Subject: The Evening: Iran, NK, Stay and More
From: "Andrew Schwartz" <[email-masked]>
To: <[email-masked]>
Date: Mon, 8 Jan 2018 23:06:45 +0000
List-Id: 833ec271d60c6750d9c3baaacmc list <833ec271d60c6750d9c3baaac.212205.list-id.mcsv.net>

The Evening: Iran, NK, Stay and More
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** Good Evening,
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It's Monday, January 8th.

** Iran Nuclear Agreement and Protests
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Iran’s top nuclear official said Monday that his country might rethink its cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency if President Trump scrapped American participation in the 2015 agreement limiting Iranian nuclear activities, as the
New York Times’ Rick Gladstone reports (https://www.nytimes.com/2018/01/08/world/middleeast/iran-trump-nuclear-.html?utm_source=CSIS+All&utm_campaign=a691001285-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2018_01_08&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_f326fc46b6-a691001285-145367789) .

And, as Reuters reports (https://www.reuters.com/article/us-iran-rallies-rouhani/in-jab-at-rivals-rouhani-says-iran-protests-about-more-than-economy-idUSKBN1EX0S9?utm_source=CSIS+All&utm_campaign=a691001285-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2018_01_08&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_f326fc46b6-a691001285-145367789) , in a swipe at his hardline rivals, President Hassan Rouhani said on Monday young Iranian protesters were unhappy about far more than just the economy and they would no longer defer to the views and lifestyle of an aging revolutionary elite.

Dive Deeper: See the Washington Institute’s “Iran's Coercive Apparatus: Capacity and Desire (https://www.washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysis/view/irans-coercive-apparatus-capacity-and-desire?utm_source=CSIS+All&utm_campaign=a691001285-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2018_01_08&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_f326fc46b6-a691001285-145367789) .”

Plus, Chatham House’s “What to Know About the Protests in Iran (https://www.chathamhouse.org/expert/comment/what-know-about-protests-iran?utm_source=CSIS+All&utm_campaign=a691001285-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2018_01_08&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_f326fc46b6-a691001285-145367789) .”

** North-South Korea Tensions
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As one sign of how fraught the confrontation with North Korea remains despite the tentative onset of diplomatic activity, consider this: U.S. officials are debating whether it’s possible to mount a limited military strike against North Korean sites without igniting an all-out war on the Korean Peninsula, as the
Wall Street Journal’s Gerry Seib reports (https://www.wsj.com/articles/amid-signs-of-a-thaw-in-north-korea-tensions-bubble-up-1515427541?utm_source=CSIS+All&utm_campaign=a691001285-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2018_01_08&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_f326fc46b6-a691001285-145367789) late this afternoon.

Dive Deeper: See CSIS’s interactive micro-website “Missile Threat (https://missilethreat.csis.org/?utm_source=CSIS+All&utm_campaign=a691001285-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2018_01_08&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_f326fc46b6-a691001285-145367789) .”

And, Brookings’ Michael O’Hanlon has a commentary, “America has military options for North Korea—but they’re all bad (https://www.brookings.edu/blog/order-from-chaos/2018/01/08/america-has-military-options-for-north-korea-but-theyre-all-bad/?utm_source=CSIS+All&utm_campaign=a691001285-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2018_01_08&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_f326fc46b6-a691001285-145367789) ”

** UK Cabinet Reshuffle
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Theresa May has appointed pro-European justice secretary David Lidington as her right-hand man, in an accident-strewn reshuffle that saw one senior minister refuse to move and another resign from government, as the
Financial Times reports (https://www.ft.com/content/eb139278-f445-11e7-8715-e94187b3017e?utm_source=CSIS+All&utm_campaign=a691001285-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2018_01_08&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_f326fc46b6-a691001285-145367789) .

** In That Number
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** 45
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In President Trump’s National Security Strategy released in December, the word "trade" was mentioned 45 times.
Source: CSIS (https://www.csis.org/analysis/trump-readies-full-trade-arsenal?utm_source=CSIS+All&utm_campaign=a691001285-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2018_01_08&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_f326fc46b6-a691001285-145367789) .

** Critical Quote
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** "South Korea's government is rather desperate to have a peaceful Olympics in PyeongChang.”
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—CSIS’s Michael Green (http://www.weny.com/story/37215458/winter-olympics-the-skaters-who-could-be-north-koreas-only-medal-hope?utm_source=CSIS+All&utm_campaign=a691001285-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2018_01_08&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_f326fc46b6-a691001285-145367789) .

** iDeas Lab
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Die Welt
A study from Beyond Parallel found that the periods when the United States negotiates with North Korea correlate with a decrease in North Korean provocations. Explore the interactive report: 25 Years of Negotiations and Provocations: North Korea and the United States (https://beyondparallel.csis.org/25-years-of-negotiations-provocations/?utm_source=CSIS+All&utm_campaign=a691001285-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2018_01_08&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_f326fc46b6-a691001285-145367789) .

The Andreas C. Dracopoulos iDeas Lab at CSIS enhances our research with the latest in cutting-edge web technologies, design, and video.

** Optics
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Die Welt (Photo credit: Mark Wilson/Getty Images.) The White House this morning.

** Recommended Reading
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“How U.S. Intelligence Agencies Underestimated North Korea (https://www.nytimes.com/2018/01/06/world/asia/north-korea-nuclear-missile-intelligence.html?mtrref=www.nytimes.com&mtrref=www.nytimes.com&_r=0&utm_source=CSIS+All&utm_campaign=a691001285-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2018_01_08&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_f326fc46b6-a691001285-145367789) ,” by the
New York Times’ David Sanger and William Broad.

** This Town Tomorrow
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At 2:00 p.m., join the Wilson Center for “Security Challenges in East Asia (https://www.wilsoncenter.org/event/security-challenges-east-asia-0?utm_source=CSIS+All&utm_campaign=a691001285-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2018_01_08&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_f326fc46b6-a691001285-145367789) ,” focusing on North Korea, U.S.-China relations, and the state of Sino-Korean relations.

** Video
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CSIS’s Technology Policy Program and Freeman Chair in China Studies hosted a discussion on the dynamics shaping the future of China’s digital economy, and implications for global trade and policy (https://www.csis.org/events/assessing-innovation-chinas-digital-economy?utm_source=CSIS+All&utm_campaign=a691001285-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2018_01_08&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_f326fc46b6-a691001285-145367789) .

** Sounds
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The CSIS Podcast’s latest episode discusses the protests in Iran and how, if at all, the United States should respond.

Listen on SoundCloud (https://soundcloud.com/csis-57169780/irans-2018-begins-with?utm_source=CSIS+All&utm_campaign=a691001285-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2018_01_08&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_f326fc46b6-a691001285-145367789) or Apple Podcasts (https://itunes.apple.com/us/podcast/the-csis-podcast/id214886950?mt=2&utm_source=CSIS+All&utm_campaign=a691001285-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2018_01_08&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_f326fc46b6-a691001285-145367789) .

** Smiles
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Last week we discussed Lou Reed, so why not David Bowie this week? I miss Bowie, his loss is so recent.

Over the course of his long career, Bowie bent so many genres of music together and created his own fantastical pastiche. I’ve been listening to his 1976 album “Station to Station” which blends American funk with German industrial rock. It’s one of rock’s masterpiece records. For me, the standout track on “Station to Station” isn’t the pop hit “Golden Years.” It’s “Stay,” an explosive piece of funk-rock. Here’s Bowie with an elegant performance of “Stay (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v86nNfvdq7g&feature=youtu.be&utm_source=CSIS+All&utm_campaign=a691001285-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2018_01_08&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_f326fc46b6-a691001285-145367789) ” recorded in 2000.
I invite you to email me at [email-masked] (mailto:[email-masked]) and follow me on Twitter @handrewschwartz (https://www.twitter.com/handrewschwartz?utm_source=CSIS+All&utm_campaign=a691001285-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2018_01_08&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_f326fc46b6-a691001285-145367789)

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The Evening is my daily guide to key insights CSIS brings to the events of the day. It is composed with the External Relations team: Colm Quinn, Sofie Kodner, and Jackie Ramsay.

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