Subject: POLITICO's Morning Score: Welcome to the on-year — Warren takes quiet steps toward 2020 run — Trump continues courting Scott in Florida
From: "Morning Score" <[email-masked]>
To: <[email-masked]>
Date: Tue, 02 Jan 2018 09:02:25 -0600
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By Kevin Robillard | 01/02/2018 10:00 AM EDT

The following newsletter is an abridged version of Campaign Pro's Morning Score. For an earlier morning read on exponentially more races - and for a more comprehensive aggregation of the day's most important campaign news - sign up for Campaign Pro today. (http://www.politicopro.com/proinfo)
 
WELCOME TO 2018 - "The top 10 Senate races of 2018," by Campaign Pro's Kevin Robillard: "[T]he GOP will be on offense in 2018. Despite a favorable political environment driven by President Donald Trump's poor public standing, Democrats still only have two real pick-up opportunities next November, in Nevada and Arizona. Texas? Too expensive to attack with so much ground to defend. Tennessee? The party landed its dream recruit in former Gov. Phil Bredesen, but Trump won the state by 26 points in 2016. ... 
 
1. Nevada - GOP Sen. Dean Heller running for reelection. Hillary Clinton only won Nevada by 4 points last year, while Trump won some of the Democratic-held states on this list by much larger margins. But a brutal political environment for Republicans - along with some potential missteps by Heller - make him the most vulnerable senator in 2018. .... 
 
2. Missouri - Democratic Sen. Claire McCaskill running for reelection. McCaskill is facing 37-year-old Attorney General Josh Hawley - a top GOP recruit who already has multiple big money super PACs lined up to support him and the backing of Trump, Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell and former White House strategist Steve Bannon. Democrats had hoped a tricky primary could trip up Hawley, but most of the other top contenders dropped out. ... 
 
3. Indiana - Democratic Sen. Joe Donnelly running for reelection. Donnelly, like McCaskill, is running for reelection in a state Trump won handily. But while McCaskill is already locked in to a one-on-one matchup with Hawley, Donnelly will get to watch three different GOP primary contenders - Reps. Todd Rokita and Luke Messer, along with self-funding businessman Mike Braun - beat up on each other until the primary in May. .... 
 
4. Arizona - Open; GOP Sen. Jeff Flake retiring. ... 5. North Dakota - Democratic Sen. Heidi Heitkamp running for reelection. ... 6. West Virginia - Democratic Sen. Joe Manchin running for reelection. ... 7. Ohio - Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown running for reelection. ... 8. Florida - Democratic Sen. Bill Nelson running for reelection. ... 9. Montana - Democratic Sen. Jon Tester running for reelection. ... 10. Wisconsin - Democratic Sen. Tammy Baldwin running for reelection ... Honorable mentions (in alphabetical order): Michigan, Minnesota, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Tennessee and Texas." Full story here. 
 
- "The top 10 governor's races of 2018," by Campaign Pro's Daniel Strauss: "Republicans hold 33 governorships, to just 16 for Democrats, heading into 2018 - but that could change rapidly next November. The political environment looks bad for the GOP, and the current governors are term-limited in a number of key states, giving Democratic candidates an opportunity to run for open seats in blue states like New Mexico and Maine. ... Republicans still have some opportunities to expand though, eyeing both Connecticut and Alaska - the only state with an independent governor - as pickup opportunities in 2018. ... 
 
1. Illinois - Republican Gov. Bruce Rauner is running for reelection. Years of strife with Illinois Democrats has left Rauner in a weak position. A Morning Consult poll released in late October found Rauner's approval rating at 30 percent, while a 55 percent majority said they disapproved of him - and the Democratic Governors Association has had a laser-like focus on Rauner for years. ... 
 
2. New Mexico - Republican Gov. Susana Martinez is term-limited. Martinez is term-limited in New Mexico, leaving an open gubernatorial race in a state that's trending blue with a large Hispanic population. Rep. Michelle Lujan Grisham is the front-runner in a crowded, divided Democratic primary. She could face a House colleague in the general election: Republican Rep. Steve Pearce, who lost a previous bid for statewide office in 2008. Martinez's approval ratings are underwater. ... 
 
3. Maine - Republican Gov. Paul LePage is term-limited. ... 4. Connecticut - Democratic Gov. Dannel Malloy is retiring. ... 5. Nevada - Republican Gov. Brian Sandoval is term-limited. ... 6. Florida - Republican Gov. Rick Scott is term-limited. ... 7. Alaska - Independent Gov. Bill Walker is running for reelection. ... 8. Michigan - Republican Gov. Rick Snyder is term-limited. ... 9. Ohio - Republican Gov. John Kasich is term-limited. ... 10. Maryland - Republican Gov. Larry Hogan is running for reelection." Full story here. 
 
- "The 10 must-watch candidates of 2018," by Campaign Pro's Robillard, Elena Schneider and Strauss: "President Donald Trump's name won't be on the ballot in 2018, but his influence will be everywhere. Just look at the types of candidates who are running: The polarizing president has lured scores of Democratic recruits itching to challenge him and his policies, as well as Republican hopefuls taking up Trump's 'America First' banner. Moderate candidates in both parties will also have to figure out how to best position themselves vis-a-vis a commander in chief loathed or loved by their respective grass roots. ... 1. Georgia state Rep. Stacey Abrams (D) ... 2. Rep. Lou Barletta (R-Pa.) ... 3.
 Former Tennessee Gov. Phil Bredesen (D) ... 4. New York state Assemblyman Anthony Brindisi (D) ... 5. Rep. Barbara Comstock (R-Va.) ... 6. Former Kansas state Sen. Paul Davis (D) ... 7. Nevada state Attorney General Adam Laxalt (R) ... 8. Mississippi state Sen. Chris McDaniel (R) ... 9. Rep. Martha McSally (R-Ariz.) ... 10. Former federal prosecutor Mikie Sherrill (D)." Full story here. 
 
NEXT UP - "The next special election that could portend a Democratic wave," by Schneider: "The congressional seat left vacant by ex-Rep. Tim Murphy, an anti-abortion Republican who allegedly encouraged a lover to terminate a pregnancy, has all the makings of the next major special election showdown. It pits Democrat Conor Lamb, a young, telegenic Marine veteran with a political pedigree, against Rick Saccone, a Trump-supporting GOP state representative and Air Force veteran with a long voting record and doubters among local Republicans. ... 'If you look at every special election to date, Republicans have been underperforming Trump's [margin] by double digits,' said Titus Bond, a Republican
 strategist and polling director for Remington Research Group. 'I don't think Republicans are going to lose this seat, but it's going to be a battle and they're not going to take any chances,' he added. House Republicans note they have yet to lose a special election in the Trump era. But their candidates have also won less than 53 percent of the vote in all four contested races of 2017, even in districts where Trump got up to 60 percent in the last presidential election. Based on that pattern, Pennsylvania's 18th District - a mostly white, blue-collar, conservative-leaning district stretching from Pittsburgh's suburbs into rural coal country - could conceivably be in play." Full story here. 
 
2020 WATCH - "Warren positions for potential 2020 run," by POLITICO's Gabriel Debenedetti: "Elizabeth Warren has spent the past year making a series of below-the-radar moves that would put her in prime position to run for president in 2020 if she decides to. The liberal hero and Republican bogeyman has amassed more money in her campaign war chest than any senator in modern history, groomed political connections with Democrats who've been skeptical of her in the past, and worked to bolster her bipartisan and foreign policy bona fides. It's part of a conscious break from the heads-down posture that Warren purposefully maintained during the first five years of her Senate career, a wide range
 of Democrats close to the Massachusetts senator and her tight-knit political operation told POLITICO. And it's representative of Warren's tricky navigation between the wishes of advocates who want her cutting a clear path to 2020, and supporters who think her best bet is to run up the score in her reelection race this year." Full story.
 
- "No-name congressmen, mayors and wannabes gun for Trump in 2020," by POLITICO's Debenedetti: "The usual early trickle of potential presidential candidates into Iowa and New Hampshire is already a full-on flood ahead of Trump's reelection bid. And in the place of the traditional assortment of senators and governors is an ever-expanding hodgepodge of long shots - from mayors to House members to state-level bureaucrats - each absolutely convinced they hold the key to kicking the president to the curb come 2020. ... It's been nine decades since the Democrats' nominee had no experience as a senator or governor. Yet roughly half of 2020's potential presidential contenders have none, and many
 are under 45 years old." Full story. 
 
Days until the 2018 election: 307 
 
Upcoming election dates - Arizona 8th District special primary: Feb. 27. Texas primaries: March 6. Pennsylvania 18th District special election: March 13. Illinois primaries: March 20. 
 
Thanks for joining us! You can email tips to the Campaign Pro team at [email-masked], [email-masked], [email-masked], [email-masked] and [email-masked].
 
You can also follow us on Twitter: @politicoscott, @ec_schneider, @politicokevin, @danielstrauss4 and @maggieseverns. 
 
FLORIDA, FLORIDA, FLORIDA - "Trump's New Year's resolution: Getting Scott to run for Senate in Fla.," by POLITICO Florida's Matt Dixon and Marc Caputo: "President Donald Trump wrapped up another private lunch Sunday in South Florida with Gov. Rick Scott, but the biggest political item wasn't on the official New Year's Eve menu at Trump International: Whether Scott will run for U.S. Senate or not in 2018. No one is a bigger booster of the idea than Trump, who rang in the 2017 New Year with private calls to the term-limited Scott and politicos urging him to challenge the Florida's three-term incumbent, Sen. Bill Nelson, the only Democrat elected statewide. ... [I]f the Senate race came up
 again at lunch, those who know the governor expect him to stay tight-lipped. It's a nod to his cautious and meticulous approach to politics, as well as his awareness of Trump's Twitter trigger finger, which could disclose a secret the governor wants to keep under wraps. 'Rick is careful and he loves the president, but he hasn't made his mind up [about a Senate bid] and he doesn't want this just blurted out,' said a Florida Republican insider familiar with the governor's thinking." Full story. 
 
- "Billionaire kingmakers swarm Florida governor's race after Trump endorsement," by POLITICO Florida's Caputo and Alexandra Glorioso: "After Donald Trump appeared to endorse Ron DeSantis' campaign for Florida governor last week, a handful of the biggest and most influential billionaires in Republican politics threw their support behind the three-term GOP congressman, upending the race in the nation's biggest swing state. The stable of billionaires and millionaires listed on DeSantis' 'Finance Leadership Team,' obtained by POLITICO, includes casino magnate Sheldon Adelson, hedge fund heiress Rebekah Mercer, investment tycoon Foster Friess and other donors who have funded the conservative
 Koch brothers' network and President Trump's campaign." Full story. 
 
RECRUITING WATCH - "Rep. Kevin Cramer Expected to Meet With President Donald Trump Tuesday Ahead of Likely Senate Run," by Say Anything Blog's Rob Port: "It's safe to move North Dakota Congressman Kevin Cramer from the 'undecided' to 'likely to run' column for the 2018 U.S. Senate race. According to multiple sources Cramer will be meeting with President Donald Trump on Tuesday this week to discuss the matter, and the indications I'm getting almost universally from Republican political circles is that Cramer will almost certainly be in the Senate race against incumbent Democrat Heidi Heitkamp." Full story. 
 
EMPIRE STATE UPDATE - "Harry Wilson says he won't run for governor," by POLITICO New York's Harry Wilson: "Harry Wilson, a business adviser who was considered by many Republicans as their best candidate against Gov. Andrew Cuomo, has said he will not launch a campaign this year. In a Facebook post, Wilson said that he made the decision because he knew the exigencies of a campaign would take him away from 'irreplaceable' time with his wife, Eva, and four daughters at a 'critical' moment of their childhood." Full story. 
 
PRIMARY CONCERNS - "Republican Jan Morgan Announces Run for Arkansas Governor," by The Associated Press: "A Republican gun-rights advocate who declared her firing range 'Muslim-free' says she's challenging Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson for the GOP nomination for governor. Jan Morgan, owner of the Gun Cave Indoor Firing Range in Hot Springs, announced plans to run for governor on her campaign's website on New Year's Eve. ... Morgan has criticized Hutchinson as someone who 'campaigns like a conservative Republican but governs like a liberal Democrat.' If elected, Morgan would become Arkansas' first female governor." Full story. 
 
MONEY CHASE - "The Modern Campaign-Finance Loophole: Governors Associations," by The Wall Street Journal's Susan Pulliam and Brody Mullins: "U.S. companies have found a loophole in state campaign-finance rules by funneling donations aimed at helping candidates through the RGA and its Democratic counterpart, according to multiple former officials. Donors can't earmark money for a particular candidate. Instead, they can simply-and legally-tell the groups they have 'an interest' in a race or are making a donation 'at the request' of a gubernatorial candidate, these officials say. An internal tracking system, sometimes called the 'tally,' allows the DGA to keep tabs on how much individual
 governors raise for the association from companies and other donors, which later helps it figure out how to allocate the money, former DGA officials said. The RGA has a similar system, former RGA officials say." Full story here. 
 
QUOTE OF THE DAY: "I didn't know him. He didn't know me." - Nevada Sen. Dean Heller, describing his relationship to Donald Trump last year. The two now have a "much closer relationship," he told the Las Vegas Review-Journal. 
 
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