay, but don't agree 
that China has won the hearts and minds of its Asian neighbors over the 
US.

The Trump White House needs capable China hands to guide its US foreign 
policy

http://www.scmp.com/comment/insight-opinion/article/2119069/trump-white-house-needs-capable-china-hands-guide-its-us?utm_source=edm&utm_medium=edm&utm_content=20171111&utm_campaign=scmp_today&emarsys=1&sc_src=email_2069973&sc_llid=50630&sc_lid=147048618&sc_uid=Wsd1iBXJFb

Chi Wang 11/10/2017 South China Morning Post

Experienced China hands are on deck... Why China's aerospace experts 
have become Xi Jinping's new political elite

http://www.scmp.com/news/china/policies-politics/article/2092940/how-leaders-chinas-space-programme-entered-political

Jun Mai 5/5/2017 South China Morning Post Giving new meaning to the term 
high-flier, four aerospace engineers have become provincial governors in 
the past four years. What happens if China makes first contact?

https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2017/12/what-happens-if-china-makes-first-contact/544131/?utm_source=twb

Ross Andersen 12/2017 the Atlantic The next big thing for tech could be 
contact with an alien civilization. Advance Planning for Fiscal 
Insolvency

http://www.tokyofoundation.org/en/articles/2017/advance-planning-for-fiscal-insolvency?&utm_source=mailmaga_%7b20171113%7d&utm_medium=email#undefined.uxfs

Motohiro Sato 11/9/2017 the Japan Foundation Japan's hidden weakness: 
dependency of local gov'ts on central gov't funding. Japan's elderly 
turn to life of crime to ease cost of living

https://www.ft.com/content/fbd435a6-f3d7-11e5-803c-d27c7117d132

Leo Lewis 3/27/2016 Financial Times

This is eye opening. Annual pensions of under $7,000 don't go far. Open 
Doors 2017 Executive Summary

https://www.iie.org/en/Why-IIE/Announcements/2017-11-13-Open-Doors-2017-Executive-Summary

11/13/2017 IIE

Fewer Americans choosing to study abroad in China, w/their ranks down by 
9% last year. Japan meanwhile is up 18%.

EUROPE

Drawbridge economics: the Brexit reality check is coming

https://www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/economics-and-finance/drawbridge-economics-the-brexit-reality-check-is-coming

Adam Posen, 11/2017 Prospect Magazine

What will happen to Britain's economy when the insular turn of Brexit 
meets the reality of global trade?

It's pie in the sky to think Brexit talks can move on in December

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/nov/08/brexit-december-pie-sky-eu-no-deal-50-percent-britain-europe

Jonathan Lis 11/8/2017 the Guardian If you want to understand Brexit 
read this thread. Best option: UK asks to delay Article 50, otherwise 
expect a crisis in December or January. Can Germany fix Facebook?

https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2017/11/germany-facebook/543258/

Linda Kinstler 11/2/2017 the Atlantic A new law seeks to protect "human 
dignity" on the Internet.

ROW

Russia's election meddling is another American intelligence failure

https://www.newyorker.com/news/news-desk/russias-election-meddling-is-another-american-intelligence-failure

Dana Priest 11/13/2017 the New Yorker

Add this to a long string of failures-Vietnam, 9/11, Iraq, etc etc-if 
our intel services were a company, it would no longer be in business. As 
the world's melting pot, business and technology innovator, why aren't 
we better than this?

Henry Kissinger: Negotiating black majority rule in Southern Africa

James K. Sebenius, R. Nicholas Burns, Robert H. Mnookin & Alexander 
Green 11/19/2017, a research paper from Harvard University

The road from Rhodesia and Ian Smith to Zimbabwe and Robert Mugabe- the 
remarkable roles of apartheid-era South Africa and Henry Kissinger.

The true size of Africa h/t @databreak

https://twitter.com/NinjaEconomics/status/929483882696548352

11/10/2017 @databreak

Map of every country's biggest export ( What's up with San Marino?)

https://imgur.com/tzJxAtH

8/15/2017 Imgur

Cool view of the world economy. Oil still dominates.

Muhammad Bin Salman Strikes

http://www.marvinzonis.com/posts/muhammad-bin-salman-strikes

Marvin Zonis 11/5/2017 Fascinating readout of recent events in Saudi 
Arabia, led by its 32-year old crown prince.

With all best wishes,

Lyric Hughes Hale

Editor-in-Chief

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