Subject: POLITICO's Morning Score: The Democrat Trumpworld fears — EMILY's List endorses House incumbents — Ward attacks McSally
From: "Morning Score" <[email-masked]>
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Date: Tue, 16 Jan 2018 09:10:17 -0600
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By Daniel Strauss | 01/16/2018 10:00 AM EDT

With Elena Schneider and Kevin Robillard
 
The following newsletter is an abridged version of Campaign Pro's Morning Score. For an earlier morning read on exponentially more races - and for a more comprehensive aggregation of the day's most important campaign news - sign up for Campaign Pro today. (http://www.politicopro.com/proinfo)
 
TRUMP 2020 - "The Democrat Trumpworld fears most" by POLITICO's Annie Karni: "In early December, as President Donald Trump's approval rating reached a new low of 32 percent, the commander-in-chief was rating the 2020 Democratic field from behind the Resolute Desk in the Oval Office. ... New York Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand, who has feuded with Trump on Twitter after calling for his resignation because of sexual harassment and assault allegations, doesn't make these people nervous. Former Vice President Joe Biden, however, is seen as someone who could cut into Trump's base. One former White House official outlined a theory of the case that has gained some traction: Trump's policies will continue
 to be popular all the way through his reelection campaign, but his approval rating will never crack 45 percent - creating an opening for Biden, or someone like him, to recapture the loyalty of white Rust Belt Democrats who helped elect Trump in 2016. ... 'Oprah would be a problem: she'd be their best,' the strategist said. 'She's ubiquitous, she's black, she has crossover appeal and she probably clears a lot of the field out.'" Full story. 
 
GARDEN STATE - "Enter the anti-Christie" by POLITICO New Jersey's Matt Friedman and Ryan Hutchins: "On Tuesday, New Jerseyans are trading a scowl for a smile. Outgoing Gov. Chris Christie, a county-level politician and lobbyist turned tough-guy U.S. attorney, spent eight blustery years as governor taking on teachers, activists and his political foes in Trenton and beyond. Delighting in confrontation, he made himself into a pugnacious national figure, a failed GOP presidential contender and, ultimately, an ally of President Donald Trump. He'll be replaced Tuesday by Democrat Phil Murphy, a former Goldman Sachs executive whose campaign was defined by the diplomatic style he learned as
 President Barack Obama's ambassador to Germany - and whose smile is so affixed to his face that some politicos privately mock him for it. ... He'll be replaced Tuesday by Democrat Phil Murphy, a former Goldman Sachs executive whose campaign was defined by the diplomatic style he learned as President Barack Obama's ambassador to Germany - and whose smile is so affixed to his face that some politicos privately mock him for it." Full story.
 
FIRST IN SCORE - EMILY's List endorses four House incumbents: EMILY's List announced it is endorsing four House Democrats for reelection: Reps. Julia Brownley (CA-26), Cheri Bustos (IL-17), Elizabeth Esty (CT-05) and Ann McLane Kuster (NH-02). "It is more critical than ever that we have women's voices at the table," EMILY's List President Stephanie Schriock said in a statement. 
 
Q4 TOTALS - FIRST IN SCORE - NRCC raises $4 million in December: The NRCC brought in $4 million in December, according to a committee aide. The Washington Examiner reported that the NRCC raised $85 million in 2017, entering the midterms with just under $44 million in cash on hand, which is $13.5 million more cash on hand than in 2015.
 
FIRST IN SCORE - TX-07: Republican Rep. John Culberson raised just under $350,000 last quarter, the Texas congressman's best off-year quarter, per his campaign. 
 
- CA-36: Republican Kimberlin Brown Pelzer raised $180,000 last quarter, finishing the year with $140,000 in cash on hand, according to her campaign. 
 
- IN-02: Democrat Mel Hall raised $490,000 last quarter, ending the year with $430,000 in cash on hand, per a statement from the campaign.
 
- New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo will report having roughly $31 million cash on hand, according to Capital Tonight. 
 
- Clark County Commissioner Steve Sisolak will report having $5.75 million cash on hand after raising about $2.5 million in 2017 in his Democratic bid for governor in Nevada, according to The Las Vegas Review-Journal. 
 
- "Bill Nelson raised $2.4 million in last quarter, campaign says," by the Tampa Bay Times' Alex Leary: "Sen. Bill Nelson raised about $2.4 million in [the] fourth quarter of 2017, his campaign said Monday, and has $8 million cash on hand. The Democrat 'received more than 30,600 contributions from more than 21,500 individual donors during the last three months of 2017 alone,' his campaign said in a release." Full story. 
 
Days until the 2018 election: 293
 
Upcoming election dates - Arizona 8th District special primary: Feb. 27. Texas primaries: March 6. Pennsylvania 18th District special election: March 13. Illinois primaries: March 20.
 
Thanks for joining us! You can email tips to the Campaign Pro team at [email-masked], [email-masked], [email-masked], [email-masked] and [email-masked].
 
You can also follow us on Twitter: @politicoscott, @ec_schneider, @politicokevin, @danielstrauss4 and @maggieseverns. 
 
AT THE DRAWING BOARD - North Carolina legislature appeals to SCOTUS, district court for stay: The Republican-controlled North Carolina General Assembly appealed to the Supreme Court and to the district court for stays on a recent federal panel ruling that tossed out the state's congressional map, due to partisan gerrymandering. The legislature has eight days to draw new maps ahead of the panel-appointed deadline, but at present, there are no plans to do so. "The timeline for redistricting is unreasonable," Republican state Sen. Ralph Hise told The Raleigh News and Observer. 
 
- And in Pennsylvania - "Gerrymandering case sows doubt in big year for House races," via The Associated Press: "The prospect that the state Supreme Court could decide a high-profile gerrymandering case by ordering new boundaries for Pennsylvania's 18 congressional districts, including one that has been described as looking like 'Goofy kicking Donald Duck,' is sowing uncertainty barely a month before candidates begin circulating petitions. ... On Wednesday, the state Supreme Court - which has a 5-2 Democratic majority - will hear arguments in the 7-month-old case urging the court to throw out Pennsylvania's congressional districts as an unconstitutional gerrymander that unfairly favors
 Republicans." Full story.
 
EARLY POLLING DATA - PPP has McCaskill, Hawley tied: A new Public Policy Polling survey finds Sen. Claire McCaskill leading Missouri Attorney General Josh Hawley 45 to 44. According to PPP: "Senate Republicans have a terrible brand in Missouri. Only 23% of voters in the state approve of the job Mitch McConnell is doing as Senate Majority Leader, to 54% who disapprove. That is likely to make voters less inclined to send another vote for his agenda to Washington." Full results here. 
 
NEW THIS MORNING - WEB WARS - End Citizens United spends $300K to attack Heller, Coffman, Paulsen: End Citizens United is unveiling the next phase of its Big Money 20 campaign with $300,000 worth of digital ads attacking a trio of Republicans: Nevada Sen. Dean Heller, Colorado Rep. Mike Coffman and Minnesota Rep. Erik Philip Paulsen. The ad attacking Heller hits him for changing his position on legislation to repeal Obamacare, arguing donors changed his mind. The ads attacking Coffman and Paulsen ding them for supporting the GOP's tax reform law. The ads include a 15-second pre-roll Facebook and YouTube video, and a "homepage takeover" of the Las Vegas Sun on January 21, the anniversary of
 the Supreme Court's Citizens United decision. Watch the Heller ad here, the Paulsen ad here and the Coffman ad here. 
 
SHOW-ME STATE - "Eric Greitens cancels statewide tour amid affair fallout" by CNN's Rebecca Berg: "Embattled Missouri Gov. Eric Greitens has called off a statewide tour to promote a tax cut plan as he continues to face fallout from bombshell allegations that he threatened a former mistress with blackmail. The tour, which was to include events this week in Springfield, Kansas City, St. Louis and Joplin, would have marked Greitens' first public appearances since the initial report on the allegations late Wednesday. The Republican governor has acknowledged he participated in an extramarital affair but denied having made any threats. ... Parker Briden, a spokesperson for the governor, confirmed
 to CNN that the tour 'is being rescheduled.'" Full story. 
 
MARYLAND SENATE - "Chelsea Manning files for U.S. Senate run" by POLITICO's Brent D. Griffiths: "Chelsea Manning, a transgender woman who was convicted in 2013 of leaking thousands of classified documents to WikiLeaks, has filed paperwork to run for the U.S. Senate in Maryland. Manning, whose 35-year prison sentence was commuted by President Barack Obama during his final days in office, has remained an outspoken activist on intelligence and transgender-rights issues. Her case remains deeply controversial, particularly among conservatives, who criticized Obama's decision. ... On Sunday, Manning officially announced her campaign with an ad featuring scenes of Manning in Maryland interspersed
 with images of the white nationalist rally in Charlottesville and protesters clashing with police. 'We need to stop expecting that our systems will somehow fix themselves,' she said. 'We need to actually take the reins of power from them.'" Full story. 
 
STAFFING UP - California State Treasurer John Chiang has hired Preston Elliott as campaign manager and Fabien Levy as deputy campaign manager and communications director. Per an announcement from Chiang's gubernatorial campaign: "Preston brings nearly two decades of experience working across the United States, and our Deputy Campaign Manager and Communications Director Fabien Levy comes to the team with a bevy of California campaign experience, as well as across the country. And consultants from Left Hook and Hilltop Public Strategies -- including Courtni Pugh, who has had numerous appearances on Capitol Weekly's Top 100 List -- bring decades of wide-ranging combined experience that will
 push this campaign forward."
 
WEB WARS - Ward welcomes McSally to race with attack ad: Former state legislator Kelli Ward is welcoming Rep. Martha McSally to Arizona's Senate race with an attack ad accusing her of "handing over" her House seat "to the Democrats" and "pretending to be an ally of President Trump." Watch the ad here. 
 
ADMINISTRATION SPEED READ - "Trump spends Martin Luther King Jr. Day at golf course" by POLITICO's Matt Nussbaum: "President Donald Trump returned to his Florida golf course on Monday, appearing to disregard his own advice that people spend Martin Luther King Jr. Day performing acts of service for others. Trump arrived at his golf course shortly after 9 a.m., and the White House did not respond to a request for comment about his activity. His public schedule is empty and he is scheduled to return to the White House Monday night. ... Vice President Mike Pence visited King's Washington D.C. monument on Sunday to lay a wreath. Past presidents have engaged in service activities to honor the
 holiday. Barack Obama, for example, was joined by his wife and aides at the Boys and Girls Club of Greater Washington during the 2015 holiday. George W. Bush visited the Martin Luther King Jr. Memorial Library to mark the day in 2008." Full story. 
 
QUOTE OF THE DAY: "He's going to have to figure out what's best for him and what's best for the state of Missouri" - Missouri Republican state Rep. Nate Walker in The New York Times on Gov. Eric Greitens.
 
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