Subject: Analysis of new National Security Strategy
From: "Liz.Schrayer" <[email-masked]>
To: "Hunter Biden" <[email-masked]>
Date: Fri, 22 Dec 2017 16:26:50 +0000

Hunter-

I trust that you saw the headlines on the Administration's first National Security Strategy - a 68-page document which has received a range of reactions - from positive reviews to critics citing the gap between the Administration's actions and the actual document, not to mention the president's speech when he unveiled the Strategy.

As an example, Senator Coons noted in contrast to the president's speech: "It is my hope that the printed security strategy reflects the direction that the Trump administration will go."

My quick take: The "America First" Strategy refocuses our national security tools (including development and diplomacy) in the lens of America's economic interests and competiveness rather than past narratives centered on our security needs. This gives us important insights for moving forward.

A back story: Several months ago, we heard the draft strategy was silent on the importance of development assistance. Without going into details in writing, I am pleased to see that development priorities were included - even if they are communicated a bit differently. This is a big step forward from some of the tougher statements this year - including the inauguration speech and the skinny budget - and as you will see below, big steps are still needed going forward.

Our press release<http://www.usglc.org/newsroom/usglc-ceo-statement-administrations-national-security-strategy/> highlights the positive statements on development and diplomacy - and below is our private analysis that I ask you to forward sparingly to your close colleagues.

I look forward to your feedback and thoughts as well.

Best,

Liz
Liz Schrayer, USGLC

________________________________
Seven Takeaways on the National Security Strategy

December 22, 2017

President Trump released his "America First" National Security Strategy<https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2017/12/NSS-Final-12-18-2017-0905-1.pdf> this week based on "principled realism" in a world defined by sovereign states and growing global competition. The Strategy is built around four pillars - securing the borders, promoting American prosperity, preserving peace through strength, and advancing American influence.

Given that some have flagged inconsistencies between the Administration's policies and the document, especially on Russia and China, what does this Strategy mean for America's diplomacy and development programs? Here are seven key takeaways:

1. America First Means Economics First
The president embraced "America First" as the guiding principle for U.S. national security, emphasizing competition and economics, asserting "For the first time, American strategy recognizes that economic security is national security." The truth is, economic security has been a part of America's national security postures dating back to President Truman, yet the dominant focus on the economy in this Strategy is a significant shift. Where past strategies prioritized the security angle - while also including the strategic importance of economic and moral concerns - this new Strategy flips the focus. The theme of economic competition runs throughout the document, setting the U.S. against a world of rising threats, framing the strategy around the principle that we will respond to the "growing political, economic, and military competitions we face around the world."

2. Civilian Tools Must Embrace a Competitive Mindset
While the tools of diplomacy and development continue to be relevant to our national security, they are seen through the same lens as the rest of the Strategy: advancing our economic interests and competition against adversaries. It states, "To prevail, we must integrate all elements of America's national power-political, economic, and military." It also praises the "mutually beneficial" results from helping fragile and developing countries that have created "profitable markets for American businesses, allies to help achieve favorable regional balances of power, and coalition partners to share burdens and address a variety of problems around the world."

3. A New "Competitive Diplomacy"
The Strategy casts diplomacy as critical to enabling America "to compete in the current environment," saying we must "embrace a competitive mindset." The section on "peace through strength" - a phrase coined by President Reagan - warns that "authoritarian states are eager to replace the United States where the United States withdraws our diplomats and closes our outposts," a recognition that drawing down America's presence overseas will have consequences for our global influence. The Strategy says the U.S. must "upgrade our diplomatic capabilities" but at the same time stresses that diplomacy "requires the efficient use of limited resources."

4. Modernizing Development to End the Need For It
In the section on "advancing American influence," development assistance is refocused as a tool to mobilize private capital and as a tool for American influence and policy. Reaffirming recent policy trends and reforms, it says development should play a "catalytic role in promoting private-sector-led economic growth, helping aspiring partners become future trading and security partners." Notably, this Strategy breaks with past administration strategies by excluding democracy promotion as a goal, underscored by the president's remarks: "We do not seek to impose our way of life on anyone," while also insisting we will "celebrate American greatness as a shining example to the world."

The Strategy also calls for "modernizing" development, which is in keeping with past National Security Strategies. Echoing comments by USAID Administrator Mark Green, the Strategy emphasizes that the "purpose of U.S. foreign assistance should be to end the need for it" (just as the last National Security Strategy said "the purpose of our foreign assistance will be to create the conditions where it is no longer needed"). There is a heavy focus on economic growth and that the U.S. should help countries mobilize their internal resources to promote growth and stability. This is part of an ongoing push toward results-based and evidence-driven foreign assistance models.

Highlighting the Millennium Challenge Corporation, the Strategy calls for foreign assistance to incentivize improvements in governance, the rule of law, and sustainable development - and identifies a few priorities that reflect recent reforms and progress:

?  Women and Youth: Reinforcing remarks by President Trump at the UN General Assembly and Ivanka Trump at the Global Entrepreneurship Summit, the Strategy recognizes that "societies that empower women to participate fully in civic and economic life are more prosperous and peaceful." It states the U.S. "will support efforts to advance women's equality, protect the rights of women and girls, and promote women and youth empowerment programs."

?  New Technologies: The Strategy calls for incorporating new technologies that can have a transformative effect on development, highlighting innovations in digital technology that can "reduce corruption, increase transparency, and help ensure that money reaches its intended destination."

?  Food Security and Health: The Strategy includes statements of support for "food security and health programs that save lives and address the root cause of hunger and disease."

5. Doubling Down on Development Finance
Despite zeroing out the U.S. Overseas Private Investment Corporation (OPIC) in the Fiscal Year 2018 budget request, the Administration has made a full pivot when it comes to development financing. The Strategy says the U.S. will "modernize its development finance tools so that U.S. companies have incentives to capitalize on opportunities in developing countries." This comes on the heels of the president's remarks in Vietnam, and is clearly part of the Strategy's broader call to shift foreign assistance from grants to approaches that "attract private capital and catalyze private sector activity." It embraces the competitive mindset, presenting American development finance as an alternative to the "corrupt, opaque, exploitive, and low-quality deals offered by authoritarian states."

The Strategy also notes that many of the world's fastest growing economies are in Africa where the U.S. is "eager to build market-based economies and enhance stability." China and Russia's competition are targeted throughout the document, including their investments in Africa "to expand influence and gain competitive advantages against the United States."

6. Expecting Others to Step Up in Crises, Fight Against Poverty and Pandemics
The Strategy takes a step backward from committing American resources and leadership to preventing and combating pandemics around the world - along with the fight against HIV/AIDS - as a key national security priority. The document suggests instead: "We will encourage other countries to invest in basic health care systems and to strengthen global health security." Past strategies have called for the U.S. to be a global leader in fighting pandemics and strengthening the Global Health Security Agenda.

At a time of growing global humanitarian crises, the Strategy says that the United States will remain a "generous nation, even as we expect others to share responsibility," saying we will "continue to lead the world in humanitarian assistance." Against the backdrop of the global refugee crisis and four famines - which go unmentioned - the Strategy states only that the U.S. will "support displaced people close to their homes to help meet their needs until they can safely and voluntarily return home."

Also of note, the strategy does not specifically mention fighting global poverty as an objective of development. Since President George W. Bush first elevated development and diplomacy alongside defense as key tools of our national security in his 2002 National Security Strategy, successive administrations have continued to define the fight against extreme poverty as a security priority and moral imperative.

7. "Show me your budget, and I'll tell you what you value."
As the old adage goes in Washington, budgets are the ultimate reflection of an Administration's priorities. While the Strategy heralds the accomplishments of foreign assistance such as the Marshall Plan and rise of South Korea as a strategic ally, the Administration proposed to cut the International Affairs Budget by 32% this year. So with the Strategy calling for upgrading and modernizing diplomacy and development to compete against other countries, it raises the question of whether or not the Administration will match its strategy with resources.

As the Administration finalizes the Fiscal Year 2019 budget request, we hope it will be guided by the Strategy's emphasis on support for investments in women and girls and new technologies, as well as foreign assistance as a tool to advance America's economic and security interests